A Japanese invasion of Hawaii

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Aurelian
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Re: A Japanese invasion of Hawaii

Post by Aurelian »

warspite1 wrote: Mon Dec 05, 2022 7:44 pm
Buckrock wrote: Mon Dec 05, 2022 12:36 pm
warspite1 wrote: Mon Dec 05, 2022 4:03 am warspite1

So yet another example of the Japanese being disadvantaged thanks to the ‘plan’......
Please don't try to build a list of disadvantages one example at a time. The thread is already over 30 pages long as is. :P
warspite1

My mistake, there appears to be no disadvantages Buckrock. I must confess I didn’t realise the Japanese fleet train had the ability to keep the 1st Air Fleet (and accompanying fleet of warships and troop carrying destroyer conversions) at sea on sustained combat operations for as long as they wanted. Very, very impressive. Remember, when the KB depart Japan, they have no idea how long they will be at sea for, or whether they will encounter opposition off the HI. They don’t know how strongly Midway is defended and how long it will take to conquer. But quite simply none of it matters - the Japanese fleet train carries an inexhaustible supply of everything needed to win the war by Christmas. Cool.
And the army was quite willing to postpone securing the seizure of the SRA by diverting units from the PI to invade a tiny island or two that not only wouldn't do diddly for that, but that they couldn't possibly hold.

Pearl Harbor generated an all consuming rage at the Japanese. Now, in this "plan", Japanese troops land on Hawaii. Quite possibly FDR might of had to go with Japan first rather than Germany
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Re: A Japanese invasion of Hawaii

Post by RangerJoe »

warspite1 wrote: Mon Dec 05, 2022 7:44 pm
Buckrock wrote: Mon Dec 05, 2022 12:36 pm
warspite1 wrote: Mon Dec 05, 2022 4:03 am warspite1

So yet another example of the Japanese being disadvantaged thanks to the ‘plan’......
Please don't try to build a list of disadvantages one example at a time. The thread is already over 30 pages long as is. :P
warspite1

My mistake, there appears to be no disadvantages Buckrock. I must confess I didn’t realise the Japanese fleet train had the ability to keep the 1st Air Fleet (and accompanying fleet of warships and troop carrying destroyer conversions) at sea on sustained combat operations for as long as they wanted. Very, very impressive. Remember, when the KB depart Japan, they have no idea how long they will be at sea for, or whether they will encounter opposition off the HI. They don’t know how strongly Midway is defended and how long it will take to conquer. But quite simply none of it matters - the Japanese fleet train carries an inexhaustible supply of everything needed to win the war by Christmas. Cool.
Not only that, because the Japanese fleet train carries so much supplies, fuel, and equipment there is actually no need to go to war! All Japanese problems are solved because of this fleet train!
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Re: A Japanese invasion of Hawaii

Post by Aurelian »

I don't remember if this was covered, and I don't want to search through 30+ pages, so here we go.

The attack was to take place at least 30 minutes after Japan declared war. Thanks to screw ups at the Japanese Embassy, it didn't get delivered until after 0830 Hawaii time.

So. you have the 1st Air Fleet stoogine around waiting to see if any carriers show up in Pearl. You have these DDs stooging around waiting for whatever. Oh, and US air patrols were concentrated to the SW.

All the while, by 0830 at the latest, the declaration of war is delivered.

Now what?
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Re: A Japanese invasion of Hawaii

Post by RangerJoe »

Aurelian wrote: Tue Dec 06, 2022 1:48 pm I don't remember if this was covered, and I don't want to search through 30+ pages, so here we go.

The attack was to take place at least 30 minutes after Japan declared war. Thanks to screw ups at the Japanese Embassy, it didn't get delivered until after 0830 Hawaii time.

So. you have the 1st Air Fleet stoogine around waiting to see if any carriers show up in Pearl. You have these DDs stooging around waiting for whatever. Oh, and US air patrols were concentrated to the SW.

All the while, by 0830 at the latest, the declaration of war is delivered.

Now what?
Actually, when I read it although my English comprehension may not be the best, it does not declare war.

