Sailing in harms way: InHarmsWay (J) vs Andav (A) Scen2

[PaxMondo]

To clarify a bit;

The luck part of the RnD truly is random. Once I put 21 RnD on A7M and 21 RnD on Ki-94. I got super lucky on the Ki-94, it came on line in mid-44, but the A7M didn't make it until Jan 45. This completely re-arranged my strategy in the game. ... needless to say getting a 440mph fighter with range 10 was a big deal. Sure, the allies had their TBolt, but were only able to build 6/day. I was building 21/day; I could re-equip a group every 3 days including making good all battle losses.

[InHarmsWay]

PaxMondo, thanks for the analysis. I messed up by not putting enough Sams into research day one, I think I only had 6, thinking my Zeros would hold the line. Dropped that line of thought based on the comment that Hellcats were designed to be zero killers....! So starting from a deficit there. I have been researching the engines from day one as well as initially ~10 factories for each of the frank, george and Ki-83 models. I think I will have 500 by the time each factory comes online. I had gotten the Ki-83s early (I think about a year early) in our last game, and they really made a difference in slowing his counterattack. So yes, they have a soft spot in my heart. Never looked at the Ki-94s as I felt it was too far out there with an initial 2/46 date.

[InHarmsWay]

Finally have the preparation completed. The liberation of Roi-Namur will begin in a couple days. All the pieces have been gathered, and from airfield and ground strikes the past few weeks, I think the Allies are out of supplies and should be sufficiently softened up.

July 25 1942 Marshalls.jpg (252.8 KiB) Viewed 830 times

[InHarmsWay]

Fear not gentle readers, the following dispatch from India is not as bad as it initially seems. The time has come to abandon dreams of Calcutta, and take the bird in hand, and leave the two in the bush. The allied land units have become too strong and I fear that if I had continued to push here with more units, it would become the attritional war I do not want. Plans have been made to retreat, with many large amph TFs moving to pull the remaining land units out.
In the hills to the NE, Army commanders have insisted on one final attack to rescue their honor, but in the long run, those same generals will be hearing for years how the Navy had to rescue them...

For those counting rifles, I have pulled out 2 beat up divisions (Imp Gds and 16th) and ~8-9 Arty units so far, Most of the Arty units are already heading towards Chungking. Plan here is to retreat slowly back into Burma, tying up allied units while setting up a defense in Burma, while keeping an eye out for the inevitable allied flank landing. From what I have read, supplies movement from India into Burma is a mess so will try and play into that. Last game Adm Wa landed near Singapore, and took it within a few weeks and that really screwed my defense.... Darn that tricky Admiral!

July 25 1942 Calcutta.jpg (724.79 KiB) Viewed 809 times

[InHarmsWay]

The IJA generals in India finally have something to celebrate! Saki flowed freely last night following news that the Allied XV Indian Army Corp had surrendered at Rangpur! Two Indian Divisions plus a British Brigade are now marching back into captivity!

The siren call of now continuing to push in India is strong but I am resisting, as the general premise of not wanting to get into an attritional war with the Allies is still valid, and I seriously doubt Adm Wa will allow his troops to be surrounded again. That was a lucky one off event as he has overextended and did not detect the troops from Calcutta area retreating into his rear. I do think he was overly focused on Calcutta as there are quite a few high quality troops tied down there, and I expect he wants to bag the two division I have there...

See Combat report for Rangpur below. This now puts me over 15k for Allied ground unit VPs....!

July 26 1942 Calcutta.jpg (680.85 KiB) Viewed 766 times

Ground combat at Rangpur (58,34)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 16349 troops, 255 guns, 616 vehicles, Assault Value = 741

Defending force 12841 troops, 149 guns, 217 vehicles, Assault Value = 384

Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 2

Japanese adjusted assault: 932

Allied adjusted defense: 191

Japanese assault odds: 4 to 1 (fort level 2)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Rangpur !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: forts(+), leaders(+), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
1035 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 90 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 9 disabled
Vehicles lost 55 (33 destroyed, 22 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
10377 casualties reported
Squads: 439 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 861 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 93 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 139 (139 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 234 (234 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units destroyed 5

Assaulting units:
14th Tank Regiment
21st Division
6th Tank Regiment
Guards Tank Division
51st Field AA Battalion

Defending units:
75th Indian Brigade
7th Indian Division
16th British Brigade
XV Indian Corps
1/198th Coast AA Battalion

[PaxMondo]

... Last game Adm Wa landed near Singapore, and took it within a few weeks and that really screwed my defense.... Darn that tricky Admiral!

