Scenario: The Destruction of Southwestern Front vs Sov AI (Completed)

[carlkay58]

In a campaign scenario the AI will ALWAYS build up to 200 divisions if it drops below that number so it always can build a line. I do not know if something like this is triggered in a scenario or not.

[jlbhung]

ORIGINAL: loki100

guess you could regard those tank losses as a bit of extra attrition in addition to the normal wear and tear of movement?

Yes, my overall tank losses were light [Edited]. In fact, wear and tear from panzers roaming around is quietly taking the toll in the form of increasing number of damaged AFVs, which is much more than direct losses. I will show the statistics in the next update of AAR.

re the AI, if it runs out of enough units to fill the line I think it reverts to a combination of strategies.

It does seem to like a balanced front line (so will deploy with just ZoC coverage) but if it feels badly over-matched it will try to set its line well back (say 3-4 hexes0 as opposed to in contact. This is not a bad combination but sometimes it seems to decide to set up fairly close (so its estimate of relative front line strength is under-estimating what you have to hand), which gives you a decent chance at clean breakthroughs?

I think the AI in this scenario is taking a general strategy of retreating in both the North and South while blocking advance along the dual track rail. This IMHO is the right strategy. I would use the same strategy if I play the Soviet side for this scenario.

On the issue of avoiding gaps in the defence line, I would prefer the AI to give more weighting to forming unbroken line around VP cities. Moreover, it maybe desirable to leave at least a division in a VP city if it is within 8-10 hexes of detected enemy panzers/motorized divisions, even if the city is well behind the frontline.

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: jlbhung

...
On the issue of avoiding gaps in the defence line, I would prefer the AI to give more weighting to forming unbroken line around VP cities. Moreover, it maybe desirable to leave at least a division in a VP city if it is within 8-10 hexes of detected enemy panzers/motorized divisions, even if the city is well behind the frontline.

Gary is currently trying to train the AI to cope with disconnected fronts in some of the new scenarios under development, the good thing is this is then brought back into the main campaign

If I recall, it should be garrison VP locations well in advance. Maybe this routine isn't invoked in the scenario or that it is really short of assets. As carlkay notes, it has some systems in the campaign that may not be in the scenarios.

You could make a bug post of that and Joel could pass it on?

[jlbhung]

Turn 7 – Action Phase

For this turn, I will go directly to the screenshot taken at end of Action Phase.

There were only three, though important, battles. Kiev, E.Kiev and Odessa were occupied (red circles). They will be elaborated later. Apart from these -

(a) in the North, there were only very little changes in the frontline. I mainly used the turn to move infantry units to the front and let 1PzG take a rest. There were no attack, breakthrough or long-range movement for panzer/armored and motorized units this turn;

(b) in the South, it was another turn of matching into undefended territories – no combats, no contacts with enemies;

(c) infantry units with lower %Toe were grouped together around depots to refit (blue circles).

[jlbhung]

Turn 7 – Assault on Odessa

Nearly 160k Axis troops attacked Odessa, which was defended by 76k Soviet troops. Odessa’s port continued to be blocked by Axis Naval Patrol this turn (as suggested by the map info shown on the water hexes, in the black circle of the screenshot).

Soviet defenders’ CV dropped by nearly 90% in combat (white box). This was partly contributed by the total elimination in fortification levels (red box with white arrow), resulting in reduction of terrain defensive bonus from +5 to +2 (city hex) only. Another cause was the more than 60% drop in combat ready elements after fierce close-quarter combat (6768 ready elements at start minus some 4300 destroyed/damaged/disrupted) (see other red boxes). Poor leadership roll may also contribute.
[Note: one point I am not too sure is whether the isolation effect (which divides CV by 2 or 3 as per Manual 23.14.4) applies to the initial or the final CV.]

As a result of the battle, the Soviet lost 7 Rifle Divisions and the Odessa Coastal Artillery Division, with over 74k men captured/killed.

[jlbhung]

Turn 7 – Battles of Kiev and E.Kiev

Different from the large scale battle of Odessa, the battles of Kiev and E.Kiev were fought only between 2 German and 2 Soviet divisions (those enclosed in the black box).

At first, German 79th Infantry Division attacked Soviet 14th Cavalry Division defending E.Kiev from the east (battle (a) in screenshot). After defeated, 14th Cavalry Division retreated to Kiev to join the Soviet 169th Rifle Division. The German 79th and 113th Infantry Divisions then moved westwards across the Dnepr River to take Kiev (battle (b)).

Both attacks had unfavorable initial CV ratio to the Axis (Axis 120 vs Soviet 310 in the first and Axis 222 vs Soviet 1152 in the second). I decided to take the risk because -

(a) before the battles, the unmodified CV of the German divisions was three times that of the Soviet’s unmodified CV (two CV12 units vs two CV4 units). In my view, the unmodified CV is a better indication of a unit’s ability to deal damages and hold ground;

(b) combat in cities is more intensive. More elements will be destroyed/damaged/disrupted, and hence the side with more elements enjoys advantage. Compare to German infantry divisions, Soviet rifle and in particular cavalry divisions have fewer elements; and

(c) the Soviets were isolated; and

(d) there were other units nearby for a second wave attack if the first attempt fails.

