Axis TB requirements GC41

[K62_]

Since it appears the manual is not completely accurate about these I've lifted them from the editor and tried to organize them chronologically. Let me know if you see any errors and I'll update accordingly.

1941-06-22:
Western Europe Ground: 410 Air Day 53 Air Night 33;
Norway Ground: 64 Air Day 5 Naval 14;
Finland Ground: 200 Air Day 11;
Soviet Garrison Ground: 0;
North Africa Ground: 68 Air Day 12 Naval 7;
Italy Ground: 52 Air Day 17 Naval 12;
Balkans Ground: 110 Air Day 4;
1941-08-10 Consolidating control: Soviet Garrison Ground: 60
1941-12-11 US Enters the War:
Italy Ground: 68 Air Day 35;
North Africa Ground: 70 Air Day 28 Naval 7;
Norway Ground: 82 Air Day 8 Naval 24;
Finland Ground: 225; Western Europe Air Day 73 Air Night 39
1941-12-15 Winter is Here: Western Europe Ground: 345; Soviet Garrison Ground: 90

1942?-?-?? Axis capture Leningrad: Finland Ground: 210
1942-06-01 It's not Over: Finland Ground: 245 Air Day 14
1942-07-01 Allied Bombing Increases: Western Europe Air Day 85 Air Night 59
1942-08-01 The Soft Underbelly: Balkans Ground: 135 Air Day 6
1942-08-02 All in for Cairo: North Africa Ground: 85
1942-08-19 Dieppe Raid: Western Europe Ground: 475
1942-10-20 Security Forces Reorganize: Soviet Garrison Ground: 140
1942-11-?? Tunisia Must Be Held: North Africa Ground: 125; Italy Naval 19

1943-02-27 Allies Raid Norway: Norway Ground: 95 Naval 17
1943-05-?? What's Next?: Western Europe Ground: 530; Italy Ground: 230 Air Day 70; Balkans Ground: 160 Air Day 11
1943-07-01 Escorts Arrive Over Germany: Western Europe Air Day 150 Air Night 80
1943-09-?? The Shrinking Axis: Italy Air Day 20 Naval 7
1943-12-01 Battle of Berlin: Western Europe Air Day 200 Air Night 95

1944-01-01 The Atlantic Wall: Western Europe Ground: 570
1944-01-27 It's Only a Matter of Time: Finland Ground: 260
1944-06-01 P-51s in Action: Western Europe Air Day 270 Air Night 75
1944-06-06 D-Day: Italy Ground: 195 Air Day 7
1944-08-?? Rumania Surrenders: Balkans Air Day 0
1944-08-25 Disaster in the West: Western Europe Ground: 550; Norway Ground: 75; Balkans Ground: 130
1944-10-?? Norway on the Frontline: Norway Air Day 15
1944-12-01 Final Effort: Western Europe Air Day 300

1945-04-18 Rheinland falls: Western Europe Ground: 345; Norway Ground: 68; Balkans Ground: 100
1945-05-?? Austria on the Frontline: Western Europe Ground: 425

[M60A3TTS]

Is it listed anywhere in the manual how +/-1 VP/AP events are generated due to either a shortage or surplus within the theater boxes?

[Veterin]

This is an awesome list. thanks for collating!

[Veterin]

Is it listed anywhere in the manual how +/-1 VP/AP events are generated due to either a shortage or surplus within the theater boxes?

It's in the Events section of the editor. I don't know how to interpret the formulas though on probably %

[K62_]

I've found a few dates that were wrong and updated them. Obviously some of these can shift a bit with the checks (or never happen, like Axis taking Leningrad) but the list should give a good general idea of what's happening when.

Regarding how VP checks work, it's not super clear from the editor but I can make a guess. The setback/shortage events seem relatively straightforward as the force percentage get compared to Die(100). So basically your force deficit is also the probability that you'll get a shortage event. E.g. if you have 90% ground in Norway there's a 10% chance you'll lose a VP that turn because of this shortage. (Norway has ground, air day and naval, so if you're particularly unlucky you might lose 3 VPs in a single turn just here.)

The success/excess events seem a bit more complicated. First, 100 gets compared with Die(force percentage). So if you have 125% force percentage your chance of passing this check is 25/125 = 20%. But each of the positive events also has a probability associated with it, varying between 10% in Italy and 50% in Western Europe. I think this is probably a second check that you need to pass. So, for example, if you have 125% ground in Italy your chance of actually gaining 1 VP + 1 AP here would be 20% * 10% = 2% each turn. If so, it's a lot harder to gain from excess than to lose from shortage - you need 125% excess in Italy to balance a 98% shortage elsewhere.

It does seem pretty important to prevent these shortages in the first place. If you look at an event like "US enters the war" that increases 11 different requirements you could lose a very decent chunk of VPs by the time your reinforcements make the long trip to North Africa and such.

[M60A3TTS]

It does seem pretty important to prevent these shortages in the first place. If you look at an event like "US enters the war" that increases 11 different requirements you could lose a very decent chunk of VPs by the time your reinforcements make the long trip to North Africa and such.

