A Japanese invasion of Hawaii

[warspite1]

Names of units are just chrome.

warspite1

Names are chrome if you want to be able to use the same units in two different places. If you want to put forward a coherent plan, names are kind of vital.

No. They're chrome. I've identified the planes used. That's all that is necessay.

warspite1

Not at all. WWII was not fought in silos. The units - ships, troops and planes you've removed from one order of battle, the destroyers you've removed from the Japanese destroyer strength to become transports, the units you'vve used differently - were all needed by the Japanese in battles still to come. There is a knock on, there are no free lunches. Name the units in the plan and we can properly assess the damage caused to the Japanese war effort.

[warspite1]

The inital supply delivery will last a month. Time enough to torch Pearl and the oil stocks. The planes can fly out if necessary. The troops will trade their lives for American ones if they can't be rescued.

warspite1

Well if you detail a plan of action with a timetable we might be able to judge the likelihood of this supply delivery making it to Maui.

I have, repeatedly. The APDs return to Maui after the raid begins. They and the ships carrying the ground crews unload that afternoon - long before the US can be expected to interfere.

warspite1

So give us a detailed timetable. At the moment your plan is this:

The Japanese do stuff, using some stuff, and it all goes off in perfect time and without a hitch.

That is not a plan.

[warspite1]

Only if you ignore sinking TWO US CARRIERS and delaying US response by TWO YEARS!!!!

warspite1

Except the losses suffered by the Japanese, and the disclocation suffered to their plan for the SRA are so great that the inconvenience the US suffer while Oahu recovers and the defenders of Maui are destroyed means that two US carriers is a fair swap.

You've admitted yourself, the KB can't stay off Oahu. The Japanese can't reinforce or re-supply Maui with anything without major jeopardy for whatever is sent to try it. The first thing the USN will do is set up a submarine cordon around Maui.

Those units that did manage to land on Maui will soon wish they hadn't. Pearl will suffer barely any more damage (if any) than it did historically and Maui will be taken back by fresh troops from the mainland.

If only the Japanese had tried this in real life. Would have ended the war much earlier.

Now THAT'S wishful thinking! Maui is defended by a small force at peace on a sunday. The island will be infiltrated by 2400 soldiers at night and guided to optimum strike points by 8:00am. They will then take the facilities by surprise and in the rear. Once established, they will quickly torch any ships remaining in Pearl and the oil stocks. Then they can finish off any BBs not yet sunk. Once air superiority is established, it will be very hard for the US to regain Maui.

This remains a no brainer. Is it guaranteed? Of course not, but it has such a huge payoff - for the risk of a couple of battalions - its foolish not to take the option.

warspite1

Give us the plan and we can look at it. You can't claim what you've claimed because you don’t appear to know where the Japanese could land, and thus where the invasion beach is in relation to the 'jungle' they need to hide in or where the airfield and port they need to take is.

[warspite1]

Nimitz disagrees with you.

warspite1

Not at all. You see what the great Chester Nimitz was talking about (the Pearl raid) is not what I am talking about (your plan).

No. He was talking about how vulnerable the oil stocks were and what their loss would cost the US plans. Those stocks are going to be torched long before the US can eject the Japs from Maui.

warspite1

Well if you give us your plan we can discuss how practical that is. From what you've said so far, not one bit of damage over and above the real life raid (save the carriers) will be incurred. Not only that, but Japanese naval air losses will be significantly higher.

[warspite1]

Repeat: The Zeros left on Maui will be swapped out with the Luzon Zeros as soon as Midway is operational. From that point the carriers will have historical complements.

warspite1

Or more likely the Zeros on Maui, unsupplied and with no AA defence, will be whittled down to nothing within days - assuming they even got to Maui. The Bettys won't last that long.

Here's the most contemporary evidence we have of US performace expectations at this time:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attack_on_Clark_Field

And no plan, no timetable has been put forward for the capture of Midway.

Midway will be captured as soon as the carriers get there from Pearl.

warspite1

Using what? As soon as? Do you know how many air strikes were carried out on Wake before it fell? How can you say how quickly something can be done when you don't know who the attackers or the defenders are?

[Curtis Lemay]

Okay, let me see if I have this right-
You are proposing that Japan send 48 Betty bombers, with no ammo or bomb loads (or fighter escort), on a 2500-mile flight, to an island none of the pilots have ever flown to before, at night, regardless of weather conditions, with nowhere to land when they arrive, out of fuel when they arrive, and in close proximity to both an alerted US carrier and an alerted Pearl Harbor at the end of their flight?

I guess I have to repeat everything special just for you because you can't be asked to read the thread.