"
Japanese "Fourteen Part" Message
of
December 7, 1941
Memorandum

1. The government of Japan, prompted by a genuine desire to come to an amicable understanding with the Government of the United States in order that the two countries by their joint efforts may secure the peace of the Pacific Area and thereby contribute toward the realization of world peace, has continued negotiations with the utmost sincerity since April last with the Government of the United States regarding the adjustment and advancement of Japanese-American relations and the stabilization of the Pacific Area.

The Japanese Government has the honor to state frankly its views concerning the claims the American Government has persistently maintained as well as the measures the United States and Great Britain have taken toward Japan during these eight months.

2. It is the immutable policy of the Japanese Government to insure the stability of East Asia and to promote world peace and thereby to enable all nations to find each its proper place in the world.

Ever since the China Affair broke out owing to the failure on the part of China to comprehend Japan's true intentions, the Japanese Government has striven for the restoration of peace and it has consistently exerted its best efforts to prevent the extension of war-like disturbances., It was also to that end that in September last year Japan concluded the Tripartite Pact with Germany and Italy.

However, both the United States and Great Britain have resorted to every possible measure to assist the Chungking regime so as to obstruct the establishment of a general peace between Japan and China, interfering with Japan's constructive endeavours toward the stabilization of East Asia. Exerting pressure on the Netherlands East Indies, or menacing French Indo-China, they have attempted to frustrate Japan's aspiration to the ideal of common prosperity in cooperation with these regimes. Furthermore, when Japan in accordance with its protocol with France took measures of joint defense of French Indo-China, both American and British Governments, willfully misinterpreting it as a threat to their own possessions, and inducing the Netherlands Government to follow suit, they enforced the assets freezing order, thus severing economic relations with Japan. While manifesting thus an obviously hostile attitude, these countries have strengthened their military preparations perfecting an encirclement of Japan, and have brought about a situation which endangers the very existence of the Empire.

Nevertheless, to facilitate a speedy settlement, the Premier of Japan proposed, in August last, to meet the President of the United States for a discussion of important problems between the two countries covering the entire Pacific area. However, the American Government, while accepting in principle the Japanese proposal, insisted that the meeting should take place after an agreement of view had been reached on fundamental and essential questions.

3. Subsequently, on September 25th the Japanese Government submitted a proposal based on the formula proposed by the American Government, taking fully into consideration past American claims and also incorporating Japanese views. Repeated discussions proved of no avail in producing readily an agreement of view. The present cabinet, therefore, submitted a revised proposal, moderating still further the Japanese claims regarding the principal points of difficulty in the negotiation and endeavoured strenuously to reach a settlement. But the American Government, adhering steadfastly to its original assertions, failed to display in the slightest degree a spirit of conciliation. The negotiation made no progress.

Therefore, the Japanese Government, with a view to doing its utmost for averting a crisis in Japanese-American relations, submitted on November 20th still another proposal in order to arrive at an equitable solution of the more essential and urgent questions which, simplifying its previous proposal, stipulated the following points:

The Government of Japan and the United States undertake not to dispatch armed forces into any of the regions, excepting French Indo-China, in the Southeastern Asia and the Southern Pacific area.

Both Governments shall cooperate with the view to securing the acquisition in the Netherlands East Indies of those goods and commodities of which the two countries are in need.

Both Governments mutually undertake to restore commercial relations to those prevailing prior to the freezing of assets.

The Government of the United States shall supply Japan the required quantity of oil.

The Government of the United States undertakes not to resort to measures and actions prejudicial to the endeavours for the restoration of general peace between Japan and China.

The Japanese Government undertakes to withdraw troops now stationed in French Indo-China upon either the restoration of peace between japan and China or establishment of an equitable peace in the Pacific Area; and it is prepared to remove the Japanese troops in the southern part of French Indo-China to the northern part upon the conclusion of the present agreement.

As regards China, the Japanese Government, while expressing its readiness to accept the offer of the President of the United States to act as 'introducer' of peace between Japan and China as was previously suggested, asked for an undertaking on the part of the United States to do nothing prejudicial to the restoration of Sino-Japanese peace when the two parties have commenced direct negotiations.