Axis losses from the combat report appear to be small: 95+2116 men for two battles. However, if we look at the %TOE figure, we will find that both German infantry divisions had a lot of damaged elements. The %TOE dropped sharply to 50 and 34 for the two units (see blue boxes with white arrow).

[jlbhung]

Turn 7 – VP Position

After the fall of Kiev and Odessa this turn, the Axis now has half of all VP cities in this scenario (5 out of 10, those in red box in screenshot). The VP to be gained by Axis in each player turn will now be 75, higher than 45 of the Soviet side.

[jlbhung]

Turn 7 – OOB and Losses

This game just passed 40% length of the scenario. Let us have a look at the various figures/statistics and the supply situation.

Starting with OOB, at end of Turn 7 Axis Action Phase Axis has nearly 2 million troops on map while the Soviet has only 810k.

So far, Soviet lost 84 divisions (smaller units not counted), 935k men, 15k guns, 5671 AFVs and 3275 aircrafts.

Axis losses are comparatively light, just 61k men, 703 guns, 71 AFVs and 207 aircrafts. But if we look closer, only about three-quarters of German AFVs are in good shape (941 out of 1237 on map, see red box). Damaged AFVs are quietly building up as panzers ran around nearly non-stop for so many turns.

[jlbhung]

Turn 7 – Replacement Pool

Screenshot shows the Production Screen. Supplies, ammo, fuel and vehicles in units are all in healthy level (see red box).

I would like to highlight the replacement pool of German aircrafts. Through changing aircrafts and disbandment of air groups, I manage to have sufficient aircrafts in replacement pool to fill up air groups to max for most models, with the exception of long range recon Bf110E-3 and Ju88D-2 only (compare the number in green and white boxes).

[jlbhung]

Turn 7 - Freight

Abundant freights are being delivered to ground units (15k supplies rec’d compares to about 5k needed, according to Turn 7’s Logistics Phase Report). Freights delivery to air bases appears to be unsatisfactory. However, the Manual suggests that air bases can receive fuel and ammunition during the air execution phase. May be I don’t need to worry.

[jlbhung]

Turn 7 – Supply Network

Finally, the rail and depots network that supplies the nearly 2 million Axis forces.

[Edit - actually the depot at Fastov will only come into operation next turn]

[Stamb]

This is really nice AAR and presentation [&o]

Did you use any pioneers for the battle of Odessa?

[jlbhung]

Thank you Stamb. I am glad that you like this AAR. This is my second AAR. You may also read my first one on Road to Leningrad http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=5006630.

The 3 corps HQs involved in the Odessa battle each has one pioneer SU. However, they decided to commit artillery instead of pioneer. I forgot to assign the pioneers directly to the infantry divisions. Nevertheless, there are many pioneers already in the infantry divisions joining the battle - see the screenshot.

[FriedrichII]

Very interesting AAR and good visualization. Also interesting for me the talk about the AI strategy. Does the AI has fog of war , or can the AI see everything? I mean if fog of war is for both sides on the AI has to deal with it, or not?

[FriedrichII]

(Sorry, posted this in wrong AAR)

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: FriedrichII

Very interesting AAR and good visualization. Also interesting for me the talk about the AI strategy. Does the AI has fog of war , or can the AI see everything? I mean if fog of war is for both sides on the AI has to deal with it, or not?

it plays by the rules in that regard - which is one reason to not put everything on the front line and generally give it at least 2 threats to worry over, so it sets its front line according to what it can see within the FoW constraints - its also why the AI does a fair bit of recon

[jlbhung]

FriedrichII, thank you. It is nice to know that people found my AAR interesting.

I observe the strategy and tactics used by the AI as I play. Because I sometimes play both sides of a scenario, I am interested in learning something that I can deploy myself when I play the opposite side.

[jlbhung]

Turn 8 - Air Recon Results and Action Planning

At the start of the turn I was a bit lost on what to do. So I do a general scout of the frontline from North to South, losing 5 recon aircrafts for 9 Recon Air Directives.

Based on the situation after recon (see screenshot), it appears that the Soviets are avoiding contacts from Axis troops in both the North and South, while blocking the Centre.

Axis mobile troops are in two clusters, one to the east of Kiev while another around Kirovograd (see red circles). I think they could form a pocket following the red arrows. I also want to occupy the dual track rail leading to Dnepropetrovsk (along black arrow).

[jlbhung]

Turn 8 – Action Phase

Screenshot shows the position at end of Action Phase.

In the North and South, Axis troops simply advanced into undefended territories.

In the Centre, at least 15 Soviet units were isolated around the Axis controlled city Cherkassy (the “Cherkassy Pocket”). Axis troops also occupied the dual track rail connecting Kirovograd to Dnepropetrovsk, and reached the doorstep of latter. I did not have luck this time – Dnepropetrovsk was not undefended.

Axis troops made only 5 attacks this turn (all within the red box), all conducted by infantry units.

[originalperson0]

Thanks for writing this AAR, this is helping me improve as a beginner.