Combat Logs.
- 05-AL-Atlantic-CL.png (13.14 KiB) Viewed 145 times
- 05-AL-BOA-North-Atlantic-No-Search-No-Combat.png (204.68 KiB) Viewed 145 times
- 05-AL-BOA-Cp-St-Vincent-NS-NC.png (203.21 KiB) Viewed 145 times
A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Moderator: Shannon V. OKeets
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 8. Nov/Dec 1940. Allied #5. Atlantic.
Combat Logs. North Atlantic. Cape St. Vincent.
Combat Logs. North Atlantic. Cape St. Vincent.
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 8. Nov/Dec 1940. Allied #5. Med & West Africa.
Combat Logs.
West Med.
Strategic Bombing. Milan, Italy.
Morocco.
Combat Logs.
- 05-AL-Med-West-Africa-CL.png (37.51 KiB) Viewed 145 times
- 05-AL-Med-West-Med-NC.png (224.07 KiB) Viewed 145 times
- 05-AL-Med-CW-STRAT-Milan-Italy.png (399.84 KiB) Viewed 145 times
- 05-AL-West-Africa-Morocco.png (1.27 MiB) Viewed 145 times
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 8. Nov/Dec 1940. Allied #5. Western Front.
Combat Logs.
Map.
Combat Logs.
- 05-AL-Western-CL.png (26.31 KiB) Viewed 144 times
- 05-AL-Western-Front.png (2.08 MiB) Viewed 144 times
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 8. Nov/Dec 1940. Allied #5. Impulse Assessment.
Brief Assessments.
Running Grades.
Brief Assessments.
- 05-AL-Brief-Assessments.png (71.41 KiB) Viewed 144 times
- 05-AL-WAR.png (37.02 KiB) Viewed 144 times
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 8. Nov/Dec 1940. Axis #7. Impulse Planning.
Open WAR Directives & Japanese Production.
BREIFS.
Weather & Actions.
Open WAR Directives & Japanese Production.
- 07-AX-Open-WAR-Directives.png (76.21 KiB) Viewed 110 times
- 07-AX-JPN-Production.png (221.58 KiB) Viewed 110 times
- 07-AX-BRIEF.png (87.44 KiB) Viewed 110 times
- 07-AX-Weather-Actions.png (85.25 KiB) Viewed 110 times
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 8. Nov/Dec 1940. Axis #7. Pacific & Asian Theaters.
Combat Logs.
Japanese Coast. Naval Combat.
Strategic Bombing. Chungking, China.
Combat Logs.
- 07-AX-Pacific-Asian-CL.png (109.12 KiB) Viewed 109 times
- 07-Pacific-Japanese-Coast-NC.png (207.38 KiB) Viewed 109 times
- 07-Asian-JPN-STRAT-Chungking.png (406.71 KiB) Viewed 109 times
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 8. Nov/Dec 1940. Axis #7. Pacific & Asian Theaters.
Japanese Home Islands. Manchuria.
China.
Japanese Home Islands. Manchuria.
- 07-Pacific-Japanese-Home-Islands-Manchuria.png (1.84 MiB) Viewed 109 times
- 07-Asian-China.png (1.43 MiB) Viewed 109 times
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 8. Nov/Dec 1940. Axis #7. Med.
Combat Logs.
West Med. Naval Combat.
Map.
Combat Logs.
- 07-AX-Med-CL.png (63.74 KiB) Viewed 106 times
- 07-AX-Med-West-Med-NC.png (214.75 KiB) Viewed 106 times
- 07-Med.png (2.07 MiB) Viewed 106 times
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 8. Nov/Dec 1940. Axis #7. Atlantic & West African Theaters.
Atlantic. Combat Logs.
West African.
Combat Logs.
Morocco.
Atlantic. Combat Logs.
- 07-AX-Atlantic-CL.png (38.06 KiB) Viewed 106 times
Combat Logs.
- 07-AX-West-Africa-CL.png (10.27 KiB) Viewed 106 times
- 07-West-Africa-Morocco.png (1.23 MiB) Viewed 106 times
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 8. Nov/Dec 1940. Axis #7. Western Front.
