Does the Caucasus oils matter at all?

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Zovs
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Re: Does the Caucasus oils matter at all?

Post by Zovs »

Some errata he posted but not put in the guidebook yet.

1. Here's the main text change:

At the start of 1942, Baku and the North Caucasus region were producing 85% of the USSR’s oil. Germany, which was now caught in a protracted war against Britain and its allies, the USSR, and the USA, wanted to gain control of greater oil supplies in order to enhance its ability to fight the war. The Germans were also well aware that the Baku-North Caucasus region was producing the bulk of Soviet oil1. They expected capture of the region would collapse the Soviet economy and war effort. They also knew that large amounts of the regions’ oil was shipped north on the Volga River, together with Allied air arriving from Iran. They believed that interdicting the Volga in the Stalingrad region would hurt the Soviet war effort even before the oil resources of Baku-North Caucasus were captured. The German summer offensive accordingly targeted the Stalingrad region and the Soviet oilfields and refineries in the North Caucasus and Baku regions. The considerations were mostly correct, and had the Germans taken the oilfields, the Soviets would have greatly reduced fuel supplies for its tanks, other military vehicles, and aircraft. At a minimum, this would have reducing the Red Army’s ability to strike back against the Germans.

Some western historians have criticized the German plan as unachievable even if the Germans had captured the oilfields, due to lack of transport capacity to bring the oil back to refineries in Germany or Romania. The Germans were aware of this problem: the rail network would only be able to handle a small volumes of oil shipments. Similarly, shipping oil from the Black Sea up the Danube could not be done, because capacity of the Danube barges was already taken up carrying Romanian oil to Germany. The Germans would have to clear the Black Sea of the Soviet Navy and the central/eastern Mediterranean Sea of the Royal Navy to ship oil to Axis Mediterranean ports. This was a longer turn goal, but would be achieved if the Axis 1942 summer offensives in the USSR and North Africa succeeded. Further, most of the oil would actually stay in the east.

The plan of the Reich Ministry of Economics was that the Germans would capture and quickly repair the Baku-North Caucasus oil fields and refineries, resulting in a production of at least 600,000 tons of oil and oil products per month2. 300,000 tons would be for use by the Axis forces, and I believe some if not most this likely would remain in the east for the Axis military forces there. The other 300,000 tons would be used in the German-occupied areas of the USSR, for agriculture and industry there. Ukraine was the prime area for agriculture and industry in the German occupied zone, and there was an oil pipeline running from Baku-North Caucasus directly into Ukraine. The Germans knew this and planned to capture it. The real flaw in the plan, other than the huge mountain range between the Germans and Baku, was the assumption that the Germans could quickly capture and repair damage to Soviet oil infrastructure3. As we will see, the Soviets realized the intent of the German 1942 offensive and were determined to wreck their infrastructure to deny it to the Germans.
-------
1 In early 1942, the Germans surmised the region was supplying 90% of Soviet oil, with Hitler claiming 92% at one point. See Joel S. A. Hayward; “Hitler’s Quest for Oil: The Impact of Economic Considerations on Military Strategy, 1941–42”; Journal of Strategic Studies Vol. 18 No. 4; December 1995; https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio ... gy_1941-42.
2 Information from E.M. Malysheva (“Rossiyskaya Neft i Neftyaniki v Gody Velikoy Otechestvennoy Voyny” [“Russian Oil and Oil-Workers in the Years of the Great Patriotic War”); 2008; http://economicarggu.ru/2008_4/10.shtml (in Russian).
3 The Germans did plan for damage. They had almost 100 oil drilling rigs available from the 1939–1941 period of German-Soviet economic cooperation before the German invasion. The Soviets had ordered these from Germany, but the Germans managed to delay sending them to the USSR. Together with new production, the Germans planned to send 220 drilling rigs from Germany to the captured Soviet oilfields in 1942. On 19 July 1942, with the summer offensive so far going very well, the Germans anticipated success of the oil plan and ordered another 70 rigs for 1943 and 220 for 1944. See Robert Goralski and Russell W. Freeburg; Oil and War; 2021;
https://www.usmcu.edu/Portals/218/Oil&War_WebUPDATE.pdf.
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Re: Does the Caucasus oils matter at all?

