Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99.

[rkr1958]

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #3. (concluded).

[ax] Air Rebase. Japan.
(1) A6M2 (Zero) from Sasebo, Japan to Wuhan, China.
(2) Ki-51 (2 Tac) to Kweilin, China.

[ax] HQ Reorg. None.

[ax] I'll end my impulse here and pass the game file back. 05-MAY-JUNE-1940-Axis-03-EOI.zip sent.

Japanese Strategic Bombing Potential.

{Japan now has fighter unit in position that can escort the Japanese bomber to the Chinese oil point. That would be so nice to knock that out. It's time to start trying.}

[Courtenay]

Good grief. You were right not to attack the MIL. Your opponent abandoned the mountains. Unfortunately, he then activated the weather control device, but next impulse the weather should be good, and you will be able to attack Chinese units that aren't in mountains or behind rivers.

I have no idea why he abandoned the mountains. If he can't defend in mountains, he certainly can't defend in clear terrain.

[Centuur]

ORIGINAL: Courtenay

Good grief. You were right not to attack the MIL. Your opponent abandoned the mountains. Unfortunately, he then activated the weather control device, but next impulse the weather should be good, and you will be able to attack Chinese units that aren't in mountains or behind rivers.

I have no idea why he abandoned the mountains. If he can't defend in mountains, he certainly can't defend in clear terrain.

Very surprising move by the Chinese indeed. And I would have attacked that MIL too...

[brian brian]

Did the Germans use an Offensive Chit and then not double any units on the first impulse, or did I miss something?

[rkr1958]

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Allied #5.

[al] Allied Impulse 5.

[al] No DoWs, alignments, or border claims.

[al] Actions:
China land
CW, France & USSR combined
USA passes

[al] Port Attacks. CW bombs Malta.

[al] Surprise rolls are Italy 1, CW 1. Italy has 1 surprise, so no effect.

[al] No AA result (not enough AA for 1 bomber)

[al] 2 naval bombing factors vs 2 ships is 2 aborts, which isn't particularly helpful.

[ax] Not since they're already flipped. But I guess it's good to make sure. 😀

[al] Well, one can always hope for a good split. The potential was there at any rate.

[ax] absolutely.

[al] No naval air.

[al] Naval Moves:
- HMS Eagle (CVL), Malaya (BB), and Revenge (BB) sail from Port Said to 2 box Eastern Med, where they are joined by HMS Sussex sailing out of Gibraltar.
- French TRS sails from Dakar with Senegalese Dakar MIL embarked to 0 box Bay of Biscay.

[al] Naval Combats
CW can initiate in North Sea & Cape St Vincent, but won't.
CW can initiate in It Coast and Eastern Med, and will

[al] First up, naval combat in the Eastern Med.

[al] CW won't fly any planes, and Axis still don't have any to fly.

[al] Search rolls are CW 6, Italy 8. No combat.

[al] Next up, naval combat in Italian Coast.

[al] CW commits subs, there are no planes to fly.

[al] (Apart from those already at sea, that is.)

[al] Search rolls are CW 4, Italy 1. Both sides' top boxes would have found in fine weather.

[al] But no dice this time.

[al] Ground Strikes
The newly-arrived RAF bombers in Alexandria are striking the Italians near Bardia. Do you want to fire AA?

[ax] I'll pass.

[al] Righty-o.

[al] Hampden hits on 3s. Rolls are:
20 mm (AA gun): 3 hit
CCNN Corps (3-3 INF): 9 miss
HQ Balbo: 3 hit

[ax] Ouch.

[al] Bombers return to Alexandria.

[al] Indeed. I'm not sure the British can make anything of it since they can't call a blitz, but we'll see as the turn goes on I suppose.

[ax] Have you reestablished supply through the East Med?

[al] Not yet. That's another fly in the ointment.

[ax] Ok. Thanks.

[al] Rail Moves:
- CW rails the Sierra Leone TERR from Plymouth to Aberdeen. Poor chaps.
- USSR rails the 4-2 ART gun (stacked with HQ Timoshenko) to Stalino.

[al] Land Moves:
- Sian MIL moves to hex just northeast, stacked with 5th Army (4-1 GARR).
- USSR adjusts positions around Bessarabia & Lvov.
- KMT forces withdraw further into Kweichow Province.
- HQ Wavell and forces stacked with it advance and are adjacent to the hapless Libyan rearguard.
- V Corps (6-4 INF) and 3-2 AT gun leave the French positions in the Ardennes, leaving the Lyons MIL as the sole occupant.
- Dakar MIL disembarks into St-Nazaire.