The American Government not only rejected the above-mentioned new proposal, but made known its intention to continue its aid to Chiang Kai-shek; and in spite of its suggestion mentioned above, withdrew the offer of the President to act as so-called 'introducer' of peace between Japan and China, pleading that time was not yet ripe for it. Finally on November 26th, in an attitude to impose upon the Japanese Government those principles it has persistently maintained, the American Government made a proposal totally ignoring Japanese claims, which is a source of profound regret to the Japanese Government.

4. From the beginning of the present negotiation the Japanese Government has always maintained an attitude of fairness and moderation, and did its best to reach a settlement, for which it made all possible concessions often in spite of great difficulties. As for the China question which constitutes an important subject of the negotiation, the Japanese Government showed a most conciliatory attitude. As for the principle of non-discrimination in international commerce, advocated by the American Government, the Japanese Government expressed its desire to see the said principle applied throughout the world, and declared that along with the actual practice of this principle in the world, the Japanese Government would endeavour to apply the same in the Pacific area including China, and made it clear that Japan had no intention of excluding from China economic activities of third powers pursued on an equitable basis. Furthermore, as regards the question of withdrawing troops from French Indo-China, the Japanese Government even volunteered, as mentioned above, to carry out an immediate evacuation of troops from Southern French Indo-China as a measure of easing the situation.

It is presumed that the spirit of conciliation exhibited to the utmost degree by the Japanese Government in all these matters is fully appreciated by the American Government.

On the other hand, the American Government, always holding fast to theories in disregard of realities, and refusing to yield an inch on its impractical principles, causes undue delay in the negotiation. It is difficult to understand this attitude of the American Government and the Japanese Government desires to call the attention of the American Government especially to the following points:

The American Government advocates in the name of world peace those principles favorable to it and urges upon the Japanese Government the acceptance thereof. The peace of the world may be brought about only by discovering a mutually acceptable formula through recognition of the reality of the situation and mutual appreciation of one another's position. An attitude such as ignores realities and impose (sic) one's selfish views upon others will scarcely serve the purpose of facilitating the consummation of negotiations.

Of the various principles put forward by the American Government as a basis of the Japanese-American Agreement, there are some which the Japanese Government is ready to accept in principle, but in view of the world's actual condition it seems only a utopian ideal on the part of the American Government to attempt to force their immediate adoption.

Again, the proposal to conclude a multilateral non-aggression pact between Japan, United States, Great Britain, China, the Soviet Union, the Netherlands and Thailand, which is patterned after the old concept of collective security, is far removed from the realities of East Asia.

The American proposal contained a stipulation which states -- 'Both Governments will agree that no agreement, which either has concluded with any third power or powers, shall be interpreted by it in such a way as to conflict with the fundamental purpose of this agreement, the establishment and preservation of peace throughout the Pacific area.' It is presumed that the above provision has been proposed with a view to restrain Japan from fulfilling its obligations under the Tripartite Pact when the United States participates in the war in Europe, and, as such, it cannot be accepted by the Japanese Government.

The American Government, obsessed with its own views and opinions, may be said to be scheming for the extension of the war. While it seeks, on the one hand, to secure its rear by stabilizing the Pacific Area, it is engaged, on the other hand, in aiding Great Britain and preparing to attack, in the name of self-defense, Germany and Italy two Powers that are striving to establish a new order in Europe. Such a policy is totally at variance with the many principles upon which the American Government proposes to found the stability of the Pacific Area through peaceful means.

Whereas the American Government, under the principles it rigidly upholds, objects to settle international issues through military pressure, it is exercising in conjunction with Great Britain and other nations pressure by economic power. Recourse to such pressure as a means of dealing with international relations should be condemned as it is at time more inhumane than military pressure.

