New scenario for testing: The old vs the new, The Madagascar crisis

[Stanley_The_Rolmate]

The old vs the new
The Madagascar crisis of 2025

After the country's turbulent 2023 election the new government of Madagascar started to greatly increase the country's ties with China.
This culminated in a visit of the Chinese foreign minister to the capital Antananarivo in early 2024.
At the end of the visit, the Chinese foreign minister and the president of Madagascar signed a number of treaties deeply strengthening the country's economic and political ties with China.
During the spring and summer of 2024 China announced a number of large scale investments in Madagascar. At the same time Madagascar started to greatly modernize its military with the assistance of China.
Madagascar also reinvigorated their dispute with France concerning the scattered islands in the Indian Ocean, frequently drawing attention to the dispute in the UN and media with the help of China.
The French government was greatly displeased about losing its influence in yet another one of its former colonies. Especially one so close to France's territories in the Indian Ocean.

Not all of Madagascar's population supported the new government, with many accusations of corruption and some opposition to the selling and leasing of land to Chinese companies.
Opposition dramatically increased after the new government's lacking response to a series of cyclones that hit the south of the island in the summer of 2024.
In January 2025 a small series of protests in the south escalated after a violent government crackdown. The government's response and other grievances led to a series of protests and riots in most major cities, including the capital over the next few months.
The French government also attempted to draw international attention to the situation on the island. And attempted to pass a number of UN sanctions against the Malagasy government, in response to the government's violent reaction to the protests.
The French sanctions and resolutions in the UN were all vetoed by China that together with the Malagasy government accused 'outside forces' of inciting the protests.

On the April 9th a group of opposition figures and military personnel covertly supported by France attempted a coup. They failed to fully take control over the entire capital, and a large part of the armed forces sided with the government.
Over the next days and weeks, oppositions and loyalist forces fiercely fought each other all over the island. The soldiers on both sides were quickly joined by hastily formed militia's and paramilitary groups.
The French government quickly started reinforcing their various islands in the Indian Ocean and started to prepare a powerful carrier group based around the carrier Charles de Gaulle to be deployed to the area. China sent a squadron of ships that were patrolling the gulf of Aden to the island. The French government also started to covertly supply weapons to the opposition forces.
On the 15th, the EU announced an arms embargo on Madagascar. The French went a step further, stating that they would inspect any ship going to Madagascar for weapons. The Chinese government has repeatedly protested the French actions, stating that the French were blockading humanitarian aid heading to the island and that the blockade violated Madagascar's sovereignty.
This led to multiple confrontations between French and Chinese warships operating off the coast of Madagascar.

On the April 24th the Chinese aircraft carrier Shandong was seen departing her home port with a group of escorting warships. And on the 25th, two cargo ships escorted by Chinese warships transited the strait of Malacca.
Two days later and for the first time in history, a Chinese carrier (the Shandong) and her escorts transited the strait of Malacca and entered the Indian Ocean. The Chinese government refused to comment when asked about the destination of the ships

After weeks of fighting, the government forces mostly succeeded in securing the north of the island, although some opposition soldiers remain in the countryside. The opposition gained has control over most of the south of the island.
The capital Antananarivo is currently the scene of most of the fighting as both sides attempt to capture the city. Three days ago, after a week of the front line being in the city being stationary, the opposition forces managed a small breakthrough, capturing the university and its surrounding area.
The opposition forces made use of a large amount of French supplied weapons during their assault.

During the conflict, videos have emerged on social media of government troops committing various atrocities and Madagascar air force aircraft (that were supplied by China before the war) indiscriminately bombing opposition held villages.
The French government has used these videos and other means to garner support for a possible military intervention on the island. The Chinese government has repeatedly stated that they support the Malagasy government in their war against foreign backed terrorists.
And that they will not tolerate any foreign intervention against the government of Madagascar.

Two days ago, the French frigate Floréal attempted to stop an unregistered cargo vessel heading to the port of Toamasina. This resulted in a confrontation between the French frigate and a Chinese destroyer escorting the vessel. During the incident, the Chinese ship attempted to ram the Floréal and locked their FCR on the French frigate's helicopter. The Chinese destroyer's actions allowed the cargo vessel to make it to port.
The cargo vessel was subsequently seen unloading possible military supplies on satellite imagery.
Yesterday, two aircraft of the Madagascar air force bombed a column of vehicles belonging to a France based NGO carrying humanitarian aid to an opposition controlled settlement. This resulted in the death of 7 French citizens, and 20 villagers.

After a long series of meetings that lasted throughout the night, the French government has decided to launch air strikes against the armed forces and infrastructure of the loyalists.
France hopes this will allow the French backed opposition to quickly win the civil war. It is also hoped that it will serve as a show of force that will stop the diminshing of France's influence in her former colonies.