[al] Land Combats:
Only one combat - the British attack the Libyan rearguard in Egypt.

[al] The combat in Egypt is 13:1 before any modifiers, so no HQ support or shore bombardment.

[al] It's a +21 blitz, so automatically a /-2B result.

[al] MWiF rolls a 12 for the combat die roll.

{I miscalculated here. I thought because of the British supply problems in the East Med that this 1-4 Libyan Terr was save. How wrong I was.}

[al] Rebases:
- None for CW.
- Fr ftr2 in France [55,32] rebases to France [55,31].
- USSR lnd3 near Kyubyshev rebases to not far from Novosibirsk.

[al] No reorg. Sending the game file at French HQ reorg.

[ax] Ok. Will open and made weather roll, but I think that's it for me tonight. Getting tired. We've had a good, but long, day of gaming. 😀

[al] You're telling me! Whew.

[ax] With +2 weather roll modifier at least the axis will get at least one more impulse of fine weather in the north temperate.

[al] Indeed.

[ax] Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #7. Weather=9+2=11. Fine everywhere.

[ax] Impulse advance = 1, die roll modifier = 0.

[rkr1958]

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #7 (Pre-Impulse Assessment) Weather.

We stopped here last night and I took that break to do an in-depth assessment of where I am and how I should proceed in my next impulse. Before I get to that impulse, which will be shortly, I wanted to provide you with that assessment in the hopes that it will future clarify in my mind how I am to proceed.

First off there are three major theaters of combat that I'm currently focusing on: (1) France, (2) Northern/Central China and (3) Southern China. Theaters (1) & (2) are in the north temperate weather zone and theater 3 is in north monsoon.

So, is this impulse likely to be my last of this turn? I'd say no; i.e., that I'm likely, but not guaranteed, to get another impulse. The chance of getting another impulse is somewhere between 54 to 72%, dependent upon what pass options my opponent takes during his impulse. Though I can't imagine my opponent passing with all (54%) or even all but one (63%) of the allied major powers. That would seem just too risky in that it would effectively give the axis two adjacent impulses in France or China, or both. So my estimate is that I have a 72% chance of getting at least one more impulse (after this one).

Next is weather. Assuming the turn does continue to my next impulse (i.e., Axis #9), there's an 80% chance for fine weather in the north temperate and a 40% chance for fine in the north monsoon. For the north temperate (France and Northern/Central China) this gives me 57.6% chance of getting another impulse with fine weather. While not great, this means that I don't have to, and won't make low probability, high risk of flipping attackers, attacks in France. Likely next axis impulse (if I get one) is the time for that but not this current impulse.

Now, that's not the case for Southern China (i.e., north monsoon). The chance of getting another impulse with fine weather there is 28.8%. So if I have a chance for something but with risk, this seems like the impulse to do that before that chance is wiped by bad weather. In other words, in southern China it's time to make hay while the sun shines!

[rkr1958]

ORIGINAL: brian brian

Did the Germans use an Offensive Chit and then not double any units on the first impulse, or did I miss something?

Yes, they doubled 8 units across the two land combats they made.

[brian brian]

farewell to the "Camel Corps" (which also does not exist in the WIFCE counter mix). A better use for it than the front lines with the British Army is for it to run around elsewhere in Africa in hopes that the Allies eventually have to do something about it. Perhaps with an initial air drop of re-supply if the Italians have a LND3 with a white range circle. After that, maybe 4-5 turns later it might start to threaten something, somewhere.

[rkr1958]

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #7 (Pre-Impulse Assessment) East Med.

Before I get to my three theaters of focus (e.g., France, Northern/Central China, Southern China), I want to cover the East Med/Libya and Egypt.

It's time to get Balbo and the AA gun out if I can. Unfortunately both units were flipped by an effective RAF ground strike last impulse and even if they weren't, both Italian transports are tied up in the Italian Coast. So Balbo is just going to have to hold on and see if he can be rescued next impulse. With nothing to really go on but gut, I give it 50/50 on whether or not Bablo and the AA gun division can successfully be evacuated back to mainland Europe.

The upside is that my feint worked. That is, it drew a heck of a lot of interest, actions and units away from the defense of France and looks like it has ensured no second BEF in France led by Wavell.

[rkr1958]

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #7 (Pre-Impulse Assessment) Italian-Franco Border.

