Dutch AVP Arend: Scenario 1 Exploits

[WEXF]

22Jul saw a change in the direction for the defenses at Geraldton. A decision had been made to continue the building of the airfield to at L6 but before that would be done some additional work would concentrate on increasing the fortifications of the base to at least level 3. Geraldton was in clear terrain and it was felt that level 2 forts would not be adequate to hinder an enemy invasion. Progress in a single day saw the forts at 9% of the way toward L3, indicating that it would take a little less than 2 weeks to get to level 3. Command was considering transferring some additional engineers to Geraldton but no specific unit had yet been identified.
On Arend PO Caruthers low naval skill advanced from 51>53.

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At the airfield there were 9 additional medium bombers from 1-VIGII squadron. These 139WH-3 aircraft could not compare to the B-25s but they would be a very solid plus to the defenses of the region.

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[BBfanboy]

Are you aware that building the forts higher will make building the next level of AF or Port slower and more costly in supplies? Basically, the idea is that when you build higher level facilities, the forts must be improved and extended to cover the larger base. It works the other way too, of course. Building the facilities first will make building the forts more costly in supplies and time. It looks like you have asked yourself the key question - "Which is more important if the Japanese come calling?" To resist them, the answer is the 'forts'. And considering the possible loss of the base you would not want to give the Japanese better facilities so on that thought the answer is 'build forts'. Besides, you don't yet have enough air squadrons of the right type (range, payload) to use Geraldton to attack any bases further north, so no need for a larger AF yet.

[WEXF]

Are you aware that building the forts higher will make building the next level of AF or Port slower and more costly in supplies? Basically, the idea is that when you build higher level facilities, the forts must be improved and extended to cover the larger base. It works the other way too, of course. Building the facilities first will make building the forts more costly in supplies and time. It looks like you have asked yourself the key question - "Which is more important if the Japanese come calling?" To resist them, the answer is the 'forts'. And considering the possible loss of the base you would not want to give the Japanese better facilities so on that thought the answer is 'build forts'. Besides, you don't yet have enough air squadrons of the right type (range, payload) to use Geraldton to attack any bases further north, so no need for a larger AF yet.

Your comment exactly describes my thinking at this point in the war. With the increased activity on the north coast and the recent fall of Palembang the possible attack on Geraldton is the priority over the expansion of the AF. Needing the larger AF is related to the use of HB that currently would not be able to operate from Geraldton. I have 3 B-17E squadrons in Perth and LB-30 Liberators at other bases in Australia. If Geraldton was AF5 they could cover a number of the bases on the north coast that they cannot cover from Perth.

[BBfanboy]

I also feel that Geraldton is too exposed to Japanese invasion even if it was level 5 with HB operating from it. One naval bombardment could close it down and trap all the bombers. Still, if Japan ignores Western Australia for another six months you will have a good jumping off point for your counterattacks. I will be watching to see how it develops.

PS - Even if I think the AAR writer knows the info, I often comment with info that is not well explained in the manual so that new players can learn from reading AARs. Such comments are not an assessment of the state of play of the AAR writer,

[WEXF]

I also feel that Geraldton is too exposed to Japanese invasion even if it was level 5 with HB operating from it. One naval bombardment could close it down and trap all the bombers. Still, if Japan ignores Western Australia for another six months you will have a good jumping off point for your counterattacks. I will be watching to see how it develops.

I agree with you that Geraldton is pretty exposed to attack. However, I have added numerous defensive assets (mines, coastal artillery, etc.) that will make an attack very costly. Some of the units now at Geraldton are superior to any Japanese unit that may be in an invasion. I expect that if the Japanese commander knew the full strength at Geraldton he would look elsewhere for a place to attack. At least I hope so! Time will tell.
Glad to have you along for the ride

[WEXF]

23Jul saw the forts at Geraldton 17%>L3. On Arend, PO Caruthers saw his low naval skill go from 53>54.

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I noticed something interesting related to the arrival and scheduling of reinforcements for the Provisional GMC Group. When the unit originally arrived at Geraldton it had 9 halftracks of the 48 that were in its TOE. The unit was set to receive reinforcements and on 23Jul it showed 10 halftracks. It also showed "replacements are likely delayed 1 day". That surprised me as I usually notice a 3 day delay in a unit adding additional reinforcements.

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Is there a way to know if a unit will receive reinforcements faster than 3 day intervals? Or is it "die roll" related? I remember having seen a comment that read:
"Chosen LCU is in base with +20K supply and at REST can try to take replacements each turn".
In the case here GMC Group was "at rest" but there were not 20,000 supplies at Geraldton.
Always looking to better understand how our game works.

[WEXF]

24Jul saw the forts at Geraldton 25%>L3. On Arend, PO Caruthers saw his low naval skill go from 54>55 and WO Hazzard's score also improved from 30>32. Everything else seemed normal but there was "something in the air" that had everyone on edge.

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[WEXF]

Geraldton was not a calm base on 25Jul. Some things seemed normal. The forts had improved and were now 34%>L3. On Arend PO Caruthers improved his low naval skill from 55>56.

