Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99.

[rkr1958]

Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Axis #3. Italy. Malta. Sardinia. The Italian Coast.

There's an old saying which goes, "A bird in hand is worth two in the bush." I heard this a lot growing up.

I made the decision that securing Malta, Sardinia and Sardinia's RP through the Italian Coast was a better use of the Italian mot and mech corps than moving them to Egypt. The mot corps was loaded and disembarked this impulse to Sardinia. Also this impulse a task force of 3 CA's covered by a NAV was put into the 3-box of the Italian Coast to guard that sea area and protect the transport from which the mot was landed to Sardinia. The mech corps, which is still in Trieste, will be moved to Malta to reinforce the Italian 1st infantry division that took that island.

[rkr1958]

Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Axis #3. Italy. East Libya. Egypt.

Well, it looks like my intention of getting a strong CW reaction to the strong Italian forces that I setup in Libya on the Egyptian border has worked. I hope this isn't the case of the dog that caught the car.

With the Italians controlling Malta, keeping supply flowing through the Eastern Med to Balbo will still be difficult but much easier than otherwise.

The big question is whether or not my opponent's intentions for Wavell and the CW forces in Egypt are offensive or defensive. I'd certainly be happy if they're defensive and happy to keep the Italian forces currently there to ensure no 2nd BEF with Wavell in France.

I'm sure the RN is coming at Italy in the med with full furry not that Italy and the CW are at war.

[rkr1958]

Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Axis #3. Japan. Central China.

Japan now has a 2-factor strat bomber in range of Chengtu and the oil point stored there. In fine weather and in the absence of any Chinese interception attempt, this gives Japan a 20% chance of destroying that oil point.

However, I can't imagine that my opponent will fail to see this threat in which case he'll move the Chinese fighter back to provide coverage of Chengtu. In this case, Japan will have to wait until it has fighter range sufficient to escort any such strategic bombing mission.

[Courtenay]

ORIGINAL: rkr1958

Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Axis #3. Japan. Central China.
However, I can't imagine that my opponent will fail to see this threat in which case he'll move the Chinese fighter back to provide coverage of Chengtu. In this case, Japan will have to wait until it has fighter range sufficient to escort any such strategic bombing mission.

Or a second bomber in range, preferably with an air-to-air value bigger than one. The FTR can only fly once a turn after all.

I agree that a -2 air-to-air roll is not worth it with just a single bomber, when there are so many other juicy targets available in China. And that ridiculous four point "air transport" that the Japanese own should be one of their highest priority units to build.

[Centuur]

By the way, what's your grand strategy? Barbarossa 1941 or close the Med? You need to build units accordingly to one of those scenario's from the start onwards with Germany.

It's always a wise thing to stick with your first chosen strategy...

[cfinch]

based on the comment that UK will come for Italy in the med i am wondering if a DOW by France on Italy is worth the chit loss as a surprise impulse may do significant damage to the IT forces helping UK while France is still active and given they will then both have a goodly number of turns to have naval practice, also helping preserve UK navy for after France's surrender...

[jjdenver]

Great to see a new AAR. Thank you in advance. I plan to read this one as time permits. Since it's Christmas it's easy to read the first posts, great Christmas present.
Good luck!

[brian brian]

While an un-defended Malta would always make for a tough call on taking it in exchange for probably handing the Allies a 1939 entry chit, a shot at possibly taking out the Royal Navy SUB force makes it an easy decision. A pity for the Axis that they got good rolls vs. the Danish ships rather than those SUBs. To properly defend their Med supply lines from those SUBs takes more Naval impulses than you will really want for Italy. Taking their best SUB base won’t hurt though.

The biggest asset Italy has is the Surprise impulse. I would say that with a landing force for Malta already at sea, a sortie by their own SUBs would have been worth more than over-garrisoning Sardinia. The CW can only invade it on their own Surprise, or if they can knock out supply either with a division already afloat in West Med, or in a subsequent impulse. Something true until they can develop MARines or an AMPH by mid-41.

[rkr1958]

ORIGINAL: Centuur

By the way, what's your grand strategy? Barbarossa 1941 or close the Med? You need to build units accordingly to one of those scenario's from the start onwards with Germany.

It's always a wise thing to stick with your first chosen strategy...

It's Barbarossa 1941.

