GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Moderator: Shannon V. OKeets
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 35. May/June 1945. Allied #4. Impulse #244.
Weather & Actions.
(1) US, CW, USSR play O-chits.
(2) O-Chits remaining are US 2, CW & USSR 0.
(3) While German still has some fight left in them, this allied impulse will (barring horrible luck) break Germany in half (last allied impulse broke their back).
(4) Slightly behind that in priority for the allies is a race to "liberate" objective cities.
(5) With some objective cities in the crosshairs of both the Western Allies and USSR, I need to come up with a rule on who gets the first crack at that city.
(6) I think I'm going to do something to the effect of total of modified land & air combat factors that either side would bring to bear in an assault against a given objective city.
(7) Let those be AF-Total(Western Allied) & AF-Total(USSR).
(8) Next calculate each side likelihood probability as:
(a) Like-Prob(Western Allied) = AF-Total(Western Allied) / (AF-Total(Western Allied) + AF-Total(USSR))
(b) Like-Prob(USSR) = AF-Total(USSR) / (AF-Total(Western Allied) + AF-Total(USSR))
(9) Then roll a D100 to determine which faction gets the shot.
(10) That is if D100 <= Like-Prob(Western Allied) then Western Allied faction gets the shot; otherwise the USSR does.
(11) Also, I've decided to include the optional rule carpet bombing for attacks with the A-bomb ONLY; otherwise, continue NOT to use carpet bombing.
(12) The A-bomb & carpet bombing is only relevant for the Pacific.
Weather & Actions.
(1) US, CW, USSR play O-chits.
(2) O-Chits remaining are US 2, CW & USSR 0.
(3) While German still has some fight left in them, this allied impulse will (barring horrible luck) break Germany in half (last allied impulse broke their back).
(4) Slightly behind that in priority for the allies is a race to "liberate" objective cities.
(5) With some objective cities in the crosshairs of both the Western Allies and USSR, I need to come up with a rule on who gets the first crack at that city.
(6) I think I'm going to do something to the effect of total of modified land & air combat factors that either side would bring to bear in an assault against a given objective city.
(7) Let those be AF-Total(Western Allied) & AF-Total(USSR).
(8) Next calculate each side likelihood probability as:
(a) Like-Prob(Western Allied) = AF-Total(Western Allied) / (AF-Total(Western Allied) + AF-Total(USSR))
(b) Like-Prob(USSR) = AF-Total(USSR) / (AF-Total(Western Allied) + AF-Total(USSR))
(9) Then roll a D100 to determine which faction gets the shot.
(10) That is if D100 <= Like-Prob(Western Allied) then Western Allied faction gets the shot; otherwise the USSR does.
(11) Also, I've decided to include the optional rule carpet bombing for attacks with the A-bomb ONLY; otherwise, continue NOT to use carpet bombing.
(12) The A-bomb & carpet bombing is only relevant for the Pacific.
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 35. May/June 1945. Allied #4. Asian & Pacific Theater.
China. End of Impulse.
(1) Nimitz (US), Blamey (AUS) & Stillwell (Nat/US) (3 HQ-I) along with their army move at top speed toward Chungking.
(2) These 3 HQs will chain together to provide supply via Ichang for the assault to liberate Chungking (objective city).
(3) Likely won't happen this turn.
(4) The good news is that Chungking, Ichang & the needed supply chain are all in the north temperate and next turn is Jul/Aug.
(5) Mao concedes any attempt for the CCP to liberate Chungking and heads back to garrison the objective city of Lanchow.
(6) USMC 1st div is left behind to garrison Shanghai (objective city). Manchuria. Korea. End of Impulse.
(7) Ind inf corps moves into Port Arthur to garrison.
(8) No need to risk any objective city even to a very unlikely (very low probability) IJA invasion next turn. Madagascar. End of Impulse.
China. End of Impulse.
(1) Nimitz (US), Blamey (AUS) & Stillwell (Nat/US) (3 HQ-I) along with their army move at top speed toward Chungking.
(2) These 3 HQs will chain together to provide supply via Ichang for the assault to liberate Chungking (objective city).
(3) Likely won't happen this turn.
(4) The good news is that Chungking, Ichang & the needed supply chain are all in the north temperate and next turn is Jul/Aug.
(5) Mao concedes any attempt for the CCP to liberate Chungking and heads back to garrison the objective city of Lanchow.
(6) USMC 1st div is left behind to garrison Shanghai (objective city). Manchuria. Korea. End of Impulse.
(7) Ind inf corps moves into Port Arthur to garrison.
(8) No need to risk any objective city even to a very unlikely (very low probability) IJA invasion next turn. Madagascar. End of Impulse.
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 35. May/June 1945. Allied #4. Middle East.
Persia. Iraq. End of Impulse.
(1) Soviets rail a Garrison to protect the Tehran, Persia (objective city).
(2) Unfortunately for the Soviets due to the Iraqi partisan in Baraza, Iraq no rail link exist to Baghdad.
(3) And the Soviets don't have any land unit in position to reach that city this turn and probably next turn too.
(4) Stalin is just going to have to trust to luck, which is NOT a strategy, that no Iraqi partisan spawns this turn or next (currently at 97% no partisan spawns). Turkey. End of Impulse.
(5) Looks like the Western Allies have won the react to Istanbul.
(6) However; it likely won't be until next turn turn that they'll have the force to make a credible assault to take the objective city.
