Notes from a Small Island

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Here I seem to be getting two different messages: (1) forget it - the Japanese economy has had far too much time and freedom to bring in resources/fuel; you'll never be able to really hamper fighter production at this late date; and (2) the draw on supply is so great for Japan that Erik doesn't have unlimited fighter production and might be on the verge of collapse even as we speak.

It's less about his ability to draw replacements vis-a-vis supplies and more about the ability of the Japanese air OOB (via the game engine) to accommodate the pace of those replacements.

Franks are SR3. You can't just replace a gutted unit in a day, unlike moving in an entirely new unit on the Allied side (including moving pilots if necessary).

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Based upon what I do know, I think the truth probably lies closer to (1), in part because Erik is such a gifted player. He knows how to maximize things and will have taken full advantage of everything he can. I doubt he's anywhere close to exhausting good fighter frames and pilots. I think the Allies would run out of fighters and bombers long before Erik would. I think I can fatally cripple the Allies by pursuing any kind of sustained air campaign that yields less than 2:1 or 3:1 return on the investment.

Take advantage of your Corsairs. You get how many of them again? They're the one thing that I've found, on sweeps, can handle massed IJ fighters. Even in groups of "just" 24. They tick all the boxes: do well enough against Franks/Shindens/Sams/etc.; have long range; you get a lot of them; using them doesn't have to detract from your own CAP/LRCAP/CV escorts.

I agree with Bullwinkle, sort of - not in that sweeps are a luxury you can't afford, but more along the lines of them not being necessary/only do them if it makes sense in an ancillary way (i.e., harvest a few VPs, wear down CAP for massed 4E strike, etc.). In trying to achieve air superiority for the sake of air superiority... well, I don't see the point of that.

That sort of thing may require bringing even more on the ground (and your flak is fairly deadly, combined with IJN/IJA bombers being weak with just 4x 250kg bombs at most - not even matching a B-25's payload).

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

But the clock and Victory Points begin to favor Japan if the snowball doesn't begin rolling downhill fairly soon.

I think you may be underestimating the Soviet capabilities, even without any air support to speak of. There are literally more Soviet forces in August 1945 than there are in the entire Japanese OOB. It takes a few weeks to mobilize them and rearrange, but they're nothing short of overwhelming.

Even a well-built defense can't stall them for very long at all. Maybe that doesn't get you a Major Victory, but it basically guarantees a Minor Victory in this game.

IM(not-so-H)O.

[aleajactaest10044]

First and foremost, I want to send my accolades to both Obvert and yourself, for your skill as players, as well as dedication in undertaking the game and posting AARs. For the record, I have not been reading your opponent's AAR. While I'd love to play, the sheer amount of time involved precludes my undertaking, and thus puts me in the "peanut gallery".

General thoughts...PLEASE to anyone reading...I'm not looking for a thread steal or attempting to flame...this is just for CR. I'd love to see a game of this conflict better model submarine warfare, strategic bombing, and land warfare WHILE KEEPING A BALANCE FOR BOTH SIDES, to better reflect history. I guess for me its the narrative, as I can't see the American populace idly sitting back in 1944/45, and dealing with the horrendous losses in air and submarine crews. Tactically, the Allies dealt with grievous losses in strategic bombing, with erratic returns, BUT it did help to bring the Japanese to the bargaining table. Arguably, submarine warfare did much to win the war, due to the toll taken on Japanese shipping. Once again, this model doesn't oft work well. With regard to your fighter woes right now, for example, production would have ramped up at this point in the war. It's not 1942 on Guadalcanal, where defeat was a real possibility, in part due to a paucity of resources. The American economy is in full swing at this stage.

A Question for you...

1. Would you consider playing Big B's mod in the future which has the goal of making China a more historical conflict?

[Bullwinkle58]

Hitching on Loka's post, but to CR.

He knows both sides; I don't. But, in our game, when I left in December 1944 he sent he his save to look at. It's been months, but I recall him having about 1500 Frank -r in the pools. That was on the high side of models, but he had a LOT of fighters. (obvert took over the game, so there's no OPSEC here.) They're SR3, but I was never going to shoot them down. My pools were worse than yours are.

I think you can strat bomb his aircraft industry. You persist, however, in trying daylight pinpoint raids, often without escort. He has massed fighters. The historical Japan did not. You can't do that in the game.

If you Manpower bomb, at night, and with altitudes that remove AA from the equation, I think you CAN hurt his air effort quite a bit. Fire destroys factories. It isn't choosy, so you can't be as precise as in daylight pinpoint, but you don't need to have great pilots to drop incendiaries either. He will have some night fighters, but he can't always guess right, or guess your altitudes. You will lose more B-29s than historical, but it doesn't have to be 40-50 per raid. And even if you burn up something else it's VPs.

