Notes from a Small Island

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Strat Points 10/20/45: 16,778
Strat Points 10/21/45: 17,660

Hey, the raid scored 900 points (gross), about 800 points (net). So nighttime missions at altitude are worth doing.

Future raids won't be as successful, because most of Dave's major bases have more flak. This one had a lot of night fighters, but he'll switch even more over as soon as he figures out what I'm doing.

Still, there's room to work with here.

Meant to follow up sooner and make the point that the measely 67k fires in my posted example is not about what can be accomplished with a single raid, but an example of what I had been doing 7 out of every 10 days for over 16 months.

Strategic bombing is all about sustained effort.

[BBfanboy]

Hans, several people have posted that they have never seen a point of industry actually destroyed by fires. I am sure I did back when I played a Downfall scenario about five years ago, so it is possible that has changed. What is your experience with this? Are the fires just putting more industry in the damaged column or do some actually evaporate from the count?

[Canoerebel]

11/1/45 to 11/5/45

The Enemy Stirs: After snoozing, utterly, for more than nine months, Erik is taking some interest in the game. Mass IJ bombers from the Home Islands hit a major Allied base on Hokkaido, destroying nearly 200 aircraft (mostly 4EB, mostly B-19Gs) on the ground. He's been sniffing around Allied shipping activities between Formosa and China, and down in the DEI. On the 5th, a bunch of 1EB and 2EB sortied, a lot of them getting chewed up by LRCAP, but one package finding an unprotected transport TF in the Java Sea, sinking a few APDs and damaging a few other ships. I think Erik's other two games have slowed considerably, so that he has more time and interest in this one. And the very late date now probably has him intrigued as to just how much he can do to stymie Allied efforts.

The Allies: Allied armor has attacked at Shanghai three times in the past two weeks. The first time, the IJ adjusted AV was 28k; time two it was 16k; time three it was 12k. Tomorrow, a general attack, including the infantry. It will be tough on the Allied units but should indicate if the defenders are teetering. I think they are. I think there's a decent chance Shanghai falls in November.

Allied armies are moving inland from coastal China and also inland from Nanking. I think Erik has lots of units in good defensive positions in the interior. I don't expect to reach, much less take, Chungking this year. But the push will continue, both for secondary bases and to await opportunities.

Strategic bombing (mostly nighttime vs. Manpower) is going well; tonight, all nighttime 4EB will hit Gifu aircraft factories. This is unusal - Gifu doesn't have Manpower; and it's very hard to score hits vs. specific aircraft factories; but it isn't impossible. I think Erik doesn't have much flak or CAP, due to the lack of Manpower, so we'll see if the raid succeeds.

DS Corsairs swept Nagasaki today with good results. More tomorrow, augmented by P-47Ns from Korea.

Erik has concentrated his fighters at certain key bases: Nagasaki (half destroyed), Osaka (half destroyed), Tokyo (pretty untouched), Yokahama (modestly damaged), Hiroshima (pristine) and Kobe (minor damage). He has 1k+ at Osaka.

FInally, finally, finally the second A-Bomb is ready. The target tomorrow is Tokyo Heavy Industry. There's lots of it, so the hope is that it'll be susceptible to damage.

Allies still seem to be on track to have a 40k to 60k lead by the end of the year.

[Canoerebel]

The 1EB and 2EB attacks in the DEI today were kamikazes. That's the first concentrated use of them thus far. But the raids were counterproductive, as considerably more aircraft points were lost than gains for ships sunk.

[Gridley380]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

FInally, finally, finally the second A-Bomb is ready. The target tomorrow is Tokyo Heavy Industry. There's lots of it, so the hope is that it'll be susceptible to damage.

I am *NOT* an expert on the use of A-bombs, so this is just a question: why HI and not manpower?

[Canoerebel]

The first atomic bomb targeted Tokyo Manpower and did poorly - 4k points. It destroyed (not damaged) most of the Manpower, which is relatively modest anyhow (120 points?). It also destroyed a few other industrial points, but not not much. It did not set raging fires that might've led additional damage, as I had expected.

Rather than target the modest Manpower totals at another base, I think it's worthwhile to target HI, which has more than 1000 points at Tokyo. If an atomic bomb doesn't set fires, the next best thing is to target the biggest general industry around. If that hypothesis works, the points scored should be much higher than the 4k for the first bomb (IE, 50% damage to 1,000 HI points will generate far more points than the 90% damage to 120 Manpower). If the hypothesis turns out to be flawed, I'll have learned something for the next game.

