Lawrence of Arabia Gambit for the Rising Sun

[Hirohito]

The genius of Lawrence of Arabia's tactics against the Ottoman's in WWI was that he followed the advice of two military geniuses, Sun Tzu "Attack that which can not be defended, and defend that which cannot be attacked", and Stonewall Jackson, "You must begule and confuse the enemy disappearing and reappearing at a time and place that are inconvenient for him". The British HQ in Egypt wanted Lawrence's Arabian army, mostly irregular cavalry and Bedouin on camel back, to attack fortifications in Yemen, Oman, the modern day Gulf States, and various points that controlled access to the Red Sea the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Aqabah (spelling?). Lawrence refused this order and instead launched one of the most brilliant campaigns in military history by attacking the supply lines to these fortifications, not the fortifications themselves. The object was not to BREAK the supply lines, but to make sending supplies down them VERY expensive. The Ottomans tied up hundreds of thousands of troops in this resupply effort of fortifications that were garrassoned by few troops than the resupply troops. Lawrences force would swoop down on supply troops or engineering battallions who were trying to repair previous damage to rail lines, bridges, roads, ports, etc, disperse them, disappear and then hit somewhere else.

When Lawrence did finally attack fortified positions he did so deep inside Ottoman territory and totally cut off the troops at the front. Lawrence reinforced by the famed Australian light horse.

The Japanese player can use the same strategy to beat the white eyes.

I wouldn't even invade the Phillipines, why bother? You can surround them with planes and cut any resupply efforts to pieces. Special strike force TFs composed of fast moving CLs and DDs can make short work of resupply convoys. Same goes with Papua New Guinea, don't bother attacking it directly. Instead, take out the islands to the west of papua new guines, basically draw a line due south from Ponape and conquer every island in that line culminating with New Zealand. This includes Guadalcanal, Rennel Island, Santa Cruz, Espirito Santo, Efate, New Calendonia, and New Zealand. Send engineers with the invasion forces and build up air fields as quickly as possible and put as many task force attack air units as you can spare, along with special task forces made up of fast ships to attack supply convoys.

Don't attack Wake Island, it is too far away to matter, it is a waste of time and resources. Send ALL carriers on the PH exbidition broken up into three task forces, task force A to concentrate on the ships in harbor, task force B to concentrate on the airfields and task force C to concentrate on the port facilities. Send extra replenishment ships so that the PH exbition can stay on station until there are no targets left at PH, give Nagumo an order, "come back with a large crater where PH used to be, or don't come back".

Take out Midway, Johson Island, Palmyra Island, Christmas Island, Canton Island, Nassau Island and Cook Island and any ancillary islands in between on turn 1, or turn 2 if you are using the silly no Japanese attacks outside of PH on turn 1, it won't matter, none of these places can hold on turn 2 either.

Now take out the chain of islands in the DEI that encircle Borneo and Celanese Island (Kendari), this would be the line Morotai, Halmahera, Waigen Island, Sorong, Ambon Island, Tenimbar Island, Timor, Flores, Soembawa, Bali, Java, and Sumatra. Coming around this way you don't even "need" to invade Malaya and Singapore, why bother? Just go around. Now you are ready to "Lawrencize" India. Hit Andaman Island, Ceylon, and Addu Island, and you can take Akyab in reverse. Use strong air units in Sumatra, Indochina, and Siam to neutralize the air units in Malaya and Burma. Now you can starve the Phillipines, Australia, Malaya, Singapore, Burma, and India and invade them at your leisure.

The smoking crater that is PH should be hit with the Battleships of the combined fleet, why leave them sitting idle in the crucial first days of the war on infamy day +2 or +3, you also should consider an amphabiious/paratroop invasion of the Hawaian Islands, you'll probably get creamed at Pearl but you might take Hawaii, Kaui, or Maui. Then you can move air units and surface ships there and play havoc with the resupply, reconstruction effort that must get under way.

