GW Counterfactual Take 3.

[rkr1958]

Turn 23. May/June 1943. Axis #8.

Turn continues (from allied #7) on a 4. Axis all take a land. 20% turn ends this impulse.

08-AX-Actions.png (27.86 KiB) Viewed 490 times

[Falken]

Thanks for continuing your AARs. Still find them fascinating. BTW, what version of the spreadsheet are you at? some of your reporting looks really good. Just wished we could get a new update on the patch. Been at 5.00.00.10 for a while now.

[rkr1958]

Thanks for continuing your AARs. Still find them fascinating. BTW, what version of the spreadsheet are you at? some of your reporting looks really good. Just wished we could get a new update on the patch. Been at 5.00.00.10 for a while now.

Falken, thanks for the kind words and for following.

I'm up to rev11 on the AAR spreadsheet.

For the testers we're up to version 7.0.0.1, but definitely not ready for "prime time" or even a public beta release in my most humble opinion.

I have tweak my report (LRG) sheet, which is linked to the log (L) sheet by L global # and to the header sheet (MK) as MK global #.

In the report sheet I moved the column (i.e., link) to MK from the far right to the far left (yellow column). I've also added a number of variable headers in the MK sheet. I'm currently up to 47 (variable headers). One could add 1000's or 10,000's of headers if they wish.

Below are examples of these two sheets from my current version that contains 36 worksheets (or Excel Tabs).

LGR Sheet Example.

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MK Sheet Headers

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999-MK-2.png (228.5 KiB) Viewed 454 times

999-MK-3.png (144.33 KiB) Viewed 454 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 23. Axis #8. Asian Front. China. Sian, Attack Planning.

(1) I'm letting you in on some of my real time attack planning, in this case as IJA's Hata's & Umezu's Army Groups (Northern China) staffs.
(2) Constraints given are that neither HQ will provide HQ support due to the inability to oil such HQs because of broken CP lines in the South China Sea.
(3) Also, only 1 of 4 NEI oil is left this turn after USN strategic bombing has knocked out the other 3.
(4) After much back and forth between these HQs and Tokyo, Imperial Japanese HQs (in Tokyo) has agreed to the full use of the 6 imperial Japanese army & 1 IJN air wings in country, even though they can't be oiled this turn.
(5) However, with one major caveat, which is that their use provides the "best" chance of taking Sian if Hata & Umezu commit their armies to the assault.
(6) So, the first examination by the attack planners was determination of the base odds (i.e., odds with land units only constrained by no HQs/HQ support).
(7) Base odds are low at +2.462, which gives only 7.8% of taking Sian ASSUMING the CCP elects to fight an assault vs blitz, which gives the lowest PWIN %.
(8) Hata's & Umezu's staff documents this assumption, that is assault, on the basis of being conservative in their planning. That is, the estimates of victory provide are the lower for assault vs blitz, though CCP may wish to fight a blitz to maximize CCP units survival.
(9) There are two air support strike packages considered: (1) All 7 wings used in ground support (Max ground support) and (2) 2 wings (max air actions available) used for ground strike & remaining 5 wings used in ground support.
(10) Strike package 1 raises the assault odds to +4.615A and PWIN to 18.7%. Note that these odds are a GIVEN if strike package 1 is used.
(11) Odds with strike package 2 aren't a given because of the probabilistic nature of the outcome of a ground strike.
(12) So three cases, (2a) expected, (2b) worst(all miss) and (2c) better than expected were considered.
(13) The expected case (2a) gives +2.2 of the possible +5 (2 armies, 1 div) in ground strike flip bonus, or +6.046A & 28.4% PWIN.
(14) Worse case (2b, all missed) gives the lowest land combat odds for this package, which is +3.846A & 14.2% PWIN.
(15) Better than expected (2c, both armies flipped, 19% chance of that) gives +7.846A & 43.6% PWIN.
(16) No staff attack planning report/briefing would be complete without a recommendation for their boss, or in this case their bosses.
(17) Recommendations. Strike Package 2, commit to the land combat if +2 or greater (of the +5) flips are achieved and expect for the Bushido attitude of the attacking IJA troops to take Sian.
(18) If 0 or +1 is achieved wait and ground strike again in a later fined weather impulse using 2 of the remaining (organized) air wings.
(19) Headed off for a short walk with my dog and will resolve the 2 ground strikes after that (most likely).
(20) How do you like insight into my real time play? For me, since changing to this style 2 turns ago, I'm actually thinking through in more detail my play and finding it more enjoyable.
(21) So thanks to all of you that are following.