You need fires. I'm not talking 20,000. I mean six figures. It can be done.

[Canoerebel]

When Hokkaido settles down, releasing my B-29s for other duties, I'm going to try some new strategic bombing ideas. I'll give yours a try too, especially when the B-29Bs come online in a few weeks. I'm not optimistic though. I've tried manpower bombing at night in this game with little to no success. But I promise to give it a try.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: aleajactaest10044

A Question for you...

1. Would you consider playing Big B's mod in the future which has the goal of making China a more historical conflict?

I know next to nothing about mods. I haven't kept up with them. If there's a good opponent and I'm looking for a match, I've usually agreed to whatever mod he proposes. Mostly that's meant Scenario 2 or Reluctant Admiral.

I'm glad to play whatever makes sense in any aspect of the game. I tend to lean towards mods that give Japan a boost.

[Alfred]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

My mistook, not ops losses per se but rather the write offs:

7.2.1.14 OPERATIONAL LOSSES TO AIRCRAFT

Operational Losses (or Op Losses) occur due to accidents or other untoward events that are not a direct result of being shot at by the enemy. These losses occur to squadrons based on several factors, including the range of the Mission, the experience of the pilot, and if the aircraft is flying from a carrier. Any long-range Carrier-based aircraft strikes (of two or more hexes in distance) will cause an extra chance of operational losses to be incurred. However, if a player’s base has sufficient supplies they may note that any damaged aircraft will likely be repaired before the next Orders Phase.

Op losses include planes lost returning to base and planes crashing, planes destroyed or damaged on take-off and landing, and pilots as a result getting killed, wounded, or captured.

Write offs are a new type of Ops loss for A/C. A write off may occur when a machine returns with too much damage to repair. Pilot survival rates are higher for write offs than Ops losses. It is assumed that the plane is cannibalized for parts, and thus after 5 write offs an extra plane is considered repaired and becomes available.

So while a "Write Off" is an Ops loss, an Ops loss is not necessarily a "Write Off" but some of them end up being available. I might look into this further. I think that historically, crashed planes were cannibalized for usable parts but I don't know how this is modeled in the game. I do know that an AVG P-40B did land in a rice paddy, was repaired, and then flown out days later.

All OPS aircraft losses are permanent. There is no Lazarus resurrection.

Alfred

[Alfred]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

Hitching on Loka's post, but to CR.

He knows both sides; I don't. But, in our game, when I left in December 1944 he sent he his save to look at. It's been months, but I recall him having about 1500 Frank -r in the pools. That was on the high side of models, but he had a LOT of fighters. (obvert took over the game, so there's no OPSEC here.) They're SR3, but I was never going to shoot them down. My pools were worse than yours are.

I think you can strat bomb his aircraft industry. You persist, however, in trying daylight pinpoint raids, often without escort. He has massed fighters. The historical Japan did not. You can't do that in the game.

If you Manpower bomb, at night, and with altitudes that remove AA from the equation, I think you CAN hurt his air effort quite a bit. Fire destroys factories. It isn't choosy, so you can't be as precise as in daylight pinpoint, but you don't need to have great pilots to drop incendiaries either. He will have some night fighters, but he can't always guess right, or guess your altitudes. You will lose more B-29s than historical, but it doesn't have to be 40-50 per raid. And even if you burn up something else it's VPs.

You need fires. I'm not talking 20,000. I mean six figures. It can be done.

Bullwinkle has been advocating for a long time here that the Allied focus is misplaced. If the objective is to achieve an Allied Decisive Victory as determined by the game victory conditions, he is correct.

Any Allied player who is dependent on Soviet activation in order to decisively defeat Japan has adopted an approach which guarantees that at the very best they can only achieve a Marginal Victory and even that is most definitely not guaranteed. A Marginal Allied victory is far below the historical performance and nothing to crow about.

Here the Allies have only 6 months to accomplish an Auto Victory, which is the only way to gain a Decisive Victory. Look at the VPs disclosed in post #3168. As of that date even if Japan gained not a single extra VP in the next 6 months,, the Allies need to harvest more than 80k in VPs. That is more than 13k each month. In his last game against John III just how many months did Canoerebel achieve that quantum in a game where the Japanese position and resistance was no where as well placed as it is in this game to stymie Allied plans.

