Small Test of Anti Raider Warfare in 9U17

[kennonlightfoot]

ORIGINAL: MagicMissile

Is it in every convoy attack a 10% chance to sink a escort or is it 10% per sub unit? Does anyone know? Because in my games with ComadrejaKorp there are in general 4 convoy attacks per turn and I lose like 1,5 escorts per turn way more than 10% if it is per attack.
/MM

About the worst it got in my tests was this last test on first six months of 41 where the Germans kept an average of 10 full strength U-Boat units with at least two 3 stacks plus two more stacks of 2 on the convoy route every turn. That resulted in only 8 Escort kills over the 13 turn period. The main problem the UK has with escorts is trying to not only replace losses but to bring the total number up high enough that they will be able to cover all the Convoy routes in 41. When you consider that is four routes in easy range of ports in France and Germany, that means they have to build 25 Escorts in addition to making up the loss of some 20 Escorts during that first two years of the war.

I have no idea what the odds are but both the subs and Escorts are advancing over time with the escorts always lagging by at least one tech year.

So far in the test I have seen maybe three rounds where a sub unit got a 4 level hit but so far no sub unit has been killed. Which is the only thing that will slow the German U-Boat campaign.

[ago1000]

Only Alvaro can answer what's happening with 100% accuracy. Subs attack with their attack factor and can hit MMs 50% of the time and a small chance of hitting an escort. When escorts attack, they attack with their anti-sub values and 10% of the times subs can sink them reading (my understanding of the manal). How many times the theoretical die is rolled could be based on many factors and is under the hood.

However, mathematically if you run it a billion times the limit should approach the % given, 50% MMs sunk and 10% escorts.

In MMs two games he has provided Forces and casualties screens, escort losses seem closer to 50% not 10%.

For Casualties/(Total Number) Jan 2, 1942 MMs 211/488 = 43% escorts 18/40 = 45%
In his mirror game: Jan 30,1942 301/411 =73% escorts 32/56 = 57%

My theory is the subs are inflicted damage on escorts when they attack the MMs.

(p.82)
Submarines have a 50% chance to convert a surface factor to a damage point on a merchant marine. These attacks
destroy merchant marine factors and occasionally an escort factor.

(p.83)
Convoy Escorts Attacking Submarines—A submarine has a 10% chance to hit an escort.

[kennonlightfoot]

With 9 out I will probably not continue this test. However, just to see what the new Sub Hunter Bonus does I ran it out about four months.

My Observations:
Not enough change in hits to tell how effective the bonus is. Most bonuses were around 2-6% depending on what I was testing.
DD's give a 1% bonus per. They can be stacked on individual.
CV's give a 2% bonus per.
They can support any convoy attack within their 1 AP movement which is 24 hexes.
UK has to be careful since if their supply is at 1 when they do their turn, it will be 0 for the next convoy combat round and won't give bonus.
It apparently doesn't matter what convoy lane they are in as long as they are on a convoy lane. They support all convoy attacks within their 24 hex range regardless of what route it is (DD in N. Atlantic Convoy will support S. Atlantic convoys if in range).

My biggest worry about the effectiveness of the sub hunters.
These fleets are by their nature very weak if you try to get good coverage (spread out). German surface fleets could easily wipe them out.

[ago1000]

With 9 out (3 groups of 3) to add to MMs point, the mechanics would be nice to know, considering the chances are different of at least one hit,
1 - (0.9)^3= 27% (If they attack as a group) vs 1 - (.9)^9 = 61% if they attack individually. If I were guessing, it's the latter.

[MagicMissile]

Thanks for everyones input [:)]. Still not sure if this is working as intended or if there is something strange here. Need someone elses games as well to compare.

/MM

[ago1000]

Thank you too Magic for the data. Too many unknowns and the game mechanics are not provided in the manual. These are truly shots in the dark.