It is impossible not to reach the conclusion that the American Government desires to maintain and strengthen, in coalition with Great Britain and other Powers, its dominant position it has hitherto occupied not only in China but in other areas of East Asia. It is a fact of history that the countries of East Asia have for the past two hundred years or more have been compelled to observe the status quo under the Anglo-American policy of imperialistic exploitation and to sacrifice themselves to he prosperity of the two nations. The Japanese Government cannot tolerate the perpetuation of such a situation since it directly runs counter to Japan's fundamental policy to enable all nations to enjoy each its proper place in the world.

The stipulation proposed by the American Government relative to French Indo-China is a good exemplification of the above-mentioned American policy. Thus the six countries -- Japan, the United States, Great Britain, the Netherlands, China, and Thailand -- excepting France, should undertake among themselves to respect the territorial integrity and sovereignty of French Indo-China and equality of treatment in trade and commerce would be tantamount to placing that territory under the joint guarantee of the Governments of those six countries. Apart from the fact that such a proposal totally ignores the position of France, it is unacceptable to the Japanese Government in that such an arrangement cannot but be considered as an extension to French Indo-China of a system similar to the Nine Power Treaty structure which is the chief factor responsible for the present predicament of East Asia.

All the items demanded of Japan by the American Government regarding China such as wholesale evacuation of troops or unconditional application of the principle of non-discrimination in international commerce ignored the actual conditions of China, and are calculated to destroy Japan's position as the stabilizing factor of East Asia. The attitude of the American Government in demanding Japan not to support militarily, politically or economically any regime other than the regime at Chungking, disregarding thereby the existence of the Nanking Government, shatters the very basis of the present negotiations. This demand of the American Government falling, as it does, in line with its above-mentioned refusal to cease from aiding the Chungking regime, demonstrates clearly the intention of the American Government to obstruct the restoration of normal relations between Japan and China and the return of peace to East Asia.

In brief, the American proposal contains certain acceptable items such as those concerning commerce, including the conclusion of a trade agreement, mutual removal of the freezing restrictions, and stabilization of yen and dollar exchange, or the abolition of extra-territorial rights in China. On the other hand, however, the proposal in question ignores Japan's sacrifices in the four years of the China Affair, menaces the Empire's existence itself and disparages its honour and prestige. Therefore, viewed in its entirety, the Japanese Government regrets it cannot accept the proposal as a basis of negotiation.

The Japanese Government, in its desire for an early conclusion of the negotiation, proposed simultaneously with the conclusion of the Japanese-American negotiation, agreements to be signed with Great Britain and other interested countries. The proposal was accepted by the American Government. However, since the American Government has made the proposal of November 26th as a result of frequent consultation with Great Britain, Australia, the Netherlands and Chungking, and presumably by catering to me wishes of the Chungking regime in the questions of China, it must be concluded that all these countries are at one with the United States in ignoring Japan's position.

Obviously it is the intention of the American Government to conspire with Great Britain and other countries to obstruct Japan's effort toward the establishment of peace through the creation of a new order in East Asia, and especially to preserve Anglo-American rights and interest by keeping Japan and China at war. This intention has been revealed clearly during the course of the present negotiation.

Thus the earnest hope of the Japanese Government to adjust Japanese-American relations and to preserve and promote the peace of the Pacific through cooperation with the American Government has finally been lost.

The Japanese Government regrets to have to notify hereby the American Government that in view of the attitude of the American Government it cannot but consider that it is impossible to reach an agreement through further negotiations.

December 7, 1941. "

https://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/PTO/Dip/Fourteen.html
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Aurelian
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Re: A Japanese invasion of Hawaii

Post by Aurelian »

https://www.gilderlehrman.org/history-r ... s-war-1941

EXCERPT
We, the Emperor of Japan, having acceded to the throne of the unbroken line of emperors which is for ages eternal, with the divine providence of the heavenly god, hereby proclaim unto our loyal and valorous subjects:

That we, the emperor, have now declared war upon the United States of America and Great Britain. The officers and men of our army and navy will concentrate their strength in engaging in battles, the members of our government will endeavor to carry out their assigned duties, our subjects throughout the empire will employ full strength to perform their respective tasks. Thus uniting one hundred million hearts and discharging the fullest strength of the nation, we expect all our subjects to strive to attain the ultimate objective of this expedition.
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Re: A Japanese invasion of Hawaii

Post by Aurelian »

RangerJoe wrote: Tue Dec 06, 2022 2:36 pm
The Japanese Government regrets to have to notify hereby the American Government that in view of the attitude of the American Government it cannot but consider that it is impossible to reach an agreement through further negotiations.