Any lawyer knows what the phrase "time is of the essence" means. It applies here. Only the big VP sources can lead to a Decisive Allied victory. Those sources are Strategic VPs and acquisition of prime Japanese real estate on Honshu. At this stage consistently achieving 2:1 in air kill VPs (due to 4E providing 2 VPs each a better ratio in down airframes is needed in order to get that VP air ratio) will not suffice to bridge the VP gap. Nor will naval battles achieve such a surplus sufficient to bridge the gap. Land victories even at a 4:1 destroyed device ratio are too small to bridge the VP gap.

Alfred

[Canoerebel]

That's true, but the objective isn't to earn a decisive victory. Its to play as well as I can, shooting for the highest level of victory I can achieve without playing beyond what I feel capable of playing.

[Canoerebel]

Actually, what I just wrote doesn't capture what I'm trying to do. I have a long-term plan, and my objective is to try to carry it out as best as possible. If I do that, I think a victory at some level will be achieved. I know it'll be fun. The plan is a good one, taking chances that entail risks and carrying the promise of rewards. I think that's sufficient. I've never thought that decisive victory was attainable. I do think some level of victory is possible.

[Capt. Harlock]

However, it is not possible to produce a healthy stock of later war airframes because Japan just doesn't have enough time between the moment research ends and the heat starts. And it is those planes (Sam/Frank-r/Ki-83/Shinden) that are the most competitive in the air. Bombing those factories is essential for reducing Japan's CAP strength.
If Japan had unlimited supply for repairs, bombing out a 30-size factory would prevent the production of ~15 airframes cumulatively and the factory would've been back online in a month. But Japan does not have that supply in 45

Don't forget this is a modified scenario. The USN "silent service" has not swept the Japanese merchant marine from the seas, and long-range bombers are not cutting off the routes to the Southern Resource Area. Unlimited supply -- no. Massive supply -- quite possible. And as for time, remember the Japanese can do early research, and the game can drag on well into 1946.

[Barb]

Well my advice is to finish up the Kuriles cleaning to get safe backyard, to clear up Hokkaido with ground troops and then shift focus with your Navy on the other end of the Home Islands - you have to cut-off the flow of resources and supplies to the Home Islands as soon as possible. That means bases in Taiwan-Ryukyu area. I would possibly not go for the Japan mainland as it would allow the Japan to rail in troops quickly to stop any decisive breaktrough.

Also look around the map to pick up Point-Rich bases around the corners of the empire. With much of the Japanese Air force and ground troops occupied in Burma and Hokkaido, you should be able to pick them up one after another rather quickly. With B-29s based on Shikuka/Hokkaido he wouldn't be able to shift any major forces to other sectors.

Maybe it is a "Peripherial" war, it would bring you a lot of points (and taking bases from the enemy also lowers the VP ratio required).

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

Hitching on Loka's post, but to CR.

He knows both sides; I don't. But, in our game, when I left in December 1944 he sent he his save to look at. It's been months, but I recall him having about 1500 Frank -r in the pools. That was on the high side of models, but he had a LOT of fighters. (obvert took over the game, so there's no OPSEC here.) They're SR3, but I was never going to shoot them down. My pools were worse than yours are.

I think you can strat bomb his aircraft industry. You persist, however, in trying daylight pinpoint raids, often without escort. He has massed fighters. The historical Japan did not. You can't do that in the game.

If you Manpower bomb, at night, and with altitudes that remove AA from the equation, I think you CAN hurt his air effort quite a bit. Fire destroys factories. It isn't choosy, so you can't be as precise as in daylight pinpoint, but you don't need to have great pilots to drop incendiaries either. He will have some night fighters, but he can't always guess right, or guess your altitudes. You will lose more B-29s than historical, but it doesn't have to be 40-50 per raid. And even if you burn up something else it's VPs.

You need fires. I'm not talking 20,000. I mean six figures. It can be done.

Follow on to the follow on:

This also had the additional benefit of drawing off fighters from the frontline, as round the clock CAP over industry needs to be maintained.

Then you can mix it up with night-time low level raids on industry or airbases as you see fit. You're in range to hit everything in the Home Islands and beyond so you can really throw the IJ air force off balance.

Given that you've a good position in the North Pacific, you can even bring in your own dedicated night fighter squadrons and use them for sweeping. The Hellcat NF model outclasses just about every IJ NF airframe.

For example, hit Ominato's airbase at night at 7000ft with your B-29s. The next day, send the B-29's after the manpower at Kobe, and let your NF's sweep Ominato. Day three, go out for somewhere remote from the frontlines such as Nagasaki/Sasebo. Then rest for a couple of days and pick a different selection of targets at more or less random but with the same mix of airbase and industry targets. The bombing here is with the tandem goals of wrecking the morale of fighter squadrons and damaging industry.

