Feeding the March East - carlkay58 vs Soviet AI

[Stamb]

If division is set to 100% TOE and get to battle which leaves it at 80% non damaged TOE. Then in the next logistic phase it will try and grab replacements to match 100% which means less supplies/ammo, right?

[carlkay58]

GFelz:

I will try to highlight this in my next turn (which would be turn 4) and show how it operates in detail there.

Stamb:

Yes, but as far as I know replacements are requested after supplies so not really. It does put more stress and strain on the supply net but it is after the important supply gets through. There is a cap on how much rail capacity will be grabbed during the logistics phase which would include both supplies and replacements. I THINK this cap is in the 60 to 75% range but I am not sure.

[M60A3TTS]

ORIGINAL: carlkay58

homer82:

One of the problems with playing around with MAX TOE is that the unit will actively degrade to that point by sending elements back to the replacement pools. I really don't know if this consumes rail capacity or not. But a unit at 50% is more likely to rout, shatter, etc. if placed under stress by enemy attacks. I personally rarely modify MAX TOE (I do not tend to micromanage) but under some situations I would - a quiet sector (such as AGN) perhaps lower MAX TOE to 80% to free up replacements for more active sectors. Any reduction beyond 80% would have to be done in the late war for me. It's a personal decision and I really don't know how much that would really help overall.

Supply priority for units can vary also depending on whether this is an active sector or not. I typically keep infantry armies at 2 -> if the units do not need the supply they will not request it so no real problems there. I typically keep motorized units at supply priority of 4 during 41. I will reduce that to 3 when the weather starts to be bad but motorized MPs are very dependent on supply levels and that is too important to play with. Again this is my personal opinion. If you do lower supply priorities then you are also reducing the demand for supplies from the NSS and possibly reducing the flow of supplies to the front. My system has been to maximize (within reason) demand for supplies in the front line to try and maximize the flow to the east. These things are something that can be played with once the weather turns bad.

I agree with you, When the heavy mud hits and your trucks start to feel the strain of distance from depots, and you know winter is around the corner, is this the army with 50% TOE that you want to go into a blizzard with? Sure, you can start to raise the TO&E then, but time is short and you need supplies to dig into your level 2 forts. Manpower reductions just makes that all the more difficult. I tried using some unit supply priority 1 in a game as some suggested and found it totally unworkable for me anyways. When blizzard hits, you want full strength divisions dug in at level 2 so fatigue is generally less, and so are your attritional manpower losses. Lower manpower losses mean lower replacement freight required that leaves more winter supplies for other purposes.

[carlkay58]

T03 OOB:

Soviet forces are dipping below 3M men and only 75K in Reserve so things are looking about right for Turn 3.

[carlkay58]

T03 Production:

Everything is looking pretty good here. Up to 14.1K trucks in repair - an increase of 5.3K. This will increase as distances get longer and weather gets worse.

[carlkay58]

T03 Freight:

Everybody is getting good supplies as there is a +9K between Need and Received. The distances are not that long yet and the weather is still good so things should be good.

[carlkay58]

T03 Trucks:

Things here are also looking good. Captured Soviet trucks are now up to 6.8K. Everything helps in the truck pool.

[carlkay58]

T03 Air Phase:

I change all of the Air Groups to Auto Upgrade in the Commander's Report. I then change the locations of the Recon Directives to cover what I need to know. 45 aircraft are lost during the Recon directives.

[carlkay58]

T03 Supply Net North:

AGN is almost completely being supplied from depots created after the start of the war. AGC is not as well supplied by that but it is also the deepest penetration into the Soviet defenses and still has a lot of units in the rear taking care of pockets.

[carlkay58]

T03 Supply Net South:

The only true advancement of the Axis supply net is L'vov. You can see just how many units are being supplied by that depot.

[carlkay58]

T03 Some Supply Details:

The Berlin NSS states that a total of 88K freight was shipped out from it. Prague NSS shipped out 59K. Vienna NSS shipped out 33K. This is a total of 180K freight drawn out of the NSS.

L'Vov received 9.5K freight. The leading depot for AGC 2nd PG FBD (Pruzhany) received 4.4K. 2rd PG FBD leading depot (Shumskas) received 1.1K. Vilnius (split this between AGN and AGC) received 7.5K. Kaunas received 7.1K. Riga received 5.9K - all of it by sea.

By monitoring how much freight moved out of the NSS and what is arriving at major and leading depots we can see how the movement of the freight will change as we progress in the war.