The Bettys fly from from Eniwetok - 2715 miles from Oahu and 2813 miles from Maui. The range of the Bettys is 3132 miles fully loaded and 3749 miles unloaded. Depending on the winds - determined by a Mavis prerun check of them - they choose one or the other. If the winds are right, they can transfer loaded and raid Oahu before heading to Maui. If they are not, they can fly direct to Maui, load bombs there and then raid Oahu. They don't arrive at night. And the pathfinders will guide them to Maui.

And you claim it is the US that is "clueless"...

Yep. Ignored radar detection of the raid, a minisub trying to enter the harbor, bungled the ultimatum warning, piled planes together, had no ammo for the AAA, and Washington initially couldn't believe the reports of the raid. Finally, Clark Field had its planes on the ground 9 hours after Pearl.

Please explain - What is your Midway invasion force? / Where do these units come from? / Where is the invasion force during the Pearl Harbor raid? / How are you suppling fuel to all these ships? / Where and how many tankers?

Four battalions from the postponed Luzon invasion. The invasion is synched with the carriers getting to Midway from Pearl. Whatever was used for the Luzon invasion is now available for repurposing, including the Midway op.

Please explain - How are the supplies delivered to Maui after the raid? / Where are the cargo ships during the raid? / Where are the ground crews and their supplies during the raid and how do they get to Maui after the raid? / How are you fueling the cargo ships?

After the raid begins the APDs return to Maui, along with the ground crew ships. All these ships rejoin the raid fleet and are refueled just as they are.

Please explain - Exactly what is the OOB of your Maui invasion? (1 battalion? /2 battalions? 4 battalions?) / What are their objectives? (airfield only? /airfield and port?)

Two battalions. Airfield, port and barracks.

Please explain - How are all the Japanese units informed if an abort is called? / What if the Betty bombers are not informed? How does your abort affect the other Japanese offensives? (Malaya / Borneo)

Code words. By radio.

[Curtis Lemay]

Okay, let me see if I have this right-
You are proposing that Japan send 48 Betty bombers, with no ammo or bomb loads (or fighter escort), on a 2500-mile flight, to an island none of the pilots have ever flown to before, at night, regardless of weather conditions, with nowhere to land when they arrive, out of fuel when they arrive, and in close proximity to both an alerted US carrier and an alerted Pearl Harbor at the end of their flight?

I guess I have to repeat everything special just for you because you can't be asked to read the thread.

The Bettys fly from from Eniwetok - 2715 miles from Oahu and 2813 miles from Maui. The range of the Bettys is 3132 miles fully loaded and 3749 miles unloaded. Depending on the winds - determined by a Mavis prerun check of them - they choose one or the other. If the winds are right, they can transfer loaded and raid Oahu before heading to Maui. If they are not, they can fly direct to Maui, load bombs there and then raid Oahu. They don't arrive at night. And the pathfinders will guide them to Maui.

And you claim it is the US that is "clueless"...

Yep. Ignored radar detection of the raid, a minisub trying to enter the harbor, bungled the ultimatum warning, piled planes together, had no ammo for the AAA, and Washington initially couldn't believe the reports of the raid. Finally, Clark Field had its planes on the ground 9 hours after Pearl.

[quote[Please explain - What is your Midway invasion force? / Where do these units come from? / Where is the invasion force during the Pearl Harbor raid? / How are you suppling fuel to all these ships? / Where and how many tankers?

Four battalions from the postponed Luzon invasion. The invasion is synched with the carriers getting to Midway from Pearl. Whatever was used for the Luzon invasion is now available for repurposing, including the Midway op.

Please explain - How are the supplies delivered to Maui after the raid? / Where are the cargo ships during the raid? / Where are the ground crews and their supplies during the raid and how do they get to Maui after the raid? / How are you fueling the cargo ships?

After the raid begins the APDs return to Maui, along with the ground crew ships. All these ships rejoin the raid fleet and are refueled just as they are.

Please explain - Exactly what is the OOB of your Maui invasion? (1 battalion? /2 battalions? 4 battalions?) / What are their objectives? (airfield only? /airfield and port?)

Two battalions. Airfield, port and barracks.

Please explain - How are all the Japanese units informed if an abort is called? / What if the Betty bombers are not informed? How does your abort affect the other Japanese offensives? (Malaya / Borneo)

Code words. By radio. The entire Pacific is aborted.

