OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version

[CaptBeefheart]

There was some talk of air conditioning earlier on this thread. I know of one case in Korea early on where a Covid carrier was sitting near an upright air con unit at a restaurant and spread it to other patrons in the air con's path.

As I've mentioned before, I think there's only so long you can keep people cooped up. Luckily, here in Korea people did a lot of self-quarantining early on. People have made their own decisions as businesses, with very few exceptions, have not been been forced to shut down. By now, however, people are out in force. I doubt there are many people sheltering-in-place. Thankfully mask wearing is not a political issue and people just do it. You are required to wear one on public transport, which includes taxis, but that's about it for government requirements. We now have about 50 new cases a day (we were once down to about 6), but I think that's generally accepted. Life goes on.

New Zealand is an interesting case in that it has all but defeated the virus. It would be interesting to get a Kiwi viewpoint on this thread. Here's a piece from a libertarian perspective that questions the country's approach: New Zealand will be left behind with 'Covid-hysteria'. As someone who relies on international trade for business myself, I'm sympathetic to a lot in the piece.

Here's a quote: "Eventually, isolation means penury. If we cannot trade and travel our economy will become increasingly detached from the rest of the world. Commercial relationships will atrophy. Domestic tourist sites will become abandoned and new facilities will not be constructed. As the rest of the world moves on from Covid-hysteria, we will be left behind."

Cheers,
CB

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

There was some talk of air conditioning earlier on this thread. I know of one case in Korea early on where a Covid carrier was sitting near an upright air con unit at a restaurant and spread it to other patrons in the air con's path.

As I've mentioned before, I think there's only so long you can keep people cooped up. Luckily, here in Korea people did a lot of self-quarantining early on. People have made their own decisions as businesses, with very few exceptions, have not been been forced to shut down. By now, however, people are out in force. I doubt there are many people sheltering-in-place. Thankfully mask wearing is not a political issue and people just do it. You are required to wear one on public transport, which includes taxis, but that's about it for government requirements. We now have about 50 new cases a day (we were once down to about 6), but I think that's generally accepted. Life goes on.

New Zealand is an interesting case in that it has all but defeated the virus. It would be interesting to get a Kiwi viewpoint on this thread. Here's a piece from a libertarian perspective that questions the country's approach: New Zealand will be left behind with 'Covid-hysteria'. As someone who relies on international trade for business myself, I'm sympathetic to a lot in the piece.

Here's a quote: "Eventually, isolation means penury. If we cannot trade and travel our economy will become increasingly detached from the rest of the world. Commercial relationships will atrophy. Domestic tourist sites will become abandoned and new facilities will not be constructed. As the rest of the world moves on from Covid-hysteria, we will be left behind."

Cheers,
CB

Sounds like any fan in that restaurant could have spread the virus. The question about A/C is whether the cooling makes the virus survive longer.

As for NZ - because it moved early, fast and firmly it was first to become virus free, but that was then spoiled by a tourist who broke quarantine and then tested positive. The PM will have army troops enforcing the quarantine now. But in the longer term, the time to open up tourist travel is when other countries have gotten their cases to near 0 and NZ can take a chance on tourists from those countries arriving without quarantine. Distancing will still be required for some time. But the assertion that NZ will be forever shut down is patently not true.

[sPzAbt653]

only one store actually required masks.

All of the stores and restaurants here [Maryland, USA] have signs on the doors that say you 'You Must Wear A Mask When Entering This Business'. All of the employees are wearing masks. The casinos opened and people are wearing masks while gambling and drinking whiskey and smoking. It's bizarro world.

I didn't know that Mask Wearing had a political strand, so when I posted the Movie Question earlier I thought there was an understanding that I was referring to the possible health issue. That there are some reports to the opposite is typical for the virus reporting, but I was curious what other moviegoers thoughts were, from a health perspective. And of course, how do you enjoy your snacks with a mask on. Do we just sit and stare at them? lol.

Wearing a mask incorrectly while healthy might actually make you sick
https://kslnewsradio.com/1920141/wearing-a-mask/?

[JohnDillworth]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Mortality continues its long decline in the US, which you wouldn't surmise from the news media reports.

Positive tests/active cases continue to rise, so perhaps things are destined to change.