[carlkay58]

T03 AGN:

4th PG starts to move on Pskov while also trying to seize as much rail as possible while captured rail may be automatically converted without needing repair. Between the 4th PG FBD, the 18th Army's RAD units, and the captured rails Riga is now connected to Daugavpils and north towards Pskov.

[carlkay58]

T03 AGC:

3rd PG is at the outskirts of Smolensk, isolating Vitebsk and a few small pockets on its way there. 2nd PG does not quite make Smolensk so there is still a gap in that pocket but has isolated Mogilev and continued to the east of the Dnepr River (sound historical?). 9th Army is rushing to the north to take over the line linking AGC and AGN beyond Polotsk. 4th Army is rushing east to form a line containing the Pripyet Marshes. 2nd Army is now active and is reducing the last of the Bialystok Pocket.

[carlkay58]

T03 AGS:

1st PG forms a large pocket to the east which can easily be broken and reformed next turn. The 6th and 17th Armies work on sealing the large pocket in the center. 11th Army and the Rumanians move eastward trying to catch up to the retreating Soviets. I have transferred all of the Hungarian units and SUs to the Hungarian Mobile Corps. This frees up the VIII Hungarian Corps to take control of some RAD units. I transfer two RAD units from 18th Army to AGS.

[carlkay58]

T03 Cleanup:

The usual cleanup with checking the Reserves Theater Box, moving up some AOGs, I create the Koluft 2 AOG this turn, and some other clean ups.

T03 Ground Losses:

218K losses to the Soviets this turn. My AFV losses are at 138 which is worrisome but I have to use the panzers actively until the infantry can catch up.

[carlkay58]

T03 Air Losses:

Not the best exchange for the LW as it losses 105 aircraft to 342 Soviet. Some heavy Air to Air combats this turn.

[carlkay58]

T03 Files:

[homer82]

ORIGINAL: M60A3TTS

ORIGINAL: carlkay58

homer82:

One of the problems with playing around with MAX TOE is that the unit will actively degrade to that point by sending elements back to the replacement pools. I really don't know if this consumes rail capacity or not. But a unit at 50% is more likely to rout, shatter, etc. if placed under stress by enemy attacks. I personally rarely modify MAX TOE (I do not tend to micromanage) but under some situations I would - a quiet sector (such as AGN) perhaps lower MAX TOE to 80% to free up replacements for more active sectors. Any reduction beyond 80% would have to be done in the late war for me. It's a personal decision and I really don't know how much that would really help overall.

Supply priority for units can vary also depending on whether this is an active sector or not. I typically keep infantry armies at 2 -> if the units do not need the supply they will not request it so no real problems there. I typically keep motorized units at supply priority of 4 during 41. I will reduce that to 3 when the weather starts to be bad but motorized MPs are very dependent on supply levels and that is too important to play with. Again this is my personal opinion. If you do lower supply priorities then you are also reducing the demand for supplies from the NSS and possibly reducing the flow of supplies to the front. My system has been to maximize (within reason) demand for supplies in the front line to try and maximize the flow to the east. These things are something that can be played with once the weather turns bad.

I agree with you, When the heavy mud hits and your trucks start to feel the strain of distance from depots, and you know winter is around the corner, is this the army with 50% TOE that you want to go into a blizzard with? Sure, you can start to raise the TO&E then, but time is short and you need supplies to dig into your level 2 forts. Manpower reductions just makes that all the more difficult. I tried using some unit supply priority 1 in a game as some suggested and found it totally unworkable for me anyways. When blizzard hits, you want full strength divisions dug in at level 2 so fatigue is generally less, and so are your attritional manpower losses. Lower manpower losses mean lower replacement freight required that leaves more winter supplies for other purposes.

Great points gents. What I take from your comments 1) any potential supply/reduced rail usage benefit gained by Max 50% TOE is likely offset by excess TOE going back west to the pool over the very same rail and 2) the strength reduction to forces come winter makes this a non-starter from the beginning. That said, this leaves adjusting supply levels as the tool of choice. So much to consider. Thanks for your insights!

[carlkay58]

T04 OOB:

The Soviet manpower has shot up to 3.4M. This reflects the reserves being called up by the Soviet army but they are there and I need to reduce their number as quickly as possible.

[carlkay58]

T04 Production:

My supply situation with supplies in units is doing very well. There are also 12K vehicles in the pool so there is a good buffer here.