This is the most common IJ failing: trying to hold SE Asia too long in the game and then becomes a death trap to so many valuable IJ units. As '43 ends, you need a plan of what units you will sacrifice in SE asia and which ones will evacuate to Hanoi or further east. You will lose some units, you need to, holding onto what you can in SE Asia for as long as you can. You just want to have chosen which units you will lose ... ditto for DEI. Now the PI, this is where you might choose to make a stand. The reason being is from the PI you can airlift 2/3 to 3/4 of an INF DIV out, shortening the rebuild process tremendously.

[InHarmsWay]

PaxMondo, I agree about the risks of defending too far forward, and getting bypassed with LCUs just left to rot. Adm Wa once said during our weekly ASL games that one thing he had heard on the list once ( I believe from Lowpe) was that the Allies were only 3 landings away from the Home Islands. Given the Navy they can field in late 44 - '45, that bears remembering... !!! One of the reasons for leaving India, I feel it is too easily trapped in '43 with all that allied air power.

So good news from the front. The Hammer fell on Roi Namur last turn.. turned out to be a larger hammer than I needed but good to land it with authority!!! I also had really really softened up the base before landing.... Not all the landing troops even landed, still had significant troops offshore. See combat replay below. Next stop will be softening up Maloelap. I have caught two AKLs trying to sneak in supplies, and will shortly mine the harbor heavily as Adm was pulling out troops / landing supplies by sub at Roi-Namur and I expect he will do the same for Maloelap.

---------------------------------

Ground combat at Roi-Namur (132,114)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 6554 troops, 17 guns, 155 vehicles, Assault Value = 443

Defending force 3415 troops, 61 guns, 103 vehicles, Assault Value = 43

Japanese adjusted assault: 286

Allied adjusted defense: 1

Japanese assault odds: 286 to 1 (fort level 1)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Roi-Namur !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: disruption(-), supply(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
335 casualties reported
Squads: 11 destroyed, 14 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Vehicles lost 27 (12 destroyed, 15 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
1490 casualties reported
Squads: 165 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 457 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 41 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 68 (68 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 115 (115 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units destroyed 4

Assaulting units:
14th Div /3
2nd Tank Rgt /1
56th Recon Regiment
8th Tank Rgt /2
22nd Ind. Engineer Regiment
33rd JNAF AF Unit /1

Defending units:
102nd(Sep) Infantry Regiment
102nd Combat Engineer Regiment
175th USAAF Base Force
205th Coast AA Regiment

[PaxMondo]

PaxMondo, I agree about the risks of defending too far forward, and getting bypassed with LCUs just left to rot. Adm Wa once said during our weekly ASL games that one thing he had heard on the list once ( I believe from Lowpe) was that the Allies were only 3 landings away from the Home Islands. Given the Navy they can field in late 44 - '45, that bears remembering... !!! One of the reasons for leaving India, I feel it is too easily trapped in '43 with all that allied air power.

First: yeah, I think it was Lowpe who said it, but in any case it is accurate. The IJ player always has to remember that in the late war. Those who doubt need to read rader vs greyjoy AAR. classic.

Having said that, India represents one of the best resource stops for IJ. It is always hard for me to avoid taking it. The alternative is OZ/NZ, but they are SO far away. The key for either one is the same as for SE Asia: you need to decide by Q343 what you will leave behind (assume lose permanently) and have an escape plan for everything else if you haven't actually moved them out. India can be worth +2M supply (HI+LI = ~5000/day + captured supply) to IJ ... think of it this way, that's the equivalent of 1000 1E fighter sorties/day (365K supply) PLUS 30 more size 30 Fighter factories (meaning 30 fighter/day production) and you still have +500K supply for other uses. Yeah, its a big deal. Plus you train up another 20 ID's to +80 exp if you do it right.