Because you are going to starve the Burma and India forces out and you know that you are going to take "the hump" base and close the Burma road you can divert troops away from China to a more lucrative endeavor elsewhere, the Alaska gambit.

We all know that invading the west coast by sea is controlled suicide. But, a surprise attack on the aleutians, Dutch Harbor, Anchorage and Juneau on infamy day +2 or +3 will catch the Allied player in the awkward position of having too few defenders, no planes and no ships. Now, troops which are not being wasted invading every single little island and atoll in the pacific, the Phillipines, Malaya, Singapore, Burma, and troops freed up from the "on the defensive for now" posture in China can slam into Fairbanks and Juneau and can approach the west coast from the north, SURPRISE. The masses of planes guarding the west coast won't be much help against tanks overruning their bases.

The best thing about this approach is the Allied player will be totally befuddled. You won't be attacking anything that he is defending, ala Dr. Sun Tzu, "attack that which cannot be defended. Defend that which cannot be attacked." It won't even appear tot he allied player that you are fighting the same war he is, at first. Then when all his "important" colonies are withering away on the vine for lack of supplies and all his efforts are going into resupply, and the losses are mounting and mounting, and he is diverting all his ground forces to defending the west coast of good ole USA as you slam into indefensible position after indefensible position because the defenders lack the luxury items like food, ammo, guns, planes, ships, fuel, etc, etc, you will be happy knowing you followed Dr Tzu's other maxim, "Bad generals fight to win, good generals win, then fight".

I don't mind sharing this strategy, because I don't hink you could defend against it, even if you know I am using it.

Hirohito

[mogami]

Hi, Bring it on. Where does all this stuff come from? What do you do if it rains in KB hex the same turn the entire USN moves there?

The silly turn 1 rule is becasue the Japanese did not have invisable flying boats. Load the troops and begin moving on turn 2. If you need the turn 1 exploit the plan is silly not the restrictions against flying Japanese TF.

If you attack me where I am not defending it means I don't care. I promise not to attack where I can't

Over all you have the right idea. That is a good thing (starving out places you cannot make frontal attacks against)

But without PI it will be Japan that starves first. Your transports can not reach home without going through air space you leave behind. You have to commit your airforce to counter and everything else falls down.

You will be out of supply by Mar 42 with out taking PI.

[WiTP_Dude]

Very interesting plan! My only concern is that you may be spreading yourself too thin. Do you really have enough IJN aircraft to lock everything down effectively? Also how are you going to get all your short range IJA aircraft into action without invading Malay or the Phillipines?

[Hirohito]

Where does all what stuff come from?

You mean the USN that was sunk at PH? If you send your three CVs out to meet me while I sit off shore where I have every carrier in the Japanese navy plus the combined fleet, I'll take my chances. If you send what is left of your surface ships from PH, same thing. I am assuming here that I can modify the makeup of the PH task force.

Nagumo made a serious mistake in not allowing the third wave, or a possible fourth wave. Nagumo was not an airman, he was a sailor. He said during the attack that he was very nervous, the airmen were pushing for a third wave, Nagumo kept looking over his shoulder, at what? The 3 US CVs? The US air force that was in flames? Nagumo lost his nerve. He should have stayed on station raining down bombs on PH until he had no more bombs to send. Then the Combined Fleet should have moved in and bombarded, followed up three days later by amphibious and paratroop landings on the outer islands. This attack might have failed ultimately, it might have encurred serious losses, but the damage to PH would have been incalculable and the USN would have been out of action far longer. But, if the landings succeeded, it was a risk that should have been taken. You can always call of the combined fleet and the landings if the air raid does not go as planned.

The decision to attack the USA was a go for broke act, the raid on PH should have also been go for broke.