December 7, 1941. "

https://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/PTO/Dip/Fourteen.html
That part right there meant war was imminent.

But, no matter how we slice it, Yammamoto issued strict instructions that the attack was to be launched after the DoW. Preferably at least 30min after.
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Re: A Japanese invasion of Hawaii

Post by RangerJoe »

Aurelian wrote: Tue Dec 06, 2022 2:48 pm https://www.gilderlehrman.org/history-r ... s-war-1941

EXCERPT
We, the Emperor of Japan, having acceded to the throne of the unbroken line of emperors which is for ages eternal, with the divine providence of the heavenly god, hereby proclaim unto our loyal and valorous subjects:

That we, the emperor, have now declared war upon the United States of America and Great Britain. The officers and men of our army and navy will concentrate their strength in engaging in battles, the members of our government will endeavor to carry out their assigned duties, our subjects throughout the empire will employ full strength to perform their respective tasks. Thus uniting one hundred million hearts and discharging the fullest strength of the nation, we expect all our subjects to strive to attain the ultimate objective of this expedition.
Yes, that is a Declaration of War. But I did not see that in the message that I posted.
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Re: A Japanese invasion of Hawaii

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Aurelian wrote: Tue Dec 06, 2022 3:03 pm
RangerJoe wrote: Tue Dec 06, 2022 2:36 pm
The Japanese Government regrets to have to notify hereby the American Government that in view of the attitude of the American Government it cannot but consider that it is impossible to reach an agreement through further negotiations.

December 7, 1941. "

https://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/PTO/Dip/Fourteen.html
That part right there meant war was imminent.

But, no matter how we slice it, Yammamoto issued strict instructions that the attack was to be launched after the DoW. Preferably at least 30min after.
The way that I understand that quote, I take it as "Unless you change your attitude and demands, it is not worth discussing this anymore." But it does not necessarily mean that war is imminent.

Oh well, there is a certain movie to watch tomorrow . . .
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Re: A Japanese invasion of Hawaii

Post by Curtis Lemay »

Buckrock wrote: Mon Dec 05, 2022 5:10 pm
Curtis Lemay wrote: Mon Dec 05, 2022 4:34 pm
Buckrock wrote: Mon Dec 05, 2022 3:00 am Sorry but you're just spitballing again. It's effectively meaningless unless you start supplying some specifics for your plan like the ones I identified earlier. That way we'll at least have something to compare against relevant historical accounts.
Whatever you're talking about is too trivial to respond to. The APDs have to be 100 miles from Maui 12 hours ahead of the fleet arriving at the launch point. Trivial.
Wasn't what I was asking for in that particular post but OK, then walk through the starting distances of KB and the APDs from Maui at the time the "2 CVs" go order is received and then show how the APDs end up both 100 miles from Maui and 12 hours ahead of KB.
Those are operational details the Japanese can figure out. A couple of days out, or so, the APDs top off from the capitol ships then set sail for that point while the rest of the fleet holds in place. When they get far enough west and 12 hours ahead, the fleet resumes its sail to the launch point. This is trivial!
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Re: A Japanese invasion of Hawaii

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Aurelian wrote: Tue Dec 06, 2022 1:48 pm I don't remember if this was covered, and I don't want to search through 30+ pages, so here we go.

The attack was to take place at least 30 minutes after Japan declared war. Thanks to screw ups at the Japanese Embassy, it didn't get delivered until after 0830 Hawaii time.

So. you have the 1st Air Fleet stoogine around waiting to see if any carriers show up in Pearl. You have these DDs stooging around waiting for whatever. Oh, and US air patrols were concentrated to the SW.

All the while, by 0830 at the latest, the declaration of war is delivered.