So, don't blow off your 3rd target as IJ ... success there (after CHI and DEI) can be the difference between a win and a draw.

So good news from the front. The Hammer fell on Roi Namur last turn.. turned out to be a larger hammer than I needed but good to land it with authority!!!

It does. And there is no such thing (IMO) as too big a hammer. To me, it just means my losses are minimized and my exp gains are maximized.

[PaxMondo]

Defending units:
102nd(Sep) Infantry Regiment

This was a good unit to kill. Cost him a lot of PP's to buy it out and its part of an early division. Now he will have to rebuild it from scratch and it will start with only like 35 exp. Whereas your units should all have gained 1 - 4 exp from the successful landing/attack. This is how you build up exp on your units.

[InHarmsWay]

The end of my India Dreams!!! Embarking the last of my units out of Diamond Harbor. India was a tough nut, as the Allies can bring in quite a few LCUs and plane formations quickly. I do think retreating now, while I can get everyone out without too much difficulty, was the best call. I want to preserve the 70 and 80+ exp units for later in the game. There have been some furballs over Diamond Harbor the past few days as Adm Wa realized what I was doing, current score is about 2 to 1 favoring the good guys! I lost 3 aces, but generated 6, so a net 3 gain! Only lost ~20 pilots, so fighting over my base helped.

Aug 02 1942 Calcutta.jpg (655.94 KiB) Viewed 613 times

Plan will be to retreat slowly toward Ledo, only when forced to, while building up the next MLR.

[InHarmsWay]

China update... slow days here, I am pushing to pocket the last of the free range Chinese units in Chengtu. The heavy Arty units that were in Calcutta and Manchuria are on their way to Chungking. I expect I will start bombardments around mid month. Adm Wa has done well in slowing me here in China as well! Darn him!!!

Aug 02 1942 China.jpg (885.42 KiB) Viewed 610 times

[PaxMondo]

China update... slow days here, I am pushing to pocket the last of the free range Chinese units in Chengtu. The heavy Arty units that were in Calcutta and Manchuria are on their way to Chungking. I expect I will start bombardments around mid month. Adm Wa has done well in slowing me here in China as well! Darn him!!!

Sorry to say, but yes, you are quite late for attacking CK ... you should still be able to pull it off, but he has effectively eliminated your ability to conduct a 3rd conquest (referring to your abandonment of India). It takes a great deal of skill, not to mention more than a sampling of luck, to successfully pull off a 3rd conquest before CHI is secure (CK and Chengtu taken). Yes, it is done is many AAR's, but when you look at who is doing it, they have extensive experience.

[InHarmsWay]

Brief update gentle readers. The exodus from India has been completed. The IJA ended up losing only a sacrificial construction btn, one air base eng unit, and a partial AA unit that was not fully loaded out of Diamond Harbor. Retreating is never fun, but I do believe I partially achieved my goal of killing allied ground units and causing casualties. As of Aug 9th, allied LCU VPs total over 15k. Looking back on the India adventure, here are my brief thoughts:

1. I came close to a much wider win, only missed taking Calcutta by a few days in the initial attack. However, I then paused too much, thinking I had time and from that, I gave up the initiative. I should have blitzed further into the heartland faster than I did, and should have brought more in the initial attack. Hindsight. Positives included achieving strategic surprise in the initial landing, as I believe Adm Wa only had a couple days of real warning I was coming.
2. My attempt to widen the front a month or so later by invading at Vizagapatnam, was again on too narrow a front and should have been followed by another landing or two elsewhere. Again, not enough in the initial attack. I also think I was too timid in not using shock attacks more.
3. The invasion of Ceylon initially worked well, catching several allied CVs and BBs at Colombo, however, I brought too little AV in LCU's to that invasion as well, causing it to stall. I then used KB to try and suppress Colombo, but lost too many good pilots there. The Japanese are just not suited to use air to suppress allied LCUs outside of the China theater. This includes Sally/Helens...