Post by Wiedrock »

Wiedrock wrote: Tue Nov 21, 2023 9:08 pm Good historic examples I'd refer to are Kursk North
Zitadelle South
CAMPAIGN 305 - KURSK 1943 - The Southern Front, p.30, Osprey Publishing wrote: Instead, he [Hitler] delayed the operation further, so that
more Tigers and the much awaited Panthers could join von Manstein’s command.
Yet logistic issues had greater bearing on the timing of Zitadelle than the
number of Tiger tanks available. The OKH directed Heeresgruppe Süd to
stockpile enough fuel, ammunition and other supplies to sustain an 18-day
offensive, but quartermasters failed to achieve even this modest level by 4
July. Just prior to Zitadelle, von Manstein’s mechanized forces had sufficient
fuel and ammunition for a week of high-intensity combat. Once this slim
reserve was spent, von Manstein’s forces would have to reduce expenditures.
Fliegerkorps VIII was equally hamstrung, with enough fuel for about 7–10
days of high operational tempo. Consequently, Zitadelle was going to be
conducted on a logistical shoestring.
Zitadelle North
CAMPAIGN 272 - KURSK 1943 - The Northern Front, p.27, Osprey Publishing wrote:Combat logistics
Despite the relative lull between April and June 1943, AOK 9’s quartermasters
were unable to meet the logistical requirements specified for Operation
Zitadelle in Operations Orders No. 5 and No. 6. A combination of Soviet air
raids, Soviet partisan activity and the daily requirements of even ordinary
combat activity frustrated the German intent to build up a logistical surplus
for Zitadelle. Indeed, not only did AOK 9’s supply dumps have only 20 percent
of the required fuel and 40 per-cent of the required ammunition by
4 July, but they actually held smaller quantities of each than they had held
on 12 April. Like much of the Wehrmacht, AOK 9 was living a hand-tomouth
existence and was using more resources even on defence than
Germany could provide. Most divisions started Zitadelle with two or three
basic loads of ammunition and five Verbrauchssatz (the load of fuel required
to move all vehicles in a unit 100km), of which 25 per-cent would be
consumed on the first day of the offensive. The situation with personnel
replacements was no better, with only 7,000 inadequately trained troops on
hand in the Feld-Ersatz batallions to replace combat losses. Luftflotte 6’s fuel
situation was particularly difficult since there was no lull in air operations
and the consumption of aviation fuel exceeded deliveries by a wide margin.
Instead of possessing the logistical resources to sustain an 18-day operation
as envisioned by the Zitadelle planners, AOK 9 and Luftflotte 6 only had the
resources to conduct high-intensity offensive operations for about seven
days. This inherent German logistical weakness is often ignored, but it played
a major role in constricting AOK 9’s role in Zitadelle as well as the subsequent
defence of the Orel salient.
As can be seen it's not easy to store stuff for major operations, especially fuel. While in game you start almost every turn with 100%+ of needs (when static) and also Depots are filling up (Super Depot Magic).
And after spending all MPs (attacks/movement combined) you still have more after (1 week) of combat+movement than what they had after just one day of fighting.
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Re: Does the Caucasus oils matter at all?

Post by Nazcatraz »

Wiedrock wrote: Tue Nov 21, 2023 9:08 pm
Sammy5IsAlive wrote: Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:27 pm If you have beaten up the Soviet army so much that you can get to Maikop or even Baku and hold it for a long period of time then they will have already been beaten by virtue of that damage that you've inflicted on them, not by them not having the oil or you having it.

If you aren't able to defeat the Soviet army enough to be able to do this then you will likely follow the historic pattern of retreat back to Germany along your supply lines at the kind of pace where on the level the game works at fuel is not an issue.

This question comes up from time to time and it always seems a bit of a moot point to me?
That's a fair point!