As I posted here yesterday, hospitalizations in my area and in the state as a whole continue to decline, even as positive tests go up. I don't know if this is consistent with other states, but it suggests that there are a lot of fairly mild cases that aren't transitioning into serious ones (not yet, anyway). In my county, total mortality is 15, the same number for the past 29 days.

I read yesterday that the average age of a person with Covid has dropped from 47 to 33. Cases are being spread by and to younger people at bars, clubs, parties and fraternity events. I believe it was the Washington Post. Anyway, that would make some sense why the cases are going up, but the mortality is going down. Still not good. Even in New York, where the level is way down and localized to a couple of zip codes (zip codes can be a less than a square mile or two in some places) we just can't seem to shake this completely. Rates a low, almost imperceptible, but we can't extinguish it. I find that troubling. When a house burns down the fire department continues to run water on it for a couple of hours because even a single ember could reignite the conflagration. The "new normal" might be fighting embers for a long time as the best case

[Canoerebel]

Yes, I think that might be the case. A corollary is that we're better at protecting the most vulnerable - the elderly. So there are rising case numbers, partly due to increasing testing, partly to the young and healthy now catching it, partly to some plants (meat-packing, textile) having outbreaks. But mortality is dropping because the outbreaks aren't reaching the nursing homes very often. We've learned and adapted (and will have to continue doing so).

[John 3rd]

As far as I understand the numbers, if you have no immunity issues and are not elderly, you have a 99.5% chance of getting thru COVID without major issue. If true, I'll take those odds any day.

I was laid flat for two weeks earlier in the year with an 'undiagnosed respiratory illness.' Was down for about 10 days, contracted shingles (don't wish that on ANYONE), and then recovered. Since this was before there was wide spread testing available it is my thought that I had this stuff. My Doctor recently saw me and she told me that, looking back on it, I probably had an early case confirming what I thought.

[Canoerebel]

Yer making that up. Actually, you had just lost 16 carriers following an ill-advised raid on Port Stanley, marooning KB 29 hexes SE of Tahiti without fuel. You couldn't bring yourself to run a turn for ten days and sent this email to your opponent: "Dude, I just came down with Covid. I have a doctor's appointment next week. I'll get a turn back to you after National Sub Month in August."

[JohnDillworth]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Yes, I think that might be the case. A corollary is that we're better at protecting the most vulnerable - the elderly. So there are rising case numbers, partly due to increasing testing, partly to the young and healthy now catching it, partly to some plants (meat-packing, textile) having outbreaks. But mortality is dropping because the outbreaks aren't reaching the nursing homes very often. We've learned and adapted (and will have to continue doing so).

es, I think that might be the case. A corollary is that we're better at protecting the most vulnerable - the elderly. So there are rising case numbers, partly due to increasing testing, partly to the young and healthy now catching it, partly to some plants (meat-packing, textile) having outbreaks. But mortality is dropping because the outbreaks aren't reaching the nursing homes very often. We've learned and adapted (and will have to continue doing so).

I do not share your optimism. The United States is now recording 20% of the new cases worldwide with 4% of the Worlds population. This is a new statistic. 22 States are reporting net increases, Washington States Governor is reporting Yakima County is now near "the breaking point" and Florida has just reported it's 100,000 case, Oklahoma and Missouri reported their largest single-day case increases yet and nationally recognized infectious disease expert, Dr. Peter Hotez of the Baylor College of Medicine says if current trends continue Houston could become the worst affected city in the U.S rivaling Brazil in severity. I'm adapting as quick as I can but I can recognize when the river is going to rise past it's banks. I do not believe we are even remotely headed in the right direction. This is not a "second wave", this is still an unmitigated first wave and if the summer heat is going to slow this thing down the climate in Houston has changed quite a bit since my last visit. That place is as hot as balls.

[Canoerebel]

You're not sharing my optimism of your optimism? You're disagreeing with yourself? [&:]

[:)]

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Yes, I think that might be the case. A corollary is that we're better at protecting the most vulnerable - the elderly. So there are rising case numbers, partly due to increasing testing, partly to the young and healthy now catching it, partly to some plants (meat-packing, textile) having outbreaks. But mortality is dropping because the outbreaks aren't reaching the nursing homes very often. We've learned and adapted (and will have to continue doing so).

es, I think that might be the case. A corollary is that we're better at protecting the most vulnerable - the elderly. So there are rising case numbers, partly due to increasing testing, partly to the young and healthy now catching it, partly to some plants (meat-packing, textile) having outbreaks. But mortality is dropping because the outbreaks aren't reaching the nursing homes very often. We've learned and adapted (and will have to continue doing so).