But, even if the raid on PH fails miserably, even if the combined fleet gets beaten up, the amphibious forces are sunk offshore, the carrier force gets beaten up, the other parts of Lawrences gambit will go forward and the damage inflicted on the USN in this kiknd of all or nothing, toe to toe slugfest will make it very difficult for the USN to break the stranglehold before Australia, the Phillipines, Malaya, Singapore, Papua New Guinea, Borneo, Celebes, Burma, and India fall, oh, and there is that little matter of the invasion of the US west coast from the north to deal with.

Hirohito

IMHO

[Hirohito]

The air space in PI controlled by what planes? I can eliminate the air forces in PI, in the first few days of the war, now to get the planes to PI you have to go through my air space. Even if you get them there for the first six months of the war you will be sending up planes that I easily shoot out of the sky. Besides you just won't have enough squandrons to go around. My air bases on Midway, Johnson Island, Palmyra Island, Christmas Island, and the Alaskan panhandle are going to keep you busy trying to defend the west coast and what is left of Hawaii.

If the air space in PI does become too pesky, I can always invade later. Establishing the gauntlet in the first phase of the war that all allied shipping must pass through is the important point.

Hirohito

PS
The quote is not, "Attack that which is not being defended", the quote is "Attack that which cannot BE defended". Very different.

[esteban]

I think you can safely bottle up the Americans in Bataan or Manila if you want, but if you leave the Americans in charge of the resource centers on PI, they will have enough supplies that they can rebuild and use their air force to attack your convoys.

[Raverdave]

Well Hirohito, you could always test you strategy by running a PBEM against someone (other than the AI).

[Central Blue]

Hirohito,

India won't starve. Australia would be close to starving but they do produce some oil. If you aren't attacking them it doesn't matter.

You can have Alaska and Prince Rupert. The weather is terrible there, and they won't discover oil for years... and I don't mind fighting the early war on interior lines if I must. Certainly a lot easier than arranging to ship everybody accross the Pacific.

When the next patch comes out I'll be glad to try you in a PBEM game. I've never done that before, but I think I can figure it out.

[mogami]

ORIGINAL: Hirohito

The air space in PI controlled by what planes? I can eliminate the air forces in PI, in the first few days of the war, now to get the planes to PI you have to go through my air space. Even if you get them there for the first six months of the war you will be sending up planes that I easily shoot out of the sky. Besides you just won't have enough squandrons to go around. My air bases on Midway, Johnson Island, Palmyra Island, Christmas Island, and the Alaskan panhandle are going to keep you busy trying to defend the west coast and what is left of Hawaii.

If the air space in PI does become too pesky, I can always invade later. Establishing the gauntlet in the first phase of the war that all allied shipping must pass through is the important point.

Hirohito

PS
The quote is not, "Attack that which is not being defended", the quote is "Attack that which cannot BE defended". Very different.

Hi, Mandark Laugh (I hope you know what a Mandark laugh sounds like) Where does this great air force come from? And how are you going to supply it? You will be out of supply by March 42.

You don't have the Navy to cover the line you are talking about. B-17 can fly to Pearl Harbor from West Coast. Japanese bombers that can reach Pearl Harbor will be unescorted.
Midway has a wonderful airfield you can place 300 aircraft there. They will eat supply you don't have and you will need a third of the fleet to always be on guard and the USN will surround the base with submarines.

Really lets run a PBEM from Dec 7 1941 till you give up. But you can't use your exploit of turn 1. You have to load the ships on turn 2. (I'll let you load on turn 1 but you have to stay at least 4 hexes to the west of Wake and move from there. Or if you really want to exploit the move you have to turn off turn 1 surprise and allow me to give orders.
(Hint: refueling a CV at sea does not raise the number of air missions it can fly. You have to also have loaded AE in TF and a port to load from so you need a pile of supply at Midway.


PS my quote. Ignore what you cannot defend and retake it later if it is worth the bother.

[dtravel]

Why are the words "The Banana has a new plan!" running thru my mind? [&:]
(And some are complaining that WiTP players are hyper-aggressive. Don't know where they get that idea.)

[:D][:D]

Must have an AAR if you guys do this. Should be an interesting read.