ORIGINAL: cfinch

based on the comment that UK will come for Italy in the med i am wondering if a DOW by France on Italy is worth the chit loss as a surprise impulse may do significant damage to the IT forces helping UK while France is still active and given they will then both have a goodly number of turns to have naval practice, also helping preserve UK navy for after France's surrender...

I guess that's the risk I take by an early DOW on Great Britain only. [:(]

ORIGINAL: jjdenver

Great to see a new AAR. Thank you in advance. I plan to read this one as time permits. Since it's Christmas it's easy to read the first posts, great Christmas present.
Good luck!

Thanks! [8D]

ORIGINAL: brian brian

While an un-defended Malta would always make for a tough call on taking it in exchange for probably handing the Allies a 1939 entry chit, a shot at possibly taking out the Royal Navy SUB force makes it an easy decision. A pity for the Axis that they got good rolls vs. the Danish ships rather than those SUBs. To properly defend their Med supply lines from those SUBs takes more Naval impulses than you will really want for Italy. Taking their best SUB base won’t hurt though.

The biggest asset Italy has is the Surprise impulse. I would say that with a landing force for Malta already at sea, a sortie by their own SUBs would have been worth more than over-garrisoning Sardinia. The CW can only invade it on their own Surprise, or if they can knock out supply either with a division already afloat in West Med, or in a subsequent impulse. Something true until they can develop MARines or an AMPH by mid-41.

Maybe I was a bit over cautious about defending Sardinia, but I've also seen Italian sub attacks during the surprise impulse fail miserably (and also succeed spectacularly).

In the end I made the decision to take Malta and protect Sardinia. I plan to use both as bases from which to project power and hopefully deny the Med to Great Britain, after the fall of France, for as long as I can.

Also, I do hope to project enough strength against Egypt to keep my opponent guessing as to whether or not I plan to pursue a "Close the Med Strategy" in order to tie down as many CW forces there for as long as possible.

[rkr1958]

Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Allied #4. In-Game Communications Logs.

[al] All righty. On to Allied impulse 4. No DoWs or border demands.

[al] Impulses:
CW & Fr - combined
Ch - land
USA & USSR - combined

[al] Naval air: US NAV flies to Clarion from San Diego

Naval moves: None for USA or USSR;
- Fr sails CV Béarn and some BBs and CAs to 3 box W Med;
- CW sails 2 CVs and some BBs from Gibraltar to 3 box W Med;
- CW sails some CAs from Aden to 4 box E Med (joining the existing French).

[al] Naval combat time, so you have some interception decisions to make.

[al] The CW is initiating combat in each of the W and E Med. In each of those sea areas, Italy can intercept a fighter - to the 0 box in the W Med, and to the 0 or 1 box in the E Med (although presumably the 0 box since the 1 box is otherwise empty).

[al] Do you want to fly fighters to each of those areas?

[ax] Send Italian fighter to 0-box of East Med.

[ax] West Med. Italians will avoid combat if they can. If Italians can't and anything survives 1st round. Then its aborts to La Spezia.

[ax] East Med. Italians will avoid, which I don't think they can. They will stay to the bitter end there.

[al] Naval combat in E Med:
- HMS Manchester initiates;
- Italians intercept FTR as directed;
- Search rolls Allied 2, Axis 6;
- Allies find with 8 surprise;
- Allies spend 4 surprise to call surface combat & remaning to boost damage;
- Allies inflict 1D 2A to sink the lone convoy point in the 0 box:

[al] Both sides stay:
- Search rolls Allied 1, Axis 8
- Since the RN can't do anything to the fighter, they use some of their 11 surprise to avoid the combat, thus ending it

[al] Naval combat in W Med:
- HMS Repulse initiates;
- No intercepts;
- Search rolls Allied 4, Axis 5;
- Allies find and pick both boxes, ending up with 1 surprise;
- RN chooses naval air combat;
- RN gets 1D 1A;
- RN picks the D on the convoy point, sinking it;
- Italy gets to pick the A, only target is the cruiser, saving throw is 5 and the Eugenio Di Savoia is aborted to La Spezia;
- With no Axis ships at sea, the combat ends.

[ax] Looks like the RN didn't take too kindly to II Duce's surprise attack. [:)]

[al] Quite. I believe it's time to trot out the line, "Italy is the country that looks like a boot and behaves like a heel." [:)]

[ax] You've done it now! II Duce is going to tell Adolf what you just said.

[al] I guess he'll have to go invade England for Il Duce or something.

[ax] Yes. That's exactly what he's planning. How did you know?