Now what?
If the raid is canceled up to a day prior to launch, the whole thing never even gets sent out. Even canceling up to an hour before the raid would still only require a code word to prevent the DoW being delivered.
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Re: A Japanese invasion of Hawaii

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Aurelian wrote: Mon Dec 05, 2022 8:20 pm And the army was quite willing to postpone securing the seizure of the SRA by diverting units from the PI to invade a tiny island or two that not only wouldn't do diddly for that, but that they couldn't possibly hold.

Pearl Harbor generated an all consuming rage at the Japanese. Now, in this "plan", Japanese troops land on Hawaii. Quite possibly FDR might of had to go with Japan first rather than Germany
The PH operation got approved. If credible flaws in it were realized, they could approve adjustments to fix it. Sinking two carriers and delaying US response by two years is a clinching argument!
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Re: A Japanese invasion of Hawaii

Post by Aurelian »

RangerJoe wrote: Tue Dec 06, 2022 3:28 pm
Aurelian wrote: Tue Dec 06, 2022 3:03 pm
RangerJoe wrote: Tue Dec 06, 2022 2:36 pm
The Japanese Government regrets to have to notify hereby the American Government that in view of the attitude of the American Government it cannot but consider that it is impossible to reach an agreement through further negotiations.

December 7, 1941. "

https://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/PTO/Dip/Fourteen.html
That part right there meant war was imminent.

But, no matter how we slice it, Yammamoto issued strict instructions that the attack was to be launched after the DoW. Preferably at least 30min after.
The way that I understand that quote, I take it as "Unless you change your attitude and demands, it is not worth discussing this anymore." But it does not necessarily mean that war is imminent.

Oh well, there is a certain movie to watch tomorrow . . .
Since neither side was going to back down, what else is there?
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Re: A Japanese invasion of Hawaii

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Aurelian wrote: Tue Dec 06, 2022 11:04 pm
RangerJoe wrote: Tue Dec 06, 2022 3:28 pm
Aurelian wrote: Tue Dec 06, 2022 3:03 pm

That part right there meant war was imminent.

But, no matter how we slice it, Yammamoto issued strict instructions that the attack was to be launched after the DoW. Preferably at least 30min after.
The way that I understand that quote, I take it as "Unless you change your attitude and demands, it is not worth discussing this anymore." But it does not necessarily mean that war is imminent.

Oh well, there is a certain movie to watch tomorrow . . .
Since neither side was going to back down, what else is there?
A pause with a consensus upon what was agreed upon, then people actually sitting down and discussion the situation. As a note according to my understanding, when the US government referred to "China" it did not also include "Manchuria/Manchukuo" which the Japanese government thought that the US government included in "China." That was a major sticking point.
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Re: A Japanese invasion of Hawaii

Post by KingHart »

Curtis Lemay wrote: Tue Dec 06, 2022 5:02 pm
Buckrock wrote: Mon Dec 05, 2022 5:10 pm
Curtis Lemay wrote: Mon Dec 05, 2022 4:34 pm
Whatever you're talking about is too trivial to respond to. The APDs have to be 100 miles from Maui 12 hours ahead of the fleet arriving at the launch point. Trivial.
Wasn't what I was asking for in that particular post but OK, then walk through the starting distances of KB and the APDs from Maui at the time the "2 CVs" go order is received and then show how the APDs end up both 100 miles from Maui and 12 hours ahead of KB.
Those are operational details the Japanese can figure out. A couple of days out, or so, the APDs top off from the capitol ships then set sail for that point while the rest of the fleet holds in place. When they get far enough west and 12 hours ahead, the fleet resumes its sail to the launch point. This is trivial!
What do the Japanese do when the APDs are detected sailing within 100 miles of Pearl Harbor on the afternoon of Saturday 6 December?
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Re: A Japanese invasion of Hawaii

Post by KingHart »

Curtis Lemay wrote: Tue Dec 06, 2022 5:05 pm
Aurelian wrote: Tue Dec 06, 2022 1:48 pm I don't remember if this was covered, and I don't want to search through 30+ pages, so here we go.

