Notes from a Small Island

[Canoerebel]

When I stepped in effective March 1, 1944, the first decision made was to re-orient the Allies. Joseph had a massive concentration in SWPac, around Rabaul and Milne Bay and vicinity. It seemed the Allies were pretty far behind and needed to close with the Home Islands. So the Allies invaded Sikhalin Island (successfully, but it was a close thing!) in June. I thought that put the Allied air force in position to efficiently take the war to the northern Home Islands. In the real war, that would've been the case. In a game against a newbie, that would've been the case. But in a game against a player like Erik it wasn't even close.

For about a half year, I tried everything I could think of: daylight bombing, nighttime bombing, various altitudes, various targets, naked or escorted, many targets or just one, my orders or commander discretion (only a few of those missions tried), sweeps high or low or mixed or middle, etc. There were some successes but by and large I learned that Erik had the kinds of fighters, the kinds of pilots, and the quantity of flak to make the endeavors prohibitively expensive. Allied bomber and fighter losses were high and the pools were far to slim by early '45 to keep on doing what I was doing. Even the P-47N couldn't handle what he had!

When it became clear the Allies weren't in a position to double the score in the first half of 1945, I decided it was better to proceed with things that were efficient and to (mostly) stand down the things that were inefficient until I could change the paradigm. There was still a lot of fighting going on, but mostly it was to keep Erik on his toes while putting the Allies into position to efficiently score points. The Allies managed to take SE Asia and to land in China, so there were some gains. But time passed and it seemed like the Allied lead was only creeping along. Yet, I think in the end the Allies will achieve victory more quickly than if I'd try to go toe-to-toe with Erik, battering my way to victory. Recent carrier sweeps vs. Nagasaki combined with LBA, plus the quick fall of Luzon, were the kinds of successes I was working for. With the Russians active, with the Allies ashore in strength in China and about to add to that number significantly, with Singapore possibly in order, and with DS soon to be available for full-time offensive duty around the Home Island, I think the Allied lead will increase steadily now.

[Canoerebel]

8/5/45 to 8/7/45

Singapore: The crossing shock-attack should take place tomorrow. I don't really know what to expect. I'm a bit concerned that Erik will have combat ships available to bombard, as time goes on. To address the possibility, more strike aircraft were moved forward to Johore, with B-29s ordered (again) to hit Palembang's airfield at night. That's the only airfield he has in the vicinity to provide LRCAP to his ships. I think I'm sorta optimistic about the prospects at Singers, to become a medium-term matter, but my feelings of optimism sometimes have no basis in cold, hard fact.

The Herd: A mass of Allied merchantmen are two days into loading a big, big army at Haiphong. It's probably going to take four days total. Then the mass will move to Taichow to unload (it may drop off 2nd Marine Division on Formosa en route). DS is on patrol near Hainan Island.

Luzon: All enemy units eliminated at Manila. Two small IJ units left on the island - one at Clark, one at Bataan. The Allies have taken Roxas and Iloilo, plus several other islands. Most of the army will rest at Manila, waiting for pick-up and the invasion of Formosa, probably at least three weeks off.

China: All quiet. Erik never did get frisky against the Allies while DS has been away, even though the Allied army was reduced considerably to provide the troops for the Luzon invasion.

Russia: The Russian army is advancing slowly but steadily without serious opposition to this point. Paratroops have taken advanced bases. Erik has 300 fighters at Chingchow. He's gonna hammer my forward guys at some propitious moment when Russian AA hasn't quite caught up.

Strategic Bombing: I think he's reconfigured his fighter priorities and is awaiting the atomic bombs. Those won't be dropped until DS is back on station, contributing the fighters needed to sweep his big bases.

[HansBolter]

Of course since my game is against the AI it can't truly be used ad an example for yours, but on the one very disappointing atomic bomb drop I made on Tokyo, I held back for the longest time over fears that the mission wouldn't get through the 500 fighters stationed there since I was out of fighter escort range and have restricted strategic bombing to night missions.


