PBEM - Historical Limits: Thayne (allied) vs. SeaWolF K (Japan)

[Thayne]

Here's the story.

I got an email from SeaWolF K, saying that he liked my game philosophy and asking me if I would be interested in a PBEM game -- the fact that I impose all sorts of limits based on what I think would make sense from the commander's point of view.

I figured that either (1) he actually had the same game philosophy and wanted to play an opponent who would not exploit game mechanics in the course of the game, or (2) he was looking for somebody who could be easily sliced into itsy, bitsy pieces and fed to the fish.

Game Parameters:

Scenario 15

Historical First Turn: ON
December 7th Surprise: ON
Japanese Submarine Doctrine: ON
Allied Sub Doctrine: ON
Allied Damage Control Advantage: ON
Fog of War: ON
Advanced Weather Effect: ON

Cycle: 1 day per turn

Reinforcements: Extreme variability

In addition, we have discussed and agreed to a number of house rules.

The first rule is not really a rule, but a mode of thought. We are going to look at our moves from the point of view of a commander in the field and do what, in our best judgment, would make sense to them. We are not going to mini-max the game mechanics or seek to exploit weaknesses in the model.

Some specific restrictions that I will be working are include:

(1) Allied units, except those in a "combat zone" such as Philippines, China, and Malaya, will not be able to move -- nor will they be able to change their "future Objective" setting, until December 15, 1941.

(2) No allied port may begin loading of more than ((Game turn) - 1) ships. All US West Coast ports combined equals 1 port for purposes of this rule. This simulates the need for the United States to get its war machinery wound up.

(3) All allied units not in their native country must start the game with "Do not accept replacements" until they have a line of communication (road or rail, not trail) to a port that has been visited by fully loaded transport from USWest Coast or Karachi. Karachi cannot be used to satisfy this requirement for Commonwealth and British units until December 22, 1941.

(4) Chinese units not assigned to Southeast Asia headquarters at the start of the war must stay in China.


In addition, I have adopted additional restrictions that SeaWolF K does not know about. For example:

• The AVG will immediately move to a remote airbase and train until December 21, 1941. (The AVG did not fly its first combat mission until that date.)

• Given the "Hitler First" philosophy, Wasp was an Atlantic carrier brought into the Pacific to replace allied losses at Coral Sea and Midway. So, if none of the original 4 carriers are sunk or badly damaged, this carrier remains in moth balls on the USA West Coast until January 1, 1943 -- the successful completion of Operation Torch.

Again, I remind you, SeaWolF K knows nothing about these restrictions. And there are others.

Of course, there are billions and billions of rules that could be adopted for historical accuracy. However, our goal really is not accuracy, but historical rationality. This game, when it is done, should be able to closely approximate an actual alternative to the War in the Pacific.

I will seek to keep you informed of our progress in this battle if you are interested. I do not intend to abandon my Thayne News Campaign Reports -- I can play turns in that game while I am waiting for SeaWolF K to complete his turns in this game. However, the pace of Thayne News Campaign Reports will almost certainly slow down a bit.

Please, enjoy.

Thayne

[Alikchi2]

A PBEM AAR by Thayne! This should be rather intense. Good luck. I'll be following. [:)]

But.. Allied and IJN sub doctrines? Aren't they a bit.. broken?

[Thayne]

[font="Courier New"]Henry:

First a quick note. I am having a copy of this and all future reports placed in a folder where key staff, those possessing sufficient clearance, will have access to them.

As I write this, I am flying over Las Vegas on my way to San Francisco in that PBY you said was to be my new office.

I have to say, as I look out the window, if I was an enemy bomber, I would have a field day right now. The city is lit up like a Christmas Tree. I have no trouble picking out key locations, even given my limited knowledge of the area.

A short while ago, we flew over Hoover Dam. Now, there is an inviting target. I can easily imagine dropping a few sticks of bombs on that.

I have to say, Henry, I hate war. I hate the mentality that says that destroying something like Hoover Dam is a good idea. But, war has been forced upon us, and I have no intention whatsoever of allowing people who think that way to win the day.

Anyway, I wanted to tell you that I have heard from most of the theater commanders by now. I am afraid that most of them do not see much wisdom in your decision to name me your Assistant Secretary in Charge of the Pacific Theater.

Sure, they were polite. However, trust me, years in the diplomatic service has trained me to read between the lines. Their letters of congratulations and praise put a thin varnish over the resentment that I know sits just below the surface.

I have told them that I recognize that I am no military expert, and I am not going to be second-guessing their decisions. In fact, I told them not to be looking over their shoulder at me, but to focus on fighting the Japanese instead. I'm here mostly to make it easier for the different theater commanders to talk to each other, and to their colleagues in other countries. It is a job that is tailor made for a career diplomat.

Don't worry, Henry. I know what I am doing. Smoothing ruffled feathers is what I do for a living.


Damage Report

I'm not going to bore you with things you already know. Just an update.

Wake Island still holds out. Japan has dropped 2100 troops on the island so far, compared to our 1900. According to reports, the Marines there punched a hole in a light cruiser, but nothing serious.

I'll be honest, I hope Japan takes the place. If not, public opinion is going to demand that we send in a rescue team. Japan can sit its carriers just outside of airplane range and destroy us as we go by.

Public opinion makes a pathetically poor General.


