Notes from a Small Island

[BBfanboy]

Canoerebel: There was a time, as recently as two months ago, where I wondered if Allied moves here and on Hokkaido would trigger massive enemy counterattacks. Thus far, Erik is quiet. I think that's due to his supply situation more than anything else.

Looks to me like he has decided the only effort to stymie your Autovic will be preventing your Strategic Bombing campaign. He has seen that he cannot oppose you on land and sea and gain enough denominator VPs.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks for the tip, Ranger. I didn't know that. I don't have plans to invade anything other than high-value bases, at this point.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Canoerebel: There was a time, as recently as two months ago, where I wondered if Allied moves here and on Hokkaido would trigger massive enemy counterattacks. Thus far, Erik is quiet. I think that's due to his supply situation more than anything else.

Looks to me like he has decided the only effort to stymie your Autovic will be preventing your Strategic Bombing campaign. He has seen that he cannot oppose you on land and sea and gain enough denominator VPs.

That could be.

If he is going to counterattack, throwing everything at me, it'll be when the Allies invade Moppo.

[Canoerebel]

1/29/46

Only a few Allied units attacked - some armor and one or two infantry units. But they still managed a 1:1 and dropped forts to 7. This is bad news for Japan. A general attack to take place tomorrow, and a bunch of new infantry units will be up for the following attack.

Ground combat at Sapporo (120,51)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 69206 troops, 654 guns, 1881 vehicles, Assault Value = 4621

Defending force 85362 troops, 934 guns, 239 vehicles, Assault Value = 1527

Allied engineers reduce fortifications to 7

Allied adjusted assault: 1322

Japanese adjusted defense: 1259

Allied assault odds: 1 to 1 (fort level 7)

Allied Assault reduces fortifications to 7

Combat modifiers
Defender: forts(+), preparation(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
5339 casualties reported
Squads: 67 destroyed, 315 disabled
Non Combat: 29 destroyed, 79 disabled
Engineers: 5 destroyed, 41 disabled
Guns lost 40 (11 destroyed, 29 disabled)
Vehicles lost 20 (12 destroyed, 8 disabled)
Units destroyed 1

Allied ground losses:
1612 casualties reported
Squads: 10 destroyed, 120 disabled
Non Combat: 4 destroyed, 69 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 56 disabled
Guns lost 17 (5 destroyed, 12 disabled)
Vehicles lost 87 (6 destroyed, 81 disabled)

Assaulting units:
4th Armoured Brigade
77th Infantry Division
1st Royal Marine Division
671th Tank Destroyer Battalion
819th Towed Tank Destroyer Battalion
3rd NZ Brigade
3rd Regiment
20th Armored Division
44th Infantry Division
9th Armoured Brigade
X Corps Engineer Regiment
8th Infantry Division
IX Corps Combat Engineer Regiment
4th Infantry Division
13th Armored Division
719th Flame Tank Battalion
28th Infantry Division
5th USMC Tank Battalion
131st Combat Engineer Regiment
7th Infantry Division
640th Tank Destroyer Battalion
3rd USMC Field Artillery Battalion
V Corps Artillery
I US Corps
205th Field Artillery Battalion
Provisional GMC Grp

Defending units:
43rd Division
36th Ind.Mixed Brigade
35th Ind.Mixed Brigade
7th Division
114th Division
Nanking Naval Guard Unit
68th Brigade
8th Division
129th Ind.Mixed Brigade
71st Division
77th Division
59th Ind.Mixed Brigade
85th Naval Guard Unit
31st Army
33rd RF Gun Battalion
31st Med. Field Artillery Battalion
1st JAAF AF Bn
2nd Base Force
1st Ind. Field Artillery Battalion
67th Ind. AA Battalion
33rd Army
23rd Machine Canno AA Battalion
31st Air Defense AA Regiment
141st AA Regiment
70th Ind.Mixed Brigade
3rd Hvy.Artillery Regiment
15th Special Base Force
73rd JAAF AF Bn

[Canoerebel]

1/29/46

Opening Allied attack comes off at 4:1, so it won't take long to take this high-numerator base. All the Allied reserve units can begin prepping for other targets.