[warspite1]

The pathfinders will have that scoped. Regardless, Japanese were superb at camo. Anyone who was on Guadalcanal can atest.

warspite1

It doesn't matter what these pathfinders have scoped. If the best landing beach is too far from a safe place to hide out then its too far. But the sentence underlined is priceless. I can imagine 2,000 Japanese troops (and their equipment) disguised as nuns on a field trip to the beach.....or perhaps lamposts in downtown Puunene, where they stand very still for 24 hours?

Erm.... wasn't Guadalcanal jungle? Or were their disguises so good they weren't spotted in the Solomon Islands jungle even when dressed as Mother Superior and her gang of nuns? Sorry I am unclear here.

Is there anything these supermen can't do? I must find me a Code of Bushido pill....

Try watching "The Thin Red Line".

And, I repeat, Maui is 727 square miles in area. They will not be spotted.

warspite1

The size of Maui has nothing to do with it. Do you know what? If the Germans had tried Sealion they could have hidden out in acres of rugged highland mountainside. Why? Because the Germans were attacking Great Britain..... er hold on, no they couldn't because the Germans would have landed in southeast England and not Wales, Northern England or Scotland.

So, as has been requested a million times, please confirm which beach the Japanese will come ashore on and how close this is to jungle, Puunene airfield and the port the Japanese need.

[warspite1]

What takeoff and landing accidents did the carrier aircraft suffer at Pearl Harbor, historically?

warspite1

I would politely suggest that you read a little more on naval warfare - and particularly on Pearl Harbor, but carrier warfare in general works - and it will tell you what a risky business it was.

The point being, because you have decided two carriers worth of Zeros will head for Maui (36 aircraft), that is not necessarily the number that will arrive on the island (assuming the airfield is ever taken).

Your Maui Zeros will start reducing from the moment they take-off and they fly to Pearl for the raid, then fly back and land, and then take off for Maui and land there. All of this is non-combat loss - and can be significant. And then you have the combat losses to add.....

On Maui you have no spare engines, no spare parts of any sort, and no spare ammunition. Your '36' Zeros are not going to be '36' for very long....

[warspite1]

The APDs will have about the same space per man as the Torch ships had.

warspite1

Fair enough. Can you quote the dimensions of the troop ships that took US troops to Casablanca from the East Coast, and those of the Japanese destroyer conversion just to support your statement please?

That's not necessay. Whatever the space on any transport was, military planners will fill it to the max with troops. We can be sure Torch was no luxury trip.

And it took 18 days at sea!!!!! You can't wiggle off that.

warspite1

I am not seeking to wiggle off anything. If I am wrong then I am wrong. I asked you to provide details to support your statement. Once again, sadly, there is a lot of talk and no detail. No one is suggesting the crossing for Torch was a luxury trip. However, we can be certain of a couple of things:

- The US troops would have had a more comfortable crossing than the Japanese
- The US knew how long they would be at sea for. The Japanese are at sea until these pesky carriers turn up - could be months. Fact is, no one at the time knows....

[warspite1]

Another extraordinary set of claims.... this is a 15 hour flight.

The weather conditions can't be guaranteed.
Putting down in the sea is fraught with danger. How about at night or in a storm?
Which series of Japanese ships are going to be tracking the aircraft on their 15 hour flight? Do you envisage a relay of Japanese rescue vessels spread liberally along a line Marshalls-Oahu?
According to your earlier statement, an abort order could be given one hour before the raid. How much fuel do the Bettys have at this point? Some of those rescue ships better be close to the PI.....

They can trade themselves for an American ship? Well not if the abort order is the reason they are turning back. But the fact you even say this shows that the sacrifice of 40 Bettys and almost 300 aircrew for nothing is, according to you, not even a problem for the Japanese? This is plainly not the case.

The same crap, over and over and over.

Try and pay attention: The transfer range (unarmed) of the Betty was 3749 miles. The distance to Maui from Eniwetok is 2813 miles. That gives them 936 miles to spare - if they are flying unarmed. Plenty of range to find the Jap fleet, since they know where it is.

If the winds are such that they can transfer armed, their range is 3132 miles and the distance to Oahu is 2715 miles - 417 miles to spare. If the winds allow it - and they will precede the strike with a test run by a Mavis to check the winds - they will be able to wreak havoc on cruisers and destroyers in Pearl.

The raid will not be canceled after the Bettys pass the point of no return.

warspite1

Let me ensure I have this right.

The raid - and the Japanese decision to be at war with the United States of America, The British Empire and the Dutch - is now dependent on the 48 Bettys?

So in order not to throw away 48 Bettys and over 300 aircrew, if the Bettys are past the point of no return, then EVEN IF THE PEARL HARBOR RAID HAS PREVIOUSLY BEEN COMPROMISED, it will still go ahead.