Combat Logs.
Reich Air Defense Matrix.
(1) 4 fighter wings (currently) allocated to the Reich Air Defense Mission.
(2) 33 Defensive sites under the Reich Air Defense Umbrella including Italy.
(3) 46 defense assets (i.e., factories, CPs, ships) in those 33 sites.
(4) Current AD Umbrella covers 13 sites (39%) and 22 assets (48%).
(5) The fighter wing deployed to Magdeburg, Germany (NOT FRANCE) protects the most defensive assets (10).
France.
Combat Logs.
- 07-AX-Western-CL.png (21.78 KiB) Viewed 106 times
(1) 4 fighter wings (currently) allocated to the Reich Air Defense Mission.
(2) 33 Defensive sites under the Reich Air Defense Umbrella including Italy.
(3) 46 defense assets (i.e., factories, CPs, ships) in those 33 sites.
(4) Current AD Umbrella covers 13 sites (39%) and 22 assets (48%).
(5) The fighter wing deployed to Magdeburg, Germany (NOT FRANCE) protects the most defensive assets (10).
- 07-Western-Reich-AD-Matrix.png (59.85 KiB) Viewed 105 times
- 07-Western-France.png (1.78 MiB) Viewed 106 times
Last edited by rkr1958 on Fri Jul 11, 2025 5:58 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 8. Nov/Dec 1940. Axis #7. Impulse Assessment.
BRIEFS.
GRADES.
BRIEFS.
- 07-AX-BRIEF-Assessments.png (70.52 KiB) Viewed 106 times
- 07-AX-WAR-Grade.png (37.3 KiB) Viewed 106 times
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 8. Nov/Dec 1940. Allied #9. East Africa. War Planning & Analysis.
(1) I wanted to share some insight to the detailed analysis of the East African War Planning & Analysis Staff.
(2) Actually, it was another fun rabbit hole I went down; but the characterization above sounds more formal.
(3) I saw a chance for the AUS Terr to capture and; thus, conquer Italian Somaliland.
(4) The best odds would require a land move this impulse; but this late in the turn that would mean the CW would have to take a combine (again for 3 straight impulses this turn) and not be able to fix/optimize their convoy lines and production.
(5) There's a 35% chance (max) that this will be the last allied impulse of the turn.
(6) The CW could "roll the dice" and take a naval this impulse and wait; but I get ahead of myself.
(7) First, let's calculate the best case odds of taking (an empty) Mogadishu; which would be to move the OOS AUS Terr 3-hexes this impulse, reorganize and then next turn move into an empty Mogadishu.
(8) However; even in this best case there are two critical conditions required, which are (a) no ISO or AOI Terr built by Italy and (b) weather next turn allowing for enough movement for the newly reorg but still OOS AUS Terr to take Mogadishu.
(9) Let's address 8(a) first. Italy has an inf gearing limit of 1 and thus can only build 1 Terr this turn. Given 1 ISO & 1 AOI Terr out 9 It Terr; the odds of Italy not getting either Terr is 77.8%.
(10) Next is the weather; the desert hexes that the AUS Terr is moving through is in the Med. And the weather in desert hexes is 1 better than actual (i.e., blizzard -> snow, rain -> fine, storm -> rain, snow -> fine).
(11) Snow and fine allows the AUS Terr to make it to Mogadishu next turn. So only storm that equals rain in the desert does not. This means only JF weather rolls of 7 or 8 for ALL allied impulses would prevent the capture.
(12) Working through some rough numbers & assuming only 2 allied impulses the chance of getting one with weather allowing for the movement to capture is 96%. Actually, it's probably a bit higher; but for this best case analysis we'll go with 96%.
(13) So working the numbers; if the CW takes a combine & moves the AUS Terr this impulse, the CW has a chance = 77.8% x 96% = 75% of taking Mogadishu and conquering Italian Somaliland next turn. That's the best case estimate (i.e., 75%).
