GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Moderator: Shannon V. OKeets
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 33. Jan/Feb 1944. End of Turn.
Breakdown Armies/Corps. (1/7) Germany, Western Front. (2/7) Germany, Eastern Front. (3/7) Free French. Balkans.
Breakdown Armies/Corps. (1/7) Germany, Western Front. (2/7) Germany, Eastern Front. (3/7) Free French. Balkans.
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 33. Jan/Feb 1944. End of Turn.
Breakdown Armies/Corps.
(4/7) USA, Western Front #1. (5/7) USA, Western Front #2. (6/7) USSR, Eastern Front #1. (7/7) USSR, Eastern Front #2.
Breakdown Armies/Corps.
(4/7) USA, Western Front #1. (5/7) USA, Western Front #2. (6/7) USSR, Eastern Front #1. (7/7) USSR, Eastern Front #2.
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
I should have read the specific rule before now! Now that the US built their first atom bomb. The requirement that the carrier had to have strategic factors of 9 or more was something I "just learned". US has no such bomber on map. And looking at their force pool, of the 12 strategic bombers only 4 meet that requirement. So what is the US to do? Bit of a spoiler, the built their first atom bomb and rolled the dice by building 2 LND4 giving them a 57.6% chance of getting at least 1 of the 4 with 9+ strat factors. Even if they get one with 12+ strat factors, the bomber won't be ready until turn 37, Sep/Oct 1945.rkr1958 wrote: Mon Jul 22, 2024 12:04 pmThanks. I am not using the optional, carpet bombing. So, my understanding is that you may use them for either strategic bombing or port strikes. Is this correct?Angeldust2 wrote: Mon Jul 22, 2024 5:25 am???rkr1958 wrote: Mon Jul 22, 2024 4:58 am Turn 33. Jan/Feb 1945. Axis #7. Impulse #233.
(23) Japan's a different story in that their Home Islands are heavily defended.
(24) I've never played with atomic bombs but that's my plan for Japan.
(25) Build the bomb and bomb them
(26) Trying to invade would be suicide.
Maybe you should check the effects of A-Bombs again, before you base your strategy on them. I think, they cannot help significantly against an already heavily defended Japan, or am I missing something? Do you play with carpet bombing?
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 33. Jan/Feb 1945. End of Turn.
Surrender?
(1) I guess Vichy really wants to surrender (again). Last turn they surrender to the USA. This turn to the CW.
(2) Also, this is the first turn in a long while that China was NOT asked to surrender. Factory Destruction.
(3) CW destroys blue factory in Hamburg, Germany.
Surrender?
(1) I guess Vichy really wants to surrender (again). Last turn they surrender to the USA. This turn to the CW.
(2) Also, this is the first turn in a long while that China was NOT asked to surrender. Factory Destruction.
(3) CW destroys blue factory in Hamburg, Germany.
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 33. Jan/Feb 1945. End of Turn.
Economics. Production Spiral. (1) US did hit the 57.6% that with 2 LND4 builds that one would have 9+ SAC factors.
(2) Again, it won't be ready until turn 37, Sep/Oct 1945.
Economics. Production Spiral. (1) US did hit the 57.6% that with 2 LND4 builds that one would have 9+ SAC factors.
(2) Again, it won't be ready until turn 37, Sep/Oct 1945.
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 33. Jan/Feb 1945. End of Turn.
Production Plots.
Gross BPs.
Per Turn. Cumulative. Net BPs.
Per Turn. Cumulative.
Production Plots.
Gross BPs.
Per Turn. Cumulative. Net BPs.
Per Turn. Cumulative.
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 33. Jan/Feb 1945. End of Turn.
Oil Plots.
Income. Reorg Need. Reorg Expended. Stockpile (Total Saved Oil).
Oil Plots.
Income. Reorg Need. Reorg Expended. Stockpile (Total Saved Oil).
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 33. Jan/Feb 1945. Turn Summary.
Weather & Actions. Combat Logs.
Turn. All. War Directives.
Weather & Actions. Combat Logs.
Turn. All. War Directives.
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 33. Jan/Feb 1945. Turn Summary.
Global Maps.
Control. Units. Active Axis. Active Allied.
Global Maps.
Control. Units. Active Axis. Active Allied.
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Start of Turn.
Reinforcements.
(1) Turn ending when it did was major for Germany.
