Nach Moskau und zurück - Gunnulf (A) AtAtack (S) GC-No early end

[loki100]

he's still got to match the HWM in december 1944 - that test remains.

So giving up too much in 1942 creates the dual problems of a too high a target (remember the base line numbers are asymetric) and needing to take a lot of ground to achieve it?

think this is a fascinating game, well reported with lots of neat ideas

[Gunnulf]

T40 Krasnodar Sector

Yes on both counts I think. I guess he is playing the long game and preserving his forces to fight on grounds of his own chosing, but if in the meantime I have amassed so many bonus points he will have trouble matching these with the future juggernaut. Losing Leningrad was definitely an upset to his plans, and very lucky break for me I think that could have gone the other way if I hadn't also added an extra corps, but he didn't necessarily do anything wrong except perhaps pulling an intact force back to level 4 city hexes while he had a chance. However I think his first big mistake might have been to give the Axis an easy ride in blizzard allowing this early offensive before the mud kicks in. I will be 100-200miles deeper when the summer kicks in, and in fact have options solid interesting options to go deep into the Caucasus or to go for hard for Moscow...

[Beethoven1]

What are the MP and fuel of your tanks like in the south? Are you facing any real logistical constraint that you notice? Also are you concerned about spring mud at all, with you advancing now during winter? Does it feel like you can basically just drive to Baku and Stalingrad unopposed, and do you think there is anything AtAtack could do to stop you, if they wanted to?

[Gunnulf]

Out of the gates when the weather changed the Panzerkorps attached to 11 Armee was full CPP and full tanks and was ready to roll, with only a few Rifle brigades to sweep aside it wasn't a problem to reach Krasnodar even having to trace supply back to Rostov as the rail teams were in the interior creating alternate parallel routes to the front. I was only expecting at first to get 30-40 miles before hitting serious resistance. As it is we've [spoiler] taken Krasnodar on turn 42. Supplies were starting to get lower at this point and we know there are troops nearby so will wait out the mud here and let the rail catch up. We are already way ahead of historical, where we'd be starting with the railhead at Stalino so not going to push our luck getting caught out. Its as far from Rostov to Baku as it is from Kiev, we wouldn't be able to push all the way there without supplies close by. However we already covered 1/3rd of the distance already and will take that as a solid bonus.

In the direction of Stalingrad 1 Panzerarmee got more like 70 miles from our winter startline before we hit more resistance and likewise we will wait here for better weather and supplies to push fresh after the mud clears rather than ruining the panzers. If the infantry see's opportunities to advance they will take them though. The Red's were a bit more protective of the goal here.

T41 AGC

Army Group Centre meanwhile has stayed pretty solid in front of Moscow, although we pressed forward in a few key hexes we wanted to take and have a bridgehead across the river. But on the eastern flank, same as AGS seeing a lose screen of rifle brigades we reached close to Voronezh and stand aa good chance of enveloping the city if the weather hold off from mud for bit longer. Either way like in the south once the rail catches up and the mud clears we should be in a good position to weigh up the options for further east, south or Moscow...

[Gunnulf]

T43 Voronezh

While 11 Armee captures and consolidates Krasnodar, a combined effort from 2 Armee's breakthrough north of Voronezh and 2 Panzers exploitation sees Voronezh all but surrounded. Mud will hit soon but its pretty doomed to fall which puts us in a good pivot point to begin the summer campaign properly when it kicks off. Lots of decisions to be made, and honestly I've not made them yet as this little offensive went a little better than planned...!

[Gunnulf]

T43 OKH Overview

Here is the overview of the entire front as it stands. 11 Armee won't go much further until the rails catch up and the muds dry. 4 Pz in strategic reserve while we decide what to do with it.
The rail network is in much better shape than start of winter with a parallel line in the south of the main axis which takes in many new railyards, but ideally when the 5th FBD arrives another parallel line to the north of the main supply line will be added too. Otherwise to the north also some work to be done to repair the double-track now cleared behind the front to allow supplies and reserves to traverse. Otherwise the focus is on the new territory in the centre and south.
Otherwise logistically we lost 105k trucks, which is about 2.4k per turn. Sounds pretty horrific is scale but fits with the target Jubjub suggested earlier so I will bow to his wisdom on that!

