OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version

[Canoerebel]

Where there's evidence of dishonesty or bad faith, let's call it out. But in this thread there are all kinds of allegations of shameful conduct, stupidity and of maliciousness/bad faith leaders when, IMO, the person making the post doesn't know. They're relying on information from other sources that may or may not be credible and may or may not be biased.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

Politicians and Governments (at whatever level) are very rarely evil. I think that the vast majority are not stupid. Most try to act in what they see as the best interests of their 'constituents' (even if we might sometimes disagree significantly on the means by which that is achieved). But that doesn't mean that they are honest.

Looking at three examples from the UK:

1) For along time in our daily briefings from the government they were showing a slide comparing the UK with other European countries. It was frequently referred to as an example of how the UK response was performing well. When over time the UK overtook Italy/Spain/France the slide was discarded with and the political message changed to it being 'premature to draw country by country comparisions'

2) Our government set itself a target of performing 100k daily tests by a certain date. When it came towards that date the testing numbers shot up. It then became apparent that they were basing the numbers to a large extent on tests sent by post, many of which were faulty, many never returned.

3) The government's line is still that a 'protective ring' was placed around UK care homes. That is demonstrably false.

I don't dispute that the UK government has been trying to do it's best by the country. But the simple fact is that it is clear that they really dropped the ball. I would suggest that it is similarly clear that where possible they are trying to suppress that.

It's completely sensible to question the media and its motives as has been done at length in this thread and the previous one. But by the same measure it is completely naive to unquestioningly assume the honesty/probity of politicians, governments and the institutions under their control or influence (on both sides of the 'left/right' divide).

I have some European friends that are frankly baffled by events in the UK. The dispute over the testing numbers, then SpAd-gate...

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe




California had a large stockpile of equipment but five million dollars per year was too much to maintain it. New York city had a stockpile, it disappeared before this time as well. Why should it be up to the Federal government?

I'd say that the examples you gave are a really good reason for why there should be resources at the federal level. Especially since the states you mentioned have constitutional mandates to have a balanced budget (which makes sense, since they can't control their own currency as they don't have one).

Anyway, what did they even have stockpiled?

They had ventilators, masks, and other equipment. I had posted on this previously. It would only have cost California five million US dollars per year to maintain the stockpile so don't tell me that California could not have afforded it. So why should the Federal government control the resources when the state and local governments should have it so it can be immediately used if it is needed?

My thought was not so much that the Federal Government should hold the stockpile (although a national security argument could be made for that); I was thinking instead of 50 states all checking with each other (2500 lines of communications?), it would be simple for FEMA to declare key medical equipment "national assets in the event of an emergency" and require every state to report weekly the location and availability of those assets in their state. From that database, states could check on the whereabouts of stuff they need for an emergency and ask FEMA to arrange transfer. FEMA would be the central point of contact because several states could simultaneously need the same equipment. So now you have 51 lines of communication rather than 2500.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

I have some European friends that are frankly baffled by events in the UK. The dispute over the testing numbers, then SpAd-gate...

What is SpAd-gate? I couldn't get anything about it on Google.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Where there's evidence of dishonesty or bad faith, let's call it out. But in this thread there are all kinds of allegations of shameful conduct, stupidity and of maliciousness/bad faith leaders when, IMO, the person making the post doesn't know. They're relying on information from other sources that may or may not be credible and may or may not be biased.

I think we are on the same wavelength CR. The truth is usually between polar opposites so I see the Chinese as fumbling the handling of the virus because they did not appreciate that it could be a pandemic at first. They are prone to suppress local information as an "internal matter that is no other country's business to ask about". They also did not know what to say about the virus because they were still learning stuff.

