Fair statement? Russia's database needs a complete update

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Ataraxzy
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Re: Fair statement? Russia's database needs a complete update

Post by Ataraxzy »

Gizzmoe wrote: Mon Aug 01, 2022 11:44 pm Yes, and we know that the lack of smart weapons is a major problem for them.
They don't view it as a problem. It's simply a doctrine choice. Means they can pump out LOTS more munitions than NATO and more cheaply to boot. Remember, Russia plays to its strengths, just like the US does. One of Russia's strengths is vast, vast amounts of manpower. Cheap, replaceable equipment, in large numbers, supplemented by world-class materiel at key points is Russia's doctrine. Always has been. Russia has the best SAMs in the world, and consequently, the best radars. They also explicitly harden their equipment against an atomic environment, which comes across as 'backwards simplicity' to those who don't recognize what's actually at play ("Look at those 1970s avionics!" syndrome). China has the same general doctrine, with different specialties. China's specialties are submarines and electronics.

Calling it a problem is propaganda, and prevents one from considering the situation rationally. It's "Bad", with all the mental baggage that comes along with that term, including dismissal, under-valuing, inappropriate attribution, faulty interpretation and many, many more.
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Sharana
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Re: Fair statement? Russia's database needs a complete update

Post by Sharana »

Ataraxzy wrote: Tue Aug 02, 2022 2:45 am They don't view it as a problem.
Who are "they"? The soviet old school generals who planned the Russian operation, that was supposed to be done in few weeks and with no real plan B? Well we saw their level.
The guys from the "patriotic propaganda" you are retranslating (after all you did register here only to retranslate it in this topic) - I would hardly call those as "they" (= Russia). After all the head of the Russian Military–industrial complex (Yuri Borisov) said that the era of smart weapons really came (like 30 years later for them compared to the West) and they weren't fully prepared for it, but are expanding production as much as possible atm. Same on UAVs etc. So I call it BS that it's not seem as a problem.

The rest of the BS with the "best SAMs", "best radars" etc I will simply ignore. As for the "vast amounts of manpower" - ehm when was the last time you checked the year on the calendar if I might ask? The USSR is long gone and present day Russia doesn't have "vast amounts of manpower". In fact all pro-russian telegrams are constantly screaming about lack of manpower.

And this is exactly why even the most dense old school generals over there can see that this old USSR doctrine can't be applied in the present day. The more "dumb" munition approach is only making your logistic a lot larger and more exposed. Couple that with limited amount of manpower and you have the current situation where "the world's 2nd army" can only advance on a single, geographically tiny area at once by focusing it's resources there. And even then the speed of such advance is one of a turtle.

What does this "doctrine choice" look like? There is a reason why both sides say that each taken position there looks like Verdun.
Image

But what does that actually mean?
It means that in order to destroy some tactical position that was blocking their advance, they had to concentrate a lot of artillery pieces and expend several railway cars worth of artillery shells using quite a chunk of those barrels capacity's (there is limited amount of ammo each barrel can fire before needing replacing). This huge amount of munitions had to came via railways where it, in form of individual wooden boxes, had to be unloaded by (a lot of) hands into a temporal big dump. Then a long line of waiting Kamaz trucks will be loaded for hours as it's all manual works and carrying individual wooden boxes. Then those Kamaz trucks will be unloading for hours all of this ammo in big warehouses close to the frontline as there simply isn't enough manpower to spread them into smaller stockpiles and further away from the frontline if they are to keep up with the ammo consumption of this "doctrine". The next day part of those boxes will be again manually loaded into another Kamaz trucks that will this time bring them to the artillery units for those shells to be fired.

When you consider the amount of resources spent and manpower involved it would have been faster, cheaper and just way more efficient to destroy the said blocking tactical position using way fewer, but individually more expensive smart munitions. And your logistical footprint wouldn't have been that huge and exposed to a point where literally a handful of modern rocket artillery (HIMARS) pieces can become a headache.

But even when not counting smart munitions - the whole "doctrine" of a lot of individually cheap things is extremely reliant on a massive amount of manpower and that's a problem for all modern day militaries. Russia didn't invest at all in their logistics and that's why they still look like basically WW2 with soldiers tossing around individual boxes and loading/unloading them for hours. And that’s the reason they simply can't sustain a larger or faster advance. Pallets, cranes, rapid unloading - all of this is a very foreign concept over there that even the most pro-russian telegram channels point out and compare to how it's done "in the west".
Image
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Compared to:

https://youtu.be/sBXU6E74pXI
Which is basically the same as both those photos taken in ... 1944! First is USSR, 2nd is US.
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Image

Then if you project the concept of cheap dumb munitions on the air force it gets even more ridiculous. Their helicopters that toss unguided rockets in the sky in order to increase range and stay outside the MANPADs range are at best not more effective then rocket artillery like Grad. Yet the helicopter is surely more expensive then the Grad truck and the operators are A LOT more expensive to train, yet you risk them for the same efficiency instead of employing smarter munitions - if you are risking this expensive helicopter with expensive pilots you might as well do more damage to the enemy by using more advanced munitions. Fighter bombers like Su-34 flying with only 2 or 4 unguided bombs is whole other level even compared to that...