When I did decide to pull the trigger, I was extremely surprised to see no interception of the unescorted single squadron mission.
It flew in unopposed at 30K feet.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, Hans. That's helpful information. I'd take that to mean I could order the strike at any time, but I suppose I'll wait a bit. I really want to see how the next phase goes - coordinated strat bombing for days or weeks. Is Erik's fighter corps so strong that my pools can't sustain the effort, or have the Allies reached the point (from a proximity standpoint and quality standpoint) that there's a noticeable trend favoring the Allies? Probably in about a month, I'll finalize A-Bomb plans.

[uncivil_servant]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Like most house rules it was proposed in good faith to address a perceived problem but had troublesome, nettlesome, unintended consequences.

The house rule is highly disadvantageous to the Allies. Knowing that the threat of night bombing against his airfields and ports is small, Erik can reduce his night fighters at any particular base, therefore having enough to spread all over the place. As a result, the threat of meaningful Allied night air strikes against a port or airfield in the Home Islands (and a few other select places) is basically nil. Fifty bombers on night missions of that kind are basically useless against flak and a few enemy fighters on CAP. If I had 50 B-29Bs set on night attack against Gifu's airfield, I'd lose more bombers than I'd destroy fighters on the ground. Ditto every other base of consequence.

So I only use these missions against bases unlikely to be well-defended. In recent weeks, night missions vs. Manila, Takao, Balikpapan and Soerabaja airfields or ports have been quite successful. But Erik is withdrawing into the Home Islands, as I noted above, so these opportunities will soon vanish.

This rule, combined with the rule against strategic bombing in China, helped Erik a lot. But they are what they are. We're so late in the game now that it's fine leaving them as is. Let's see how things wind down as the year winds down.

I just think you negotiated away so many advantages. Because the game engine.. may.. not be 100% accurate even if you ignore r/l ability to flip to incendiaries and night radar.. at the same time japan can magically transform rice and bananas into aluminum and their magically increased oxygen manufacturing program for high level flying for their 100 times reality sized air force. (ophh.. and the magic robots they get to build all the stuff as we all know they NEVER had a manpower shortage.. whistling).

He wants you to limit them to what happened in real life then he should oppose with real life numbers. You switched to night bombing for necessity, as the US is outnumbered by the IJ air-force. Let's have that sink in.. a manpower and resource poor nation with a GDP of under 200 outproduces the nation closing on 1500. That and the magical oil and fuel railroad allowing tanking from NE asia to the Home Islands not the longer trek to and from the oil producing areas.

All the house rules proposed seem to affect allies usage of their available materials.
You think he would have approved to modify the totally illogical way the game engine can ship oil/fuel to the NE by keeping the little Chinese base manned with a single Chinese unit to "break" the magical railroad would he have approved it? Honestly ask yourself if he would have agreed to that rule limiting his economy benefiting from the game engine versus your agreeing to limit your air force based on the game engine.

[uncivil_servant]

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

Of course since my game is against the AI it can't truly be used ad an example for yours, but on the one very disappointing atomic bomb drop I made on Tokyo, I held back for the longest time over fears that the mission wouldn't get through the 500 fighters stationed there since I was out of fighter escort range and have restricted strategic bombing to night missions.


When I did decide to pull the trigger, I was extremely surprised to see no interception of the unescorted single squadron mission.
It flew in unopposed at 30K feet.

I would hope it was because IRL the A-bomb bombers were modified to fly at a altitude higher than normal for b-29s and above anything a fighter of the time could reach - as well as keeping the bomber as far away from the explosion as possible, hence no interception

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: uncivil_servant

I just think you negotiated away so many advantages..... ...

I didn't negotiate the House Rules. I stepped in for Joseph in 1944. He had stepped in for Historiker some time prior thereto. So I'm the grandson of the negotiator.