08-AX-Asian-China-AP-Sian.png (885.59 KiB) Viewed 445 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 23. May/June 1943. Axis #8. Asian Theater.

IJN/IJA Ground Strike Sian.

08-AX-Asian-GSTK-Sian-CL.png (25.35 KiB) Viewed 438 times

08-AX-Asian-GSTK-Sian.png (370.42 KiB) Viewed 438 times

[Courtenay]

What is the garrison ratio looking like in Italy?

[rkr1958]

What is the garrison ratio looking like in Italy?

I haven't been counting; but I think Italy is ok this turn (anyway) as most of the allied land units are in contact (i.e., in a ZOC) of an axis unit. I don't see that changing too much this turn unless the allies get another impulse and is able to fully clear Sicily. Also, from my counter factual perspective I haven't explicitly been counting but indirectly preparing by German by getting ZOC over central & northern Italian hexes. I've also made a decision not empty Italian units out when it gets close. We'll see how well all that plays out. By the way, Ethiopia is the only remaining Italian possession and after Italy surrenders the Western Allies will make it a priority to capture Addis Ababa to knock Italy out for good.

[Courtenay]

Ethiopia is not aligned to Italy, but conquered by it. You do not need to conquer Ethiopia to knock Italy out of the war. Indeed, the Allies can't conquer Ethiopia, they liberate it.
If Albania, Italian Somaliland, Eritrea and Libya have been conquered by the Allies, get all the Italian units back to Italy, because they will all disappear when Italy is conquered.

[rkr1958]

Turn 23. May/June 1943. Axis #8. The Eastern Front.

Attack Planning. Siberian Army Groups. Ulyanovsk, USSR.
(1) Base odds with +2 HQ support is 10.75A & 70% PWIN.
(2) 2 bomber & 1 fighter-bomber air wing available for ground strike or support.
(3) Statistics say all three should fly as ground strike; however, that would require 3 of the 4 available Luftwaffe air actions this impulse.
(4) The expected ground strike vs ground support delta for the Bf 109 F/B is only +0.17 (i.e., 0.42 ground strike - 0.25 support), which OKL considers NOT worth the air action; therefore only 2 air actions allocated to this land combat.
(5) Expected improvement from the 2 ground strike, 1 ground support strike package is +2.9, which increases odds to +13.9A & 89.5% PWIN.
(6) Best case is 3 flips (+5), which has slightly less than 20% chance of happening, increases odds to +16A & 97% PWIN.

08-AX-Eastern-AP-Ulyanovsk.png (827.69 KiB) Viewed 419 times

Ground Strike. Ulyanovsk, USSR.
(7) The Luftwaffe executed the ground strike flawlessly, flipping all three units (2 armies & 1 div).
(8) This should put the actual land combat at +16A & 97% PWIN.

08-AX-Eastern-GSTK-Ulyanovsk.png (377.52 KiB) Viewed 419 times

Attack Planning. Southern Army Groups.
(9) With maximum ground support from 3 Luftwaffe bomber wings & 1 fighter bomber wing, the Southern Army Groups look to be able to destroy the 2 isolated and flipped GBAs and link up with the isolated SS mech & ROM mtn corps.
(10) For there the Wehrmacht plans to pour in mech and/or armor to blitz their way into Georgia and on the border with Turkey.
(11) Getting Turkey into the war is looking much more possible than it was even a few impulses ago.
(12) There's only a 0.2% chance that the planned assault can't break through to the SS & Rom corps.