So they did suppress some info but because they didn't think anyone else needed to know. Once it was clearly headed around the world, they joined the scientific community in trying to get a handle on it. At the same time, other countries had enough indications that it could be a problem to prepare responses and didn't do so because they hoped it was contained in China. When assessing risk, the two dimensions are:
1. low to high probability
2. low to high impact

Given the death tolls being reported in China (with evidence they were under-reporting the numbers), our leaders should have given the second point a high rating and that is reason to prepare for the worst.

[Sammy5IsAlive]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

I have some European friends that are frankly baffled by events in the UK. The dispute over the testing numbers, then SpAd-gate...

What is SpAd-gate? I couldn't get anything about it on Google.

I think he is talking about Dominic Cummings.

In UK politics SpAd is an abbreviation for 'Special Advisor' - i.e. a high level non-elected official working within the government but outside of the in theory impartial Civil Service. In theory (again!) they are supposed to be entirely subordinate to the elected officials they serve.

Happy to be corrected if I have misunderstood...

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

I have some European friends that are frankly baffled by events in the UK. The dispute over the testing numbers, then SpAd-gate...

What is SpAd-gate? I couldn't get anything about it on Google.

I think he is talking about Dominic Cummings.

In UK politics SpAd is an abbreviation for 'Special Advisor' - i.e. a high level non-elected official working within the government but outside of the in theory impartial Civil Service. In theory (again!) they are supposed to be entirely subordinate to the elected officials they serve.

Happy to be corrected if I have misunderstood...

I am familiar with the several controversies around Mr. Cummings because I watch BBC News frequently. I hope his eyes are working well now ... enough said!

[Sammy5IsAlive]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

Politicians and Governments (at whatever level) are very rarely evil. I think that the vast majority are not stupid. Most try to act in what they see as the best interests of their 'constituents' (even if we might sometimes disagree significantly on the means by which that is achieved). But that doesn't mean that they are honest.

Looking at three examples from the UK:

1) For along time in our daily briefings from the government they were showing a slide comparing the UK with other European countries. It was frequently referred to as an example of how the UK response was performing well. When over time the UK overtook Italy/Spain/France the slide was discarded with and the political message changed to it being 'premature to draw country by country comparisions'

2) Our government set itself a target of performing 100k daily tests by a certain date. When it came towards that date the testing numbers shot up. It then became apparent that they were basing the numbers to a large extent on tests sent by post, many of which were faulty, many never returned.

3) The government's line is still that a 'protective ring' was placed around UK care homes. That is demonstrably false.

I don't dispute that the UK government has been trying to do it's best by the country. But the simple fact is that it is clear that they really dropped the ball. I would suggest that it is similarly clear that where possible they are trying to suppress that.

It's completely sensible to question the media and its motives as has been done at length in this thread and the previous one. But by the same measure it is completely naive to unquestioningly assume the honesty/probity of politicians, governments and the institutions under their control or influence (on both sides of the 'left/right' divide).

I have some European friends that are frankly baffled by events in the UK. The dispute over the testing numbers, then SpAd-gate...

Ha just realised that by talking about the UK I've dragged Scotland (and NI/Wales) into what were almost universally English failings [:'(] .

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

Ha just realised that by talking about the UK I've dragged Scotland (and NI/Wales) into what were almost universally English failings [:'(] .

Easy now! Let's not start any semi-international incidents! [:D]

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna



I'd say that the examples you gave are a really good reason for why there should be resources at the federal level. Especially since the states you mentioned have constitutional mandates to have a balanced budget (which makes sense, since they can't control their own currency as they don't have one).

Anyway, what did they even have stockpiled?

They had ventilators, masks, and other equipment. I had posted on this previously. It would only have cost California five million US dollars per year to maintain the stockpile so don't tell me that California could not have afforded it. So why should the Federal government control the resources when the state and local governments should have it so it can be immediately used if it is needed?