From the above three items, a clear trend shows up. Biggest lesson I learned is to bring more than you think you need, significantly more (this worked on the liberation of Roi-Namur a few weeks ago). Also pay more attention to prepping your attack, even during the invasion bonus time, as it still helps with taking the bases. Finally do not be timid the first 3-4 months, as the allies really do not have sufficient numbers to counterattack a determined Japanese thrust.

On a wider strategic view, attacking India is a serious commitment and will likely minimize attacks elsewhere in the Pacific. It is difficult to attack Darwin, PM, continue to envelop the DEI while successfully going the India route. My attack into Darwin suffered here from this (was never able to mount another landing elsewhere...), as well as limited the number of units I could use at PM, and further south, both areas that took too long to take. Long term this hamstrung the rest of the glorious Japanese plans for liberation of the Pacific. Finally, I should have used more signal intel confusion. Consider assigning multiple locations for various units to prep for, load Amph TFs with locations in one location, while setting up a waypoint near the real location, etc... something I did not do. I do know Adm Wa is a big fan of the intel monkey in WitP traker...

For good news! - The Ha-45 engines are now in production, and we should have the 500 engine bonus by the time the first George research factory gets to 30! The A6M5 zero will be in production in a week! I should have the KB CVs fully kitted out with the M5 zero by October. Plus I believe the A6M5 is better for defense with the higher speed and durability than the A6M3a.

All comments and suggestions are welcome!

[InHarmsWay]

Ah Gentle readers, it has been a minute in the War against the imperialistic Allies led by Adm Wa.... Currently August 19, 1942 and there has been a lull, but it will start picking up I believe soon. A quick recap is in order! First China, that slugfest... I had a bit of a supply constraint but that is now fixed. Chungking is out of supplies and my daily air attacks net ~20 destroyed and 20 disrupted units. The arty bombardments net ~50 destroyed and 30 disrupted units. I am about ready to order the first deliberate attack. Likely will be bloody. He is showing ~9000 AV in the hex, but likely most are reconstituted low exp units...

Aug 19 1942 China.jpg (852.43 KiB) Viewed 493 times

[InHarmsWay]

On to the liberation of the Marshall islands. I have been feeling better now that the first invasion at Roi-Namur went well. The softening up of Maloelap has gone well and I want to move quickly as I belive Adm Wa is evacuating as much as he can from Maloelap. I have seen many sub TFs shuttling into the base hex. My periodic Bombardment TFs each deliver 10-15 destroyed units and 10-15 disrupted units. Betty and Nell attacks also are causing losses, with only one bomber shot down the past week. My guess is the units there are just shells so I want to squish asap. This means moving before the 14th Division was ready so it was left out. A bit of a gamble but I think the allied units are hurting. I will soften up the invasion with a large bombardment TF.... KB is out of the picture, setting up an ambush... more on that later gentle readers...

Aug 19 1942 Marshall islands.jpg (263.71 KiB) Viewed 490 times

The Big Down Under:

Australia is relatively quiet, with the exception that Adm Wa is flying significant B17s out of Alice Springs and/ or Tennant Creek. The have shut down Daly Waters. I will not send units south into the land of bombing and low supplies. I lost several units in India that were effectively wiped out in open terrain. Note we do have a house rule that 4Es are not allowed to ground attack. Allied 2E bombers are nasty enough.

[InHarmsWay]

Now on the the fun stuff! The economy seems to be working as good as expected. Oil reserves are up to 384 days, resources are at 54 days, and fuel is at 259 days (per tracker). Several months ago, I did expand HI a bit at Singapore and Batavia (requires zero shipping of resources and I figured I would get 500 days of production out of them so worth it...). Is this something others do as well? I have never seen much in the way of HI expansion?