The 1st Air Fleet will now be running headlong into an alerted US but, the raid can't be cancelled.

The fate of Japan rests on whether the Bettys have no landing ground that they can reach.....????

Got to admit, the plan is getting more interesting with each post.

[Curtis Lemay]

Sorry, what has this got to do with the scenario being discussed?
Peacetime SOP was that all flyable aircraft from a CV would be expected to be landed ashore if the carrier was going to moor in harbor. And I should point out the Enterprise never entered PH on Dec 7th so the fact that it may have still had aircraft on board on that day is irrelevant.

Yet our historical example from the raid contradicts that.

It does not. Again for clarity, the SOP in peacetime for a USN CV coming into moor at Pearl Harbor was that it would be expected to fly off its CAG to Luke Field prior to entering harbor. That's what Enterprise was in the middle of doing with her CAG until peacetime suddenly became wartime.

And if central to your plans is the requirement that the carriers be in port before you attack, why are you concerning yourself about whether the Enterprise at sea intended to transfer her air group all in one flight or in several prior to entering PH? All that matters is that she wouldn't have had her CAG aboard when she moored under peacetime SOP.

Anyway, the Enterprise expected to enter PH late afternoon on the 7th and intended to land her aircraft ashore prior to entering harbor. The process was started when her morning search aircraft were ordered to land at Luke Field when they completed their outer search arcs as PH would then be closer than Enterprise. The rest of the CAG would follow later that day when Enterprise was closer to PH. Unfortunately war then intervened on the rest of the peacetime plan and Enterprise operated away from PH for the rest of the 7th.

So the peacetime SOP as I described it was being followed in this example and would have had Enterprise moored in PH at the end of the day and with her aircraft at Luke Field had war not interrupted the process. There is no contradiction.

All I'm saying is that the only historical example we have did not follow the above. Enterprise still had 2/3s of her aircraft aboard when she got to Pearl.

You forget Clark Field.

Here's the link to the raid on Clark Field:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attack_on_Clark_Field

Remember: This was 9 hours after Pearl. It's the only contemporary evidence of US readiness immediately post Pearl.

The US has just been stunned by Pearl Harbor. That's all the Japs need to get into position on Maui.

[Curtis Lemay]

It did.

Not to abort the entire Pacific if the carriers are not in port.

True. The historical Japanese knew their practical planning limits.

Radios used from where? Maui? Oahu? Who tells Tokyo to spread the word that the mission is aborted?

Radios everywhere. Tokyo makes the abort decision. If it does, then it sends out the abort code words to all.

So how is there no delay when Tokyo can't even start transmitting the Pacific wide abort order until it first receives the information from the Hawaiian Islands. And who in the Hawaiian Islands is sending the information? I know what the historical Japanese did to get information to Tokyo but as normal we've got no details about your process.

If you don't stop spitballing and instead start detailing soon, I'm going to withdraw my help in guiding you back to WWII reality.

Your choice.

Clearly, the issue has become much more important with this plan. Therefore it will have much higher priority. They have radios and code words. That's all that's needed.

[Curtis Lemay]

warspite1

Names are chrome if you want to be able to use the same units in two different places. If you want to put forward a coherent plan, names are kind of vital.

No. They're chrome. I've identified the planes used. That's all that is necessay.

warspite1

Not at all. WWII was not fought in silos. The units - ships, troops and planes you've removed from one order of battle, the destroyers you've removed from the Japanese destroyer strength to become transports, the units you'vve used differently - were all needed by the Japanese in battles still to come. There is a knock on, there are no free lunches. Name the units in the plan and we can properly assess the damage caused to the Japanese war effort.

The names of units are chrome. Nothing more. All that matters is the planes used and I've identified them. Luzon has been postponed - that frees up lots of stuff for use elsewhere. Other operations will be facilitated by that - not harmed. Even the APDs are returned to general use once the troops on Maui are delivered.

[Curtis Lemay]

Another extraordinary set of claims.... this is a 15 hour flight.

The weather conditions can't be guaranteed.
Putting down in the sea is fraught with danger. How about at night or in a storm?
Which series of Japanese ships are going to be tracking the aircraft on their 15 hour flight? Do you envisage a relay of Japanese rescue vessels spread liberally along a line Marshalls-Oahu?
According to your earlier statement, an abort order could be given one hour before the raid. How much fuel do the Bettys have at this point? Some of those rescue ships better be close to the PI.....

They can trade themselves for an American ship? Well not if the abort order is the reason they are turning back. But the fact you even say this shows that the sacrifice of 40 Bettys and almost 300 aircrew for nothing is, according to you, not even a problem for the Japanese? This is plainly not the case.