But making Fuel matter isn't only a thing about taking Baku or not. It's also about preparing for planned Offensives by using less Fuel to have it in stores at the onset of an operation (Ground and Air consumption). This "preparation" is only reflected by freight stored in Depots so far, adding Fuel to it would force you to seize operations in other areas to enable the push in targeted sectors.
Example:
If you know an offensive needs about 30k Fuel a turn and you only add about 15k to the Pool each turn, you know you need to wait/save Fuel for 1 turn before starting an "1-week"-offensive (or you will run dry or only can do the offensive at 50% pace). If you know you'll need at least 5 Weeks for your Offensive you'd need to save Fuel for 5x(30k/15k)/(30k/15k)=5turns (Just as an example...)
Currently you just build a Super Depot and after 2-3 turns you got the freight which can be converted into Fuel as needed without Fuel being in any way a limiting factor.

Good historic examples I'd refer to are Kursk North and Bulge where Operations were initiated without sufficient Fuel stored before.
This is what I want in WITE3. Would creates a whole another dimension in gameplay. But that would give a whole lot of disadvantages to the Axis. So while it’s super historical, it’s gonna affect gameplay balance a lot, especially for the multiplayer folks. So a good option is to have it toggleable to On or Off as a gameplay mechanic. If WITE3 would ever comes out. I’m day dreaming.
Last edited by Nazcatraz on Wed Nov 22, 2023 7:33 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Does the Caucasus oils matter at all?

Post by Wiedrock »

Nazcatraz wrote: Wed Nov 22, 2023 12:56 am This is what I want in WITE3. Would makes a whole another dimension in gameplay. But that would gives a whole lot of disadvantages as to the Axis. So while it’s super historical, it’s gonna affect gameplay balance a lot, especially for the multiplayer folks. So a good option is to have it toggleable to On or Off as a gameplay mechanic. If WITE3 would ever comes out. I’m day dreaming.
Have Axis Struggle with Fuel and Soviets Struggle with Ammo (as they already (somehow) do).
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Re: Does the Caucasus oils matter at all?

Post by DarkHorse2 »

No, resources don't matter, at least for the 1st couple of years.

They give Germany a huge stockpile of resources to begin with. (I think they do the same for the SU).

Fuel: 3.9 million
Supply: 4.3 million
Resources: 5 million
WiTE2_Ger_StartingResources.JPG
WiTE2_Ger_StartingResources.JPG (20.34 KiB) Viewed 1296 times

If you played enough turns and kept an eye on the stockpiles, you will see that Germany does not produce enough supplies to support its current forces. As a result, it has to draw on these stockpiles just to support current troops & production needs.

If Germany did not start off with such of a huge stockpile of these resources, the entire production system would collapse for them.

I highly suspect they could never get it balanced just right and conceded to the fact and just gave each side a huge starting stockpile of resources.

After spending some time clearing resource values in the editor, it appears that there are hardcoded resource minimum values that cannot be cleared and do not exist at any specific location as follows:

Fuel: 3 million
Supply: 1.5 million
Resources: 5 million

Invoking the editor "CLEAR PRODUCTION POOLS" function does not clear these values either. :roll:
WiTE2_Ger_StartingResources2.JPG
WiTE2_Ger_StartingResources2.JPG (148.33 KiB) Viewed 1220 times
Cannot find them in the exported CSV data either....

The fact that WiTE2 seems to have hard-coded minimum resource values that cannot be cleared and do not exist in any exported / imported CSV file should be a clue that something peculiar is going on....

EDIT

... something is not right.... because I was able to finally find them in a previous version of the game. I think these "hidden" stockpiles exist in an undocumented GROUND ELEMENT... :oops:
WiTE2_Ger_StartingResources_cleared.JPG
WiTE2_Ger_StartingResources_cleared.JPG (69.68 KiB) Viewed 1214 times
Yes... here they are...
Fuel Dumps and Supply Dumps have to be cleared.