A6M5 Zero production went live a couple days ago, that is the last zero I plan to actively accelerate. I aim to have the KB fully outfitted with the A6M5 in the next month. I expect to get my first Judy in early November. The Val is rapidly becoming way too obsolete. Jills will likely show up February or if I am lucky January.

Georges and Franks are still a ways out there, but I should have the 500 engine research bonus in place early October '42. I have ~100 in inventory, and building 240/month. I will expand that as needed. (and it will likely be needed!!!).

Thinking farther ahead, I decided to set a trap for Adm Wa out near Ceylon. Here is my thinking.... he has alot of LCUs there now, from the India defense, taking Ceylon is necessary for any counterattack in that area, and he knows I have a Air HQ on the island. All that said, I know I will not be able to hold it if he tries, and my best bet is to catch the transports on arrival. I should be able to see them a few days out thanks to my new best friends Emily and Mavis. This is where the KB (6 CVs and 4 CVL/CVEs) is going. I hope to sit the KB about 3 days from Colombo and wait. Use some subs with glens as a screen as well. In the meantime, I am retaking the Marshalls, and figure I have one more big invasion. I think I will try the Aleutian Islands, likely in October as I need units prepped to 100%. Adm Wa has sent quite a few LCUs out towards India and I am hoping to catch a base or two without a proper garrison. We shall see, but planning has been started (along with many fake landings in Australia). To complete the mis-information campaign, I plan to grab several bases down in the SW pacific (Efate, Luganville, etc... build up lunga, etc..

On with the war!!!

[PaxMondo]

Now on the the fun stuff! The economy seems to be working as good as expected. Oil reserves are up to 384 days, resources are at 54 days, and fuel is at 259 days (per tracker). Several months ago, I did expand HI a bit at Singapore and Batavia (requires zero shipping of resources and I figured I would get 500 days of production out of them so worth it...). Is this something others do as well? I have never seen much in the way of HI expansion?

So, most IJ players who are not going for autovic 12/42 will make some HI expansion. And you hit the nail on the head with the decision as to where you do it: in the HI or somewhere like singers. Some go one way, some the other. In my mind, I don't think either are wrong mainly because of the unpredictable nature of the game war ... Sometimes the allies go all out in retaking the DEI and Singers, and other times, the do a total bypass and go for the HI. .... It is really more about predicting what your opponent is likely to do ...

A6M5 Zero production went live a couple days ago, that is the last zero I plan to actively accelerate. I aim to have the KB fully outfitted with the A6M5 in the next month. I expect to get my first Judy in early November. The Val is rapidly becoming way too obsolete. Jills will likely show up February or if I am lucky January.

Georges and Franks are still a ways out there, but I should have the 500 engine research bonus in place early October '42. I have ~100 in inventory, and building 240/month. I will expand that as needed. (and it will likely be needed!!!).

Val was obsolete by 1939 ... but you will hate the Judy because of its short legs. The allies will have 2 or 3 hex advantage on you. The Jill has the legs, but TB's are just such easy targets .... beginning in '43 any CV battle that you get into, you need to 'pin' the allied CV's somehow and then close to Judy range before the allies can hit you. This is tough to do ... but anything else you are just dead meat ....

George/Frank: the Eng bonus only helps IF you have at least one fully repaired RnD factory. IF you do, then the engine bonus will work miracles for you.

[InHarmsWay]

It has been several days now and I need to bring you gentle readers up to speed. The attack on Maloelap went well. I took the island on the first attack and have now begun the softening up of the final squatters in Namorik. I am hoping to land again here in a few days. I am also a few days out from a landing down in Luganville, hoping to make Adm Wa think I am pushing further south for my last attack. Another landing at Efate will occur in ~10 days. We will see if he takes the bait and tries something elsewhere... I am hoping he tries for Ceylon, where I hope to ambush the landing force... I realize it is a low odds chance, but if I can seriously impact his first serious counterattack, that may set the allies back long enough to get the Georges in play.