[al] Lucky guess, I suppose. [:)]

[ax] I need to check for leaks. [:(]

[al] Stuff on land:
- No ground strikes;
- USSR rails the 6-3 51st Army to Odessa from Minsk;
- Assorted land moves in Ukraine around the Rumanian border;
- 4th Siberian Corps moves into the mountains near Chita from its original position near the Onon River;
- Chinese 2nd Cavalry Corps shifts westwards past Ankang;
- BEF debarks into Calais

[al] Land combat:
- With nothing left to lose, the Polish Modlin Army in Krakow attacks the German XXIII (MOT) and XXX (INF) Corps in the woods east of Katowice;

[al] It's a -1.5 combat, Germany's choice of table - do you want to call assault or blitz?

[ax] I suspected as much.

[ax] Looks like the expected number of defenders lost is 0.19 for an assault and 0.17 for a blitz. However, if I choose a blitz that loss would be the mot. Also, you're PWIN for a blitz would be 4% versus 0% for the assault. So, I'll go with Assault.

[al] I don't know that it changes your decision, but:
- Only the attacker has to take ARM, MECH, or MOT as first loss in a blitz combat.
- Also, the Poles' only real goal is to inflict casualties, so the "win" conditions are any net result of 13, 14, or 15 on the blitz table, which may not be the 4% PWIN.
- Finally, if the Poles make the fractional roll (leaving a -1 modifier), a stellar combat roll of 20 does kill both Germans, a result that is impossible on the blitz table.

[al] (The first point is a rules correction; the rest is just a bonus.) [:)]

[ax] Thanks. Blitz then.

[ax] Appreciate it!

[al] Germany calls blitz.
- Fractional roll is 197, for a net -1A combat;
- Combat roll is 12, for a net result of 11: the Modlin Army is destroyed without inflicting any harm on the Germans.

[ax] Phew ... that was close.

[al] Rebases:
- CW rebases a Hurricane to Plymouth from Dover

[al] Standing order: Chinese fighter in Ichang will intercept ground strikes on Nanyang, provided there are two or more bombers participating; otherwise it will CAP or intercept ground support on a land combat attacking Nanyang.

If two or more bombers ground strike Ichang, the fighter will intercept there instead.

Whatever the case, if the fighter flies and survives it returns to base in Chihkiang.

[ax] Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Axis #5. Weather roll = 5. Rain in the arctic and north monsoon. Fine everywhere else.

[rkr1958]

Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Axis #5. Pre-Impulse Walk Around.

1. The unguarded CW CP's in the North Atlantic and Cape St. Vincent are might inviting targets, especially given that allies have no air in range that can react. I just hope my setup error with the Italian subs (i.e., placing them in Trieste instead of La Spezia) doesn't come into play.

2. In addition to moving their subs out to sea the Italians will also sorties to retake control of the East Med from the weak RN force there (2 CA's) and reestablish supply to their forces in Libya.

3. Japan will, of course, bomb the stored Chinese oil point. With the Chinese fighter out of range to intercept or fly cap, this does give the Japanese a 20% chance of knocking that oil point out.

4. Japan also will Yamamoto, MIL and 2 division from Japan to China where they are sorely need. Especially, Yamamoto's HQ-I in the south for supply.

[rkr1958]

Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Axis #5. In-Game Communications Log.

Note. {...} = non-communications, "private" AAR axis comments.

[ax] No DOW's and no alignments.

[ax] Axis Actions. Germany - combine, Italy - naval, Japan - combine.

[ax] Naval Air. None.

[ax] IJN moves x 2. (1) TRS + 5-2 MIL moves directly from Fukuoka to Canton. (2) TRS + Yamamoto HQ-A & TRS + eng div & arty div from Fukuoka to 0-box of China Sea.

[ax] German naval moves x 1. 2 U-boat flotillas from Kiel to North Atlantic (2 & 1 box).

[ax] Italian sub moves x 3. 1 to North Atlantic (0-box), 1 to Cape St. Vincent (2-box), 1 to East Med (2-box).

{If I had "correctly" setup the 3 Italian subs in La Spezia instead of Trieste then I would have moved 2 to Cape St. Vincent (3-box) and 1 to North Atlantic (1-box). Mistakes like this usually wind up biting me in the rear end. I'll shortly find out if this one does.} [&:]

[ax] Italian RM moves. TRS + 5-5 mech, Trieste to Valetta, Malta. Italian Coast. 2 CA's to 0-box. East Med. CP + 2 CA's to 0-box, sub 2-box, 2 BB's 3-box, 4 CA's 4-box.

