Test Game AAR using Hot Seat

[kennonlightfoot]

42 Jun 21 - Japan

I will be wrapping things up with this turn since ver 3 is out. The main purpose of this hot seat was to test how far the Japanese could get if they made strong attacks into India and Australia while using aggressive island hoping. A good comparison of this versus a more historic campaign can be seen by comparing where both sides are by end of June to Remington700's AAR Page 6.

Situation at end of June:

Oil production is 65 with 48 upkeep and 165 stockpile (29%). All these recent fleet operations have cost the Japanese in oil. They will need to let their inventories build up in preparation for the coming US campaign to retake territory.
Convoy War: Only the Indian Ocean fleet still active but it takes out another 4 Merchants.
Reinforcements: 1 division. New Builds: 1 Inf. Div. and 1 AA. Reinf/Upgade: 120.

The production and upgrades are going to be a problem. When all of it was going mostly to infantry having only a 120 in upgrades was okay. But now they have two CV's that need to be repaired and I am not sure this Reinforcement/Upgrade will be sufficient. They have a current production capacity around 230.

In the build queue now are 6 Inf. Divisions, 4 Escorts, 1 AA, 1 Truck and 1 Landing Ship.
The Japanese badly needs infantry divisions for garrisoning and it looks like they can keep up their production for some time.

Carrier Situation

The Japanese aren't in bad shape although I withdrew them from the carrier battle. With only two full strength carriers I didn't feel they wanted to go another round with the US which had been reinforced by the UK. There main problem will be getting enough production points to go to repairing two of their badly hit CV's. There carrier fleet now is:

Skokaku 3/3
Kaga 3/3
Juno 3/3 (was in Indian Ocean)
Kirgu 1/3
Akagi 1/3
Plus 4 CVL's and 1 CVE

Hiyo 3/3 will arrive in 7/31

Once repaired they will be able to field a full six CV fleet again.

Australia

The Japanese have probably reached their limit in Australia unless they are willing to commit addition troops. The Allied line is now strong enough and has good positions to keep any attack to less then 2:1.

[kennonlightfoot]

42 Jun 21 - Japan Cont'd.

China

The China front is stable but few opportunities for wearing down the Chinese at decent odds. Most attacks would only be 1:1 at best unless the front is reinforced. This is the price for sending armies to India and Australia. There is a lot to be said for a China strategy since there are a lot of VP hexes behind their lines that the Allies couldn't easily retake once lost. Also, as the Chinese are beaten down the line the Japanese have to defend becomes shorter freeing up infantry for other theaters once the VP hexes are taken.

[kennonlightfoot]

42 Jun 21 - Japan Cont'd.

India

Rain again. The curse that has done more to save India than anything else. The Japanese are limited to just trying to get back in contact. But the Indian line in the north is much longer so the Japanese only really have offensive power where their three armies are located. Which, right now is on the Indian right where there are no good objectives. The VP hexes and production hexes are to the north and Delhi. But they may want to link up their southern front with the northern before going for those. Down side is this front needs more infantry to keep going.

[kennonlightfoot]

42 Jun 21 Allies

Situation

Things are improving for the Allies as they finally get UK and US troops into play.

Convoy War

Is still going badly but with the retreat of Kido Butai and the semi victory at sea against it, it should improve or at least not deteriorate as fast. They only lost 4 Merchants this round. The US has 6 Merchants under construction but they take a long time. Also, I am not sure if the US can send production directly to India as the UK loses its ability to do supply India. The UK has limited ability to keep producing infantry so at some time they will have to make some Merchants so they can send Production the India with it's almost unlimited manpower.

Fleet situation

I think the US won a tactical victory in the exchange having sunk two Japanese CV's at the price of one. But they also did a lot of damage to two more Japanese CV's. The US with its deep pockets can easily rebuild these but it will take a while for the Japanese to do this.