I looked at the possibility of the Italians making a push to capture Nice, which would then given them a chance to push on Toulon and Marsellies. While I will almost certainly accept the armistice and Vichy France, this would have the benefit of drawing more French units away from the main battle to the north against the Germans. That is, if the Italian attack on Nice was to succeed.

While a PWIN of 70% looks promising, the 8.5% chance that the Italians would have to lose 3 of the 4 attackers isn't. Also, this result (i.e., the dreaded 14) would give France an opening into Italy and possibly force the Germans to divert resources to shoring that situation up. Even if the attack succeeds without the dreaded 14 there's only a 26% that some of the surviving attackers will not be flipped.

While I considered this attack, I really didn't consider it that seriously given the risk. For the foreseeable future, the Italians on the Italian-Franco border will continue to be a threat in being.

[Courtenay]

You might not have a good attack in southern China this impulse; it looks like you might have to spend the impulse moving units forward.

What does France look like? He had a strong French line, except that the hex north of Lille was completely empty. He had to do something about that, which would weaken his line elsewhere. If the Germans have an unflipped HQ, a half-flipped result this impulse is not that bad; you use the HQ to reorganize the flipped units. You are likely to get one more impulse. Two, while possible, is not likely.

[rkr1958]

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #7 (Pre-Impulse Assessment) The Western Front.

So far most of the heavy fighting on the Western Front has been between the Germans and the British. I really haven't had a chance to hurt the French army. One interesting consequent on focusing on the British and the BEF is that the northern coast of France is wide open for the Germans simply to march into and take.

As I argued a few posts back (impulse weather post), I don't feel this is the impulse to make the high risk attacker flip attacks. Even Lille, where I could get three stacks adjacent to it, I couldn't do much better than +3 or +4 on the assault table. And against the 3-stack defending Lillie, a +4 assault gives only a 15% chance of succeeding. So even if I expected this to be my last fine weather impulse of the turn, that attack is off the table. It's just too bad of odds.

I did look at blitz attack against the French 3-stack in hex D. Assuming offensive and defensive ground and HQ support I arrived at odds of around +6 on the blitz table. This gave me a PWIN of 64% but with only a 36% chance of shattering the defenders and an expected number of defenders killed less than 1/2. Also, there was only a 21% chance of remaining fully organized and a 34% chance of remaining 1/2 organized (i.e., 45% chance of all surviving attackers flipping).

I even considered an assault to take one or two Maginot line hexes. The best odds I could get were around +2 assault, which against a single defender would given a PWIN of 45% but almost guarantee all surviving attackers were flipped.

The bottom line to all this was this was not the time to make these types of attacks and risk massive flips. I'd rather use maneuver in order to force the French to react or risk the Germans pushing along the coast or even making a play against the single French corps hold Paris.

So here's what I've decided to do this impulse. The German 3-stack east of Calais will occupy that city. Germany will airdrop into Boulogne and the German 3-stack now in Calais, which includes a mech corps, will join in the attack if the French include the notionals in Boulogne. I doubt they will, but if they do the attack will be a Blitz with an opportunity of a breakthrough into Le Havre. Though such a breakthrough would thin the German line along Calais-Boulogne-Le Havre way too much for my liking. So I'd probably not exploit the breakthrough if the French included the Boulogne notionals, which I don't think they will.

The French have two organized fighter units, the first in hex D and the second in hex E. The one in hex D could intercept the airborne drop and the one in E could only intercept if it flew CAP. I don't think that's likely, but I'll (have to) ask my opponent if he wishes to fly CAP. I'll have to ask in such a way as not to give my airdrop plan away.

This leaves the French fighter in hex D, which could intercept. I will ground strike hex D with the German artillery division directly to the east and I will ground strike hex F with the organized Ju 87B (5 Tac) plane. I believe this will force my opponent to fly the French fighter in D to defend against the airstrike in F. This fighter will then be intercepted by the one remaining organized German fighter in the same hex as the German arty division.

All this leaves one German plane (LND2 w/4 TAC) organized. I will use von Bock to reorganize the artillery division and fighter for use next impulse. I will also have an organized von Rundsted HQ-A to provide +2 HQ support if necessary next impulse.

[rkr1958]

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #7 (Pre-Impulse Assessment). Northern/Central China.

My plans here are fairly simple: (1) strat bomb the Chinese oil in Chentgu. It's safe to assume that the Chinese will intercept. So, assuming the Japanese bomber, which will be escorted by the long range zero, gets through, this gives them a 10% chance of knocking out the only Chinese oil point. Low odds, but catastrophic for the Chinese Japan succeeds.