In China, the first attack was a disaster. I think it went in at a 1 to 3. About all I did was lower the forts from 6 to 5, while killing and wounding half of the Japanese army! Bombardments will continue, while supplies are being ferried at pace into China to rebuild... I am now tracking the AV of the Chinese army. It was 8950 right after the attack, currently from planes and arty, I have it down to 8365. I will likely wait again until it is below 4k.

Elsewhere the Pacific is quiet... too quiet. only the occasional sub sinking an AK on both sides...

[PaxMondo]

...
In China, the first attack was a disaster. I think it went in at a 1 to 3. About all I did was lower the forts from 6 to 5, while killing and wounding half of the Japanese army! Bombardments will continue, while supplies are being ferried at pace into China to rebuild... I am now tracking the AV of the Chinese army. It was 8950 right after the attack, currently from planes and arty, I have it down to 8365. I will likely wait again until it is below 4k.
...

This is normal 1st attack result. DON'T wait. Waiting is the allied path to success. You need to free up your troops for other operations.

Rotate your troops, recover the disablements and go again. Getting the forts down is the first goal. Each time you attack,
you need the forts to drop at least one level. So, 4 more attacks. Good news: each one will be less bloody for you as the forts drop. You've survived the worst attack. Get healthy ASAP and go again. Be sure to have enough ENG units to drop the forts each attack.

Once the forts are down, the CHI casualties will sky rocket and yours will drop. Remember that all CHI units killed return in ~45 days at 30% strength FREE of CHARGE to the allies. So, when you start killing UNITS (not troops) in CK, you have to press hard to finish CK off before they return even stronger than they were.

[InHarmsWay]

For those gentle readers interested in the current R&D of my fighters, here is the current status as of Sept 01, 1942. Note all factories are sized 30 except as noted.

A7M2 Sam - 13 Factories, with current completed repair of 10, 9, 9, 9, 7, 5, 5, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1
For the Sam, I only started with 6 factories... I highly recommend starting with at least 12 factories in research here. This is one of my biggest regrets! Listen to Pax Mondo's comment here!!!

Ki-84a Frank - 11 Factories, with current completed repair of 18, 18, 17, 13, 13, 12, 11, 10, 9, 9, 8. One of the 18 is from the initial starting factory of size 55. Again, I would probably add 1 or 2 additional research factories here. The Tojo is becoming obsolete quick (actually feels obsolete already)!

N1K1- J George - 12 Factories, with current completed repair of 27, 24, 22, 21, 20, 19, 18, 18, 18, 17, 16, 14. This one is looking good for me. I will have the Ha-45 engine bonus ready when the first factories comes online.

Ki-83 - 13 factories, with current completed repairs of 9, 8, 8, 8, 6, 6, 6, 6, 4, 4, 3, 3, 3. Again I started with ~9 factories, and later expanded to 13. Should have started with 12 factories here as well. In my last game, I got the Ki-83 early and it really did well against the massed allied planes.

Ha-45 Engines - in production with 7 factories, total rate of 250/month. Current inventory of 209. Engine bonus in effect mid October.
Ha-43 Engines - in research with 6 factories, current date of December 1944. Doing the math, I expect production to go into effect ~ Aug 43. Engine bonus available likely October '43. I may switch over a few more factories soon to Ha-43 production given it is so critical late war.

I am slowly building up the HA-45 engine factory size as well now that they are in production. I will likely need 400-500/month production rate I expect...

In Mikes "What was I thinking" thread, there was comments on DB planes by Pax Mondo. I am trying to accelerate the Judy line to some extent. I have 4 D4Y1 Judy factories recently all repaired (at 30). Just started repairing a fifth recently as well. Current availability of January 1943 (90% progress to December '43). I have been building out the Aichi Ha-60 engines to get the engine bonus to accelerate the D4Y2 and Y3 airframes. Aichi Ha-60 engine inventory is 249 (one factory at size 150). Timing wise, once I get the D4Y1 in production, I can switch 2 factories to the D4Y2 and then D4Y3. The Y3 is the one I want given the SR1 and range of 7/8. Yes, I am slowly upping my Mit-Ha-33 engine inventory to prepare of the D4Y3 research.