I'm not concerned about the rule. It's been in place since the game started. It'll be taken into consideration, at least in my mind, when I evaluate how I feel about how I did in the game.

We willingly give the Japanese player concessions to make the game more enjoyable for them, so that we Allied players can still find fun opponents willing to endure '44 and '45. In the evolutionary scheme of things, the balancing is still young. We may find that the concessions have been too much or not enough or, if we're very lucky, just right. I think Erik's House Rules are quite helpful to Japan, but that means I get to tinker with 1945 aircraft and ships and units, so it's fun even while being challenging and at times frustrating.

[BillBrown]

Just so everyone understands a bit, these are the original house rules from Erics first post in his AAR, started in 2012, 7 years ago.
Perceptions were different then and there have been a number of patches since then that may have changed the need for these.

No Night bombing at less than 50% moonlight
Max sweep at second best maneuver band.
No Strategic bombing in China by either side for the entire war.

PPs to be paid to change a restricted unit to an unrestricted command before marching accross a border.
Thai units can move into Burma and Malaya.
Chinese units can be given orders on the first turn.
A Chinese 'Reservation' in the central four cities until 1/44 should the rest of China collapse.

One CV portstrike on turn 1.
Allies can only give orders to existing TFs on turn 1. Force Z may be re-directed.
Invasions on hexes that don´t contain a dot or base are allowed.

No (other nation) Allied air or naval units in Russia are allowed, even if Russia is activated.

Notice that it does not seem that all of these house rules are in effect.

That said, when you take over a game you have house rules in effect and while you can negotiate them somewhat, you
tend to be stuck with most of them. It is what it is. And as CR has stated, he is willing to abide by the house
rules and proceed on with the game. I do not think it is up to the peanut gallery to chastise either player for the
decisions they make.

[Canoerebel]

I don't recognize some of those House Rules! To my knowledge, there's no maneuver band rule nor moonlight rule nor anything about a Chinese "reservation" (when I stepped in, the entire Chinese army was at Karachi, of all places!). At least, that's the way I've been playing it since 3/1/44.

[BillBrown]

I do know that Joseph and Erik negotiated the house rules, but I have no idea what changed at that point. I think the main point is that as long as you and Erik are happy with the house rules,
or at least are willing to abide by them, then we as the peanut gallery should not criticize them. I personally do not like any house rules, but that is me and if that limits who will take me
on in a game, so be it.

[Canoerebel]

Erik and I are fine with the House Rules, so far as I know. At least, I am.

I agree with you. House Rules are bad things. Too many unintended consequences, unfunded mandates, devil in the details, slippery slopes, and twilight zones.

[Canoerebel]

8/8/45

Singers: An awesome crossing shock attack, as you might expect. The Allied army of 7k AV, 100% prepped, Army and Corps HQs 100% prepped with top-notch leaders, well-rested, fully supplied, modern equipment, shock attacks. With all those taken into consideration, the adjustment should be something like 5x upwards! Huzzah! Indeed, the adjustment is a factor of 5x....downwards! The adjusted AV is 1,500....against 10k for the Japanese (which is about what I expected). The resulting 1:6 attack doesn't drop 6 forts and does ugly things. The Allies lose 500 squads with 2k disabled (that's just the combat squads). The Japanese lose 100 squads with 400 disabled.

How can 7k AV, with all those terrific multipliers, go from a 5x adjustment upwards to a .25x adjustment upwards?

Yuck. My battered army will take awhile to rest. The air force will continue to do it's work.

I'll post the screenie tomorrow afternoon, after I return from a hike in the mountains. It's late and I'll be arising at 4:30 a.m.

[CaptBeefheart]

Ouch on Singers.

I agree with Bill on house rules. If the players are happy, who are we to gripe?

Cheers,
CB

[Canoerebel]

From where I'm sitting, there doesn't seem to be any angst about anything. Y'all must be seeing some kinda carnage in Erik's AAR.