I do not share your optimism. The United States is now recording 20% of the new cases worldwide with 4% of the Worlds population. This is a new statistic. 22 States are reporting net increases, Washington States Governor is reporting Yakima County is now near "the breaking point" and Florida has just reported it's 100,000 case, Oklahoma and Missouri reported their largest single-day case increases yet and nationally recognized infectious disease expert, Dr. Peter Hotez of the Baylor College of Medicine says if current trends continue Houston could become the worst affected city in the U.S rivaling Brazil in severity. I'm adapting as quick as I can but I can recognize when the river is going to rise past it's banks. I do not believe we are even remotely headed in the right direction. this is not a "second wave" and if the summer heat is going to slow this thing down the climate in Houston has changed quite a bit since my last visit.

+1 to your comments John, except for the % of world cases part. It looks like much of the developing world are not bothering to get accurate counts of COVID deaths so there are probably a good deal more and the US share would likely be lower than 20%. But the comparison with the rest of the world is valid in one sense - compared to less developed countries the USA should be faring far better, but it isn't doing as well as it could.

To an outsider, it looks like optimism is an American trait that is not serving you well at this time. I feel for those who have lost relatively healthy family to the virus - there are enough stories out there to think that middle aged folks have significant risk too.

[JohnDillworth]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

You're not sharing my optimism of your optimism? You're disagreeing with yourself? [&:]

[:)]

My fondest wish for the entire country is that we knock this thing back to a low enough level that we can get everyone back to school for the next semester and be confident that the kids stay in school. You kids and my kids are older now but the mothers of the grammar school children have had enough of our foolishness. If the kids don't go back to school pitchforks and torches are just the start. These women (and men in many cases) are dangerous

[Canoerebel]

[&:]

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

[&:]

NYC prides itself on "hot-blooded" women - a trait that can cut both ways!

[Canoerebel]

I don't view myself as optimistic, but I understand why that's the perception to others.

As for it not being a positive trait, yikes.

We're in the midst of a grave crisis, but few of us are feeling it personally. Most of us are doing wonderfully (power, food, shelter, healthy families, jobs, etc.). There are a lot of people suffering or under the gravest stress, but most of us are just fine and really absolutely blessed beyond measure.

Nah, I'm not feeling very pessimistic.

[obvert]

One of the interesting things IHME has been doing is listing what they "assume" (I'm guessing through studies done on likelihood of a high asymptomatic rate of infection) are the actual case numbers derived from the actual testing numbers, hospital cases, etc.

It's daunting when number look a whole lot bigger than actually reported to think cases can get down to the level where actual contact tracing and isolation could be effective.

A lot of states that seemed to be doing very well seem now not to be doing so well.

New outbreaks are happening all over, but it's interesting to look at the numbers. South Korea are considering new social distancing measures if cases keep rising, yet they're reporting less than 100 new cases a day. The UK has been on the downward slope for a long time, and is opening virtually everything in stages through July, but has only just been starting to dip below 1,000 new cases a day.

If the total actual cases are indeed almost four times the testing rate (or more as some scientists have thought), every day the spread is just that much more difficult to control in places where the numbers are still rising.

[John 3rd]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Yer making that up. Actually, you had just lost 16 carriers following an ill-advised raid on Port Stanley, marooning KB 29 hexes SE of Tahiti without fuel. You couldn't bring yourself to run a turn for ten days and sent this email to your opponent: "Dude, I just came down with Covid. I have a doctor's appointment next week. I'll get a turn back to you after National Sub Month in August."

Funny boy.

There is no National Sub Month or I would have USED it![:D]

[Sammy5IsAlive]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Yes, I think that might be the case. A corollary is that we're better at protecting the most vulnerable - the elderly. So there are rising case numbers, partly due to increasing testing, partly to the young and healthy now catching it, partly to some plants (meat-packing, textile) having outbreaks. But mortality is dropping because the outbreaks aren't reaching the nursing homes very often. We've learned and adapted (and will have to continue doing so).

es, I think that might be the case. A corollary is that we're better at protecting the most vulnerable - the elderly. So there are rising case numbers, partly due to increasing testing, partly to the young and healthy now catching it, partly to some plants (meat-packing, textile) having outbreaks. But mortality is dropping because the outbreaks aren't reaching the nursing homes very often. We've learned and adapted (and will have to continue doing so).