[ax] Supply is restored to Italian forces in Libya.

[ax] Possible Naval Combat. (1) Cape St. Vincent, (2) Eastern Med, (3) North Atlantic. I don't believe the allies have any possible air reactions; but will pause and ask if they do.

[ax] Cape St. Vincent. Italian sub 2-box vs 6 CW CP's 0-box. Fine weather. Italy commits her sub. Search. Axis 4, Allies 3. Nobody finds.

{Dang it! My Italian sub setup mistake cost me! 2 subs in the 3-box would have found on a roll of 4 in fine weather with CP's in the 0-box. Oh well ... such are the fortunes of war.} [:(]

[ax] Eastern Med. Italian FTR2 0-box initiates. Italy commits her sub (2-box). Search. Axis 1, Allies 8. Only the Italians finds and with 7 SP's vs 2 RN CA's in 4-box.

[ax] Surface Combat. Italians use 2 SP's to decrease their risk from D to A, 2 SP's to increase RN risk from X, D, 2A to X, 2D and 3 SP's to put X on RN CA Gloucester.

[ax] X vs CA Gloucester, D10=8, damaged. There are 2 D's left, which you allocate. Where do you wish to place the 2nd D?

[al] First D on Manchester.

If the first D doesn't abort it, second D also on Manchester; otherwise it'll have to go on Gloucester.

[ax] D vs CA Manchester, D10=5 which damages the ship. 3rd and last D vs CA Manchester, D10=6, which also damages and therefore sinks the Manchester.

[ax] Now, here's a rule I don't know. If you abort do the French who aren't at war with the Italians abort too?

[ax] If they don't I'd assume you'd wish to abort.

[ax] Though there's still some business left. Italian risk is A which they put on the sub. D10=7, which aborts the sub group.

[al] There's a clarification in RAC 11.5.4: "Clarification: Neutral naval units that are not committed to the combat do not abort after naval combat, even though all other units on their side abort."

[al] So as long as that's implemented, I believe the French will remain. That being the case, the Commonwealth would like to skedaddle.

[ax] The Italians stay and I will abort the damage RN CA with the intention that the (neutral) French stay. If that's not the case then we'll come back to this point and decide again.

[al] Poor showing by naval intelligence, I must say. Good on the chaps doing damage control, but when you're getting shelled by half the Regia Marina, what can you do?

[ax] II Duce has served notice that the Med is an Italian lake, that the British are not welcomed and should stay away. But then there's this whole matter of the West Med and the RN there. [:(]

[ax] Italian sub aborts to Malta. Damaged CA Gloucester aborts to Port Said.

{It doesn't matter where a damaged ship is returned, it'll go directly to the repair pool assuming it makes it to some friendly port.}

[ax] I've got to take my dogs out. [&:] But the 3rd and final naval combat is 3 subs (2,1, 0) vs 10 CP's in the North Atlantic. I saved the best for last and I'm building the tension as we wait.

[al] If by "take the dogs out" you mean "cry havoc and let slip the dogs of war", I total- oh, no you actually mean "take the dogs out". [;)]

[ax] Gotta go when you gotta go and my dogs (of war), my 2 bichon frise, had to go. They are definitely vicious dogs of war. [:D]

[ax] North Atlantic. German u-boat 1-box initiates and axis commits all three of her subs (2 German, 1 Italian). Search. Axis = 6, allies = 1. Nobody finds. [:(]

[ax] Strat bombing. Here's a biggie, which I don't think you saw. Sorry to spring this on you. Nell bomber, w/2 strat factors, in Wuhan vs 1 factory & saved oil point in Chengtu. Since this raid isn't (can't) be intercepted there's a 20% chance of knocking out China's saved oil (roll of 9 or 10). I really do feel bad about this; especially if I roll a 9 or 10.

[ax] Strategic Bombing. Chengtu. D10=5+1=6. After all that, Japan missed everything. [:(]

[al] Eh, that's what I get for being sloppy and not throwing it up in the back 40 somewhere.

[ax] Now that the cat is out of the bag, Chengtu is going to get a whole lot of interest from Japanese bombers. Just wished had I more of them with the reach at this point.

[ax] Germany. Rail move x 1. 150 mm arty div from Poland to Aachen, Germany.