(2) Massive German & air reinforcements including 14 fighter & bomber wings!
(3) Also, if axis move first then will breakthrough to isolated Army Group in central France. Trade Agreements.
(4) US stops lend lease (6 BPs) to USSR.
(5) US stops 1 non-oil RP to China because China now has enough RPs to feed their working factories. Initiative.
Weather Forecast. Voting & Instructions.
Reinforcements.
(1) Turn ending when it did was major for Germany.
(2) Massive German & air reinforcements including 14 fighter & bomber wings!
(3) Also, if axis move first then will breakthrough to isolated Army Group in central France. Trade Agreements.
(4) US stops lend lease (6 BPs) to USSR.
(5) US stops 1 non-oil RP to China because China now has enough RPs to feed their working factories. Initiative.
Weather Forecast. Voting & Instructions.
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Allied #1. Impulse #234.
Actions & Weather. War Directives.
(1) I've come to the conclusion at this stage in my counterfactual that it's time to retire my War Directives driven approach for one that focuses on control of the 67 objective cities. Objective Cities.
(2) Control of the 67 objective cities along with "score" has been a standard report at the end of each turn for all 33 turns played thus far.
(3) Score is the difference between the number of objective cities controlled and the average of the historical and game "average" provided with MWIF.
(4) That is, Score = VPs - (Historical + Average) / 2.
(5) As you can see Germany current has a commanding lead with a score of 8 followed by the Western Allies 0.
(6) The USSR and Japan, each currently with a score of -4, bring up the rear.
(7) Well, the rear, rear is Italy being completely conquered on turn 23, May/June 1943. Italy's score is irrelevant, they finished dead last. Tehran Conference.
(8) In my counterfactual whether or not the "Big 3" (FDR, Winston Churchill, Joseph Stalin) would have met at Tehran or not is irrelevant.
(9) They would have met for a "second" time somewhere.
(10) I think it obvious that while both German and Japan have a lot more fight left, German so more than Japan, that the axis are going to be defeated.
(11) Germany will be completely conquered even if the war (i.e., game) extends pass turn 36.
(12) Japan, honestly I don't know I have the energy for a full scale invasion and conquest of the Home Islands.
(13) Much like the real allies (mainly US) felt.
(14) However in my case it's just a bit of "war gaming" fatigue versus the real case where 1,000,000's or even 10,000,000's potential lives loss (both sides, military and civilian).
(15) I'm not sure the US public in 1946 would have tolerate such losses after 5 years or war.
(16) So my plan is to play out this counterfactual until Germany is completely conquered and every objective city outside of Japan is controlled by the allies.
(17) This leaves Japan with one (Tokyo).
(18) Then I think it's reasonable to conclude this counterfactual on the premise that the Atomic bomb forced Japan to surrender with the concession that they get to keep their emperor. Whether or not through demonstration or actual use, I'll leave that choice up to the reader.
(19) There's still a lot of "fighting" left; specifically in Europe before then so I see this counterfactual AAR continuing on for some time.
(20) Honestly, I'm having a blast even though the outcome isn't really in doubt.
(21) The last scoring will be at the end of Turn 36, Jul/Aug 1945; however, if my requirements for ending are not yet achieved I will continue.
Status.
(22) Even though the Western Allies have a score of 0, meaning they're on par with historical (& game average) objective cities controlled, they're behind in Europe and way ahead in the Pacific & Asia.
(23) However; they're poised to make that difference up quickly.
(24) In my counterfactual my Western Allies have an opportunity to do in Europe what the actual Western Allies couldn't and was the reason for the start of World War II.
(25) And that is; reestablish and guarantee Poland's sovereignty.
Objective City Objectives
(26) The following is a list (not necessarily in order of priority) of enemy objective city "objectives" for the allies.
(27) Western Allies (13) - Paris, Antwerp, Amsterdam, Munich, Prague, Warsaw, Vienna, Belgrade, Budapest, Takaki, Diego Suarez, Istanbul, Bucharest.
(28) USSR / CCP (8) - Kiev, Istanbul, Bucharest, Warsaw, Budapest, Prague, Vienna, Chunking.
(29) China (Nationalist) (1) - Chunking.
(30) Note that the intersection of these list are NOT null meaning the Western Allies, Soviets and Chinese Nationalist have eyes on some of the same objectives.