(2) Clear out Ichang in order to free up those troops to push north to defend against the encroaching communists.

(3) Shore up defense against the encroaching communists and wait for reinforcements from the south.

Also, I feel the Soviets are up to something. I feel they're planning to attack Japan, so I want to free up an HQ and some troops to bolster defenses there.

[rkr1958]

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #7 (Pre-Impulse Assessment). Southern China.

What to do here? At worse, I could have a 1 out of 5 shot of eliminating Chaing. If I wait, then I feel my opponent will move a 3rd unit (i.e., div) in with Chaing and I'll lose that opportunity. Forget about the weather.

Of course it's a non-brainer if the Japanese manage to take out the Chinese oil point (10% chance).

Also, Chaing's chance of survival, as well as Japan's PWIN, would increase significantly if my opponent chooses to fight on the blitz versus assault; but I expect him to choose assault. Though why, I don't know.

I've decided to take the shot (i.e., go for Chaing) no matter the outcome of the ground strike (2 Tac factors). I'm not sure when, or if, I'll ever get this chance again.

As I wrote in the screen cap, "It's time to make hay while the sun shines."

Don't you just love this game!

[Centuur]

I would ignore the Soviets, if I were playing the Japanese.

If you withdraw units from China, you are reacting to your opponent. In early game, one should only react to your opponent if they do something. The presence of the enemy on the border isn't enough to react IMHO.

Let the Soviets declare war on Japan. That's good for US entry. But keep an HQ and a good INF in China on the raillines to respond immediately if Uncle Joe is stupid enough to go for a two front war.

Don't forget to take that one hex on the Birma Road (with Hunan under it) which you don't control at the moment. It's very important for supply reasons...

I don't think it is wise to attack Chiang if both units are not disorganised. Don't fritter away your army.

Also: use Yamamoto to reorganise your STRAT bomber. Next impulse the Chinese FTR can't intercept on a second attempt to kill the Chinese oil...

In France, I think you have to consider to use your second offensive next turn. And build FTR's with Germany. You need an awful lot of those.
And whatever happens: make sure your PARA survives when it drops in Boulogne (because you are absolutely right to do so, but make sure a Stuka is in range with FTR support to prevent a French counterattack).

[Courtenay]

ORIGINAL: Centuur

I would ignore the Soviets, if I were playing the Japanese.

If you withdraw units from China, you are reacting to your opponent. In early game, one should only react to your opponent if they do something. The presence of the enemy on the border isn't enough to react IMHO.

Let the Soviets declare war on Japan. That's good for US entry. But keep an HQ and a good INF in China on the raillines to respond immediately if Uncle Joe is stupid enough to go for a two front war.

Don't forget to take that one hex on the Birma Road (with Hunan under it) which you don't control at the moment. It's very important for supply reasons...

I don't think it is wise to attack Chiang if both units are not disorganised. Don't fritter away your army.

Also: use Yamamoto to reorganise your STRAT bomber. Next impulse the Chinese FTR can't intercept on a second attempt to kill the Chinese oil...

In France, I think you have to consider to use your second offensive next turn. And build FTR's with Germany. You need an awful lot of those.
And whatever happens: make sure your PARA survives when it drops in Boulogne (because you are absolutely right to do so, but make sure a Stuka is in range with FTR support to prevent a French counterattack).

I am not at all sure of using a second offensive.

I did not know what hex Peter was talking about, until I noticed that the hex two hexes west of Chansha was still Chinese owned. That should be taken this turn.

The attack on Chiang strikes me as reasonable, certainly given one flip.

The backpedaling of the Chinese is remarkable.

[rkr1958]

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #7.

[ax] No Dow's. No special actions. No alignments.

[al] No special actions - just giving the French and Chinese bloody noses.

[ax] We'll see who gets the bloody noses. It may not be them.

[ax] But I have to try.

[ax] Any allied CAP?

[al] No, I think the French fighters can reach everywhere they need to on the front.

[ax] copy that.

[ax] All three axis take land actions.

[ax] There's a 10% chance that this will be the last impulse of the turn.

[al] I daresay we both have our fingers crossed for that roll, albeit for opposing reasons.

[ax] Yes, I would like the turn continue and continue with fine weather (for now at least).

[ax] Naval Air. None.

[ax] Strategic Bombing. Japan hits the Chengtu (1 RP, 1 saved oil) with Nell Bomber (2 strat) escorted by A6M2 (Zero, 5 a2a). Do the Chinese wish to intercept?