-Changes V1.1:
Fixed Chinese RP relativity issue.
-Changes V1.2:
Fixed scoring issues
Cleared message log
Cleared Losses and expenditures
Set all aircraft that can to quick turnaround
Rounded of the player's aircraft ready times

[Schr75]

Hi Stanley

A quick observation.
The RP´s of the Chinese patrol zones around the two task forces are not set to relative, resulting in the TF´s outrunning their own air and ASW screen.

Søren

[Stanley_The_Rolmate]

Hi Stanley

A quick observation.
The RP´s of the Chinese patrol zones around the two task forces are not set to relative, resulting in the TF´s outrunning their own air and ASW screen.

Søren

Oops, thank you. I have attached the fixed version to the top message.

[giantsquid]

Your scenario sounds like a great idea. I like it. So far everything ok.

Thanks

Francesco

[giantsquid]

Hello Stanley,

I finished the scenario, destroying the land targets in Madagascar and the Chinese convoy, evading the mighty CVBG. I think you did a great work with the story and the detailed briefing.
The Rafale with its complete armament, the Barracuda SSN and the Scalp cruise missiles are the real game changers for the France side. I had very good results against the J-15 with the french fighter too with 10-1 losses.

I have seen some unusual behaviours in scoring, with some Chinese ship sunk generating a penalty when sunk. That's it.

Congratulations and thanks for your effort.

Francesco

[Gunner98]

Stanley

I really like the scenario setup. Intriguing and interesting, I'll take a run and give you some feedback.

A couple of very nitpicky housekeeping points, which I only offer as a way to make the scenario look more refined. They have little impact on gameplay but before saveing prior to release I have a routine of:
-Clearing the message log
-Clearing the Losses and expenditures log
-Reset all scores to zero (unless they are supposed to be different)
-Do a double check to make sure all units who can be on QTR are set that way
-If there are aircraft set to be ready at a certain time, tweak the time to round it off to a time (30min vice 28, 1hr vice 58 min).

OK I'm going in. Thanks for the scenario.

B

[Gunner98]

This is a really good scenario. I played the first 12 hours or so, conducting a nice little targeting exercise and enjoying myself - then all of a sudden the 21st Century arrived with the full force of modern tech. Wow, that is a wake up call, do not get complacent.

If I have a chance, I'll try and replay but this scenario is very nearly ready to go as is.

There are a few nice little surprises tucked into the jungles which make the player take notice, a few more of those would be good as well. Perhaps a pop-up air target, nothing fancy maybe a Cessna or something from a hidden airstrip just to catch the player napping.

Thanks for a great scenario, it taught me a few lessons about confronting modern Chinese stuff...

[Stanley_The_Rolmate]

Hi everyone, thanks for the replies.

I have fixed the scoring issues, rounded off the ready times of aircraft, set all aircraft that can be to QTR and cleared the loses and expenditures and the log. The updated version has been attached to the top message. I'll look if I can add some more surprises on the island.

[giantsquid]

Great work, thanks.
I really appreciated the story. Had the same feeling of Gunner98.
Ciao!

Francesco

[Mgellis]

I gave it a try...

Overall, very good. I didn't see anything I would change (except maybe reformat the briefing and increase the font size on both the background and the briefing sections to improve readability...be kind to us old grognards, please! )

As a couple of other people mentioned, I was making progress and I got a bit complacent, slowly killing off the Chinese ships and the targets in Madagascar, although it took a lot of guided bombs.

And then the Chinese task force launched its ballistic missiles and sank the French carrier. Ouch.

I will give it another try shortly and let you know if I come up with anything else to suggest, but so far, it's very good. Nice work!

[Midane]

Hello, I tried the scenario yesterday, and had great difficulty against the type 052DL destroyer Kaifeng in front of the harbor: the lack of anti-ship weapons in sufficient numbers for the Rafales, the fact that the Rafales on the carrier can only carry one Exocet missile, and the lack of jammer makes the assault very difficult.

I sent the carrier's entire fleet of Rafales, which were already armed with weapons that could be used against the destroyer at the same time, against it, and it wasn't enough!

The destroyer remained unscathed, and destroyed a few of my Rafales.

So it's very interesting. I need to devise a strategy for this.

I also noticed a bug: when I load a savegame, the Chinese side immediately becomes hostile to France, even if it wasn't the case at the time of the save.

As a result, every time I restart the scenario, I have to redo the entire initial patrol setup phase.

I've attached a savegame so you can see for yourself.

Also, is it really 100% certain that the French air force has no jammers? No Growler equivalent?

[ClaudeJ]

(...)
Also, is it really 100% certain that the French air force has no jammers? No Growler equivalent?

