KZ vs Bullet Tourney game Post-mortem

[KorutZelva]

Heya... it's not quite an AAR but to discuss some of the happenings in my last tourney game.

People that have read my AARs know that I like to try something different every game even at the expense of my win-loss record ([;)]). I try to map-out as many viable strategies as possible for the entertainment of the public and the betterment of mankind ([:D]). For this particular game, I went in with the idea to make a Turkey diplo push/Sealion. Turkey is a long shot as it starts at 0% and the easier events increasing its Axis leaning reside in the Crimea, an area of low strategic value. However Turkey has a 10% chance of increasing its Axis leaning by 45-55% if there is an axis unit in London. So the thinking behind the gambit was to get them to 45% which would enable them to be within mobilisation strike range.

Bullet conducted a very aggressive air war during the battle of France which we traded some air assets. This derailed any thoughts to do a '40 sealion. Plan B however was to try Sealion after I secured Cairo. The UK decision to relocate its capital to Canada or egypt depends if you still hold both at the time Axis try Sealion. Sealioning after Cairo means you can obtain a UK surrender at Edinburgh. In preparation to my late Sealion I started as many fire as I could to drain UK ressource... Bullet made sure it would be very expensive for me and I didn't get much of a chance to increase my land unit pool much during the 40-41 period.

Below unit losses before Sealion



Going 100% on Turkey meant I was abandoning other Axis leaning countries to Allies influence. Bullet indeed initially invested vs Spain, tanking its Axis leaning then progressively transferring its Diplochit to stem the Turkish tide. I was open to abandoning Spain to its fate because i was gambling that Axis military success events (France-Egypt-UK) might get Spain support to float back above the 30% Axis leaning threshold of the 'DE 603: Entice Franco To Enter The War?'. Ultimately I got the Turkey hits I needed but Spain got dangerously low.

Diplo situation pre-Sealion



And we were off...



I had kept a low profile and it succeeded in taking my opponent my surprise. Taking London triggered the Spain Axis leaning boost (10% chance) which pushed it over 30%. But I never got the Turkey one. (booooo! [:o])

Those with a keen eye will seen that Russia was at 80% prior Sealion. I was hoping I'd get an extra turn so I could declare on them but they declared on me instead. After the fact, I went and looked at the % mobilization they get from Sealion and realized it was not realistic for me to think I could delay Barbarossa any further (10-15% on Sealion). This means all USSR unit were spared... major bad news...

In the end, I had stretched the UK elastic just enough to break it. Engagements at sea, egypt and Algeria left the Uk mostly bare of troops and I made gains quickly. The unintended effect of USSr declaring war was to keep the USA (and their powerful diplo-chits) on the sidelines a bit longer. Also meant the USA couldn't help the UK and they only declared war after the UK surrendered.



Bullet conceded after that.

But was the situation that dire?



Techwise the Axis still had the relatively comfortable lead.

but let's look at the unit count.



Even after the UK surrender the unit disparity wasn't that bad. The US retained a fair bunch of UK's land and Sea units. USSR unit pool was growing faster than the Axis one. The situation in Russia was quite precarious...



I barely have anything north of the Pinsk Marshes. The UK plunder would have helped jump start my unit production but that's a still a lot of time to let the USSR gain strength and the Axis was still very far away from the three USSR victory cities.

If I was to pin-point Bullet undoing, I think he spent to much to upgrade his ships (most of them updated to naval 1) and not enough on AA tech and unit for the UK. At game end, there was no chit invested in Advanced aircraft so it was going to get even worst for the UK air war...

In conclusion, I would like to thank my opponent for a fun game. And warmly recommend him to my fellow tourney players that like aggressive play!

[LLv34Mika]

That only shows that losing the UK is not such a big problem. It makes Russia extremely strong and the US almost immediately join the war. That only means that the USSR might be able to hold one of the three important cities and the US should be able to put a foot on European soil (or Cairo).

Sealion usually means that the Germans get a lower number of land units and an early but unprepared war in the east. That leads to a year 1941 with almost no big progress. That should allow the USSR to build up a good defense (I would build fortresses near Leningrad or west of Stalingrad).

So if you can hold off the Germans and create a stalemate position in the East there is still a chance to win the war. The only problem you might have is an Axis player who is producing many many subs with good tech. A surprise attack near the American coast can sink many many warships making the way across the Atlantic a very dangerous one.

Just my 2 cent.

Btw... how can you post more than one picture? I always get the message that I can only attach one file.

[KorutZelva]

ORIGINAL: LLv34Mika

That only shows that losing the UK is not such a big problem. It makes Russia extremely strong and the US almost immediately join the war. That only means that the USSR might be able to hold one of the three important cities and the US should be able to put a foot on European soil (or Cairo).

Sealion usually means that the Germans get a lower number of land units and an early but unprepared war in the east. That leads to a year 1941 with almost no big progress. That should allow the USSR to build up a good defense (I would build fortresses near Leningrad or west of Stalingrad).

So if you can hold off the Germans and create a stalemate position in the East there is still a chance to win the war. The only problem you might have is an Axis player who is producing many many subs with good tech. A surprise attack near the American coast can sink many many warships making the way across the Atlantic a very dangerous one.

Just my 2 cent.

Btw... how can you post more than one picture? I always get the message that I can only attach one file.

I tend to believe the game was very much in the air. It would have been interesting to see where it went because it was certainly very very off the standard script! With Spain and iraq liberating itself and Turkey hopefully eventually joining I was due to a big increase in my mpp paycheck (and minor nation units) but yeah the march east would still have been a slug with an uncertain outcome.

Don't do the 'embed picture in post' do [:)]

[LLv34Mika]

and how do I get the file into the post?
when I click on the image button to do I can't upload anything.

Or do I have to insert a link there? That would mean I have to upload my screenshots somewhere else. Did I mention that some 70year old grandpas know more about HTML than me?

[KorutZelva]

ORIGINAL: LLv34Mika

and how do I get the file into the post?
when I click on the image button to do I can't upload anything.

Or do I have to insert a link there? That would mean I have to upload my screenshots somewhere else. Did I mention that some 70year old grandpas know more about HTML than me?

yeah I use flickr. It's relatively Luddite friendly. [:D]

[room]

The situation was not to dire for allies now but as game developped, allies would have been undermanned without the UK troops. the only chance is to liberate the UK but that's a long shot, especially since USA do not have a thec friend anymore.