08-AX-Eastern-AP-Caucasus -60-71.png (667.73 KiB) Viewed 419 times

[rkr1958]

Ethiopia is not aligned to Italy, but conquered by it. You do not need to conquer Ethiopia to knock Italy out of the war. Indeed, the Allies can't conquer Ethiopia, they liberate it.
If Albania, Italian Somaliland, Eritrea and Libya have been conquered by the Allies, get all the Italian units back to Italy, because they will all disappear when Italy is conquered.

Oh, good to know because all of those are now controlled by the allies. The political situation concerning Italy just got a lot more dicey.

[rkr1958]

Turn 23. May/June 1943. Axis #8. MTO. End of Impulse.

(1) At the point in the impulse when the Italian armed forces learned that their political leaders were secretly negotiating with the Western Allies for complete surrender, all ground and air forces that could started moving back towards Italy.
(2) Italian forces on critical garrison duties in France and Yugoslavia will remain in place until replaced by German units, after which they will be moved back to Italy.

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[rkr1958]

Turn 23. Axis #8. Asian Front. China.

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08-AX-Asian-LC-Sian.png (278.18 KiB) Viewed 405 times

08-AX-Asian-LC-2-CHI-RP-73-143.png (287.97 KiB) Viewed 405 times

08-AX-Asian-LC-3-Canton.png (255.67 KiB) Viewed 405 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 23. Axis #8. Asian Front. China. End of Impulse.

08-AX-Asian-China-EOI.png (1.94 MiB) Viewed 404 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 23. Axis #8. The Eastern Front. Finland.

08-AX-Eastern-Finland-CL.png (35.95 KiB) Viewed 401 times

08-AX-Eastern-LC-1-Murmansk.png (235.96 KiB) Viewed 401 times

08-AX-Eastern-Finland-EOI.png (1.49 MiB) Viewed 401 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 23. Axis #8. The Eastern Front. Siberian Army Groups.

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08-AX-Eastern-GSTK-Ulyanovsk.png (377.52 KiB) Viewed 399 times

08-AX-Eastern-LC-2-Ulyanovsk.png (279.72 KiB) Viewed 399 times

08-AX-Eastern-Siberian-EOI.png (1.33 MiB) Viewed 399 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 23. Axis #8. The Eastern Front. Southern Army Groups.

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08-AX-Eastern-LC-3-Caucasus-60-71.png (240.59 KiB) Viewed 398 times

08-AX-Eastern-Southern-EOI.png (1.86 MiB) Viewed 398 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 23. May/June 1943. Axis #8 -> Allied #9.

(1) Turn continues on a D10=8 vs 2 or less to end.
(2) Weather remains the same with D10=5.

08-AX-09-AL-EOT-Weather.png (30.28 KiB) Viewed 394 times

[Courtenay]

Ethiopia is not aligned to Italy, but conquered by it. You do not need to conquer Ethiopia to knock Italy out of the war. Indeed, the Allies can't conquer Ethiopia, they liberate it.
If Albania, Italian Somaliland, Eritrea and Libya have been conquered by the Allies, get all the Italian units back to Italy, because they will all disappear when Italy is conquered.

Oh, good to know because all of those are now controlled by the allies. The political situation concerning Italy just got a lot more dicey.

I just realized my statement assumes that Italy has not aligned any countries that the Allies declared war on and either did not conquer or the Axis liberated. I do assume that is the case in this game, since the Near East is owned by the Allies.

Also, the Japanese just demonstrated one of the rules of WiF: Your important attacks get the low dice rolls, your unimportant ones get the high dice rolls. I am not quite sure where that rule is in the rules, but I am certain it is in there somewhere.