Well maybe not in every instance, at least with TBs open.

Specifically. the Axis WE ground requirement at the start of First Winter on turn 25 is 410. On turn 27, the Winter is Here event reduces the requirement to 345. Knowing this, an Axis player may want to risk a couple VPs for the ability of releasing something in the neighborhood of 8 infantry divisions early. This might actually help in preventing the loss of a city with a +6VP early capture bonus, so in theory you could come out ahead of the game.

[Denniss]

AFAIR probability is the check for an event to activate on that turn or not, if it activates it makes the associated checks and either stops or continues from there with the effects.
AFAIR you may only have one negative VP/AP per turn and theater but you may also get a mix of negative and positive events per theater

[K62_]

Thanks Denniss! In that case here are the required force percentages for a 5% chance of a positive event in each theater:

VP and AP gain:
Western Europe (50% probability): 111% (50% * 11% / 111% = 5%)
Norway (15% probability): 150% (15% * 50% / 150% = 5%)
Finland (25% probability): 125% (25% * 25% / 125% = 5% etc.)
Italy (10% probability): 200%
Balkans (15% probability): 150%

Campaign delays:
North Africa (25% probability): 125%
Italy (25% probability): 125%
Western Europe (85% probability): 106%
Finland (25% probability): 125%

Here are a few examples:

• If you have 111% in Western Europe in the early years you can expect to gain about 52 * 5% = 2.6 VP and 2.6 AP per year.

• If you have 106% in Western Europe after D-Day you can expect to delay Western Allies events about half a week per positive event, which amounts to about 52 * 5% * 0.5 = 1.3 weeks per year. This would push the Western Allies take Berlin event from 6/1/1945 to 6/10/1945.

• If you have 90% in Western Europe in the early years you can expect to lose about 52 * 10% = 5.2 VP and 5.2 AP per year.

• If you have 90% in Western Europe after D-Day you can expect about 30 * 10 % = 3 negative events by the end of 1944. Each negative event advances the timeline by 5.5 days, which would push the Failure in the Ardennes event from 12/30/1944 to around 12/13/1944.

[K62_]

Here's how this affects the "no early end" victory conditions (if neither side meets any of the requirements for sudden victory/ sudden loss).

Soviet Decisive Victory
- Soviets take Berlin by the end of 1944.
- Or the Western Allies take Berlin by the end of 1944. This requires the event Western Allies take Berlin to move forward by ~152 days. At 5.5 days per negative event this requires about 29 negative events across the North Africa, Italy and Western Europe campaigns over 184 turns. This requires a negative event chance of 29/184 = 16%. So if you consistently keep Africa, Italy and Western Europe understrength at 84% or lower then you'll probably cause the Western Allies to take Berlin in time for a Decisive Soviet Victory.

Soviet Major Victory
- Soviets take Berlin between January 1, 1945 and April 1, 1945.
- Or the Western Allies take Berlin by February 28, 1945. This requires Western Allies take Berlin to move forward by 94 days, which is roughly 94/5.5 = 17 negative events over 193 weeks; negative event chance 17/193 = 9%. This requires keeping the TBs consistently understrength at 91% or less.

Soviet Marginal Victory
- Soviets take Berlin between April 1 and May 31, 1945.
- Or Western Allies take Berlin by 5/31. This requires a single negative event.

Draw
-Soviets take Berlin between May 31, 1945 and August 1, 1945.
-Or Western Allies take Berlin between June 1st, 1945 and August 1st, 1945. This requires consistent TB force percentages of at least 100%.

German Marginal Victory
- Prevent Soviets from taking Berlin by August 1, 1945.
- And move back Western Allies take Berlin past August 1st, 1945. This is a delay of 62 days. At 3.5 days per positive event this requires 62/3.5 = 18 positive events over 214 weeks. This requires a chance of 18/214 = 8.5% for positive events. This requires a force percentage of: 134% in North Africa and Italy; and 110% in Western Europe after D-Day.

German Major Victory
- Prevent Soviets from matching your High Water Mark by 12/31/1944.

German Decisive Victory
-Only possible through Sudden Victory events.

[Veterin]

Can we pin this post on the forum? It's super useful

[HardLuckYetAgain]

Another +1 for this to be pinned. Thank you K62 for the deep dive!

[Denniss]

Be warned that StoB or possible future campaigns may use some other values for certain Events or TB actions.

[HardLuckYetAgain]

Be warned that StoB or possible future campaigns may use some other values for certain Events or TB actions.

Interesting. Is this soon in coming?

[Denniss]

Might want to look at StoB events, later campaigns may be based on/evolved from StoB rather than GC41

[Veterin]

Bump

[Beethoven1]

Yes, should be pinned. Great stuff K62!

[Veterin]

Bumping this beauty of a post.

[Beethoven1]

bumping again so it is easier to find for reference, until a mod eventually gets around to pinning this.

[Veterin]

Can we pleasssseee get this thread pinned?

[DekeFentle]

+1