The attack was to take place at least 30 minutes after Japan declared war. Thanks to screw ups at the Japanese Embassy, it didn't get delivered until after 0830 Hawaii time.

So. you have the 1st Air Fleet stoogine around waiting to see if any carriers show up in Pearl. You have these DDs stooging around waiting for whatever. Oh, and US air patrols were concentrated to the SW.

All the while, by 0830 at the latest, the declaration of war is delivered.

Now what?
If the raid is canceled up to a day prior to launch, the whole thing never even gets sent out. Even canceling up to an hour before the raid would still only require a code word to prevent the DoW being delivered.
Historically, the raid commenced at roughly 0800 7 December. So you are claiming the Japanese could cancel the raid, and not declare war, at 0700 7 December.
You have also stated that the invasion of Maui will commence at 2300 6 December. How will the Japanese explain the presence of several infantry battalions on Maui without a DoW?
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Re: A Japanese invasion of Hawaii

Post by KingHart »

Curtis Lemay wrote: Tue Dec 06, 2022 5:08 pm
Aurelian wrote: Mon Dec 05, 2022 8:20 pm And the army was quite willing to postpone securing the seizure of the SRA by diverting units from the PI to invade a tiny island or two that not only wouldn't do diddly for that, but that they couldn't possibly hold.

Pearl Harbor generated an all consuming rage at the Japanese. Now, in this "plan", Japanese troops land on Hawaii. Quite possibly FDR might of had to go with Japan first rather than Germany
The PH operation got approved. If credible flaws in it were realized, they could approve adjustments to fix it. Sinking two carriers and delaying US response by two years is a clinching argument!
Please explain how any part of your "plan" both guarantees the sinking of two carriers and delays any US response.
Please also explain what exactly you mean by "delaying " any US response. Are you referring to when the US will begin a counterattack against Japan in the Pacific?
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Re: A Japanese invasion of Hawaii

Post by Buckrock »

Curtis Lemay wrote: Tue Dec 06, 2022 5:02 pm Those are operational details the Japanese can figure out.
But not operational details you can figure out and yet you're saying it definitely could have happened. Which seems to sum up the way you've tried selling your plan since page 1.
Curtis Lemay wrote: A couple of days out, or so,....
A couple of days out from where? And what would that be in distance and direction from objective(s)?
Curtis Lemay wrote: ....the APDs top off from the capitol ships....
Why are the APDs bothering the capital ships? Where have the dozens of tankers gone?
Curtis Lemay wrote: ....then set sail for that point....
Sail to what point? And what would that point be in distance and direction from objective(s)?
Curtis Lemay wrote: ....while the rest of the fleet holds in place.
Holds in place? Have both the USN CVs also agreed to definitely remain in port while the Japanese sort themselves out?
Curtis Lemay wrote: When they get far enough west and 12 hours ahead,.....
How will KB know the APDs have reached this "far enough west" point? Is someone going to use a radio? And isn't west back towards Japan?
Curtis Lemay wrote: ....the fleet resumes its sail to the launch point.
And when the bored USN CVs start leaving PH and the abort message has to be sent, how can it be ensured that everyone from KB to the Malayan invasion force will get word in time? And who in Hawaii sends the initial abort message that will hopefully lead to this mass turn around stretching the length of the Pacific? Can the initial abort message inform everyone or will it have to suffer the delays of being relayed via Tokyo?
Curtis Lemay wrote: This is trivial!
Sorry but to determine the worth of a plan, sometimes even the trivial can be worth a pursuit. ;)
This was the only sig line I could think of.
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warspite1
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Re: A Japanese invasion of Hawaii

Post by warspite1 »

Buckrock wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:55 am
How will KB know the APDs have reached this "far enough west" point? Is someone going to use a radio? And isn't west back towards Japan?
warspite1

....and of course there is the poor Betty pilots and coordination with them. Remember these aircrew - almost 300 of them - and their 40 valuable bombers have been given a mission thus:

- we want you to take off for a 15 hour flight, over water, largely at night, with weather conditions uncertain.
- at the point of take-off not only is there no airfield to land on, but the attack to take the airfield hasn’t even begun and it may be cancelled
- the attack on Maui can be cancelled up to an hour before the raid (I believe Curtis Lemay said) but that is a problem as the Bettys reach the point of no return long before then. At that point onwards only a watery grave awaits the pilots..... or....
- .."...Curtis Lemay has spoken of situations in which the PH raid itself would be aborted. Who is going to tell the Betty pilots this?
- as often happens in war, comms break down. So imagine a force of 40 Bettys approaching Pearl Harbor ready to attack.... only to find there’s no attack. Aren’t the US going to wonder why they are there?