The same crap, over and over and over.

Try and pay attention: The transfer range (unarmed) of the Betty was 3749 miles. The distance to Maui from Eniwetok is 2813 miles. That gives them 936 miles to spare - if they are flying unarmed. Plenty of range to find the Jap fleet, since they know where it is.

If the winds are such that they can transfer armed, their range is 3132 miles and the distance to Oahu is 2715 miles - 417 miles to spare. If the winds allow it - and they will precede the strike with a test run by a Mavis to check the winds - they will be able to wreak havoc on cruisers and destroyers in Pearl.

The raid will not be canceled after the Bettys pass the point of no return.

warspite1

Let me ensure I have this right.

The raid - and the Japanese decision to be at war with the United States of America, The British Empire and the Dutch - is now dependent on the 48 Bettys?

So in order not to throw away 48 Bettys and over 300 aircrew, if the Bettys are past the point of no return, then EVEN IF THE PEARL HARBOR RAID HAS PREVIOUSLY BEEN COMPROMISED, it will still go ahead.

The 1st Air Fleet will now be running headlong into an alerted US but, the raid can't be cancelled.

The fate of Japan rests on whether the Bettys have no landing ground that they can reach.....????

Got to admit, the plan is getting more interesting with each post.

That point of no return is probably reached about the time the raid begins. Certainly long after the raid is launched.

[Curtis Lemay]

So, as has been requested a million times, please confirm which beach the Japanese will come ashore on and how close this is to jungle, Puunene airfield and the port the Japanese need.

That will be determined by the pathfinders. They've had months to determine the optimum choices.

[Buckrock]

So the peacetime SOP as I described it was being followed in this example and would have had Enterprise moored in PH at the end of the day and with her aircraft at Luke Field had war not interrupted the process. There is no contradiction.

All I'm saying is that the only historical example we have did not follow the above. Enterprise still had 2/3s of her aircraft aboard when she got to Pearl.

The examples of the peace time SOP can be referenced. Even your quora "experts" mentioned it.

When the Enterprise got to PH on the historical Dec 8th "with aircraft aboard", it was wartime and under emergency conditions. When the USN CVs in your scenario enter port before your raid, it will be peace time conditions and that SOP means the flyable aircraft from their CAGs are landed at Luke Field.

Here's the link to the raid on Clark Field:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attack_on_Clark_Field

Remember: This was 9 hours after Pearl. It's the only contemporary evidence of US readiness immediately post Pearl.

I know the historical details. I also know what the US aircraft had been doing all morning in anticipation of a raid that the Japanese would have attempted had weather not intervened. As I said, lay out some proper details for your PH raid plan and I'll be happy to discuss it.

The US has just been stunned by Pearl Harbor. That's all the Japs need to get into position on Maui.

And yet during the historical PH Raid, Maui was alerted, actively moving to defend itself and was able to receive and respond to direct orders from PH. Being stunned doesn't mean being comatose. Put forward the requested details regarding Maui and we can discuss it.

[Buckrock]

Not to abort the entire Pacific if the carriers are not in port.

True. The historical Japanese knew their practical planning limits.

Radios everywhere. Tokyo makes the abort decision. If it does, then it sends out the abort code words to all.

So how is there no delay when Tokyo can't even start transmitting the Pacific wide abort order until it first receives the information from the Hawaiian Islands. And who in the Hawaiian Islands is sending the information? I know what the historical Japanese did to get information to Tokyo but as normal we've got no details about your process.

If you don't stop spitballing and instead start detailing soon, I'm going to withdraw my help in guiding you back to WWII reality.

Your choice.

Clearly, the issue has become much more important with this plan. Therefore it will have much higher priority. They have radios and code words. That's all that's needed.

We're hungry for convincing detail but you just keep serving up the same nothing-burger.

[warspite1]

So, as has been requested a million times, please confirm which beach the Japanese will come ashore on and how close this is to jungle, Puunene airfield and the port the Japanese need.

That will be determined by the pathfinders. They've had months to determine the optimum choices.

warspite1

Great point. So what if these 'Pathfinders' decide the best beach, that is deserted enough and has enough jungle around it, is 200 miles from Puunene?

I can't say it is - but importantly you can't say it isn't. Therefore as things stand, as far as Maui is concerned, you simply have no plan.

[warspite1]

All I'm saying is that the only historical example we have did not follow the above. Enterprise still had 2/3s of her aircraft aboard when she got to Pearl.

warspite1

No. The historical example is an aircraft carrier sailing into port in wartime.
We are talking about an aircraft carrier in port, having previously sailed into port in peactime.