But noo, it's all great in the Motherland, there is no lack of modern days logistics and weapons, it's all great comrades - don't listen to capitalist propaganda :mrgreen:
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Gizzmoe
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Re: Fair statement? Russia's database needs a complete update

Post by Gizzmoe »

^ This. Thanks for your elaborate response, I couldn't be bothered to reply to him after he wrote "Calling it [the lack of smart weapons] a problem is propaganda", and my reponse wouldn't have been nearly as detailed as yours. The logistics situations alone that the Russians face, as you mentioned, is a real nightmare that cripples everything. All the other additional bad things make everything even more worse for them.
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Gizzmoe
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Re: Fair statement? Russia's database needs a complete update

Post by Gizzmoe »

Sharana wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 5:34 pm What does this "doctrine choice" look like? There is a reason why both sides say that each taken position there looks like Verdun.
Image
Some craters have a "white ring" around them and some don't, the crater sizes of both seems nearly identical though, clearly some different type of ammo has been used or a different weapon type, who can explain?
BDukes
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Re: Fair statement? Russia's database needs a complete update

Post by BDukes »

Consistent with pattern MRL hits (Grad, Smerch, etc). It also looks like one of the better roads in Rhode Island.

I'd wait to see what the experts have to say about it. Could be some time before they move from data collection into analysis and then conclusions. Don't eat until it is done!

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Ataraxzy
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Re: Fair statement? Russia's database needs a complete update

Post by Ataraxzy »

Sharana wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 5:34 pm
Ataraxzy wrote: Tue Aug 02, 2022 2:45 am They don't view it as a problem.
The rest of the BS with the "best SAMs", "best radars" etc I will simply ignore.
A verbose, but completely unserious analysis, not worthy of response more lengthy than fifteen words.
gennyo
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Re: Fair statement? Russia's database needs a complete update

Post by gennyo »

Some intesting review of russian cruise missile capability.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_F7mt4rNVY0
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Gunner98
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Re: Fair statement? Russia's database needs a complete update

Post by Gunner98 »

Gizzmoe wrote: Sun Aug 07, 2022 12:54 pm
Sharana wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 5:34 pm What does this "doctrine choice" look like? There is a reason why both sides say that each taken position there looks like Verdun.
Image
Some craters have a "white ring" around them and some don't, the crater sizes of both seems nearly identical though, clearly some different type of ammo has been used or a different weapon type, who can explain?
There are a couple possible explanations but you really need to take a much closer look:
1: Age, the craters with the white ring could be old with the exposed soil being bleached by the sun or other WX
2: Soil layers. If white chalk or something like that is covered by a topsoil, heavier caliber shells/rockets leaving a deeper crater could expose it, leaving a white ring. Or conversely, if there is a thin upper layer of whitish sand or something it could be the darker craters are the deeper ones.
3: It may be that the explosive compound of a certain type of ammo leaves a different colour ring but that would have to be lab tested

There is very little splash on many of these craters that I can see, so probably high angle impact like mortars. It could be artillery or rockets impacting at a high angle of attack, but probably a mix with a lot of mortars.

Crater analysis is a fairly involved process but the key thing is either you need to physically touch and test the evidence or the photos need to be processed with some fairly specific software. (or like the WW2 guys - lots of experience)
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edsw
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Re: Fair statement? Russia's database needs a complete update

Post by edsw »

Rondor11 wrote: Sun Jun 05, 2022 12:56 am Sorry, I am late to the party.

I am just so giddy over just how terrible a conventional fighting force Russia has that I giggle to myself sometimes. As a conventional army, they are 3rd tier.

Being a baby boomer American, what can I say?

Dimitris wrote: Sat Jun 04, 2022 7:23 pm I've commented on this dead horse again and again and AGAIN. Frankly, by now you're late to the party.

Here's a taste: https://www.reddit.com/r/CMANO/comments ... he_moskva/

As for OODA values.... stick around.
What a bold statement, weak army, level 3... Do you know how the war goes? Do you have exclusive data on its course, besides a beautiful picture, what does the media draw for you? so you think looking at the map "how small such a country can resist such a big one" but you don't think that -30-40 million people live in this "small country" and mobilization has been announced, half the world is helping us, and it's completely incomprehensible how your "great "the us army would show itself in such conditions ..... Russian equipment, well, apart from some failures, it shows itself well, this equipment was used for war, but at the beginning there were mistakes due to which there were heavy losses, but the Russians learn quickly and now the situation another.
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