(14) Now, if CW waits (i.e., takes a naval); there's a 35% chance that the allies do indeed get another impulse this turn; which gives them 35% x 77.8% x 96% = 26.1%.
(15) BUT, there's more! There is a chance that Italy will not draw the ISO and AOI Terr this turn and next.
(16) The 26.1% includes the chance of not pulling either this turn.
(17) The chance of not pulling either next turn GIVEN Italy didn't pull either this turn, and now has an inf gearing of 2, is 47.6%; which means if the turn ends BEFORE the allies get another impulse there's an additional 65% x 47.6% = 30.9% chance that the CW can conquer It Somaliland.
(18) Putting those two numbers together gives the CW 26.1% + 30.9% = 57% chance of being able to conquer Somaliland if they DON"T move the AUS Terr this impulse.
(19) So the numbers for Whitehall are 75% vs 57% if you move the AUS Terr this impulse vs waiting.
(20) Now; Whitehall has to consider this difference in the context to all other priorities & theaters; especially given there's only a 35% chance of the allies getting another impulse after this and CW production is down 5 idle factories!
(1) I wanted to share some insight to the detailed analysis of the East African War Planning & Analysis Staff.
(2) Actually, it was another fun rabbit hole I went down; but the characterization above sounds more formal.
(3) I saw a chance for the AUS Terr to capture and; thus, conquer Italian Somaliland.
(4) The best odds would require a land move this impulse; but this late in the turn that would mean the CW would have to take a combine (again for 3 straight impulses this turn) and not be able to fix/optimize their convoy lines and production.
(5) There's a 35% chance (max) that this will be the last allied impulse of the turn.
(6) The CW could "roll the dice" and take a naval this impulse and wait; but I get ahead of myself.
(7) First, let's calculate the best case odds of taking (an empty) Mogadishu; which would be to move the OOS AUS Terr 3-hexes this impulse, reorganize and then next turn move into an empty Mogadishu.
(8) However; even in this best case there are two critical conditions required, which are (a) no ISO or AOI Terr built by Italy and (b) weather next turn allowing for enough movement for the newly reorg but still OOS AUS Terr to take Mogadishu.
(9) Let's address 8(a) first. Italy has an inf gearing limit of 1 and thus can only build 1 Terr this turn. Given 1 ISO & 1 AOI Terr out 9 It Terr; the odds of Italy not getting either Terr is 77.8%.
(10) Next is the weather; the desert hexes that the AUS Terr is moving through is in the Med. And the weather in desert hexes is 1 better than actual (i.e., blizzard -> snow, rain -> fine, storm -> rain, snow -> fine).
(11) Snow and fine allows the AUS Terr to make it to Mogadishu next turn. So only storm that equals rain in the desert does not. This means only JF weather rolls of 7 or 8 for ALL allied impulses would prevent the capture.
(12) Working through some rough numbers & assuming only 2 allied impulses the chance of getting one with weather allowing for the movement to capture is 96%. Actually, it's probably a bit higher; but for this best case analysis we'll go with 96%.
(13) So working the numbers; if the CW takes a combine & moves the AUS Terr this impulse, the CW has a chance = 77.8% x 96% = 75% of taking Mogadishu and conquering Italian Somaliland next turn. That's the best case estimate (i.e., 75%).
(14) Now, if CW waits (i.e., takes a naval); there's a 35% chance that the allies do indeed get another impulse this turn; which gives them 35% x 77.8% x 96% = 26.1%.
(15) BUT, there's more! There is a chance that Italy will not draw the ISO and AOI Terr this turn and next.
(16) The 26.1% includes the chance of not pulling either this turn.
(17) The chance of not pulling either next turn GIVEN Italy didn't pull either this turn, and now has an inf gearing of 2, is 47.6%; which means if the turn ends BEFORE the allies get another impulse there's an additional 65% x 47.6% = 30.9% chance that the CW can conquer It Somaliland.
(18) Putting those two numbers together gives the CW 26.1% + 30.9% = 57% chance of being able to conquer Somaliland if they DON"T move the AUS Terr this impulse.