Enterprise 3/3 (this is their only full strength CV until Wasp arrifes)
Lexington 2/3
Yorktown 2/3
Hornet 1/3 (sent back to US to recover)
Wasp 3/3 (arrives this turn and is moving toward Australia)
UK CVL (giving them a potential six carrier fleet)

Main problem the US has is they don't get all the CV's that historically showed up unless they start building some. So they have to anticipate loses and start building replacements. Considering it take 1.5 years if they start now it will be 44 before they show up.

China

China front is stable but with a production level of only 52 (plus 13 for Communist) they aren't likely to become strong enough to go on the offensive anytime soon. Not unless the Allies can reestablish the Burma routes.

[kennonlightfoot]

42 Jun 21 - Allies Cont'd.

India

I straightened up the lines a little but weather will be the determining factor. The Allies need two more turns without losing to much ground to stabilize the lines. There is a UK division ready to leave Africa next turn with two more just arriving who will be waiting their turn to ship over. Once those three divisions plus one Indian reinforcement division scheduled for 8/6 are deployed into India the Allies should be able to prevent further incursion by the Japanese.

But that leave quite a few turns for the Japanese to try to take the only close by objectives, Hyderaba and Lucknow, both providing India with 5 PP each per turn. Taking them will be a blow to India's rebuilding their forces. I don't think the Japanese army is capable of more than this without significant reinforcements. This will still draw off significant amounts of Allied resources to get a drive back into Burma going. And, it will come with little reward since the only VP hex is Calcutta.

I will be time consuming to rebuild the Indian army since the UK only has a production of 60, some of which will have to go into replacing Merchants. India has 43 but if they lose the two cities mentioned that will drop to 33. Canada can indirectly contribute 8 production building supports like Trucks. The US currently is only sending 15 production. This could be increased but is the return worth it?

Allies pray for rain.

[kennonlightfoot]

42 Jun 21 - Allies Cont'd.

Australia and S. Pacific

The Allies have from a good solid line blocking the continued advance by the Japanese from the north (Brisbane). However, they are still short on garrisons in their rear and the Japanese could make an almost unopposed landing in the Allies rear by taking Melbourne. However, they will have to do it soon with questionable naval support since two divisions are on transports just east of New Zealand and another division is just leaving the US West Coast along with the Wasp CV. The opportunity will probably disappear next turn.

But Australia has been turned into a production sink hole for the Allies. They will have to keep sending more forces there so they can retake the ports to use against the Japanese. Australia with a production of only 65 and limited logistics isn't going to be a big contributor to the Allied cause.

The US on the other hand is becoming a power house. It now has in the reinforcement builds: 2 Marines, 5 Inf. Divisions, 4 Subs, 2 Transports, 6 Merchants, 5 Landing Ship, 1 Oiler, 3 Supply Trucks and 2 AA.

This will eventually give them 100 Merchant Marine, 100 Landing Ships, and 100 Supply Trucks.

[kennonlightfoot]

End of June 1942

I thought I would wrap this up with some observations. Time to move on to update 3.

The thing not to lose sight of is you win by taking VP hexes. The only effect of taking territory is reduction of the enemy's ability to build new units. Worthwhile but not critical except for the Japanese and Chinese. The US and UK production are safe from assault.

In this test game the objective was to see what would happen with strong assaults into India and Australia. In India any damage you do pushes their time table for mounting a massive army counter assault into Burma and eventually Indonesia and Malay. In Australia there isn't as much to achieve but it does throw off the US's return into the South Pacific. It may also trigger a naval carrier battle in a position favorable to the Japanese.

Victory wise the situation at the end of June is Japanese have 307 VP to the Allies 225.
More importantly the Japanese have 26 VP hexes compared to the Allied 12.
This means the Japanese will be gaining at the rate of 14 per turn.

If they can hold on to this advantage through 42, they will have increased their margin from 82 to 250.
In 43 the Allies will probably take back VP hexes, especially the Pacific ones very quickly but the Japanese should be able to hold enough that things will probably be an even split by end of year. They should also increase their margin during 43 because it will be a while before the Allies take back enough to start reducing that margin. Considering the Japanese have some very difficult to retake VP hexes in the Home Islands and China, a US victory isn't that sure a thing.

Now to see what update 3 does to this equation.