Soviets numbers look reasonably healthy. 4.5m casualties but 6.4 under arms with a growing tank corps and a large air force training in reserve.

VPs sitting at 724. If this was sudden death things would be in reach but as it stands I hope to be able to continue to add a solid HWM target to beat. We'll see... Voronezh we can tentatively chalk up. As to the rest TBC...

[Hardradi]

Very nice overview picture Gunnulf. Appreciate the work you have done there.

There are some really long truck supply lines. These look like they are beyond the maximum 30 hexes so I guess they must be related to units that moved during the turn.
There is another truck statistic in the Logistics report, something like "trucks lost due to movement" are you able to show that figure?

How are you Panzer Divisions looking, have you been able to replace AFV losses?

[Gunnulf]

Glad you find it interesting, its a nice record for me too. I enjoyed doing a WITW AAR against QBall a few years ago but haven't had time since with work and family etc but been enjoying putting this together. Be nice to hear Atatacks thoughts afterwards too, but all in good time we will find out what he has been scheming I'm sure...

Yes I think those long trails in the centre are from 4 Panzergruppe units railed to the Minsk area to regroup, I'd be surprised if they weren't in reality getting supplies from local depots. Otherwise the 11 Armee is a way off Rostov but we flew in supplies to Krasnodar and next turn they were circa 75% for fuel and supplies. Not that they are going far now for a few weeks I think, but the railhead is now halfway to them in T44.

A couple of panzer divisions in 4 Panzergruppe were working hard right through winter, one in particular looking a bit sad at at 20 Afvs, but all the rest are pretty near to full complement having had a fairly quiet winter in depots and cities in immediate reserve behind the line. None went home on leave. Also none of the panzer replacement battalions utilised yet and there are still PzIIIs in the pool too, but perhaps only about 150ish from memory. I'll try to have a proper look next turn I get. I expect them all to be close to full strength in time for the next action.

As an aside I didn't get a screenshot but couple turns ago the German corps of 3 divisions that's been sitting idle in Crimea guarding against possible amphibious trickery tried to cross at Kerch but rebounded, not with many losses but that backdoor to link up to 11 Armee is still closed. I was reading about the Soviet Kerch landings in winter 41 Battle_of_the_Kerch_Peninsula. Didn't realise what a drama it was and a long bloody campaign that saw 350k Soviet losses apparently. That didn't happen this game but I didn't want to take all of 11 Armee out after Sevastapol fell just to have the Romanians lose it!

[Gunnulf]

T45 Panzerwaffe

So, maybe my memory of the state of the Panzer divisions was a little rose-tinted in places, but this is the current state of the Panzerwaffe across all theatres. As mentioned 3rd and 8th were working hard in the north and are on the roster to ship back to France for a well earned break on the beach. 24th & 25th will rotate in to replace them. Otherwise the rest should be fine to refit for a few weeks. As mentioned all the panzer replacement battalions are unused so far and there are about 750 panzers in the pool to fit out the current divisions. I think we will be in reasonable state when summer comes ready to roll over the start line.

[Gunnulf]

T48 Voronezh

Looks like the forecast was wrong and the mud starts to clear up in patches, at least in the centre and a window opens to end the siege of Voronezh. We can consolidate the rail next week and then the tough decisions need to be made about the grand scheme for a second summer of battles. If we can find where the enemy is of course. Like our allies in War in the Pacific, around about this very time actually, we can 'probably' capture anything we set our ambitions on, but not everything...