I mean seriously, the Japanese wouldn’t even need to consider what may go wrong. They would simply look at all the things that would need to go right in order not to throw away 40 valuable aircraft and their almost 300 even more valuable aircrew. Who would possibly think this is a sensible use of scarce resource.

The whole point of Pearl Harbor was to cripple the USN so that Japan could obtain the Southern Resource Area. This didn’t mean that in crippling the USN, the Japanese could afford to cripple themselves.

If Yamamoto put this forward as a viable plan, surely there would only be one outcome; taxi for Yamamoto.
Last edited by warspite1 on Wed Dec 07, 2022 5:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
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warspite1
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Re: A Japanese invasion of Hawaii

Post by warspite1 »

A question for Afficionados of the Japanese navy. This plan keeps changing to beat off challenges put up. But I believe the plan,at least at one point, envisaged Zeros from one of the carriers flying to the airfield on Maui to support the Bettys.

I understand that just before Midway (just six months into the war - a war that had largely seen only success for the Japanese) the front line carriers were slightly understrength and the second line carriers had major problems getting enough aircrew/airplanes to actually bring the air component up to strength. That being the case, how easily could Japan have replaced the Zero pilots and brought the carrier back up to strength in December 1941?

I also believe that the Zeros originally earmarked for the Luzon operation were to replace the Zeros sent to Maui, but that assumes these land based pilots had carrier training. Again I am not certain, but I don’t believe they all necesarily were.

Japan had a major problem with training sufficient carrier based aircrew to meet war losses once the war started. Losing these carrier based fighters from one of the main Japanese carriers, may potentially have put that carrier out of action for a while, no? Unless they denuded the second line carriers further.
Last edited by warspite1 on Thu Dec 08, 2022 4:40 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: A Japanese invasion of Hawaii

Post by RangerJoe »

warspite1 wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 4:58 am
Buckrock wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:55 am
How will KB know the APDs have reached this "far enough west" point? Is someone going to use a radio? And isn't west back towards Japan?
warspite1

....and of course there is the poor Betty pilots and coordination with them. Remember these aircrew - almost 300 of them - and their 40 valuable bombers have been given a mission thus:

- we want you to take off for a 15 hour flight, over water, largely at night, with weather conditions uncertain.
- at the point of take-off not only is there no airfield to land on, but the attack to take the airfield hasn’t even begun and it may be cancelled
- the attack on Maui can be cancelled up to an hour before the raid (I believe Curtis Lemay said) but that is a problem as the Bettys reach the point of no return long before then. At that point onwards only a watery grave awaits the pilots..... or....
- .."...Curtis Lemay has spoken of situations in which the PH raid itself would be aborted. Who is going to tell the Betty pilots this?
- as often happens in war, comms break down. So imagine a force of 40 Bettys approaching Pearl Harbor ready to attack.... only to find there’s no attack. Aren’t the US going to wonder why they are there?

I mean seriously, the Japanese wouldn’t even need to consider what may go wrong. They would simply look at all the things that would need to go right in order not to throw away 40 valuable aircraft and their almost 300 even more valuable aircrew. Who would possibly think this is a sensible use of scarce resource.

The whole point of Pearl Harbor was to cripple the USN so that Japan could obtain the Southern Resource Area. This didn’t mean that in crippling the USN, the Japanese could afford to cripple themselves.

If Yamamoto put this forward as a viable plan, surely there would only be one outcome; taxi for Yamamoto.
I don't think that Yamamoto would have been given the choice of a taxi. There were other methods used at the time.
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