They do not have any Growler equivalent. Such a capability is planned for standard F5, in the 2030-2035 timeframe.
In the waiting, OECM is understood to be a capability obtained from a support package by a friendly and more comprehensively equipped ally. Wink, wink.
Over Libya, the Spectra suite combined with AASM, and cruise missiles, was used to perform DEAD missions.

Now, the ECM suite on the Rafale B is rumored to be OECM capabilities, to render Nuclear deterrence assets more credible. It's kind of secret and thus as much undocumented and unpublicized as can be.

In my limited understanding, that is.

PS: how did I miss that scenario?

[Midane]

They do not have any Growler equivalent. Such a capability is planned for standard F5, in the 2030-2035 timeframe.
In the waiting, OECM is understood to be a capability obtained from a support package by a friendly and more comprehensively equipped ally. Wink, wink.

Wow, a single jammer can make an assault against ships and SAMs, I don't know, 30 to 50% more effective, it seems like a no brainer to have a few on an aircraft carrier, it's crazy that the French navy doesn't have any!

I suppose that the French army's doctrine envisages rebels from African countries as its main enemies, against whom it will have to intervene without allies.

[Nikel]

I do not know whether this list of EW aircraft is comprehensive, but it is not very long, and the countries with them, past and present, is even shorter.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electroni ... e_aircraft



Another wiki article with a current inventory, 0 EW aircraft after 2 Transall C-160 Gabriel were retired in 2022, in the future, 2 Dassault Falcon Archange ordered and 1 planned, expected in 2028. So in 2025, the timeframe of the scenario, 0 EW aircraft.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_Ai ... pace_Force

[ClaudeJ]

(...) against whom it will have to intervene without allies.

That.

(...)Gabriel(...) Archange(...)

Both are ELINT aircraft, not (o)ECM. As far as we know from open sources.

Anyhow, I'm looking forward to a long gaming session tonight to enjoy the scenario.

[Nikel]

The Military balance also uses "EW" to describe the Gabriel, this is the version of 2009. I have no idea of the capabilities

https://www.google.com/books/edition/Th ... frontcover

[Stanley_The_Rolmate]

Hello, I tried the scenario yesterday, and had great difficulty against the type 052DL destroyer Kaifeng in front of the harbor: the lack of anti-ship weapons in sufficient numbers for the Rafales, the fact that the Rafales on the carrier can only carry one Exocet missile, and the lack of jammer makes the assault very difficult.

I sent the carrier's entire fleet of Rafales, which were already armed with weapons that could be used against the destroyer at the same time, against it, and it wasn't enough!

The destroyer remained unscathed, and destroyed a few of my Rafales.

So it's very interesting. I need to devise a strategy for this.

I also noticed a bug: when I load a savegame, the Chinese side immediately becomes hostile to France, even if it wasn't the case at the time of the save.

As a result, every time I restart the scenario, I have to redo the entire initial patrol setup phase.

I've attached a savegame so you can see for yourself.

Also, is it really 100% certain that the French air force has no jammers? No Growler equivalent?

Hi, thanks for bringing this to my attention.

Yes it's quite challenging to sink the Chinese ships as the French aircraft don't really have a modern ASM or ARM. You will probably be more succesful using AASM HAMMER's to oversaturate the SAM's than the AM39 Exocets, that's how I did it while testing the scenario. Don't forget most of the French surface combatants carry ASM's, their range isn't great but against 1 or 2 ships they can be succesful. You also have a modern SSN, but it's not really in position to strike the Chinese ships near Madagascar.

The French currently have no (publicly known) ESM aircraft. The Gabriels are just for ELINT, and last I read they were going to be retired pretty soon (before the time frame of the scenario).

I'll take a look at the bug with the Chinese going hostile. It's always been a problem with the scenario and it probably has to do with Madagascar being hostile to France. It also happens when you start the scen file, but I crudely 'fixed' it by creating a event that activates 1 second after the start of the scenario that corrects the Chinese posture.

[Midane]

You will probably be more succesful using AASM HAMMER's to oversaturate the SAM's than the AM39 Exocets, that's how I did it while testing the scenario.

I tried again, attacking the destroyer from multiple angles with 52 (!) guided bombs and missiles :



None of them went through. I lost 3 Rafales and a ship.

WTF. I must be doing something wrong . This ship is rated with a defense value of "10 Harpoons" or equivalent.

I'm attaching my save just in case you want to replicate the result

[Nikel]

Just tried 3 times and the 3 the Kaifeng sunk, though one of them slowly

The best result was 10 armor penetrations.

[Stanley_The_Rolmate]

I just tried it quickly, and multiple AASM's hit the ship as well. So I don't really know what's going on there