[HardLuckYetAgain]

Gunnulf what is your thought process with this? That is a great many PZ Divisions on refit at the same time O.O. (Specifically related to refitting)

[Gunnulf]

That particular turn was the first turn of refit and was very unscientifically 'first come, first served' anything that could refit something would. Then next turn I looked at each one and refined who still needed to stay on refit at the same time as further transiting units around. None of the motorised or infantry were on refit so it was a push for panzers drive. By the end of 3 turns I think numbers of AFVs in panzer divisions were about 350 higher, with a few in 1 & 2 Panzergruppe that were part of the winter push and thus in advanced positions a bit slower to rebuild, but not to the point of hampering operational planning.

[Gunnulf]

T50 Krasnodar Sector

Krasnodar and Maikop are both secure but the foothills and mountains to the south are going to be tough to evict the Soviets without significant re-inforcements and may prove to be a thorn in the side of any serious push further into the Caucasus proper, although half of 11 Armee with elements of 4 Panzer Armee tentatively push east. The rail is pretty loaded from a couple of extra panzer divisions riding in to save fuel and tracks but should be back to shipping much needed bratwurst soon.

[Gunnulf]

T50 Stalingrad Sector

Well, still 110 miles to go and resistance relatively stiff but we will optimistically call it the Stalingrad sector already. What can go worong?
What is noticeable from both these pictures, and in fact anywhere along the front is a complete lack of any Guards units. Nobody has been winning anywhere close to enough battles to gain these honours due to a quiet winter. I'm sure they will start to appear before the end of the year but its certainly a downside to preserving the Red Army perhaps.

[HardLuckYetAgain]

ORIGINAL: Gunnulf

T50 Krasnodar Sector

Krasnodar and Maikop are both secure but the foothills and mountains to the south are going to be tough to evict the Soviets without significant re-inforcements and may prove to be a thorn in the side of any serious push further into the Caucasus proper, although half of 11 Armee with elements of 4 Panzer Armee tentatively push east. The rail is pretty loaded from a couple of extra panzer divisions riding in to save fuel and tracks but should be back to shipping much needed bratwurst soon.

You will be wasting your time to get the foothills and mountains that I put in the black box. But that is just my 2 cents & I personally would not bog myself down in that direction. Your opponent is guarding this area hard with some good Soviet units. But the way east is not guarded as well that I drew a black arrow on. You have an opportunity in your hands which I saw in Tyrone's game in WITE1 against BrianG. I mentioned it in post 165 where I started saying a drive this way was possible here https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.a ... age=6&key= Some of the same key elements apply here in your game but you have to make sure of certain things which I believe you already know. I would look at that link at a minimum for some old history that may apply here but in my opinion you are looking pretty good so far . Good luck on whatever you end up doing.

[Gunnulf]

T50 Ostfront

Well, apart from the Crimea and Leningrad bits, didn't have time to stitch them together but here is an overview after 50 weeks of fighting. We've hit 758 VPs to set a decent HWM for year one I think, anything from here on is gravy. 116vp's as bonus's for early capture, although we lost the 6vp bonus for Ryazan getting taken back (working as intended or should the Soviets get essentially free bonus Vps back with no time target for cities never taken historically?).

As seen from the last 2 posts the enemy from here on in is starting to fight harder and its going to be a delicate balance to push further without wrecking our army. The rational thing might be to dig in and try to make it a difficult HWM to match, but where is the fun and glory in that? There is still a reasonable chance to take Stalingrad but I won't be surprised if its a hornets nest of forts all around by now. Maybe Grozny/Makhachkala is possible but further risks overexposure unless I commit at least another army to the south to clear south of Krasnodar. Tambov is probably doable as is Ryazan again, and in fact we could do a rope-a-dope in the south and focus some serious pressure on Moscow if he has committed hard to the south... But we can't do everything at once for sure, but nor can he. Probably...

The whole Red army is 7m strong, despite 4.8m casualties in the first year of the war versus axis 0.8m, so approximately 6-1 losses overall. AFVs closer to 7-1 and our on map troops and vehicles seem relatively healthy for now... Most of the VVS is still training in the Urals but is a force to be feared in the near future I'm sure.