[Canoerebel]

8/8/45

I'm up way too early, preparing to head to the Cohutta Wilderness Area today on a reasonably short 10-mile hike. Having had a good but short night's rest, I'm glad to say that the combat report is...even worse than my initial glance last night. But that was an abbreviated glance, as who wants to spend time at a feature flick in which Phyllis Diller is the leading actress when Ingrid Bergman is on another screen?

Singapore: Yikes, look at the engineers slaughtered! This looked like a pretty good set-up, as best I could tell. But the math eludes me. In a few weeks, I'll bring over some big ships to handle bombardments and such. Eventually, if the war lasts long enough, supply should become an issue for Erik's stout men. It might be two months before I chance another attack. [X(]

China/Indochina: Loading of the big army is proceeding well at Haiphong, though it's going to take at least two more days to get everybody aboard and squared away. This army of about 4k AV is bound for China. The difference maker is that it includes a score big AA units. I think that will allow the Allies to proceed with a ground campaign in the open terrain. I think it may be better to go up into the open terrain, not far south of where the Soviets will be in a month, rather than first taking on Shanghai. More progress can be made coordinating with the Soviets up where enemy fortifications might not be quite so impressive.

[HansBolter]

I had similar results at Singapore in my game.

It made me wonder if a better approach might be to cross with half the force ready, taking the huge hit on a smaller force and crossing later with the other half, that won't be forced into a mandatory shock attack.

This might lead to an even more heavily damaged crossing force, but the follow on forces would be ready sooner for a deliberate attack.
The devastated early crossers, having established the beachhead for the follow on forces, can then be withdrawn across the straits to recover.

After my horrendous crossing I did end up pulling divisions out to facilitate faster recovery.

In this approach the engineers would be held back to cross in the follow up wave, basically writing off any opportunity to reduce forts with the crossing, but saving the engineers for the follow up deliberate attack.

I'm determined to give this approach a try in my next game.

[BBfanboy]

+1 to Hans' analysis. The follow-on troops for the second crossing need only be delayed by one day in starting their march so they will arrive before the enemy can counterattack the shattered first wave.

Looking at the numbers, you still have a 2:1 advantage in troops and AV after deducting your losses. And a lot of his troops appear to be base forces. I think if you can withdraw the hardest hit units to recover in Johore Bharu you should be ready to go in a month.

[Canoerebel]

From my post a ten turns back: 7/30/45

Singapore: Allied units are still arriving in strat mode. The last contingent will arrive in about two or three days. Then comes the decision whether to attack and, if so, whether to commit all troops to the crossing or just a portion (probably 50%).

The only forumite who chimed in was Barb, who kindly recommended an all-out commitment (and I appreciate his good faith effort to be helpful).

Where were you guys when I needed you? [:'(]

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

From my post a ten turns back: 7/30/45

Singapore: Allied units are still arriving in strat mode. The last contingent will arrive in about two or three days. Then comes the decision whether to attack and, if so, whether to commit all troops to the crossing or just a portion (probably 50%).

The only forumite who chimed in was Barb, who kindly recommended an all-out commitment (and I appreciate his good faith effort to be helpful).

Where were you guys when I needed you? [:'(]

I was considering chiming in but never having actually done the crossing I felt I didn't have the tested goods to offer.

If it helps, I use the partial landing to put poorly prepped troops on unoccupied islands/atolls so that only a few troops suffer the landing penalty. Once the base has flipped the surf seems to get much gentler! An APD full of combat squads is a good way to do such a landing.

[Canoerebel]

That makes sense.

On a separate note, my hiking companion had to change our itinerary today. We diverted to an "up and down section with no steep climbs, totaling 9.5 miles." It was unusually cool for Georgia in June (lows in the high 40s, highs in the 70s up there), so I'm thinking, "Easy." Instead the hike turned into 12.0 miles of constant steep uphills and downhills. I was (and am) utterly gassed. The payoff? Lawn mowing time tomorrow. [8|]