[al] Yes.

[ax] Chengtu. Air-to-Air. (+2 axis, -2 allied).
Allied=14, no effect.
Axis=17, Chinese P-36A fighter shot down, PIL killed.

[al] So passes the Chinese Air Force.

[ax] Baa Baa Black Sheep. [:(]

[ax] Chengtu. Strategic Bombing.
Nell Bomber (2 strat)=5, no effect.

{I thought I was rebasing the bomber in range of being able to be reorg in order to have another go at that oil point. But I miscalculated and was unable to reorg the bomber at the end of my impulse.}

Japan. Strategic Bombing. Chengtu, China.

[rkr1958]

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #7. (continued).

[ax] Japan. 1 Ground Strike.
(1) Ki-51 (2 Tac) vs Nationalist 2-stack w/Chiang & MIL.

[ax] Germany. 2 Ground Strikes.
(1) 150 arty div (4 factors) vs French 4-stack (FTR2, arm, mech, AT gun) southeast of Lille.
(2) Ju 87B (5 factors) vs French 3-stack (Georges, VII inf, 105 mm arty div)
French intercept instructions?

[al] FTR2 in the stack getting bombarded by artillery intercepts the Stuka.

[ax] copy that.

[ax] Germany intercepts French fighter (France 54, 31).

[ax] Air-to-Air. France 54,31. (-1 axis, +1 allied).
MS 406=12, Ju 87B Stuka cleared.
Bf 109 E-4=3, French MS 406 shot down, PIL survives.

[ax] Ground Strike. Ju 87B Stuka vs 3-stack in France[54,31].
(1) vs VII Inf=8, missed.
(2) vs Georges HQ-I=5, flipped.
(3) vs 105 mm Arty div=7, missed.

[ax] Ground Strike. 150mm arty vs 3-stack in France[53,30].
(1) vs XIV Mech=8, missed.
(2) vs Chevalier armor=4, flipped.
(3) vs 47 mm A/T div=1, flipped.

Germany. France. Ground Strikes.

[rkr1958]

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #7. (continued).

[ax] Ground Strike. Japan. Ki-51 (2 Tac) vs 2-stack in China 86,136.
(1) vs Chiang=5, missed.
(2) vs Chungking MIL=2, flipped.

[ax] Rail. Japan x 1. Gar army from Chengchow to Wuhan.

[ax] Rail. Germany. None.

[ax] Rail. Italy. Milan MIL from Tranato to Turin, Italy.

[ax] Airborne Drop. Germany. II Para corps drops on Boulogue, France.

[ax] 37 mm AA div in Lille can fire. Lowest 1 of 6. Do you wish to fire?

[al] No thanks to AA on the paradrop.

[ax] Airborne drop made. German ATR returns to Calais, France.

[ax] Boulogne. Potential Land Combat. Include notionals. If you do, Germany can choose Blitz at +15.7.

[al] No notional.

[ax] copy that.

Western Front. German Airborne Drop. Boulogne, France.

[rkr1958]

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #7. (continued).

[ax] Japan Land Combat vs Chaing HQ-I & MIL.
China 86, 136.
Current odds are +6.667.
Japan has no air units in range to provide ground support.
You have 2 decisions.
(1) Does Chaing provide -0.5 HQ support?
(2) Assault or Blitz?

[ax] Also, Japan will have a +10.833 attack on Ichang too. Your choice of Assault of Blitz?

[ax] Attack on Chiang - Chiang will use HQ support. Blitz, please.
Attack on Ichang - Assault, please.

[ax] copy that.

[ax] Germany has a +20.5 Blitz (40.5:4) on the Lyons MIL in Belgium woods (54,32). You have a 3-factor 105 mm arty div that can provide 2 factors in ground support. Do you wish too?

[al] No, thank you.

[ax] By the way, the final odds on Ichang after Japanese ground support is 11.833. Still wish assault?

[al] Yes, please.

[ax] copy that.

[ax] Land Combat. Japan vs Nationalist 2-stack. China 86,136. +6.167 Blitz.
Fractional(167)=355, no. 2D10=13, Result=19.
Shattered result converted to retreat.
Japan loses Osaka MIL and flips 11th inf army, SNLF marine corps.

[al] Feeling pretty good about calling the blitz there. I would have lost both units on an assault.

[ax] I really wanted Chaing.

[ax] Nice call on the Blitz.

Japan. Southern China.