(19) So the numbers for Whitehall are 75% vs 57% if you move the AUS Terr this impulse vs waiting.
(20) Now; Whitehall has to consider this difference in the context to all other priorities & theaters; especially given there's only a 35% chance of the allies getting another impulse after this and CW production is down 5 idle factories!
- 09-AL-East-Africa.png (1.14 MiB) Viewed 83 times
- 09-AL-West-Africa-IT-Terr-Pool.png (115.36 KiB) Viewed 83 times
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 8. Nov/Dec 1940. Allied #9. Impulse Planning.
Open Allied WAR Directives.
CW Production & Available CPs.
BREIFS.
Weather MAP & Actions.
Open Allied WAR Directives.
- 09-AL-Open-WAR.png (137.7 KiB) Viewed 82 times
- 09-Idle-CPs-CW-Production.png (133.07 KiB) Viewed 82 times
- 09-AL-BRIEF.png (72.45 KiB) Viewed 82 times
- 09-AL-Weather-Actions.png (132.58 KiB) Viewed 82 times
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 8. Nov/Dec 1940. Allied #9. Asian Theater.
Combat Logs.
Land Combat. W1-Harbin, Manchuria.
Manchuria.
China.
Combat Logs.
- 09-AL-Asian-CL.png (74.2 KiB) Viewed 54 times
- 09-AL-Asian-LC-W1-Harbin.png (296.82 KiB) Viewed 54 times
- 09-AL-Asian-Manchuria.png (1.99 MiB) Viewed 54 times
- 09-AL-Asian-China.png (1.58 MiB) Viewed 54 times
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 8. Nov/Dec 1940. Allied #9. East African.
(1) No activity (i.e., AUS Terr did NOT move).
(1) No activity (i.e., AUS Terr did NOT move).
- 09-AL-East-African.png (1.2 MiB) Viewed 54 times
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 8. Nov/Dec 1940. Allied #9. Atlantic.
Combat Logs.
Cape Basin.
North Atlantic.
Cape St. Vincent.
Combat Logs.
- 09-AL-Atlantic-CL.png (124.18 KiB) Viewed 54 times
- 09-AL-Atlantic-Cape-Basin.png (372.09 KiB) Viewed 54 times
- 09-AL-BOA-North-Atlantic-NC.png (229.13 KiB) Viewed 54 times
- 09-AL-BOA-CSV-NS-NC.png (186.43 KiB) Viewed 54 times
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 8. Nov/Dec 1940. Allied #9. West Africa.
Morocco.
Morocco.
- 09-AL-West-Africa-Morocco.png (1.15 MiB) Viewed 54 times
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 8. Nov/Dec 1940. Allied #9. Western Front.
Combat Logs.
Port Strike. Kiel.
Strategic Bombing. Lille, France.
Combat Logs.
- 09-AL-Western-CL.png (50.81 KiB) Viewed 54 times
- 09-AL-Western-RN-Port-Strike-Kiel.png (248.5 KiB) Viewed 54 times
- 09-AL-Western-STRAT-Lille-France.png (404.58 KiB) Viewed 54 times
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 8. Nov/Dec 1940. Allied #9. Western Front.
CW Production.
Pre NM.
Post NM.
France.
CW Production.
Pre NM.
- 09-Idle-CPs-CW-Production.png (133.07 KiB) Viewed 54 times
- 09-AL-Western-CW-Production-Post-NM.png (49.94 KiB) Viewed 54 times
- 09-AL-Western-France.png (1.59 MiB) Viewed 54 times
Ronnie
Re: A Competitive GW (Solo) Scenario by the Numbers.
Turn 8. Nov/Dec 1940. Allied #9. Impulse Assessment.
BRIEFS.
WAR Grades.
BRIEFS.
- 09-AL-Brief-Assessment.png (29.88 KiB) Viewed 53 times
- 09-AL-WAR-Grades.png (37.18 KiB) Viewed 53 times
Ronnie