I do not share your optimism. The United States is now recording 20% of the new cases worldwide with 4% of the Worlds population. This is a new statistic. 22 States are reporting net increases, Washington States Governor is reporting Yakima County is now near "the breaking point" and Florida has just reported it's 100,000 case, Oklahoma and Missouri reported their largest single-day case increases yet and nationally recognized infectious disease expert, Dr. Peter Hotez of the Baylor College of Medicine says if current trends continue Houston could become the worst affected city in the U.S rivaling Brazil in severity. I'm adapting as quick as I can but I can recognize when the river is going to rise past it's banks. I do not believe we are even remotely headed in the right direction. This is not a "second wave", this is still an unmitigated first wave and if the summer heat is going to slow this thing down the climate in Houston has changed quite a bit since my last visit. That place is as hot as balls.

For the the situation in terms of the data is somewhere between the extremes.

In the UK at least it seems that at the worst of it cases were probably doubling every 3 days. In Texas and Florida they have doubled in a week. California's cases have doubled over 3 weeks, Georgia looks somewhat similar. So if you are just working off case numbers those states have a bit more time to tailor their responses and tighten things up if necessary.

The numbers for deaths suggest that that 'window of opportunity' to intervene might be even more extended.

Where I share your concern in the US (and similarly in the UK) is the ability/willingness of both officials and the public to take advantage of that extended window. But that's politics so I can't expand further.

For those that haven't seen it Angela Merkel gave a very succinct account of the consequences of R rates at different levels over 1. The long and the short of it (IIRC) was that from a German perspective even at a small amount over 1 the virus would be unmanageable by October. Put bluntly if the daily cases are going up a government (at whatever level) needs to do something because the situation won't just resolve itself. The sooner they intervene the less economically and socially painful those measures need to be.

[Edit - one other way of looking at todays numbers as a 'snapshot'. The current CFR for the US as a whole is 5%. Lets say hypothetically that due to the increasing in testing it is now at 1.25%. That would have:

California seeing 61 deaths from todays cases (current 7 day ave 64)
Texas seeing 56 (current ave 28)
Florida seeing 37 (current ave 33)

So you have California staying around the same in terms of deaths and with daily case numbers increasing slowly.
Florida staying the same but cases doubling every week.
Texas doubling in deaths maybe every 2 weeks and in cases every week.

So you have Texas already going up in terms of deaths. Cali and Fla flattening out at the 'bottom of the curve' but on their way to rising significantly also unless the CFR halves at the same rate that the case numbers double - which seems to me to be unlikely at this point.

None of the above necessarily says what the right course of action is. As awful the consequences would be on an individual level for those affected I think it would be well within the reasonable range of responses for those states to treat the Swedish benchmark of 500 deaths/million pop as a balanced exchange for keeping the economy going. For Texas that would equate to the total death toll rising from 2.2k as it is now to 14.5k. EndEdit]

[Canoerebel]

The situation in the US is interesting and counterintuitive. Something has to give, soon.

1. The 7-day rolling average continues its long decline. That's good.
2. The 7-day rolling average of new cases is increasing, as the improving situation in NY and vicinity is more than countered by increases elsewhere. That's not good.
3. With cases rising, how can mortality be dropping? If it's the lag period, then mortality will soon increase. The gradual decline in new cases ended about two weeks ago, so rising mortality should kick in soon, if there's a correlation (as you'd expect).
4. Cases have been rising in Georgia since about May 25, but mortality continues to decline steadily. If there is a lag in Georgia, it's nearing a month. That's long enough to begin to strain credibility.
5. Could the new cases be more often asymptomatic or mild, so that not as many are hospitalized or dying? Maybe. In my county, we've had a steady increase in new cases over the past month or more, but the number of hospitalizations is holding steady at seven. Ditto total mortality at 15 (no new deaths since late May).

But maybe this county and state are outliers, the data flattering only to deceive. We should know soon - local, state and nationwide.

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

......Something has to give, soon.

warspite1

Does it though? There has been talk for some time that the virus is growing weaker. Maybe that is true. There has to be some reason for what we are seeing - but a surprising lack of explanation.

[Canoerebel]

That's the point I'm making.

Either mortality has to begin rising, coincident with rising new cases, or else there's no meaningful correlation between the two. Something has to give.