Frozen frogs! Stef78 (axis) Stelteck (Russia) - Stelteck welcome

[chaos45]

Only a lack of 144k thats not bad at all.

With some creative disbands and ToE setting and that low of a lack you should be able to keep the combat units filled.

[STEF78]

Turn 180, 23th november 1944

During last winter campaign, I gave some ground each week in the South. Not this time, russian army is weaker due to the loss of some units and above all, the front is far shorter

Of course, I will change my mind in case of breakthrough.

Pressure all along the frontline especially southeast of Riga



No tank corps in sight east of Minsk



reserve activation works!



No unit trapped in the South. time to hold the line.



And the OOB, russian Inf and Art are growing. German army is in good shape considering that we are end 1944.

[Telemecus]

Do you have similar OOB tables from other games as a comparison?

[STEF78]

ORIGINAL: Telemecus

Do you have similar OOB tables from other games as a comparison?

I do OOB tables on most games but in my case 75% of the games ended before september 1942 (won, lost or opponent vanished).

Only 5 entered 1944 and 2 of them were so desequilibrated early 1944 that I didn't track OOB.

2 are significants, below my game against Bobo (axis), who resigned end march 1944. He kept a strong Pzd/Mot strength but I smashed the Luftwaffe and bleeded infantry and artillery. German inf divs in march 1944 had mostly less than 10k men



In my game against Schacha (russian) AFV didn't count the same way. I suffered a huge encirclement north west of Warsaw in august 1944. The structure of russian army is also interesting with lots of aircraft and artillery.

[STEF78]

Turn 181, 30th november 1944

It's now clear that russian main effort will take place around Daugavpils. Russian stacks are impressive!



But we counterattack without fear! Heavy losses on both sides.



Just for fun, an animated fight near Minsk [;)]



And heavy defensive fights in Ukraine

[STEF78]

Turn 182, 7th december 1944

Breahthrough near Daugavpils. 3 inf div stacks are useless but is this breakthrough a threat or an opportunity?



Massive counterattacks launched...



... and russian spearheads are trapped



Heavy fights in Ukraine.



More than 1000 russian AFV destroyed



And the OOB. Russian AFV below 24k

[SparkleyTits]

Can't help but feel like this is deja vu?

[timmyab]

I think the Soviets have a reasonable chance to break through to them this time.

[SparkleyTits]

Yes but if he just stops removing 1 extra hex infront of him this wouldn't keep happening

He would rout nicely the only way possible, back to safety

[EwaldvonKleist]

Depends a bit on the fuel state/MP of the encircled tank corps but I agree, seems breakable. Two more divisions of the SS Panzer or GD category would make it safe but they are needed everywhere.

[STEF78]

Turn 183, 14th december 1944

Stelteck did it! The Pocket is reopened. and the situation in this area becomes dangerous for my units due to the strong soviet units arriving from the east...



... but I gather more units to reseal the Pocket. I let only one cav (7=9) unit behind the 47=49 stack to allow short retreat and avoid heavy retreat losses



Area around Minsk is greatly weakened to achieve this goal. 80% of my Pzd/Mot units north of the Pripyat are used to keep the Pocket safe

[EwaldvonKleist]

Problem is the Cav will most likely be moved from inside the pocket, then displacing the 47=49 one will free the units. It would be interesting to see the fuel soft factors on those trapped tank corps. Or do you only want to delay there, not force them to surrender?

[STEF78]

Turn 184, 21th december 1944

First turn under 1.11.02, I suspect an effect on the losses...

Stelteck managed to reopen the Pocket and my situation isn't looking fine... Russian steamroll is on!



... I decide not to try a 3rd encirclement and to inflict a maximum of losses



Heavy fights all along the frontline



Losses are really very heavy!!



The OOB, my inf units are suffering



And even if my mobile units look fine they are far from full strength

[EwaldvonKleist]

It seems the Panzer divisions lack men and guns more than AFV.
IMO you need to finetune your army by setting SUs/Infantry to lower TOEs so that the only free spot for infantry/artillery replacements is in the panzer divisions, that should fill them up. The very same men simply fights much better in a panzer division than in an infantry division.
Refit can then be used to direct scarce special equipment (certain AFV types) to the most elite panzer divisions.

[STEF78]

Not sure if it would be enough to reduce the TOE of inf and support units.

I will check in detail my Pzd/mot once I get the turn back

We are now in january and I'm short of 400K axis men. Below the worst TOE of my divs. Since the new patch, when the russians are able to attack with rifle corps, I'm losing more than 50k men per week...

[EwaldvonKleist]

Yes, please check some low TOE panzers.
The point is that a man in a an 85mrl/XP Panzer division has twice the CV of a 60mrl/XP one. And he is less likely to die while better at shooting, not to mention more mobile and less likely to be pocketed.
So if you have a rifle Squad/artillery shortage in Panzer divisions, there is something wrong with the army management imo.
As a first action I would set all artillery and construction SUs (not Pioneers) on 50% and all infantry except divisions with good morale to 50-60% until the panzers have rifle squads again.

Another thing is disbanding. If the GC is the same as Vistula to Berlin, construction units have a terrible ratio manpower/construction value. They were my first victims. Second are airbases and air HQs, I doubt you need more than 2 air armies and 3-4 corps. Maybe only one air army assuming you can kill them.
If the front shortens further, infantry divisions can be merged to reduce the command point need, that in turn allows disbanding of ground HQs.
Same for Axis allies if they have shortages.

[EwaldvonKleist]

Re your 50k: AFAIK their increase is coosmetic going after the change log

[STEF78]

Turn 185, 28th december 1944

Last week of 1944... It could have been worse but now it's obvious that russian steamroll is on. Win/loss ratio against rifle corps is 1/5 and as defensive victoies are worthless I Wonder id it's Worth to try and hold the line...

And looking at the evolution of the OOB of both sides I Wonder if the losses are only "cosmetic"

[STEF78]

ORIGINAL: EwaldvonKleist

Yes, please check some low TOE panzers.

In fact I'm short of everything.... except Tigers.



And if you look at this Pzd, maybe I could get some more squads but not that much

[EwaldvonKleist]

I have marked the elements that would benefit of restricting replacements to INF and SUs, assuming that armaments are not an issue.. The infantry part of your PD is at 70% only, and I suppose it will be more like 50% on your most battered divisions.

The % of available support squads also is higher currently than in the TOE, so you have a worse support squad/combat elements ratio than necessary.

Re losses, losses shown in combat reports were increased, otherwise I do not see what change would considerably increase them, maybe Nr. 13, I do not understand that one exactly.

The huge pool of Tigers shows a main weakness of the WitE replacement system, IRL there is no reason why you would not use them, either creating new units or by replacing other categories with them.