This is where those values are ultimately burried. :shock:

WiTE2_SupplyDump.JPG
WiTE2_SupplyDump.JPG (147.38 KiB) Viewed 1208 times
Last edited by DarkHorse2 on Thu Nov 30, 2023 3:22 pm, edited 6 times in total.
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Gray Lensman_MatrixForum
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Re: Does the Caucasus oils matter at all?

Post by Gray Lensman_MatrixForum »

Here's an interesting link in regards to German oil production/consumption 1939-1944. https://panzerworld.com/german-fuel-sta ... onsumption
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Re: Does the Caucasus oils matter at all?

Post by DarkHorse2 »

After modifying a test scenario where I cleared virtually all of the Axis starting Fuel, Oil, Res & Supplies, this is the results on T5, given the following.

No Axis flew any mission.
No Axis conducted any combat.
No Axis moved.
(they just sat at the border and stared at the Soviets the entire time).
...
After 5 turns, no supplies are being delivered to any Axis unit, despite them suffering low supply levels.

There is actually a stockpile of supplies forming. But only factories are receiving any....

Unit level supply need appears to be 45k.

The German accumulated supply from previous turn was 7k - not enough to supply a static army garrisoned in Poland - let alone a fully mobile army conducting offensive operations deep in the Soviet Union.

Germany is unable to meet both its industrial production needs and the needs of a static, immobile 1941 Wehrmacht & Luftwaffe with the current WiTE2 production model.

Attachments
WiTE2_NoStartingResources_T5_CR.JPG
WiTE2_NoStartingResources_T5_CR.JPG (171.21 KiB) Viewed 1189 times
WiTE2_NoStartingResources_T5_UnitSuppliesRec.JPG
WiTE2_NoStartingResources_T5_UnitSuppliesRec.JPG (58.18 KiB) Viewed 1189 times
WiTE2_NoStartingResources_T5_FactoryReport.JPG
WiTE2_NoStartingResources_T5_FactoryReport.JPG (29.31 KiB) Viewed 1189 times
WiTE2_NoStartingResources_T5_Production.JPG
WiTE2_NoStartingResources_T5_Production.JPG (78.72 KiB) Viewed 1189 times
Last edited by DarkHorse2 on Thu Nov 30, 2023 6:49 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Does the Caucasus oils matter at all?

Post by DarkHorse2 »

was limited to only 4 images in previous post.... here is the supply graph for 1st five turns...
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WiTE2_NoStartingResources_T5_SupplyGraph.JPG
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Re: Does the Caucasus oils matter at all?

Post by Gray Lensman_MatrixForum »

This thread has been somewhat enlightening as to the "completion" of it's true representation of the Eastern Front. The mechanics are decent... They could be refined a little to forestall the "grinding" tactics, but this glossing over of a crucial element of the Russian-German conflict leaves a lot to be desired. They're also missing a way of portraying true "maskirovka" or strategic surprise which the Soviets were so good at time and time again. I waited a year to purchase it on a 30% off sale since I already had WITE1, I suppose I could just as easily wait another year or so for it to be "updated" some more. Maybe the designers will shift their focus off away from OOB tweaks and actually work on simulating the real Eastern Front grand strategy and tactics. For now, I'll have to relegate this to Shelfware to be revisited later.
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Re: Does the Caucasus oils matter at all?

Post by Wild »

While I would like the game to be as historical as possible, I certainly would not shelve it because of this.
It's an incredibly enjoyable and complex game that I feel portrays the War in the East at the operational level quite well. It's not perfect but it's the best I've seen.

If you wait until everything is perfect you will never have an opportunity to play the game. Because it will never be perfect.

But that's just my 2 cents. Your mileage may vary.
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Re: Does the Caucasus oils matter at all?

Post by Gray Lensman_MatrixForum »

Wild wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2023 11:48 pm While I would like the game to be as historical as possible, I certainly would not shelve it because of this.
It's an incredibly enjoyable and complex game that I feel portrays the War in the East at the operational level quite well. It's not perfect but it's the best I've seen.