[brisd]

Some interesting ideas but PH won't be destroyed (by your carriers, they aren't that powerful in this game) without invading it and that will be costly in ships/planes/troops. Take out PI quickly because the recon planes spot your tf's and allow the allies to target with their subs. Bombers based there can hurt you and the forces you destroy are worth many VP's. The right strategy is not to attack where the enemy isn't, but to attack with favorable odds when and where YOU want. I do think cutting off Australia or India are viable strategies but that Alaska gambit won't work to conquer USA in WITP. The designers have made it impossible to conquer the lower 48 states (due to teleporting US reinforcements) and Alaska is not strategic in itself.

[sveint]

Good luck is all I can say.

The merit of his plan is that you CAN bypass local garrisons, I'll give him that. The India plan and especially the South Eastern islands are bound to be costly failures though, no way Japan can hold them.

[mogami]

Hi, The thing I find most amazing about any Japanese plan that extends beyond May 1942 is how such planning is even possible before the planner knows what he will have to use.

Before Japan captures Palembang and the other major resource/oil centers planners do not know if
1. The SRA will even be providing oil and resource
2. How much will it provide
3. how much supply will be required to repair the damage.

Capture Palembang and that next door resource center in 100 percent damaged condition and see what happens to your operational plans for mid 1942.
Do people plan such massive operations before they even know what their fuel and supply levels will be?

[caslug]

One thing I notice in WITP vs UV is supply deficit problem for japan, because in UV Truk had essentially unlimited supply. That more than shipping or strategy rein in my offensive plan in the first 90 days. At least until you capture some major resource centers (Palampang, Kendari, Balikan, etc.,). Isolating the PI is a good cost effective strategy, it takes maybe two division plus support to push the US/PI troops into bataan once there you can pretty leave them to starve until may 42. Singapore is much more important to get early I think. Then once you have that you can cleared out the DEI pretty fast, you'll have decent bump in supply and resources to consider major offensive in Burma and pacific theater & maybe even China. The top five major resouce center in DEI generate 3600 resouces points(3600 supply points) a day.

Playing WITP, I have a much better understanding on why historically did what she did the first 6 mos. They had to clear out the SRA first before turning there attention toward south & central pacific. Because they need the supply & resources without resources you can't produce supply.

[WiTP_Dude]

I think your one major flaw is that you think you can cover from Alaska to New Zealand with the IJN PLUS isolate PI and Malay with a ring of aircraft and ships PLUS "Lawrencize" India and Burma with yet more ships and aircraft. Not going to happen.

Your supply lines will be very long and pass through enemy controlled air space. Even in a traditional game the bombers in the DEI and PI can be deadly. Let them run wild and they will be sinking ships by the dozen.

You need the oil and resources (especially the resources) of the DEI. If you don't get these by the spring you will be high and dry. So you'll have no choice but to divert ships, aircraft, and men to this operation. This will leave your Alaska to New Zealand defenses too weak to withstand an early counterattack.

[mogami]

Hi, How does Alaska do any thing but hurt the USA players pride? It not on his supply line to Pacific. It produces nothing. Once the USA gets tired of seeing the Japanese flags there he will come up with a lot of fire power.

The bases forward are also good to annoy the allied player. But he can take them 1 at a time when he is ready. If you are building them then the rear bases are not being prepared. (I mean the bases the Allied player wants to have by the time he gets B-29 in numbers)

Static defense always fails to mobile offensive. Japan does not have the means to place strength in multiple layers from Alsaka to New Zealand. Once the Allied player punches a hole in the line the rest will begin to starve. The allied player does not have to hurry.
I just don't see where this plan kills Allied troops/ships/planes at rates exceeding what Japan will lose.

I have a hard time seeing how Japan can make such a plan from the start.

In Dec 1941 the Japanese player knows where the Allied forces he has to defeat in the SRA are located. He knows there material condition and is able to quickly completly isolate the enemy and destroy it one piece at a time.
What the Japanese player does not know is the dispostion of Allied troops as they will exist in May 1942 and beyond. He does not even know his own supply and material conditions yet.