(31) Of course, capturing enemy objective cities require sound military strategy and the capture of other critical cities.
(32) One example, is Donitz's new U-boat base at Rotterdam.
(33) Other examples include cities with factories and/or resource points.
(34) Or cities for airbases and to deny supply.
Actions & Weather. War Directives.
(1) I've come to the conclusion at this stage in my counterfactual that it's time to retire my War Directives driven approach for one that focuses on control of the 67 objective cities. Objective Cities.
(2) Control of the 67 objective cities along with "score" has been a standard report at the end of each turn for all 33 turns played thus far.
(3) Score is the difference between the number of objective cities controlled and the average of the historical and game "average" provided with MWIF.
(4) That is, Score = VPs - (Historical + Average) / 2.
(5) As you can see Germany current has a commanding lead with a score of 8 followed by the Western Allies 0.
(6) The USSR and Japan, each currently with a score of -4, bring up the rear.
(7) Well, the rear, rear is Italy being completely conquered on turn 23, May/June 1943. Italy's score is irrelevant, they finished dead last. Tehran Conference.
(8) In my counterfactual whether or not the "Big 3" (FDR, Winston Churchill, Joseph Stalin) would have met at Tehran or not is irrelevant.
(9) They would have met for a "second" time somewhere.
(10) I think it obvious that while both German and Japan have a lot more fight left, German so more than Japan, that the axis are going to be defeated.
(11) Germany will be completely conquered even if the war (i.e., game) extends pass turn 36.
(12) Japan, honestly I don't know I have the energy for a full scale invasion and conquest of the Home Islands.
(13) Much like the real allies (mainly US) felt.
(14) However in my case it's just a bit of "war gaming" fatigue versus the real case where 1,000,000's or even 10,000,000's potential lives loss (both sides, military and civilian).
(15) I'm not sure the US public in 1946 would have tolerate such losses after 5 years or war.
(16) So my plan is to play out this counterfactual until Germany is completely conquered and every objective city outside of Japan is controlled by the allies.
(17) This leaves Japan with one (Tokyo).
(18) Then I think it's reasonable to conclude this counterfactual on the premise that the Atomic bomb forced Japan to surrender with the concession that they get to keep their emperor. Whether or not through demonstration or actual use, I'll leave that choice up to the reader.
(19) There's still a lot of "fighting" left; specifically in Europe before then so I see this counterfactual AAR continuing on for some time.
(20) Honestly, I'm having a blast even though the outcome isn't really in doubt.
(21) The last scoring will be at the end of Turn 36, Jul/Aug 1945; however, if my requirements for ending are not yet achieved I will continue.
Status.
(22) Even though the Western Allies have a score of 0, meaning they're on par with historical (& game average) objective cities controlled, they're behind in Europe and way ahead in the Pacific & Asia.
(23) However; they're poised to make that difference up quickly.
(24) In my counterfactual my Western Allies have an opportunity to do in Europe what the actual Western Allies couldn't and was the reason for the start of World War II.
(25) And that is; reestablish and guarantee Poland's sovereignty.
Objective City Objectives
(26) The following is a list (not necessarily in order of priority) of enemy objective city "objectives" for the allies.
(27) Western Allies (13) - Paris, Antwerp, Amsterdam, Munich, Prague, Warsaw, Vienna, Belgrade, Budapest, Takaki, Diego Suarez, Istanbul, Bucharest.
(28) USSR / CCP (8) - Kiev, Istanbul, Bucharest, Warsaw, Budapest, Prague, Vienna, Chunking.
(29) China (Nationalist) (1) - Chunking.
(30) Note that the intersection of these list are NOT null meaning the Western Allies, Soviets and Chinese Nationalist have eyes on some of the same objectives.
(31) Of course, capturing enemy objective cities require sound military strategy and the capture of other critical cities.
(32) One example, is Donitz's new U-boat base at Rotterdam.
(33) Other examples include cities with factories and/or resource points.
(34) Or cities for airbases and to deny supply.
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Allied #1. Actions (Revised) & Weather.
REVISED: CW also taking a super combine (vs land).
REVISED: CW also taking a super combine (vs land).
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Allied #1. Med.
Port Strike. Istanbul, Turkey.
[rain] Surprise D10(G/O=AL/AX): USN=2, TUR=1. Turkey use 2 SPs to reduce their risk from A to none.