My thought was not so much that the Federal Government should hold the stockpile (although a national security argument could be made for that); I was thinking instead of 50 states all checking with each other (2500 lines of communications?), it would be simple for FEMA to declare key medical equipment "national assets in the event of an emergency" and require every state to report weekly the location and availability of those assets in their state. From that database, states could check on the whereabouts of stuff they need for an emergency and ask FEMA to arrange transfer. FEMA would be the central point of contact because several states could simultaneously need the same equipment. So now you have 51 lines of communication rather than 2500.

I agree that the federal government should coordinate information and be a clearing house for information. Not just for this but for other things as well such as education.

Some of the equipment that California had was dispensed for wildfires (the masks) while the ventilators were passed out to local organizations. Those local organizations, if they did not need the ventilators, usually sold them. They were probably sold to middlemen and probably left the country.

The masks are needed by the firefighting people, were issued but then not replaced. A stockpile of those will only be good for 5 years after manufacturing so there should have been a system of Last In - First Out but keeping an average of 4 years supply on hand. Something to consider for the future. No, the manufacturers should not be required to have the stockpile.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

Politicians and Governments (at whatever level) are very rarely evil. I think that the vast majority are not stupid. Most try to act in what they see as the best interests of their 'constituents' (even if we might sometimes disagree significantly on the means by which that is achieved). But that doesn't mean that they are honest.

Looking at three examples from the UK:

1) For along time in our daily briefings from the government they were showing a slide comparing the UK with other European countries. It was frequently referred to as an example of how the UK response was performing well. When over time the UK overtook Italy/Spain/France the slide was discarded with and the political message changed to it being 'premature to draw country by country comparisions'

2) Our government set itself a target of performing 100k daily tests by a certain date. When it came towards that date the testing numbers shot up. It then became apparent that they were basing the numbers to a large extent on tests sent by post, many of which were faulty, many never returned.

3) The government's line is still that a 'protective ring' was placed around UK care homes. That is demonstrably false.

I don't dispute that the UK government has been trying to do it's best by the country. But the simple fact is that it is clear that they really dropped the ball. I would suggest that it is similarly clear that where possible they are trying to suppress that.

It's completely sensible to question the media and its motives as has been done at length in this thread and the previous one. But by the same measure it is completely naive to unquestioningly assume the honesty/probity of politicians, governments and the institutions under their control or influence (on both sides of the 'left/right' divide).

I have some European friends that are frankly baffled by events in the UK. The dispute over the testing numbers, then SpAd-gate...

Ha just realised that by talking about the UK I've dragged Scotland (and NI/Wales) into what were almost universally English failings [:'(] .

What has been interesting is to look at the metrics.

In terms of the stats per capita, the devolved administrations don't seem to be massively different from the overall UK picture.

Recent polling seems to suggest is that the major difference has been in the communications from the devolved administrations to the public and the perceptions thereof.

On top of that, Sturgeon and Foster (unsure about Drakeford - Wales tends to go under my radar) have both been willing to push back against attempts to "force the pace" of easing restrictions and diverge from the overall UK policy.

That's combined to drive a perception of them having handled the crisis better that isn't really reflected in the metrics.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Where there's evidence of dishonesty or bad faith, let's call it out. But in this thread there are all kinds of allegations of shameful conduct, stupidity and of maliciousness/bad faith leaders when, IMO, the person making the post doesn't know. They're relying on information from other sources that may or may not be credible and may or may not be biased.

You're very defensive about Georgia and the South. No one else wishes that the Southern states do poorly, in fact quite the opposite. The posts that you respond to with such force are usually calling out decisions that don't meet standards for how best practice dealing with this pandemic should operate as shown by countries that have been hit earlier and by recommendations from the WHO and experts in the States.

When I (and others) criticised the early Georgia reopening it wasn't political, I was human concern. If a [R] or [D] is in the governor's seat I for one usually don't even know, and don't care who they are if they're doing best by the people of their state.

The reopening in most of the US states now having problems were all done before cases were reduced sufficiently to protect better against a big second wave. All areas will have a second wave, as we now see. It's just how big and how controllable will it be?

