SCARZ (Axis) vs. AURELIAN (Soviet)

[Scarz]

Air War - The Rumanians flew air superiority missions over Odessa and 4 Luft flew naval interdiction missions with mixed results. The Russians flew several recon missions in each army group’s area, presumably looking for the panzers.

[Q-Ball]

What are your ground losses right now? That screen more interesting. And what turn is it?

[Scarz]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

What are your ground losses right now? That screen more interesting. And what turn is it?

I just posted turn 7 of the AAR, but we are on turn 11 in the game.

I posted two different losses reports after turn 6, are they not the best charts for showing losses? If not, which chart is best for conveying than info?

Looks like total German losses at T6 are 74,586 men, 789 guns and 234 AFVs.

Russians total losses as of T6 are 1,291,321 men, 22,233 guns and 7,008 AFVs.

[Q-Ball]

See that now.....T6 POWs of 920K. That's pretty good, though I expected more with all the units I saw that you were pocketing. If you are at T11, you are certainly well over 1 mil POWs now.

For me, the Soviet POW count is an important marker

[Scarz]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

See that now.....T6 POWs of 920K. That's pretty good, though I expected more with all the units I saw that you were pocketing. If you are at T11, you are certainly well over 1 mil POWs now.

For me, the Soviet POW count is an important marker

Is there a magic number of Russian losses that the Germans need to reach before the blizzard turns? At what loss point do the Russians struggle in the blizzard offensive turns?

I felt like I had some really good pockets early, but the later pockets have been netting smaller numbers of Russian divisions. They may also be reduced divisions....

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: Scarz

Is there a magic number of Russian losses that the Germans need to reach before the blizzard turns? At what loss point do the Russians struggle in the blizzard offensive turns?

That's a really good question, and I don't think there is a set answer. It certainly "depends" on a number of factors.

Generally, here is what I found, but others please chime in:

--3 mil overall Soviet losses by T-17, with 2 mil POWs, is doing fairly well as Axis. POWs are good not only because they are perm losses, but 8% of them eventually are going to flip to your side as Hiwis
--Another goal is to keep the Red Army under 3 mil. Below 3 mil it gets difficult for Reds to have any kind of defense in-depth. Once you get to T-17 it will be impossible to keep the Red Army at this level, especially after Dec. the Red Army is going to grow, period. But this is a benchmark
--The most important captured equipment is trucks, because long-run the Axis is really going to need those trucks. I don't have a good guess yet on benchmark, but thinking 20,000 by winter? That seems like a minimum you need.

[Scarz]

Sounds like I have a ways to go. On T9 I have captured only 1.1 with Russian total losses at 1.6. Although I will be getting a big haul on T11.

Where do you find the captured truck info?

[jubjub]

Where do you find the captured truck info?

Bottom of the 'freight' section in the logistics report.

[Scarz]

ORIGINAL: jubjub

Where do you find the captured truck info?

Bottom of the 'freight' section in the logistics report.

Thanks, I will check that next time I get a turn back!

[Scarz]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

ORIGINAL: Scarz

Is there a magic number of Russian losses that the Germans need to reach before the blizzard turns? At what loss point do the Russians struggle in the blizzard offensive turns?

That's a really good question, and I don't think there is a set answer. It certainly "depends" on a number of factors.

Generally, here is what I found, but others please chime in:

--3 mil overall Soviet losses by T-17, with 2 mil POWs, is doing fairly well as Axis. POWs are good not only because they are perm losses, but 8% of them eventually are going to flip to your side as Hiwis
--Another goal is to keep the Red Army under 3 mil. Below 3 mil it gets difficult for Reds to have any kind of defense in-depth. Once you get to T-17 it will be impossible to keep the Red Army at this level, especially after Dec. the Red Army is going to grow, period. But this is a benchmark
--The most important captured equipment is trucks, because long-run the Axis is really going to need those trucks. I don't have a good guess yet on benchmark, but thinking 20,000 by winter? That seems like a minimum you need.

So looks like I have hit the 20k benchmark (on T12).

[Scarz]

TURN 8

AGN – As expected, the Russians pulled back their line and are now along the river west from Novgorod. 4 Pz Grp is resting this turn, as they had fairly high fatigue and no prep points. This pause has allowed the infantry to move up into contact with the Russian line. However, the infantry is also fatigued and low on prep points. I have also attached a construction unit and a heavy flak battalion in Pskov and set it to priority repair. All in all, a very quiet turn in the north.

Two side notes, XXXVIII Corps (18 A) captured an undefended Tallinn and continues to clear Estonia. II Corps (16 A) has taken over the defense of Velikie Luki and will try to cover AGN’s right, along with XXVIII Corps (16 A) which is currently at the outskirts of Staraya Russa.

[Scarz]

AGC – 9 Army attacked on either side of Smolensk and isolated the city. The 18 Motorized Division from LVII was required to seal the pocket, so the panzers relocated to the south of the city in preparation for a possible advance on Vyazma with 9 Army once Smolensk falls.