If you wait until everything is perfect you will never have an opportunity to play the game. Because it will never be perfect.

But that's just my 2 cents. Your mileage may vary.
Actually, if you read a few books on the subject... (Currently, I'm reading John Erickson's "The Road to Berlin"), but I have several others..., other than the first 6 months or so of this game/simulation, it bears little real operational level resemblance to how the actual conflict played out. It looks "pretty" and is impressively detailed, lending credence to your statement "It's not perfect but it's the best I've seen", but the actual strategic simulation situation is sadly lacking making it boring. It will definitely help to remedy the "grinding" technique, but that' only part of the issue. Joel Billings said it himself recently, when he claimed that the game really shined in the shorter scenarios. This, in a way, was admitting that they had not really concentrated on making the game system work correctly over for the full duration of the conflict. Let's face it, most players might play a short scenario a time or two, but what they really want is to jump into is an accurate full 4 year Campaign, with all the historical surprise/counter surprise moves of the real conflict. otherwise they might as well jump into the fictionalized "Hearts of Iron" designs.
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Re: Does the Caucasus oils matter at all?

Post by Wild »

My bookcase is full of books I've read on the subject. I've also played all the Hearts of Iron series. This game is light years beyond them.

It's more of an operational game than strategic level.

You may disagree but I am quite comfortable standing by my comments.
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Re: Does the Caucasus oils matter at all?

Post by Zovs »

WITE2 is not a strategic game, it’s an operational level game.
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Re: Does the Caucasus oils matter at all?

Post by Gray Lensman_MatrixForum »

Zovs wrote: Fri Dec 01, 2023 2:01 am WITE2 is not a strategic game, it’s an operational level game.
Of course it is and so is Grigsby's War in the West, but War in the West wouldn't be complete without the STRATEGIC bombing component. The same with War in the East, it's not really complete without the real possibility of strategic disruption of Soviet fuel sources because that's what shaped the Operational level decisions of the Ostheer in the second year, and as Wiedrock pointed out:
... But making Fuel matter isn't only a thing about taking Baku or not. It's also about preparing for planned Offensives by using less Fuel to have it in stores at the onset of an operation (Ground and Air consumption). This "preparation" is only reflected by freight stored in Depots so far, adding Fuel to it would force you to cease operations in other areas to enable the push in targeted sectors.
Example:
If you know an offensive needs about 30k Fuel a turn and you only add about 15k to the Pool each turn, you know you need to wait/save Fuel for 1 turn before starting an "1-week"-offensive (or you will run dry or only can do the offensive at 50% pace). If you know you'll need at least 5 Weeks for your Offensive you'd need to save Fuel for 5x(30k/15k)/(30k/15k)=5turns (Just as an example...)
Currently you just build a Super Depot and after 2-3 turns you got the freight which can be converted into Fuel as needed without Fuel being in any way a limiting factor.

Good historic examples I'd refer to are Kursk North and Bulge where Operations were initiated without sufficient Fuel stored before.
These types of fuel constrictions also had the potential of affecting the Soviet production centers in the Urals had they been significantly disrupted... something that definitely would have had an operational impact on the quantity and quality of the Soviet on map units.
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Re: Does the Caucasus oils matter at all?

Post by DarkHorse2 »

Gray Lensman_MatrixForum wrote: Fri Dec 01, 2023 5:41 am Currently you just build a Super Depot and after 2-3 turns you got the freight which can be converted into Fuel as needed without Fuel being in any way a limiting factor.
That is a fallacy. The game makes it appear that way, but it is not truly how it works.

If the player doesn't have the supplies / fuel in their production pools, that freight will sit there, indefinately, and won't be converted to anything.

Why do you think all these German units are starving when right next to them is a depot with ample freight?

WiTE2_NoStartingResources_T5_Freight.JPG
WiTE2_NoStartingResources_T5_Freight.JPG (65.83 KiB) Viewed 1009 times
WiTE2_NoStartingResources_T5_CR.JPG
WiTE2_NoStartingResources_T5_CR.JPG (164.72 KiB) Viewed 1009 times
WiTE2_NoStartingResources_T5_Freight_Depot.JPG
WiTE2_NoStartingResources_T5_Freight_Depot.JPG (60.73 KiB) Viewed 1009 times
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Re: Does the Caucasus oils matter at all?