Do governments manage it as Germany has, by getting numbers very low before opening, having a very successful track and trace system in place, and strong mask wearing social distancing measures still operating? Do they then swiftly close outbreaks into pockets, reducing spread, and test like crazy?

We see indications many places in the US aren't doing these things which is a worry. It should worry you too.

[BBfanboy]

Oh Crap! Not another one! [:(][:(][:(]

https://globalnews.ca/news/7123249/chin ... -detected/

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Oh Crap! Not another one! [:(][:(][:(]

https://globalnews.ca/news/7123249/chin ... -detected/

That link would not open for me:

New swine flu with pandemic potential identified by China researchers
G4 strain has already infected 10% of industry’s workers in China but no evidence yet that it can be passed from human to human

Researchers in China have discovered a new type of swine flu that is capable of triggering a pandemic, according to a study in the US science journal PNAS, although experts said there is no imminent threat.

Named G4, it is genetically descended from the H1N1 strain that caused a pandemic in 2009.

It possesses “all the essential hallmarks of being highly adapted to infect humans”, said the authors, scientists at Chinese universities and China’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention, in the study published on Monday.

Between 2011 and 2018, researchers took 30,000 nasal swabs from pigs in slaughterhouses in 10 Chinese provinces and in a veterinary hospital, allowing them to isolate 179 swine flu viruses.

The majority were of a new kind that has been dominant among pigs since 2016.
.
.
.
G4 was observed to be highly infectious, replicating in human cells and causing more serious symptoms in ferrets than other viruses do.

Tests also showed that any immunity humans gain from exposure to seasonal flu does not provide protection from G4.

More than one in 10 swine workers in the new study had already been infected, according to antibody blood tests which showed exposure to the virus.

The tests also showed that as many as 4.4% of the general population also appeared to have been exposed.

The virus has therefore already passed from animals to humans but there is no evidence yet that it can be passed from human to human – the scientists’ main worry.

The World Health Organization (WHO) will read the Chinese study carefully, spokesman Christian Lindmeier told a Geneva briefing on Tuesday, saying it was important to collaborate on findings and keep tabs on animal populations.

“It also highlights we cannot let our guard down on influenza and need to be vigilant and continue surveillance even in the coronavirus pandemic,” he added.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian told a daily news conference on Tuesday that China was closely following developments. “We will take all necessary measures to prevent the spread and outbreak of any virus,” he said.

The study highlights the risks of viruses crossing the species barrier into humans, especially in densely populated regions in China, where millions live close to farms, breeding facilities, slaughterhouses and wet markets.
.
.
.
“It is of concern that human infection of G4 virus will further human adaptation and increase the risk of a human pandemic,” the researchers wrote.

The authors called for urgent measures to monitor people working with pigs.

James Wood, head of the department of veterinary medicine at Cambridge University, said: “The work comes as a salutary reminder that we are constantly at risk of new emergence of zoonotic pathogens and that farmed animals – with which humans have greater contact than with wildlife – may act as the source for important pandemic viruses.”

A zoonotic infection is caused by a pathogen that has jumped from a non-human animal into a human.

Although it is capable of infecting humans, there is no imminent risk of a new pandemic, said Carl Bergstrom, a biologist at the University of Washington.
“There’s no evidence that G4 is circulating in humans, despite five years of extensive exposure,” he said on Twitter. “That’s the key context to keep in mind.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... esearchers

[Canoerebel]

Despite the increase in cases and the media feeding frenzy, mortality continues to drop in Georgia and the US. The 7-day rolling average for the US dropped below 590 today, about 25% of its peak levels in mid- and late April.

IHME took a look at the rising case load and adjusted projections again. Downward, unbelievably. With new cases going through the roof, mortality projection decreased from 179k to 175k for the US. Georgia dropped from 6k to 5k (a 50% reduction in the past week).

[sPzAbt653]

no evidence yet that it can be passed from human to human

LOL !!