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What made everyone very nervous were two items reported at a special intel briefing. The first was the first high level recon information on enemy activity at Koepang, just north of the Australian coast. The detection level of 9/11, provided by some special recon aircraft recently located to the area, showed the presence of 46 fighters, 46 bombers and 63 auxiliary aircraft, likely a mix of recon, float and patrol planes.

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However, the second report was the most alarming. It showed that the base at Geraldton had an enemy detection level of 1, where there had been none in the recent past. Analysis of how that could be showed that it was likely that an enemy sub carrying a Glen float plane was, once again, likely nearby and that a recon flight had been flown over Geraldton on 24Jul. There seemed no other explanation for how a detection level of 1 could currently be recorded at Geraldton.

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[BBfanboy]

In addition to the "try every day at 20K" there is a chance at replacements whenever the base receives its weekly supplies. Larger bases can receive supplies several times a week, small bases - only once a week. At 7 levels of development Geraldton is likely eligible two or three times a week.

The other parameter is availability of devices in the pool. That Prov GMC vehicle is not produced beyond the initial allocation to that unit, so it may be very slow arriving in the pools. Still, the base screen estimate of one day to take replacements suggests there is at least one in the pool. Did you check on the next turn if any arrived?

[WEXF]

BBfanboy said:
"The other parameter is availability of devices in the pool. That Prov GMC vehicle is not produced beyond the initial allocation to that unit, so it may be very slow arriving in the pools. Still, the base screen estimate of one day to take replacements suggests there is at least one in the pool. Did you check on the next turn if any arrived?"

When Prov. GMC Grp. arrived at Geraldton on 21Jul, it was reported that there were 17 75mm GMC HT in the pool. The 25 July report shows that there are still 17 in the pool. However, the unit at Geraldton now has 12 half tracks instead of the 9 it started with. 1 was added on 23Jul and the other 2 on 24Jul.

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The pool screen also shows that there are 50 M7 Priest SP Arty in the pool, which is the upgrade for the GMC HT.

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[BBfanboy]

IIRC, the Provisional GMC was the forerunner to the halftrack - a new design being tested 'in the field' when war started. I think it is a different device in the pools from the halftracks shown. I'll check later if I have time.

[WEXF]

IIRC, the Provisional GMC was the forerunner to the halftrack - a new design being tested 'in the field' when war started. I think it is a different device in the pools from the halftracks shown. I'll check later if I have time.

I checked the editor and the unit in Geraldton #6760 has device #932 GMC Halftrack. That device has no upgrade listed in the editor. There are 3 other GMC halftracks listed in the editor: Device numbers 469, 690 and 1174. All of them have upgrades with 1174 having the upgrade of the Priest.
So the pool number showing 17 is not the device that can be added to the unit at Geraldton. Perhaps the unit in Geraldton will only be able to add one more halftrack immediately (the other entry in the pool) until there are others available. The build rate is just 2/month until 42/12. Time will tell.
Thanks for your comment. There is always more depth to this game than one expects.

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[BBfanboy]

The game handles replacements differently from original production. A unit that has lost devices in battle can get replacements even if production is shown as ended. As I was inferring, Prov. GMC was intended to end production and if (IRL) that unit had not been destroyed in the Philippines it would have been upgraded, so the game does not have an upgrade shown. But it does do replacements after production. Here is Alfred's explanation from some time ago:

https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/view ... 5#p3554935

[WEXF]

The game handles replacements differently from original production. A unit that has lost devices in battle can get replacements even if production is shown as ended. As I was inferring, Prov. GMC was intended to end production and if (IRL) that unit had not been destroyed in the Philippines it would have been upgraded, so the game does not have an upgrade shown. But it does do replacements after production. Here is Alfred's explanation from some time ago:

https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/view ... 5#p3554935

Thanks for the link to Alfred's comments. It all makes sense to me (I think). Since the editor has device 932 in production until the end of 42, I expect there will be 2/month added to the pool for the months of August thru December. In those 5 months there should be 10 more devices available to add to the unit in Geraldton. That will still not be enough to get the unit to its full TOE that has 48 halftracks. Your comment tells me that there will still be more available after the end of 42.

[WEXF]

The activity level at Geraldton continued to increase and a special briefing was held to inform all the officers of the plans that were in place to detect and hopefully destroy any enemy submarine in the area. Detailed charts were provided showing the naval patrol patterns and air search arcs covering the west coast of Australia.

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At the end of the briefing the chief intelligence officer said that after detailed examination of the recent recon of Koepang the consensus of opinion was that the enemy was preparing for an airborne assault on the north coast of Australia, most likely concentrating on Broome. The fact that 63 auxiliary aircraft were detected at Koepang was thought to confirm that a large number of transports were at the base. The enemy had previously used large numbers of Topsy transports for a variety of missions and there were reports that over 100 Topsys had already been lost. The range of Topsys was 11 putting Derby, Wyndam and Broome within range for a para drop. Other transports and patrol planes were available to the enemy for longer range drops but it was felt that the most likely target would be Broome as continuous enemy recon had been detected at that base.

[WEXF]

26Jul found the fort at Geraldton 42%>L3. On Arend PO Caruthers saw his low naval skill improve from 56>57.