At this point the IJ air force needs to bleed fighter planes to bases all over Japan for night CAP to bolster the few regular NF squadrons and then rotate squadrons in and out of night CAP as their morale gets wrecked. It bleeds is air force in a qualatitive way (even squadrons with Shindens are pretty useless with low morale), adds to the turn fatigue on his end, cuts his effective frontline fighter strength and gives you a tangible strategic beneift in terms of VP's and reduced Japanese production.

Plus, night bombing is fun.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

Hitching on Loka's post, but to CR.

He knows both sides; I don't. But, in our game, when I left in December 1944 he sent he his save to look at. It's been months, but I recall him having about 1500 Frank -r in the pools. That was on the high side of models, but he had a LOT of fighters. (obvert took over the game, so there's no OPSEC here.) They're SR3, but I was never going to shoot them down. My pools were worse than yours are.

I think you can strat bomb his aircraft industry. You persist, however, in trying daylight pinpoint raids, often without escort. He has massed fighters. The historical Japan did not. You can't do that in the game.

If you Manpower bomb, at night, and with altitudes that remove AA from the equation, I think you CAN hurt his air effort quite a bit. Fire destroys factories. It isn't choosy, so you can't be as precise as in daylight pinpoint, but you don't need to have great pilots to drop incendiaries either. He will have some night fighters, but he can't always guess right, or guess your altitudes. You will lose more B-29s than historical, but it doesn't have to be 40-50 per raid. And even if you burn up something else it's VPs.

You need fires. I'm not talking 20,000. I mean six figures. It can be done.

Follow on to the follow on:

This also had the additional benefit of drawing off fighters from the frontline, as round the clock CAP over industry needs to be maintained.

Then you can mix it up with night-time low level raids on industry or airbases as you see fit. You're in range to hit everything in the Home Islands and beyond so you can really throw the IJ air force off balance.

Given that you've a good position in the North Pacific, you can even bring in your own dedicated night fighter squadrons and use them for sweeping. The Hellcat NF model outclasses just about every IJ NF airframe.

For example, hit Ominato's airbase at night at 7000ft with your B-29s. The next day, send the B-29's after the manpower at Kobe, and let your NF's sweep Ominato. Day three, go out for somewhere remote from the frontlines such as Nagasaki/Sasebo. Then rest for a couple of days and pick a different selection of targets at more or less random but with the same mix of airbase and industry targets. The bombing here is with the tandem goals of wrecking the morale of fighter squadrons and damaging industry.

At this point the IJ air force needs to bleed fighter planes to bases all over Japan for night CAP to bolster the few regular NF squadrons and then rotate squadrons in and out of night CAP as their morale gets wrecked. It bleeds is air force in a qualatitive way (even squadrons with Shindens are pretty useless with low morale), adds to the turn fatigue on his end, cuts his effective frontline fighter strength and gives you a tangible strategic beneift in terms of VP's and reduced Japanese production.

Plus, night bombing is fun.

Can you set a sweep mission at night over an enemy base? NFs needed to be vectored to the area of enemy aircraft and use on-board radar to get close enough to see exhaust or a silhouette against the stars/moon. That was difficult enough against slow moving bombers maintaining their altitude/formation, but to try and spot much smaller and more agile aircraft and engage in a dogfight at night would be nigh-on impossible.
I haven't tried it but I think someone said it wasn't in the game code.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

Hitching on Loka's post, but to CR.

He knows both sides; I don't. But, in our game, when I left in December 1944 he sent he his save to look at. It's been months, but I recall him having about 1500 Frank -r in the pools. That was on the high side of models, but he had a LOT of fighters. (obvert took over the game, so there's no OPSEC here.) They're SR3, but I was never going to shoot them down. My pools were worse than yours are.

I think you can strat bomb his aircraft industry. You persist, however, in trying daylight pinpoint raids, often without escort. He has massed fighters. The historical Japan did not. You can't do that in the game.

If you Manpower bomb, at night, and with altitudes that remove AA from the equation, I think you CAN hurt his air effort quite a bit. Fire destroys factories. It isn't choosy, so you can't be as precise as in daylight pinpoint, but you don't need to have great pilots to drop incendiaries either. He will have some night fighters, but he can't always guess right, or guess your altitudes. You will lose more B-29s than historical, but it doesn't have to be 40-50 per raid. And even if you burn up something else it's VPs.