[Scarz]

4 Army moved up into the gap between 3 Pz Grp south of Smolensk and 2 Pz Grp just southwest of Bryansk, while 2 Army finally reached 2 Pz Grp’s position around Unecha. I have a real decision to make, with 2 Pz Grp and elements of 1 Pz Grp in the south. It seems the Russians have started running west with the units from Kiev so I am not sure the big pocket solution is still available. But I am tempted, as there are Russian formations that could still be trapped. The alternative is to head for Kursk and northeast toward Orel.

The lack of supply is still a problem, so I have to consider the range, and I am not sure 2 Pz Grp can even reach any of the proposed objectives.

Based on the success of 1 Pz Grp in the south, I felt obligated to try and cut off the retreating Russians from Kiev. However, fuel shortages prevented 2 Pz Grp from reaching Sumy. XII Corps (2 PG) was able to dislodge the Bryansk defenders, but didn’t have the movement to move into the city, so 10 Motorized Division was sent to occupy the city.

Unfortunately, the retreating Russians have a nice gap through Sumy toward Kursk, and I just wasn’t able to cut them off. G.D. Rgt was able to cut the rail line east of Sumy, so I hope this will greatly reduce the supplies flowing into the almost trapped Russians.

[Scarz]

AGS – The Russians are running pell-mell east and 6 Army was able to capture Kiev virtually unopposed. The Russian units I thought I had trapped around Pyatikhatki were able to slip out and actually briefly cut communications with the panzers advancing on Dnepropetrovsk. The situation was rectified, but it caused an unnecessary was of time and was a mistake not insuring the pocket was tighter.

III Mot Corps was able to take Kharkov without a fight, displacing several HQs. 14 Pz Division tried to reach Belgorod, but the city was defended and the division stopped on the southwest side of the city. XXXXVIII Mot Corps moved north, but was low on supply and didn’t make it very far. Finally, XIV Mot Corps stayed opposite Dnepropetrovsk to make sure the retreating Russian divisions stay isolated this turn.

[Scarz]

AG Anton - 4 Rum Army continues its pursuit of the Russians as they head east taking both and Nikolaev and Kherson this turn, while the 3 Rum Army shifts to the north and helps isolate the four Russian divisions that cut off the panzers. Additionally, XXXXIX Mtn Corps (17 A) also shifted northward to protect 1 Pz Grps right on the move toward Kharkov. The remainder of 17 Army is following. I plan to direct 17 Army toward Stalino as the majority of 1 Pz Grp heads for Kharkov.

[Scarz]

Air War – I flew 4 recon missions, and only lost 28 planes, so the Russian fighters and air defense must be taking the week off. I also transferred Flieger Fuehrer Ostee back to Luft 1 and rebased them to Riga. I realized once they had been rebased that they will probably be needed in the south long before they can do anything around Leningrad, and luckily most of the naval air assets had previously been placed into the reserve to refit.

[Scarz]

My opponent and I agreed to end the game at Turn 12, so I will post of remainder of turns all at once. At the end I will post my thoughts and a few questions, especially regarding German supply issues...

[Scarz]

TURN 9

AGN – The air recon revealed a fairly robust Russian defense line, with some depth, especially behind Novgorod. I am not left with much choice due to the constriction of the front and the terrain but to grind forward. I Corps (18 A) begins the attack clearing two divisions along the main rail line. X Corps (16 A) and L Corps (4 PG) make deliberate assaults and capture Novgorod and clear out another infantry division.

4 Pz Grp advanced up the main rail line and advanced elements captured Siversky. Finally, XXVIII Corps (16 A) captured Staraya Russa and displaced several bomber units based at the airfield.

[Scarz]

AGC – I had planned on assaulting Smolensk this turn, but the odds seemed terrible, so I will wait another turn and allow the defenders to go without supplies another turn to see if that softens them up a bit. In the interim, V Corps (9 A) made clearing attacks to the east with the idea of opening the way for 3 Pz Grp to make a small pocket of the units just northeast of Smolensk.

The attack on the left side of the Smolensk line goes well, but I had thought 9 Army could knock a hole in the right side to link with 3 Pz Grp panzers. However, the Russians had a much thicker line, and backed up by tank and mech units in reserve, which prevented 9 Army for punching a hole. I am left with trying to redirect LVII’s panzer divisions back around Smolensk and try to punch a hole. At a minimum, I want to isolate these defending units this turn, and then look to tighten the pocket next turn. Unfortunately, I was not able to isolate the Russians this turn, but it was close.

[Scarz]

2 Pz Grp just doesn’t have the fuel to try another pocket, but I will push a small wedge towards Kursk and see if 1 Pz Grp can cut off a few divisions from the herd. Elements of 29 Motorized Division met up with 13 Panzer at Sumy, cutting off the 4-5 Russians divisions northeast of Konotop.