A plan has to have an objective. Just claiming a few islands does nothing. You don't force the enemy to do anything in return. He can choose his own time to respond. And since the bases are all out of range of one another Japan has to spread out to cover it all. I'm not convinced Japan can hold any one of these bases longer then 6 months if the Allied player decides to throw him out. THe only things that limit the Allied player are

1. Lack of assault transports. But this is true where ever Japan makes it's defense line but the closer to Allied base a Japanese target is the less the transport shortage matters. (Transports used to retake Johnson can unload the assault and go pick up the support troops in less then 10 days)

2. USN CV not ready to engage in carrier battle before mid 1942. (But Johnson is in LBA range)

3. Before he understands Japanese intentions for phase two the Allies must be very cautious. If Japan reveals their long term war aims in Dec 1941 the Allies can plan away.

[ctid98]

I agree that this strategy is doomed to failure, but ultimately 99% of Japanese strategies are anyway! I think its good that people are willing to come up with new ways to put off the inevitable.

Good luck to you, you're going to need it. [:D]

[mogami]

Hi,

1 Drop a Paratroop Army onto USA from 100,000 Zepplins.
2 Walk backwards from China to India telling the Allies you are retreating
3. Sue for peace on Dec 7 1941 but refuse to sign the paper before March 1946
4. Hide
5. Build nothing but mines and mine the entire Pacific Ocean from PH to Tokyo.
6. Sink Saipan Tinian and Guam.
7. Drop beer on the Aussies, the Brits and the Dutch and get them to see things your way.
8. Convince the Soviets that the USA is planning to invade them.
9. Invest in American factories. You'll lose the war but have a lot of money afterwards.
10. Send out 10,000 turn 1 in PBEM and then never answer the return emails. All games will be forever stuck with Japan at her peak.

[Captain Cruft]

I'm not sure that the esrtwhile Emperor H has actually got the game or read the manual yet ...

FWIW I'd go along with the by-passing empty bases bit.

[UncleBuck]

I can see part of Hirohito's plan working but it would take a house rule. This woudl be that the U.S. does not enter the war on Dec. 7th. The Japanese activate the US if they invade a US possesion, or attack US facilities. To this end, on turn 2 the US woudl have to order all of the US ships out of DEI. The Japanese woudl then attack DEI and what not, but not any US facilities. The rule woudl be if they hold off the U.S. enters the war on Jan. 15 1942. This does not mean that the U.S. does not build up forces, build bases etc. Just no offensive action against Japan. The Allied player woudl be left to play with just the DEI, Burma, India and Austrailia for 30 days.

This is the only way I can see Hirhitos plan working. Taking all of hte Marshal , Admiralty and Caroline Islands would work. They woudl be able to hold them, but that is at eh expense of losing the PI. How much Supply, Aircraft and troops can you get into P.I. in 30 days? Sicne the U.S. woudl be un-molested all those utlying fields and supply coudl be gathered together to Luzon, all teh bases fortified, and lots of mines. Since Pearl Harbor didn't happen, you will have lots of BB's to play with, as well as an abundance of escort vessels.

It could work and give JP enough of a lead to win, but it is still a losing proposition. Burma, China, and India can be much tougher than I beleive Hirohito realizes. Other than amphib ops along the coast, which will require either a slow pace to get LBA into position or a significant portion if not all of your carreirs force to give cover, the rest of the attack is over land, with poor trails and roads. This Kills troops. The Indians and Burmese can give ground to fortify special areas. there are several cities that recive multiple bonuses for defense. the woudl fortify, have limited approach hexes and have a river crossing for you to negotiate. All Bad Ju-Ju for an attacking enemy. The japanese can pin them back but I do not think it is feasible to conquer India versus a human.

WOuld be a fun game however. Let me know if anyone would like to try this set up. I woudl like ot play ALlies.

UB