(7) Actually, that's fine with the Western Allies as final score isn't tallied until the end of next turn.
Persia. Iraq. End of Impulse.
(1) Soviets rail a Garrison to protect the Tehran, Persia (objective city).
(2) Unfortunately for the Soviets due to the Iraqi partisan in Baraza, Iraq no rail link exist to Baghdad.
(3) And the Soviets don't have any land unit in position to reach that city this turn and probably next turn too.
(4) Stalin is just going to have to trust to luck, which is NOT a strategy, that no Iraqi partisan spawns this turn or next (currently at 97% no partisan spawns). Turkey. End of Impulse.
(5) Looks like the Western Allies have won the react to Istanbul.
(6) However; it likely won't be until next turn turn that they'll have the force to make a credible assault to take the objective city.
(7) Actually, that's fine with the Western Allies as final score isn't tallied until the end of next turn.
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 35. May/June 1945. Allied #4. The Eastern Front.
Combat Logs.
Combat Logs.
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 35. May/June 1945. Allied #4. The Eastern Front.
Unassociated Ground Strikes.
(1/2) Vilna, Poland. (2/2) Finland 36,52.
Unassociated Ground Strikes.
(1/2) Vilna, Poland. (2/2) Finland 36,52.
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 35. May/June 1945. Allied #4. The Eastern Front.
Land Combat & Support.
(1/5) Minsk, USSR. (2/5) Latvia 44,50. (3/5) USSR 42,51.
Land Combat & Support.
(1/5) Minsk, USSR. (2/5) Latvia 44,50. (3/5) USSR 42,51.
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 35. May/June 1945. Allied #4. The Eastern Front.
Land Combat & Support.
(4/5) Romania 59,52. (5/5) Novgorod, USSR. HQ Reorg.
Land Combat & Support.
(4/5) Romania 59,52. (5/5) Novgorod, USSR. HQ Reorg.
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 35. May/June 1945. Allied #4. The Eastern Front.
End of Impulse.
End of Impulse.
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 35. May/June 1945. Allied #4. Western Allies.
Combat Logs.
Combat Logs.
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 35. May/June 1945. Allied #4. Western Allies.
Unattached Ground Strikes.
(1/2) Germany 49,37. (2/2) Germany 51,33.
Unattached Ground Strikes.
(1/2) Germany 49,37. (2/2) Germany 51,33.
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 35. May/June 1945. Allied #4. Western Allies.
Land Combat & Support.
(1/6) Germany 53,34. (2/6) Liege, Belgium.
Land Combat & Support.
(1/6) Germany 53,34. (2/6) Liege, Belgium.
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 35. May/June 1945. Allied #4. Western Allies.
Land Combat & Support.
(3/6) France 57,32. (4/6) Arnhem, Holland.
Land Combat & Support.
(3/6) France 57,32. (4/6) Arnhem, Holland.
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 35. May/June 1945. Allied #4. Western Allies.
Land Combat & Support.
(5/6) Rostock, Germany. (6/6) Budapest, Hungary.
Land Combat & Support.
(5/6) Rostock, Germany. (6/6) Budapest, Hungary.
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 35. May/June 1945. Allied #4. Western Allies.
Balkans. Italy. End of Impulse.
Balkans. Italy. End of Impulse.
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 35. May/June 1945. Allied #4. Western Allies.
The Western Front. End of Impulse.
The Western Front. End of Impulse.
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 35. May/June 1945. Axis #5. Impulse #245.
Weather & Actions. (1) Germany really wanted to pass along with Japan and take the 10% shot that the turn would end.
(2) However; that's too much desperation even at this "desperate" point for Germany.
(3) Passing would essentially be a 90% chance that Germany was conceding the game (i.e., war) and we all know the Fuhrer's position on that!
(4) In fact, he would concede (i.e.; surrender Germany) when it he and his cronies were 99.9% sure the war was lost.
Victory Point Status.
(5) Interesting analysis of the bids and current score.
(6) If this was the last turn, as opposed to the next to the last, Germany might take the 10% shot and pass.
(7) But it's not and the question is how many objective cities can Germany hold to the end of next turn?
(8) Another interesting fact is that the Soviets are behind Japan who currently only controls 2 objective cities.
Weather & Actions. (1) Germany really wanted to pass along with Japan and take the 10% shot that the turn would end.
(2) However; that's too much desperation even at this "desperate" point for Germany.
(3) Passing would essentially be a 90% chance that Germany was conceding the game (i.e., war) and we all know the Fuhrer's position on that!
(4) In fact, he would concede (i.e.; surrender Germany) when it he and his cronies were 99.9% sure the war was lost.
Victory Point Status.
(5) Interesting analysis of the bids and current score.
(6) If this was the last turn, as opposed to the next to the last, Germany might take the 10% shot and pass.
(7) But it's not and the question is how many objective cities can Germany hold to the end of next turn?
(8) Another interesting fact is that the Soviets are behind Japan who currently only controls 2 objective cities.
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 35. May/June 1945. Axis #5. Asian Theater.
China. End of Impulse.
(1) Isolated IJA in China do what they can to bolster the Chungking defenses.
(2) Is it enough?
China. End of Impulse.
(1) Isolated IJA in China do what they can to bolster the Chungking defenses.
(2) Is it enough?
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 35. May/June 1945. Axis #5. Eastern Front.
End of Impulse.
End of Impulse.
Ronnie