[rkr1958]

Ethiopia is not aligned to Italy, but conquered by it. You do not need to conquer Ethiopia to knock Italy out of the war. Indeed, the Allies can't conquer Ethiopia, they liberate it.
If Albania, Italian Somaliland, Eritrea and Libya have been conquered by the Allies, get all the Italian units back to Italy, because they will all disappear when Italy is conquered.

Oh, good to know because all of those are now controlled by the allies. The political situation concerning Italy just got a lot more dicey.

I just realized my statement assumes that Italy has not aligned any countries that the Allies declared war on and either did not conquer or the Axis liberated. I do assume that is the case in this game, since the Near East is owned by the Allies.

Also, the Japanese just demonstrated one of the rules of WiF: Your important attacks get the low dice rolls, your unimportant ones get the high dice rolls. I am not quite sure where that rule is in the rules, but I am certain it is in there somewhere.

What I really like about MWIF over a lot of other computer wargames is that the PWIN calculations for all combats are straightforward though involved. The reason is that MWIF was adapted from a boardgame with dice, so all PWIN calculations are straight probability derivations.

If you can't tell my educational background included a lot of math, probability and statistics, computer programming. My career background includes all that plus computer simulations and analysis of complex defense problems from the detailed 1 on 1 up to the many on many scenario. By the way, back in my college days computer languages I worked with was FORTRAN IV and BASIC. The BASIC was limited to 1 or 2 character variable names! In FORTRAN IV you could have variable names up 6 characters in length. Also, I learned FORTRAN on card decks and my early career included FORTRAN and card decks. Card decks that you'd give to an operator to load, the 30-minutes later you'd get your deck back with printout. Oh those lovely green and white wide stripe line printouts. DANG, I made a stupid syntax error so my code didn't compile. Go back to the card punch fix that line and resubmit. 30-minutes later card deck and printout back. Well it complied but my program crashed! Fix logic error, resubmit ... rinse & repeat. It took 2 to 3 days to accomplish what one can now in 2 to 3 hours or even less.

In retirement (been retired since March 12, 2020, 1-day before the lockdowns!), I find that I approach my MWIF play with the same mindset as I did my work problems. Though now at my own pace and in a much more relaxed manner. Sorry to digress, my point of all this is that I love making game play decisions on solid PWIN estimates. When I do decide to literally roll the dice on know odds (or probabilities) and RISKS, I accept those outcomes, and RISKS, good or bad. Especially the bad. In my view not accepting a bad result and redoing either the decision to attack or the roll itself would taint my game which at this point I've invested over a year playing AND significantly diminish those times that I do pull off amazing high risk/high gain attacks. I feel this way whether it's solo or vs human opponent play. Why anyone would "cheat" in a game like this (again either solo or vs human opponent) baffles me. It would take the "fun" out of those tremendous "good" luck outcomes.

[rkr1958]

Turn 23. May/June 1943. Allied #9.

Actions.

Land - USA, CW, China, USSR.
Combine - Free France (Sub Gp can search for the USN in the South China Sea).

MTO.
(1) Both allied ground strikes vs OOS MILs in Messina & Reggio miss.
(2) Contemplated still going ahead with an land combat assault vs Italian MIL in Messina (mountain, so doubled).
(3) No naval or air available for shore bombardment or ground support (all used up and flipped previously this turn).
(4) Assault odds vs Messina would be +10.75 -> 98.5% PWIN BUT with risks: (a) 2.3% lose 3 attacking units, (b) 16.3% lose 2, (c) 23.3% lose 1 & (d) 58.3% lose 0.
(5) Decide that patience is the better part of valor in this case and NOT attack (i.e., Land Combat is a NO-GO).
(6) That is wait until MIL is flipped and/or next turn when shore bombardment & ground support become available.
(7) USAAF L4 with 2 TAC did rebase to Sicily so there still is a chance this turn for capturing Messina = 0.7 x 0.6 x 0.2 = 0.084 (8.4%). That is turn continues this (allied) & next (axis) impulse & L4 flips the OOS Italian MIL.
(8) Not great but worth a short if the allies get another one this turn.

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