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Hans, several people have posted that they have never seen a point of industry actually destroyed by fires. I am sure I did back when I played a Downfall scenario about five years ago, so it is possible that has changed. What is your experience with this? Are the fires just putting more industry in the damaged column or do some actually evaporate from the count?

Can't confirm one way or the other as it is not something I have looked for.

How would I know?

Only thing reported to me is quantity damaged and quantity functional.

I would have had to have recorded what the total was before I started bombing to know if the sum of damaged and functional still equals that number.

[HansBolter]

You have had abysmal die rolls on your A-Bomb production.

I dropped one early on and forgot about them for a good while.

In February '46 I have 8 in my inventory.

I realized on Feb 20th that my armies were one day out of entering Tokyo and I still had not dropped my second bomb, so I ordered it in for the 20th but it didn't fly.

Was fine with letting my troops enter the hex on the heals of an atomic bomb detonation on the same turn it would have dropped, but won't use it on a hex my guys are already occupying.

Looks like Sapporo will get the second bomb if I can get it to fly.

[Canoerebel]

No player has reported achieving a fire storm or destroying (as opposed to damaging) industry, absent atomic weapons.

I've set more than 400k fires in a turn several times, I think all against John III. No firestorms, no destruction. I think I've read of other players getting up into the 800k range or even more. And I have fuzzy memories of 1 million+.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

No player has reported achieving a fire storm or destroying (as opposed to damaging) industry, absent atomic weapons.

I've set more than 400k fires in a turn several times, I think all against John III. No firestorms, no destruction. I think I've read of other players getting up into the 800k range or even more. And I have fuzzy memories of 1 million+.

I did briefly get over a million in fires at Osaka during my Downfall game against the AI (flak was weak and night fighters almost non-existent in the game version back in those days (at least 7 years ago).

[Canoerebel]

11/6/45

A-Bomb: Targeting Tokyo HI, the second atomic bomb is fairly successful, scoring about 9k points. It may take a day or two for the damage to register, then I'll post before and after screenies of Tokyo.

Points: The Allied lead jumped from 34k to 43k (my first quick calculation came up with 31k, and I briefly thought I had lost points somehow). The Allies now have 29k strategic points. There were large raids vs. Hachinoe Manpower by Flying Forts, that did pretty well against no opposition (60k fires set, but it isn't a sexy target). The nighttime raids targeting Gifu aircraft factories did "okay." Most of a Sam factory was shut down, and half an Oscar factory plus a few more hits here and there. Overall, this is a very inefficient way to score points. And Erik surprises by having quite a few nightfighters on CAP.

Shanghai: First general deliberate attacks comes off at 1:3, drops forts to 6, finds the adjusted enemy AV at 11k, and does about 3k casualties vs. 5k suffered (but the squads destroyed comparison is pretty encouraging). I can't imagine Shanghai will last the month, and there are more Russian units, especially artillery, inbound.

DS Sweeps: Corsairs sweep en masse but the enemy CAP doesn't stick around long. This turn, 200 fighters swept, scoreing 20:2 in kills. But the fighting only lasted moments. Erik may be using a patented "low aggression commander" approach. I don't know how to counter that, but it's okay, as I don't wish to deplete DS fighter strength. LBA pools are meager, so I have to maintain a strong DS contingent, as more fighting is to come before the end of the year.

[Canoerebel]

I ought to post in this AAR, too, that Erik is also a fine opponent. He doesn't flip turns, because he has three games going, he's busy, and he's a micromanager of the game. He's a beasty of a player - exceptionally good. It has been a true revelation to discover that I can - mostly - stand toe to toe with him and fight; he hasn't hoodwinked me or deked me out of my shoes or anything; most of my troubles have come from House Rules combined with the massively successful but problematic invasion of Sikhalin Island, which put me in a corner where circumstances made it tough to accomplish things for awhile. Erik is exceedingly conscientious and thoughtful. He's a real gentleman and a fun guy to talk with, now and then.

The Forum is populated by so many gents. And basically all of the old-timey PBEMers are exceptional folks, as best I can tell. If they weren't, I suppose, they wouldn't survive long. There are a lot of guys out there that I haven't played yet. If only there were time. And, one of these days, I hope there's another match vs. John III. Now that's grudge territory in extremis extraordinaire.

[Gridley380]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The first atomic bomb targeted Tokyo Manpower and did poorly - 4k points. It destroyed (not damaged) most of the Manpower, which is relatively modest anyhow (120 points?). It also destroyed a few other industrial points, but not not much. It did not set raging fires that might've led additional damage, as I had expected.