Port Strike. Istanbul, Turkey.
[rain] Surprise D10(G/O=AL/AX): USN=2, TUR=1. Turkey use 2 SPs to reduce their risk from A to none.
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Allied #1.
PTO & Joint Naval (Atlantic & Med)Commands.
Threat.
IJN.
(1) IJN WILL take a naval so all elements below are threats! KM.
(2) KM may take a combine (all subs or BB raiders), unlikely to take a naval or two combines (subs and BB raiders) and all elements below need to be adequately but minimally addressed. IJN I-boat, German U-boat Threat to Allied Convoys.
(3) The below risk assessment is why the CW action was changed from land to super combine.
(4) Along with the US, who took a super combine, there's great need to address the certain threat from IJN I-boats and the possible threat from German U-boats/Sub Gps.
(5) The graphic below shows the number of I-boat Squadrons (in red) and the number of German U-boat flotillas/Sub Gps (in black) that can reach sea areas with allied convoys.
PTO & Joint Naval (Atlantic & Med)Commands.
Threat.
IJN.
(1) IJN WILL take a naval so all elements below are threats! KM.
(2) KM may take a combine (all subs or BB raiders), unlikely to take a naval or two combines (subs and BB raiders) and all elements below need to be adequately but minimally addressed. IJN I-boat, German U-boat Threat to Allied Convoys.
(3) The below risk assessment is why the CW action was changed from land to super combine.
(4) Along with the US, who took a super combine, there's great need to address the certain threat from IJN I-boats and the possible threat from German U-boats/Sub Gps.
(5) The graphic below shows the number of I-boat Squadrons (in red) and the number of German U-boat flotillas/Sub Gps (in black) that can reach sea areas with allied convoys.
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Allied #1. Naval Moves.
Western Front. North & Baltic Sea
(1) 30% fine + 20% rain = 50% amphibious possible next allied impulse.
North Sea [4] -> Invasion Task Force (2 armies), bombardment & reinforcements (Denmark)
North Sea[3] -> Bombardment, reinforcement, support task force.
North Sea[2] -> Reinforcement, support task force.
Baltic Sea[4] -> Carrier, Battleship, Heavy Cruiser task force looking to break KM convoy line (sink/abort).
Baltic Sea[4 & 3] -> Bombardment task forces in support of land combat along coast (30% fine + 20% rain + 20% snow = 70%).
Western Front. North & Baltic Sea
(1) 30% fine + 20% rain = 50% amphibious possible next allied impulse.
North Sea [4] -> Invasion Task Force (2 armies), bombardment & reinforcements (Denmark)
North Sea[3] -> Bombardment, reinforcement, support task force.
North Sea[2] -> Reinforcement, support task force.
Baltic Sea[4] -> Carrier, Battleship, Heavy Cruiser task force looking to break KM convoy line (sink/abort).
Baltic Sea[4 & 3] -> Bombardment task forces in support of land combat along coast (30% fine + 20% rain + 20% snow = 70%).
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Allied #1. Naval Moves.
East Coast. Caribbean.
(1) More reinforcements for Europe and/or Med.
(2) Pretty good ASW escorts and patrols given low; but not zero, probability of U-boat sorties.
(3) USA & CW used (will use) a lot of oil but action and oiling much more important than production at this point.
East Coast. Caribbean.
(1) More reinforcements for Europe and/or Med.
(2) Pretty good ASW escorts and patrols given low; but not zero, probability of U-boat sorties.
(3) USA & CW used (will use) a lot of oil but action and oiling much more important than production at this point.
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Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Allied #1. Naval Moves.
Bay of Biscay. North Atlantic. Central Atlantic. Cape St. Vincent.
(1) Strong ASW escorts & patrols (again given threat likelihood).
(2) RN CVs, BB, CA, USN BB redeploying to Pacific but while do so adding to ASW escort & patrol.
Bay of Biscay. North Atlantic. Central Atlantic. Cape St. Vincent.
(1) Strong ASW escorts & patrols (again given threat likelihood).
(2) RN CVs, BB, CA, USN BB redeploying to Pacific but while do so adding to ASW escort & patrol.
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 34. Mar/Apr 1945. Allied #1. Naval Moves.
BOA. Cape Verde Basin. Mouth of the Amazons.
BOA. Cape Verde Basin. Mouth of the Amazons.
Ronnie