Collectively, Sapporo and Naha will provide 25% of the points needed to achieve AV - roughly 2500 out of 10,000.

Ground combat at Naha (95,66)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 71586 troops, 970 guns, 1763 vehicles, Assault Value = 2010

Defending force 25940 troops, 243 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 672

Allied engineers reduce fortifications to 5

Allied adjusted assault: 2614

Japanese adjusted defense: 597

Allied assault odds: 4 to 1 (fort level 5)

Allied Assault reduces fortifications to 5

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), disruption(-), preparation(-)
experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
4178 casualties reported
Squads: 111 destroyed, 211 disabled
Non Combat: 4 destroyed, 40 disabled
Engineers: 13 destroyed, 10 disabled
Guns lost 62 (17 destroyed, 45 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
715 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 69 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 27 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 37 disabled
Guns lost 23 (2 destroyed, 21 disabled)
Vehicles lost 59 (2 destroyed, 57 disabled)

Assaulting units:
711th Tank Battalion
193rd Tank Battalion
XIV Corps Combat Engineer Regiment
710th Tank Battalion
Eighth Army Combat Engineer Regiment
32nd Infantry Division
766th Tank Battalion
93rd Infantry Division
762nd Tank Battalion
7th Australian Division
694th Field Artillery Battalion
543 & 545 Field Artillery Battalion
165th Field Artillery Battalion
249th Field Artillery Battalion
544th Field Artillery Battalion
225th Field Artillery Battalion
XV Indian Corps
X Corps Artillery
85/88/98th Mortar Regiment
IX Corps Artillery
131st Field Artillery Battalion

Defending units:
25th Ind.Mixed Regiment
83rd Ind.Mixed Brigade
133rd Division
5th Garrison Unit /2
Okinawa Naval Base Force
14th Air Fleet /1

[JohnDillworth]

I do believe that supply does not automatically flow between the North Island and the main island of Japan. Supply is definitely an issue and the only way to bring more is by ship. I presume you have that shut down. Also, if he is bringing troops, the will have to come by air. Supply is gassed

[RangerJoe]

Yes, supply has to be shipped to Hokkaido and excess resources and oil needs to be shipped out.

[Canoerebel]

I'm not interdicting shipping traffic from Honshu to Hakodate (the southernmost Hokkaido port). Erik has transferred some divisions/reinforcements via that route, but that's helpful since the Allies have overwhelming superiority. He's reinforcing defeat. But at some point I may shut down traffic to prevent an evacuation. He doesn't seem to be bringing in supply. There's been a consistent supply malus for every engagement that's taken place on the island, and he's probably too short on Honshu to do so.

[RangerJoe]

Would you consider putting in some sub laid minefields in the shallow hex between Honshu and Hokkaido? That might help slow things down when you want to shut the door. Some DD raiders would also help.

[Canoerebel]

Yeah, a blockade would include patrolling DDs and mines.

Way back in late '44, Allied subs dropped mines around Hakodate and claimed a handful of ships, mostly small fry.

On a separate note, Yamato took six torpedoes near Wakkanai way back during the hard fighting around that base. There were little snippets of info thereafter indicating she didn't sink. Just got another one that she "sank" a few days ago "near Osaka/Kyoto." I'm sure that didn't happen. Erik may be shifting her to various small ports in the vicinity, trying to keep her hidden. Many of his ports are under recon but not all of them. For a long time, I thought he might've moved her to the Marianas or vicinity, but perhaps she's still in the Home Islands.

[Canoerebel]

1/30/46

Sapporo: Allied attack at 2:1 drops forts to six and inflicts very heavy casualties on the Japanese. This base could fall in four or five days. To keep the enemy bottled up by severing the only path of retreat, an APD TF is tasked with dropping paratroopers on the rail hex west of Sapporo tonight.

Okinawa: 5:1 attack at Naha drops forts to 4 and causes heavy enemy casualties. This base may fall tomorrow.