Posted this earlier, looks like it needs to be posted again:

Jan. 14 & 15 - Chinese officials received confidential instructions from President Xi, and all regions were warned to “prepare for and respond to a pandemic”.
Jan. 24 to Feb. 29 - China imported 2.5 billion pieces of epidemic safety equipment, including over two billion safety masks.
https://globalnews.ca/news/6858818/coro ... um=Twitter

Right or Wrong is up to the individual to decide, but it wasn't negligence or incompetence. China knew what it was doing as far as buying up all the PPE. As for other instances of corruption, the USA and many other countries have been giving hundreds of millions of dollars to outfits like WHO and CDC in order to investigate and prepare for coranavirus' and I think we can all admit that we haven't gotten our money's worth. On a more local level, here in the immensely corrupt state of Maryland, USA, the governor brokered a $9m deal for incomplete S. Korean testing kits that no local labs could use and to this day he can still not produce one single kit from his deal.

I give everyone the benefit of doubt at first, and I don't think there is 'evil' at work, but when I see details such as those above I don't have a problem being suspicious.

Friendly reminder [:)]

[sPzAbt653]

Today I finally heard the first talk of Air Purification and Circulation Systems for indoor businesses. The human race should be in panic mode to get this done before the onset of fall and another flu season. Mask wearing, washing hands and social distancing have very little effect, and a vaccine is not forthcoming although to sooth the minds of the masses they will announce there is one included in the regular seasonal flu vaccine. The stories I've heard of the long lasting effects are enough to keep my level of concern fairly high. And the neurological effects are scarcely spoken of even though we continue to see the senseless acts of protesting, looting and destruction all across the Earth.

My favorite burger place opened back up, but how do I know if the air is safe to breathe ? Chairs on tables, the sign of the time.

[RangerJoe]

As a reminder, please refrain from all comments that may be construed as political - especially in regards to current events. This thread should just be for the coronavirus and similar problems such as a possible new pandemic.

[RangerJoe]

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: FDA Takes Action to Help Facilitate Timely Development of Safe, Effective COVID-19 Vaccines

The FDA strongly encourages the inclusion of diverse populations in all phases of clinical development, including populations most affected by COVID-19, specifically racial and ethnic minorities, as well as adequate representation in late phase trials of elderly individuals and those with medical comorbidities. Sponsors are also encouraged to include studies in their development plans that would provide data to support use during pregnancy, as well as plan for pediatric assessments of safety and effectiveness.

The guidance also discusses the importance of ensuring that the sizes of clinical trials are large enough to demonstrate the safety and effectiveness of a vaccine. It conveys that the FDA would expect that a COVID-19 vaccine would prevent disease or decrease its severity in at least 50% of people who are vaccinated.

https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-a ... tive-covid

[RangerJoe]

What Americans Need to Know About Europe’s Travel Ban
The E.U. and other European countries will begin welcoming some nonessential travelers on July 1, but Americans will not be on the list, at least at first. Here, answers to travelers’ questions.

Who is allowed to enter Europe?
As of July 1, European nations (all members of the European Union, as well as the non-E.U. European nations of Iceland, Norway, Switzerland and Liechtenstein) are expected to begin opening their borders to residents of Algeria, Australia, Canada, Georgia, Japan, Montenegro, Morocco, New Zealand, Rwanda, Serbia, South Korea, Thailand, Tunisia and Uruguay. Residents of Andorra, San Marino, Monaco and the Vatican will also be allowed entry. China is on the list, “subject to confirmation of reciprocity” — that is, if the country will open its borders to European travelers. The official press statement noted that individual European nations may decide to take a progressive approach to lifting restrictions on travel from the listed countries. Residents of the United States, where the spread of Covid-19 has not been controlled, are not allowed to enter the European Union unless they qualify for an exception.

https://www.nytimes.com/article/eu-trav ... d-usa.html

I guess that they don't like Americans drinking coke while eating their French meals . . .