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Everyone at Geraldton was both relieved that no enemy submarine activity had been spotted in the region. There was a bit of concern that somehow the enemy had been able to avoid the widest search efforts ever put together by Command.
Following up on part of the recent thread about 75mm GMC Halftracks in unit 6760 Provisional GMC Group, one additional halftrack (device 932) was added today. There had been just one in the pool and the pool is now empty, as the lack of a "+" sign in the unit screen shows. There are still the 17 halftrack device 1174, the one that upgrades to the Priest, in the pool.

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Interestingly, the unit, once again, shows only an expected delay of 1 day for replacements, not 3 days. With nothing in the pool and no more production until August, it will be interesting to see what happens. TOE for the unit is 48 halftracks.
A special intel meeting was scheduled for later that would go over new information on the situation along the north coast.

[WEXF]

The special intel briefing started with the latest data on Koepang. It showed the presence of 44 fighters, 54 bombers and 73 auxiliary aircraft. The Detection on Koepang had dropped slightly and the current weather in the area was heavy rain but it seemed clear that the number of aircraft at the L5 airfield at Koepang ranged somewhere between the 170 recorded today and the 145 recorded yesterday. The unusually high number of auxiliary planes continued to stand out.

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For the last 2 days 2 ships were detected in the port-an AMc and an AO. There was also a TF of 2 patrol boats and another unidentified vessel which seemed to be ASW assets. The AO was clearly the most interesting of the group.

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Ground units at Koepang currently show 7 units, 22940 troops, 154 guns and 79 AFV slightly higher than yesterday but pretty close.

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Also presented was the history of Koepang. The enemy had taken Koepang on 28Mar with the following units:
48 Infantry Division, 40 Field AA BN, 2 Ind Hvy Art BN, 2 Mtr Bn and 37 Construction BN. Other troops in the area were the 11th Air Fleet HQa at Manado (3Mar), 1st Raiding Regiment and Yokusuka 3rd SNLF, 2 airborne units at Ambon on 6Apr.
The intel officer said that after extensive review it was felt that the key to what was going on at Koepang was the likelihood that the 11th Air Fleet HQ was now at Keopang. Its 144 aviation support and its command radius of 5 were key.

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The briefing took a short break to give everyone time to digest the data.

[WEXF]

The intel briefing picked up with a summary of the 171 aircraft at Koepang based in the latest data. Since the L5 airfield could support 250 engines and there were 44 fighters and 54 bombers (all thought to be twin engine), that would account for 152 engines leaving 98 for the auxiliaries. Some were sure to be single engine recon planes but most were thought to be twin engine transports.
The L5 airfield also can only support 5 groups without being considered "over stacked". It appears that there are at least 2 groups of fighters, 2 groups of bombers and 3-5 groups of auxiliaries. More than the airfield could operate efficiently without having groups set for training or resting. In addition there is a need for at least 171 aviation support to fully service the aircraft.
The presence of the 11th Air Fleet HQa (or a similar HQa) provides 144 aviation support and using its Command Radius of 5, can add to the number of groups that can be handled by the airfield. To reach the aviation support required it is assumed that an additional engineering unit providing 24-48 AS has been located at Koepang.
The additional land assets (5 units) thought to be at Koepang are the two paratroop units, the 48th Division and the mortar and AA units that were part of the force that took Koepang. Taken all together the number of troops in these 7 units comes fairly close to the latest intel of 23000Troops, 154 guns and 79 AFV.
Needless to say-FOW has been ignored in all the above).

[WEXF]

27Jul was a bit chaotic at Geraldton. Building of L3 forts was now 50% complete and there was clearly some shifting of aircraft going on. The transports were gone and additional bombers had arrived. On Arend both WO Hazard and PO Caruthers saw their low naval skill rating go from 32>33 and 57>58 respectively.

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The level of enemy submarine activity had once again increased. The detection level at Geraldton was again showing as "1" suggesting the presence of a Glen carrying submarine. Command had reviewed all available intel and there was a potential for enemy recon missions to be flown over Geraldton. The closest enemy base to Geraldton was Waingapoe (63-113), 28 hexes away. There was no airfield at that small base but if some of the new enemy patrol planes were operating from there they could reach Geraldton. The H6K5 Mavis and the H8K1 Emily would have to fly at extended range but they could reach Geraldton.

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The situation was more complicated as there was a reported attack by an enemy submarine (I-156) on DD Decoy, near Carnarvon.

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Command was really troubled as I-156 was a Type KD3A/B Class sub that could carry mines but not a float plane. One possibility was that the wrong identification had been made. On the other hand might this mean that there was more than one sub in the area?
An afternoon intel meeting was on the agenda for updating what was known about enemy activity on the northern coast.

[BBfanboy]

That sub is not on a major shipping lane so chances are it is headed south to Perth or thereabouts. It could also be sent to sniff out your defences. Just checking the DL on the sub every turn will tell him something about your Naval Search efforts. Air attacks on the sub could indicate ASW Patrols as well.

And he will be wondering about a DD TF in that area. He might think you have reinforcement convoys going to Carnarvon or Exmouth.