You need fires. I'm not talking 20,000. I mean six figures. It can be done.

Follow on to the follow on:

This also had the additional benefit of drawing off fighters from the frontline, as round the clock CAP over industry needs to be maintained.

Then you can mix it up with night-time low level raids on industry or airbases as you see fit. You're in range to hit everything in the Home Islands and beyond so you can really throw the IJ air force off balance.

Given that you've a good position in the North Pacific, you can even bring in your own dedicated night fighter squadrons and use them for sweeping. The Hellcat NF model outclasses just about every IJ NF airframe.

For example, hit Ominato's airbase at night at 7000ft with your B-29s. The next day, send the B-29's after the manpower at Kobe, and let your NF's sweep Ominato. Day three, go out for somewhere remote from the frontlines such as Nagasaki/Sasebo. Then rest for a couple of days and pick a different selection of targets at more or less random but with the same mix of airbase and industry targets. The bombing here is with the tandem goals of wrecking the morale of fighter squadrons and damaging industry.

At this point the IJ air force needs to bleed fighter planes to bases all over Japan for night CAP to bolster the few regular NF squadrons and then rotate squadrons in and out of night CAP as their morale gets wrecked. It bleeds is air force in a qualatitive way (even squadrons with Shindens are pretty useless with low morale), adds to the turn fatigue on his end, cuts his effective frontline fighter strength and gives you a tangible strategic beneift in terms of VP's and reduced Japanese production.

Plus, night bombing is fun.

Can you set a sweep mission at night over an enemy base? NFs needed to be vectored to the area of enemy aircraft and use on-board radar to get close enough to see exhaust or a silhouette against the stars/moon. That was difficult enough against slow moving bombers maintaining their altitude/formation, but to try and spot much smaller and more agile aircraft and engage in a dogfight at night would be nigh-on impossible.
I haven't tried it but I think someone said it wasn't in the game code.

Both regular and night fighters can perform the sweep mission at night. Obviously the dogfight won't be the same intensity as a daylight fight, but it's something. Again, the purpose isn't to neceissarily kill planes, but killing group morale is a worthwhile goal as well.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

When Hokkaido settles down, releasing my B-29s for other duties, I'm going to try some new strategic bombing ideas. I'll give yours a try too, especially when the B-29Bs come online in a few weeks. I'm not optimistic though. I've tried manpower bombing at night in this game with little to no success. But I promise to give it a try.

Go in at 7K to avoid the balloons. You'll lose some to NCAP and some to flak, but it will still be worthwhile.

Going in higher is just asking to get disrupted/shot down by NCAP (and to some extent to regular flak) at just the same rate, but for worse results.

Don't go for Tokyo, Osaka, etc., right away. You'll figure it out, I'm sure.

[Lokasenna]

Night fighters can allegedly sweep, but I'm not sure I ever got any of them to ever fly. Likewise for nighttime LRCAP, at least in terms of effectiveness.

ORIGINAL: Alfred


Only the big VP sources can lead to a Decisive Allied victory. Those sources are Strategic VPs and acquisition of prime Japanese real estate on Honshu. At this stage consistently achieving 2:1 in air kill VPs (due to 4E providing 2 VPs each a better ratio in down airframes is needed in order to get that VP air ratio) will not suffice to bridge the VP gap. Nor will naval battles achieve such a surplus sufficient to bridge the gap. Land victories even at a 4:1 destroyed device ratio are too small to bridge the VP gap.

Which is actually an argument for not worrying about the immediate, first-order VP specifics of air or naval losses.

It's about what they get you. Losses aren't in a vacuum. If you lose 300 planes in a day vs. only 150 for Japan so that you can capture Sapporo, is it worth it? I'd argue yes. If you lose 1200 vs. 600 to capture all of Hokkaido (and the associated LCU destruction VPs), is it worth it? Yes again.

[MBF]

FWIW - I have fair luck with night sweeping in early 45 with Allied night fighters vs the AI - not large amounts but a couple here and there every few days

[Canoerebel]

I've never had a Night Fighter squadron fly a sweep or strafe mission. Not one.

[MakeeLearn]

At one target, is it better to send each night bomber squadron in at a different altitude or all at the same?
Of course there will be various results with each night, but over all.

[JohnDillworth]

Another comment from peanut gallery on fighters. Your opponents performance has dropped off in last few turns. Same air-frames so it might be pilot fatigue or bad rolls or a change in tactics. It might also be he is low on good pilots. I expect it's a bit of everything. Anyway. A reduction in action for a spell will allow him to train pilots. I suspect you might be in a similar position