[ax] Japan use the 3 land moves of their combine to disembark Yamamoto HQ-I, arty div and eng div to Swatow, China (2-hexes directly northeast of Hong Kong).

[ax] Air Rebase. Germany. F/B (FTR2) from Hambug to Ge [51,33]on the Dutch, Belgium border. FTR2 from Dusseldorf to Ge [49,35], 1 hex SW of Bremen.

[ax] Air Rebase. Italy. FTR2 in Olbia, Sardinia to Malta.

[ax] HQ Reorg. Umezu reorgs Nell NAV bomber in Wuhan.

[rkr1958]

Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Axis #5. End of Impulse. Germany.

Germany continues her moving of forces from Poland to the west. Though, a combine by Germany this impulse limited that movement.

[rkr1958]

Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Axis #5. Italy. East Med.

[rkr1958]

Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Axis #5. Japan. Strategic Bombing. Chengtu, China.

[rkr1958]

Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Axis #5. Japan. HQ Reorg.

I know I won't get it but another bite at the apple would be nice (i.e., strat bombing of Chengtu). On the up side, assuming Composer99 rebases the Chinese fighter to cover Chengtu, this will leave other ground targets wide open to Japanese ground strikes and ground support.

[rkr1958]

Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Allied #6. In-Game Communication Log.

Note. {...} = non-communications, "private" AAR axis comments.

[al] Impulses:
- USSR combined
- Ch land
- CW naval
- Fr & US pass

[al] Port attack: RN Swordfish flying from HMS Courageous strike out at the RM cruiser sitting in La Spezia.

[ax] I expected that. Bad call on my part returning to base there versus Trieste or even Malta which has fighter cover. [:(]

[al] Surprise rolls: Italy 2, CW 7, giving Italy 7 surprise. You can either boost AA to lowest 1 of 5 or avoid the combat, although I feel pretty safe assuming you prefer the second course of action.

[ax] Please, avoid.

[al] Port strike duly avoided.

[al] Even after all these years, the rules can still surprise me. It turns out the French in the Eastern Med, even though they aren't contributing actively to fight the Italians, can still provide presence in the sea area (as per Option 19: In the Presence of the Enemy), so the CW ships don't have to pay an extra movement cost to enter the zone.

[ax] Yes. I knew that because of MWiF. That is, because MWiF enforces the rules.

[ax] Though I don't like what I think might be shaping up in the East Med.

[al] Naval moves:
- CW sails cruisers from Halifax and Liverpool to the 0, 1, and 4 boxes of the North Atlantic.
- CW sails cruisers from Aden to the 4 box of the Red Sea
- CW sails HMS Glorious (CV) and cruiser escort from Aden to meet up with battleships sailing from Port Said to meet up in the 3 box
- CW sails Danish convoys from Tórshavn in the Faeroes Islands to Liverpool

[al] (Apropos of the French providing presence, what I hadn't realised was that any friendly SCS would do; I thought they also had to be at war with the enemy ships in order to provide presence.)

[ax] Dang French!

[al] Naval combats:
- CW does not initiate in the North Atlantic
- CW initiates in the Red Sea (only an Italian cp): searches are CW 4, Italy 10; the convoy is sunk, sunk, sunk. (Kind of wishing that was the result for the E Med, we'll see how that turns out shortly.)

[ax] That's the 3rd Italian CP lost this turn.

[al] Well, they are on the same side as the British, so even if they can't shoot the Italians, they can still radio their positions to les Anglais, can't they? [;)]

[ax] Multiple states of war. [:(]

[al] Here goes nothing! CW initiates in the Eastern Med.

[al] The Italians can intercept the FTR from Malta into the 0 or 1 box. Will they?

[ax] No thank you. Italian fighter in Malta stays put.

[al] Righty-o.

[al] Search rolls are CW 3, Italy 3. Both sides find: RN in the 3 box, RM in the 3 and 4 boxes.

[al] With the surface fleets evenly balanced, CW calls a naval air combat.

[al] Italian AA fire is close to the best I've ever seen for lowest die out of 6, but is betrayed by the one die that comes up '1'. {see al-01}

[al] I mean, seriously, it's within spitting distance of shooting down the CVP.

[ax] Fortunes of war ...

[al] Italy takes 1D damage; CW picks the cruiser Trento; saving throw is a 7, so she aborts - where to?

[ax] Malta.

[al] Royal Navy also stays, so it's off to round 2.

[al] Fighter in Malta stays put?

