Ukraine 22 - Air war analysis

[Gunner98]

Some speculative and preliminary analysis in a RUSI paper over why the Russian AF has not achieved air dominance over Ukraine by now. Although speculative, the author postulates that it is threefold: 1) Lack of sufficient stocks of PGMs, 2) Inability to properly coordinate and deconflict battlespace with GBAD, and 3) Poor overall training and capability with not enough flight hours per pilot nor enough simulators.

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/p ... -air-force

None of these reasons are strong enough on their own, perhaps in combination. I do find it curious why/how the Ukrainian AF has survived this long. Certainly when I built Don of a New Era so many years ago now, my assumption was a massive OCA campaign to rid the skis of opponents as quickly as possible.

[HaughtKarl]

Watching Ukraine's drones operate with near impunity had me scratching my head. Why aren't Russia's highly vaunted SAMs swatting them out of the sky?

I'd love to hear SeaQueen's thoughts on this topic.

[BeirutDude]

Certainly when I built Don of a New Era so many years ago now, my assumption was a massive OCA campaign to rid the skis of opponents as quickly as possible.

Bart, I assumed the same when I built Kyiv, Ukraine, 2022 just a few days ago!!!!!

[HalfLifeExpert]

Great resource, Thanks!

While this war was assured to be a field day for analysis, this is crazy how off the mark pre-war projections were. No doubt all the western analysts are going nuts right now

[Twistedpretzel]

Watching Ukraine's drones operate with near impunity had me scratching my head. Why aren't Russia's highly vaunted SAMs swatting them out of the sky?

I'd love to hear SeaQueen's thoughts on this topic.

I am looking forward to the analysis in the coming weeks. The alleged OTR-21 Tochka attacks are incredibly interesting.

Maybe they don't work as well as alleged. Maybe the problem is with operators, maintenance, equipment failures. Maybe there is an outside influence causing our surprise at apparent mediocre employment.

[TempestII]

It's certainly an interesting article.
I do also wonder if there's enough dissenters in the VVS, and the Russian armed forces as a whole, who don't believe in this war. If so, it could certainly add to the ineffectiveness of the RF air power.

[thewood1]

Something I've seen no one mention or talk about in the news is Ukraine's legacy in missile technology. Most of the seeker heads and other SAM and A2A missile for for Ukraine and Russia were/are built in around the Kiev area. Russia start moving their development and production in the 2000s, but it significantly slowed development and deployment for years for Russia. But the bigger issue in this war is Ukraine has continually developed its technology and has a very deep understanding of all Russian airfare weapons except the most recent developments. I would bet this plays some role in current SAM and AAW engagements.

Ukraine is not Afghanistan or Georgia. It has a defense industry just as capable as, if not more capable than, Russia. Its biggest issue is funding and manufacturing capacity. It can actually be more capable because the import restrictions aren't as stringent.