Eyes on Victory: Japanese lead a bit over 10k; Sapporo and Naha give the Allies 2.5k. Muroran and Hakodata offer 2k. Naga (Okinawa), Pescadores and Hong Kong give the Allies 1.9k. That leaves just about 3.5k needed. A fair bit of that will come from the destruction of enemy units. Unless Erik figures out a way to inflict meaningful casualties on the Allies, the game should end in perhaps two weeks. I hope he figures out a satisfying way. If he spent the last year-plus doing nothing at all...how unsatisfying a plod for him. No fun. (He's already mentioned that he doesn't intend to play as Japan again, which is a shame. He's a great player. But doing nothing for a year's worth of turns? Blech.)

[JeffroK]

Is he planning the mother of all kamikaze attacks??

Would liven it up a bit.

[modrow]

ORIGINAL: JeffroK

Is he planning the mother of all kamikaze attacks??

Would liven it up a bit.

Would end it quickly IMO, denying him any chance to the last kind of victory he can obtain - managing to survive till the end.

My current feeling is that point-wise Kamis are rarely a reasonable investment for IJ.

Just my views.

Hartwig

[Bearcat2]

"Now we could do it with conventional weapons, but that could take years and cost millions of lives. No, I think we have to go all out. I think that this situation absolutely requires a really futile and stupid gesture be done on somebody's part!" -Eric "Otter" Stratton

[Canoerebel]

In this case, I'm not sure the conventional experience holds true for Erik's kamikaze corps. It's 1946. He's only used them once (in early 1945) in modest numbers. He's had well over a year to train them and accumulate the best airframes, including the turbojet and other fast aircraft. If he massed them, he might (or might not) score efficiently on a big scale. I can imagine the possibility of a CVE massacre, where he loses 1500 aircraft and I lose 25 CVEs. That would be a points victory for him - a big one, since 2:1 is the yardstick for Allied victory.

I know why Erik hasn't employed his kamis yet. I'm determined not to give him that window, and I don't think it'll be necessary. IE, I don't think an invasion of Moppo will be needed to achieve victory.

Erik probably had his best chance around May 1945, when the entire Allied fleet reported to Kushiro, Hokkaido, to take aboard an Allied army bound for China. The fleet, including the CVEs, was within range of many large Japanese airfields. He elected not to attack, biding his time for a better set-up, but that may have been his last best shot.

[Canoerebel]

1/31/46

Striving for Victory: A good day, as the victory level drops to 9k. The conquest of Naha and effective strat bombing vs. Fukuoka were the two drivers, while Sapporo is about to fall and an enemy army outside Canton was nearly destroyed.

There could be last minute setbacks, of course. But at the present rate, the game is going to come to a quiet, non-boisterous conclusion in a week or two.

[BBfanboy]

Nice progress!
BTW, the other base on Okinawa is Nago. Naga is in the Philippines. The bad news is that it is a very slow march - about 2 weeks to get there on foot. If the fort is suppressed, and Amphib landing would be faster (assuming fully prepped troops are available).

[Canoerebel]

I'll probably let them march. I do have an army prepping for Nago (thanks for the correct spelling) and can insert if needed. But invasions are inherently risky and putting it together would take about as much time as the overland march.

[Canoerebel]

I think there are many of us following the AAR for the match between Obvert and Lowpe. That came to a sudden end early this week. Quite of few Forumites have posted congratulations, but overall the traffic has been pretty slow. These big, long games tend to end with a whisper.

That's what's going to happen here, too. For a year, I've been certain that Erik had the means to trigger a massive counterattack and was biding his time. But it's increasingly likely that Japan is running on fumes and he missed his last best chance. So the Allied juggernaut gathers steam and is making big strides towards victory. Sometime in the next week or two, that horribly weak trumpet flourish will announce 2:1 and the game will end. It will end with Erik expressing relief that the long slog is over. And the game will limp into the history books with little notice or reason to be noticed.

I've had a blast with the game. The only thing that's tarnished it, for me, is the growing realization that Japan is just broken (I think).

[RangerJoe]

Well, you could ask him not to attack a large amphibious convoy carrying millions of supplies that you happen to dump on the shores of Honshu. [;)]

No troops, just supplies. Maybe fuel as well.