[Gunnulf]

ORIGINAL: HardLuckYetAgain

ORIGINAL: Gunnulf

T50 Krasnodar Sector

Krasnodar and Maikop are both secure but the foothills and mountains to the south are going to be tough to evict the Soviets without significant re-inforcements and may prove to be a thorn in the side of any serious push further into the Caucasus proper, although half of 11 Armee with elements of 4 Panzer Armee tentatively push east. The rail is pretty loaded from a couple of extra panzer divisions riding in to save fuel and tracks but should be back to shipping much needed bratwurst soon.

You will be wasting your time to get the foothills and mountains that I put in the black box. But that is just my 2 cents & I personally would not bog myself down in that direction. Your opponent is guarding this area hard with some good Soviet units. But the way east is not guarded as well that I drew a black arrow on. You have an opportunity in your hands which I saw in Tyrone's game in WITE1 against BrianG. I mentioned it in post 165 where I started saying a drive this way was possible here https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.a ... age=6&key= Some of the same key elements apply here in your game but you have to make sure of certain things which I believe you already know. I would look at that link at a minimum for some old history that may apply here but in my opinion you are looking pretty good so far . Good luck on whatever you end up doing.

Clicked the list and took me a moment thinking 'ooh thats an interesting retro map-mod'. Of course you already mentioned it was WITE1 but it still was a couple of posts before the penny dropped In my defence its late and its been a long day. But there is certainly some wisdom there as I weigh up the options...!

[HardLuckYetAgain]

ORIGINAL: Gunnulf

ORIGINAL: HardLuckYetAgain

ORIGINAL: Gunnulf

T50 Krasnodar Sector

Krasnodar and Maikop are both secure but the foothills and mountains to the south are going to be tough to evict the Soviets without significant re-inforcements and may prove to be a thorn in the side of any serious push further into the Caucasus proper, although half of 11 Armee with elements of 4 Panzer Armee tentatively push east. The rail is pretty loaded from a couple of extra panzer divisions riding in to save fuel and tracks but should be back to shipping much needed bratwurst soon.

You will be wasting your time to get the foothills and mountains that I put in the black box. But that is just my 2 cents & I personally would not bog myself down in that direction. Your opponent is guarding this area hard with some good Soviet units. But the way east is not guarded as well that I drew a black arrow on. You have an opportunity in your hands which I saw in Tyrone's game in WITE1 against BrianG. I mentioned it in post 165 where I started saying a drive this way was possible here https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.a ... age=6&key= Some of the same key elements apply here in your game but you have to make sure of certain things which I believe you already know. I would look at that link at a minimum for some old history that may apply here but in my opinion you are looking pretty good so far . Good luck on whatever you end up doing.

Clicked the list and took me a moment thinking 'ooh thats an interesting retro map-mod'. Of course you already mentioned it was WITE1 but it still was a couple of posts before the penny dropped In my defence its late and its been a long day. But there is certainly some wisdom there as I weigh up the options...!

Yes, definatly a good read on that whole post with good insight. Everyones game is different but I do believe you have a good opportunity here with your game too I will be watching for sure as you go forward. The Germans can take it but will be a tough nut to crack. Can't wait for the follow ups here. [&o][&o][&o]

[Elessar2]

I recall an AAR from maybe midsummer where several SS units spearheaded an epic campaign in the area between the two seas. IIRC he drove S then E then N, encircling a massive number of Russian troops in the process.

[Gunnulf]

T51 AGS

Mud returns to northern and central Russia, and AGS goes slow for a turn to let logistics catch up and rebuild CPP. Meanwhile the Italians continue to skirmish in the wastelands while the combined 11 Armee/4 Panzer schwerpunkt pushes on in a rather tenuous overextended way. We definately need to commit more troops down here, or accept that this is the boundary. I'd prefer the former but have half an eye on the latter as a realistic option. Overall the pressure is being applied along the front where possible and an extra 100k casualties inflicted. At that rate we can finish off the Red Army completely in about 18 months...except they keep adding new recruits!