[ax] Correct.

[al] Search rolls are CW 10, Italy 1. RN radar boys are drinking on the job or something.

[al] So it's Italy's 3 and 4 box versus RN 3 box with 10 surprise points.

[ax] What box is the RN CV in and how ships are there in total. Also, what's the total surface of the RM ships that found?

[al] CV is in 3 box, along with 3 BBs and 3 CAs.

[al] Italy has 21 surface vs 7 targets, CW has 28 surface versus 5 targets - both are in the same damage profile.

[ax] What's the range of the CVP on the RN CV?

[al] Range is 2. [:(] [X(] [;)]

[ax] Let's go. RN isolates the 3-box and uses 4 SP's to force surface combat.

[ax] 2 SP's used to reduce Italy's risk from X, D, 2A to X, 3A. 3 SP's used to select RN CV for X.

[al] Okay.

[ax] RM. Put their X on CA Zara and if it survives put A's until aborted. Next, put A's on CA Gorizia, followed by the other 2 RM CA's (order doesn't matter) until Italians run out of risk.

[ax] All RM aborts go to Malta.

[al] X on Zara: saving throw is 8, so it's damaged.
A on Zara: saving throw is 4 so it aborts.
A on Gorizia: saving throw is 2 so it aborts.
Final A on Bolzano: saving throw is 3 so it aborts.

[ax] RM will stay.

[al] Royal Navy damage:
X on carrier HMS Glorious: saving throw is 8 so she's damaged.
D on cruiser Dorsetshire: saving throw is 1 so she's damaged.
A on Glorious: saving throw is 3 so she aborts.
A on Dorsetshire: saving throw is 7 so she aborts.

[ax] I really wanted that carrier. [:(]

[al] (The use of neuter pronouns for the Italians versus conventional feminine nouns for the RN ships was not intentional. Or... maybe I should say it is intentional now I've noticed it!)

[al] Both sides stay so we're on to round 3

[ax] Ok ... obviously your knowledge of language is far superior than mine. I still haven't noticed it. [:)]

[al] I called all the Italian ships "it" and the British ones "she".

[ax] Oh ... got you.

[ax] I do think II Duce is quite offended then.

[al] Search rolls: CW 7, Italy 10. Combat ends.

[ax] Phew ...

[al] Well, you haven't seen the last of us! (Although maybe you've seen the last of whatever fleet admiral was in command. Gent's getting sacked.)

[ax] I know ... an even exchange for the RN is a win for the RN.

[al] Non-phasing combat - Germany can initiate in the North Atlantic. As of now there are 2 RN cruisers in the 4 box, 3 in the 1 box (including the Erebus), and 3 in the 0 box (including the Terror).

[al] Do you want to initiate?

[ax] Yes. German sub will initiate.

[al] Roger that. German sub initiates. No planes to send. Subs are committed.

[al] Search rolls: Axis 3, CW 10.

[ax] WAY TO GO!!!!

[al] Looks like the RN chaps are a little rusty at this whole "war" thing.

[ax] Isolate 0-box, default to sub combat. So I've got 1 sub that found?

[al] German sub in the 2 box finds, yes.

[al] With 9 surprise points.

[ax] Germany gets (2+10) - (0+3) = 9 SP's?

[ax] Ok, beat me too it.

[ax] So the sub is 3 vs 5, which gives me a D before any SP's?

[ax] What's the risk to the sub?

[ax] 4 ASW vs 1 sub? So the risk is an A?

[ax] No 6 ASW vs 1 sub, so D, 2A?

[al] Risk to sub is 6 ASW vs. 1 ship for 1D, 2A, correct.

[al] Before spending surprise sub inflicts 1D of damage (3 sub vs. 5 ships)

[ax] Use 4 SP's to shift CP losses from 1D to 2D, 3A and 4 SP's to reduce sub risk from D, 2A to A. If sub aborted, return to Kiel.

[ax] Subs stay and will continue to fight.

[al] A on sub: saving throw is 8, so the sub aborts to Kiel.

[ax] Subs stay but will not commit.

[al] 2D and 3A on CW cps sinks 2 cps and sends 3 to Liverpool.

[ax] Correction. Stay but no commit.

[al] Okay, subs stay but don't commit, ending combat.

[al] Land stuff:
- USSR rails art gun from Chita to Omsk
- USSR moves Siberian near Chita into city

Rebases:
- Ch fighter to Chungking

[al] That's it for the Allies. I'm sending you the file at the air rebase step, after everyone's done all the rebases they want. Just end the phase and you'll proceed to weather.