Rather than target the modest Manpower totals at another base, I think it's worthwhile to target HI, which has more than 1000 points at Tokyo. If an atomic bomb doesn't set fires, the next best thing is to target the biggest general industry around. If that hypothesis works, the points scored should be much higher than the 4k for the first bomb (IE, 50% damage to 1,000 HI points will generate far more points than the 90% damage to 120 Manpower). If the hypothesis turns out to be flawed, I'll have learned something for the next game.

Makes sense. And sounds like it did work better. Looking forward to the screen captures.

[inqistor]

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

You have had abysmal die rolls on your A-Bomb production.

I dropped one early on and forgot about them for a good while.

In February '46 I have 8 in my inventory.

I realized on Feb 20th that my armies were one day out of entering Tokyo and I still had not dropped my second bomb, so I ordered it in for the 20th but it didn't fly.

Was fine with letting my troops enter the hex on the heals of an atomic bomb detonation on the same turn it would have dropped, but won't use it on a hex my guys are already occupying.

That would be actually good experiment, because there is nothing about damage to ground units from atomic attacks, in manual. Although I doubt there is any possibility for device to kill own troops.

[Canoerebel]

11/6/45 to 11/11/45

Second A-Bomb: The chart below gives the information about the second a-bomb. It targeted Tokyo HI and scored about 8,500 points. Compared to the first, that was a good result (number one targeted Tokyo Manpower and scored about 4,500 points).

Hypothesis: Don't use a-bombs on Manpower. You need Manpower to set fires that spread to other industries. The more Manpower at a base, the easier it is to set fires (presumably). Here, the first a-bomb (which also was the first strat bombing mission vs. Tokyo) wiped out all but 2 points of Manpower. So now it's harder (I think) to efficiently set fires. Better to target a-bombs vs. HI or Resources or the like.

China: Another deliberate attack on Shanghai (around the 9th) yielded an adjusted enemy AV of less than 6k, sharply down from the 11k+ last time, and from the 28k+ the first time, about a month ago. The enemy defenses are beginning to show signs of weakness and I definitely think Shanghai will capitulate before the end of the month.

The big army from Formosa that landed in coastal China is now moving inland, nearing the first line of defended enemy bases. Dave has strong pockets at Shanghai, up around Sian, down near Vietnam (at Nanning). I don't know how much he has left in the interior (probably a fair amount), and I don't know if they are hurting for supply. I don't think the Allies can reach Chungking before the end of the game, but I'm going to try my best, simply to see what can be done.

Victory, 1945, 1946, etc.: Per the chart the Allies have 132k points, Japan has 89k, a differential of 43k.

By the end of the year, the Allied lead should be somewhere between 50k and 60k, or roughly 60% of the way to a '45 AV.

Is there an AV benchmark in 1946, such as 1:5 to 1? Or, once you reach '46, does the game simply go until the calendar reaches the ultimate end, February 28, 1946?

[anarchyintheuk]

I know you're busy, but could you post another shot of Tokyo once the detection level is back up? Thanks. As always . . . .

[jwolf]

(deleted this; only saw one pic. My apologies.)

[BBfanboy]

According to the paper manual section 17.2.3, the 2X VP rule applies in 1945 or later.

[BBfanboy]

The Manpower numbers are interesting. My game shows 162 Manpower at Tokyo (no strat bombing yet). Your Nov.3 Screen shows 2 + (80), a difference of 80 from stock scenario 1 (I don't imagine modders changed the Manpower numbers) so 80 Manpower has been destroyed. After the second A-bomb targeted at Industry, the Manpower at Tokyo dropped to 2 + (64) - a difference of 16 from the previous screen. More destruction.
Manpower is important to his ability to produce replacement squads and devices for his LCUs so those reductions will hurt a lot.

Interesting that the bomb did not touch his HI - looks like he moved that and two points of manpower residence to caves or tunnels! [:D]

[inqistor]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

The Manpower numbers are interesting. My game shows 162 Manpower at Tokyo (no strat bombing yet). Your Nov.3 Screen shows 2 + (80), a difference of 80 from stock scenario 1 (I don't imagine modders changed the Manpower numbers) so 80 Manpower has been destroyed. After the second A-bomb targeted at Industry, the Manpower at Tokyo dropped to 2 + (64) - a difference of 16 from the previous screen. More destruction.
Manpower is important to his ability to produce replacement squads and devices for his LCUs so those reductions will hurt a lot.

Not really. I mean, Manpower is needed, but there is so much overproduction of this, that Japan have enough spare for another 3 years already. I made calculations some time ago, based on data from finished games, and reducing production of Manpower to 1/3rd of current value shouldn't still create shortage. I am actually testing, if it is possible to create shortage for Allies, because it seems, that over half of it on map is in DEI/PI/Japan.