Post by Wiedrock »

DarkHorse2 wrote: Fri Dec 01, 2023 9:45 am
Gray Lensman_MatrixForum wrote: Fri Dec 01, 2023 5:41 am Currently you just build a Super Depot and after 2-3 turns you got the freight which can be converted into Fuel as needed without Fuel being in any way a limiting factor.
That is a fallacy. The game makes it appear that way, but it is not truly how it works.

If the player doesn't have the supplies / fuel in their production pools, that freight will sit there, indefinately, and won't be converted to anything.

Why do you think all these German units are starving when right next to them is a depot with ample freight?

WiTE2_NoStartingResources_T5_Freight.JPG
WiTE2_NoStartingResources_T5_CR.JPG
WiTE2_NoStartingResources_T5_Freight_Depot.JPG
It is how it currently works. You just need to differentiate what currently "is", what "you want it to be" and "what you mod it to be".
And this being, without Losing Romania and parts of Germany you'll have plenty of Fuel.
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Re: Does the Caucasus oils matter at all?

Post by DarkHorse2 »

If you are so certain, prove it.

Clear your production pools and show how the game creates fuel from freight. Should be easy enough.

Better yet, remove all of your fuel producing factories as well. According to you, those are not needed if you can create fuel from air.
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Re: Does the Caucasus oils matter at all?

Post by Wiedrock »

DarkHorse2 wrote: Fri Dec 01, 2023 1:20 pm If you are so certain, prove it.

Clear your production pools and show how the game creates fuel from freight. Should be easy enough.

Better yet, remove all of your fuel producing factories as well. According to you, those are not needed if you can create fuel from air.
Seems you are posting in the wrong Thread or talking to someone I can not see/read. :roll:
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Re: Does the Caucasus oils matter at all?

Post by AlbertN »

I believe Dark Horse mismatched author of posts, since DarkHorde and Wirdrock are supporting the same thesis, while a third person is suggesting Freight converts into say, Fuel, out of thin air without Fuel being in the relevant Pool.

While WITE2 may be operational, the moment strategic aspects such as production are included it goes well past that. And many operational decision were also dictated by 'we must secure / deny oil sources' or 'let's keep to the wrong side of a river to keep longer a mining facility'.
In the macro-scale the player should feel that to gain / lose resource and oil assets should impact; and the player should play accordingly to the economical needs as well.
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Re: Does the Caucasus oils matter at all?

Post by DarkHorse2 »

This was a quick test.

Basically, edit GC41, clear the starting fuel of the Panzer and Motorized Divisions.
Run the turn.
Take a snapshot of the T2 fuel stockpile.
Do the same for the default GC41.
Compare....
If freight is truly providing "free" fuel, there should be no difference in the fuel stockpiles.

I wasn't able to magically create fuel from freight. It ultimately drew upon the fuel stockpiles at the moment of distribution to the unit. And this was using super-depots. (nothing magic about them either....)

Probably a contributing factor to the confusion is that the starting fuel stockpiles are so large, it is easy to miss what is going on.
Attachments
T2 - Production Compare
T2 - Production Compare
WiTE2_T2_ProductionCompare.jpg (310.61 KiB) Viewed 879 times
T2 - Fuel Graph Compare
T2 - Fuel Graph Compare
WiTE2_T2_FuelGraph_Compare.jpg (85.99 KiB) Viewed 879 times
T2 - Fuel Received
T2 - Fuel Received
WiTE2_PzNoFuel_T2_CR_PanzerDivs.JPG (189.25 KiB) Viewed 879 times
T1 - Starting Fuel Removed
T1 - Starting Fuel Removed
WiTE2_PzNoFuel_T1_CR_PanzerDivs.JPG (138.09 KiB) Viewed 879 times
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