[ax] Ok ... that'll be it for tonight for me except for the weather roll, which I'll do now.

[al] Okay.

[ax] Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Axis #7. Weather Roll = 6. Weather remains the same. Rain in the arctic and north monsoon, fine everywhere else.

[ax] However, impulse advance is 2 versus 1 for the last weather pair.

[rkr1958]

Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Axis #7. In-Game Communication Log.

Note. {...} = non-communications, "private" AAR axis comments.

[ax] Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Axis #7. Weather Roll = 6. Weather remains the same. Rain in the arctic and north monsoon, fine everywhere else. However, impulse advance is 2 versus 1 for the last weather pair.

[ax] No DOW's, no alignments.

[ax] Actions. Japan - land, Germany - land, Italy - land.

[ax] 10% chance of turning ending after this impulse.

[ax] No Naval Air.

[ax] No Strategic Bombing.

[ax] Chinese fighter CAP. Unless otherwise directed I'll assume no CAP for the 7-range Chinese fighter. For example, the fighter could fly CAP over Chaing's 3-stack in Chihkiang to defended against a ground strike. However; I assume you rebased the fighter to Chungking in order to defend the oil at Cehengtu and will continue with that assumption unless directed otherwise.

[ax] Japanese Ground Strike. Nav w/3 TAC factors vs 2-stack (Chinese inf, mil) in Nanyang, China. {See screen cap below}

[al] There's no risk of a land attack on Chihkiang, so no CAP there.

[ax] GSTK on Nanyang. D10=10, 9. Not sure the Japanese Val's even dropped bombs. {See below screen cap}

[al] Sounds about normal for Japanese ground strikes.

[ax] That's too been my experience but you gotta try.

[al] By the way, I have WiFi on my phone but am out for the evening (not a romantic New Year's dinner), so may or may not respond.

[ax] I think I have only one question that needs to be answered. I'm planning on a likely land combat at the 2-stack in Nanyang.

[ax] This attack will include a Mot corps and will likely be around around 10 to 11.

[ax] Do you wish to use the assault or blitz table.

[ax] Rules question too. If the only hexes for retreat are empty Chinese controlled hexes in Japanese ZOC would they be eliminated instead?

[ax] Rail. Japan. 6-3 IJN Mar corps. Pusan, Korea to Changsha, China.

[ax] Rail x 3. Germany. (1) 105 mm arty div. Pozan, Poland to Cologne, Germany. (2) 1st Eng div. Lodz, Poland to Dusseldorf, Germany. (3) 88mm AA div. Lodz, Poland to Essen, Germany.

[ax] Scratch IJA land combat vs Nanyang.

[ax] Though I don't know when I'll get this chance (i.e., weather) again.

[ax] My odds are 8.143, which on the assault table would give me a 56% chance of taking the city with a 5% chance of losing 3-units, 23% chance of losing 2 units and 29% chance of losing 1 unit.

[ax] No. No attack at this time.

[al] That's a relief. I would have called assault in any event.

[ax] Air Rebase. Germany. FTR2 from Germany [49,35] to Cologne.

[al] Also, an empty hex in enemy ZoC is not a valid retreat path, so blitz table would very likely mean loads of dead Chinese.

[ax] If the ground strike had managed to flip at least 1 of the 2 defenders (51% chance of that), then no doubt I would have proceeded. But, at this stage the odds were just too low to not only risk losing more than 1 unit but risk disorganizing the surviving attackers and giving you pretty much free reign in the north for 1 or 2 impulses.

[ax] Air Rebase. Italy. LND2. Bardia, Libya to Egypt [82,55] (which is on top of an Italian 3-stack that includes Balbo).

[ax] 01-SEP-OCT-1939-AXIS-EOI-07.zip game turn sent.

[ax] Enjoy your evening. No rush with New Years, football and all. [:)]

[rkr1958]

Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Axis #7. Japan. China.

Looks like a stalemate is developing in China, which I fine with. There's really no other RP's I wish to go after so the other objectives are: (1) destroy Nationalist units and (2) knock down Chinese production through strategic bombing. However, I will only attempt either if the risk (of losing or flipping units) is modest.

[rkr1958]

Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Axis #7. Germany.

With Poland cleared out and fine weather in the north temperate, Germany spent this impulse rebasing as many units from east to west.