Naval Losses (at Pearl Harbor unless otherwise noted):

Sunk:
• CA New Orleans
• PT-21

Critical Damage:
• BB Maryland
• MSW Penguin (at Guam)

Extensive Damage:
• BB Tennessee

Heavy Damage:
• BB West Virginia
• BB California

Moderate Damage:
• BB Nevada
• BB Arizona
• BB Pennsylvania
• BB Oklahoma
• DD Jarvis
• DD Cummings
• DM Prebble

Minor Damage:
• SS Cachalot


Planes Lost (Theater Wide):

75 P-40 Tomahawks
33 PBY Catalinas
27 P-36A Mohawks
17 P-26A
16 P-40E Warhawks
15 B-18A Bolo
12 A-20 Boston
11 P-35A

45 Other Misc. Aircraft Types

251 Airplanes total destroyed


Territory Lost

Guam
Batan Island

Oh, by the way. I received an intelligence cable today.

JAPAN PLANNING ASSAULT ON GUAM. SUGGEST WARNING ISLAND TO PREPARE FOR IMMINENT ATTACK.

I got this 3 hours after Guam surrendered.


Actions

(1) All the usual stuff -- all leaves are cancelled, all soldiers are ordered to report to duty as soon as possible, that kind of stuff. Front-line units are being told to dig in and wait for further orders.

(2) Hawaii: Admiral Kimmel has recalled his carriers. He's also got reports of submarines in Hawaiian waters so he is sending out some minesweeper patrols to clear them out -- hopefully chase them away before the carriers go through.

(3) South Pacific: I've given approval for TF1007, which is half way to Australia with the 26th USA FA Brigade, to continue to Australia, but to keep out of range of Japanese airplanes in the Marshall Islands.

(4) Philippines I saved the best for last, Henry. I want to get rid of McArthur tomorrow. Short was surprised at Pearl Harbor. McArthur had known for hours that Japan was going to attack. When the attack came, all he could muster for combat air patrol was twelve fighters. Most of his fighters were destroyed on the ground. There has to be accountability in this army, Henry. McArthur will be the first. Please give me the name of a suitable replacement some time tomorrow and I will make the announcement.

Everybody else is pretty much waiting for Roosevelt and Churchill to decide what they want to do. It's going to take a couple days to get all the troops assembled, ammunition handed out, and get everybody mobilized, even for active duty units.


Reinforcement Schedule

I've got the list of when I can expect reinforcements. I understand the "Hitler First" philosophy, but, really, I'm not getting much to fight with here. From what I have been told, I can expect the following:

Air Unit Reinforcements, December

84 Squadron (16 x Blenheim IV) in India; Dec. 19
232 Squadron (16 x Hurricane) in India; Dec. 27
8th Fighter Group (72 x P-39D Aircobra) in U.S.; Dec. 30

New Ships Arriving Next 7 Days

DMS Lamberton, Pearl Harbor; Dec. 9
DMS Boggs, Pearl Harbor; Dec. 13
DMS Hovey, Pearl Harbor; Dec. 14
TK Gufgen, San Francisco; Dec. 16
AK Wallingford, San Francisco; Dec. 17
AK American Packer, San Francisco; Dec. 17

Ground Units Reinforcements, December

18th UK Division, India; Dec. 25
125th USA RCT, USA; Dec. 26
225 Group RAF, India; Dec. 27
2nd USMC Para. Btln, USA; Dec 29
111th Aviation Rgt, USA; Dec 31

Really, Henry, I'm being forced to do a lot with very little until Christmas. That is a pretty harsh request.

Well, I suspect that griping is not going to get anything changed. I'll do my best.

I'm meeting with General Bachurek, commander of allied forces in the US West Coast, in San Francisco tomorrow to discuss the west coast defense. Hopefully, we'll start to get rolling on some of this stuff.

I'll check in tomorrow night.

Thayne[/font]

[stonefoot]

Great Start, Another must read AAR. [&o][&o][&o]

[Thayne]

I would like a volunteer from the studio audience.

Would some kind reader care to create a link from this AAR to SeaWolF K's AAR on the same game, and on his back to here, so that readers can easily go from one to the other?

And to create a new link, from time to time (not too often -- just every once in a while) that will take a reader from one AAR to the other at the same day?

I would consider it a kindness.

Thayne

[WhoCares]

Put those links into your signatures - this way you just have to check the signature box with your posts once in a while.
Anyway, Link: SeaWolF K thread

[Captain Cruft]

Excellent. I wish you both the best of luck.

[Terminus Est]

ORIGINAL: WhoCares

Put those links into your signatures - this way you just have to check the signature box with your posts once in a while.

I think Thayne and Seawolf prevent themselves from reading each other's AAR. Since to link from one AAR to the other on the same day, you need to read it first, that might be the reason Thayne asks for a "neutral" to do it.

[Thayne]

ORIGINAL: Terminus Est
I think Thayne and Seawolf prevent themselves from reading each other's AAR. Since to link from one AAR to the other on the same day, you need to read it first, that might be the reason Thayne asks for a "neutral" to do it.

That is exactly right.

I am not permitted to read his -- and he is certainly not permitted to read mine.

But, readers are permitted to read both, and I am thinking that cross-linking the two threads from time to time would be useful. (For example, linking my December 7 to his, then linking my December 21st to his December 21st, etc. -- every two game weeks or so.)

I don't think that putting it in my signature would work, because it would not link at to the coresponding day on the other thread.

It's just an idea -- if somebody has such an inclination.

[WhoCares]

Of course you must not read each others thread. That does not mean that you can't link to it [;)] And you can always update those links by sending an update via pm/email.
Maybe it is even possible to link to single post via IDs, instead of just linking the page. This way it might be possible to create links like 'My Day 1' 'His Day 1'...

[Thayne]

ORIGINAL: WhoCares

Of course you must not read each others thread. That does not mean that you can't link to it [;)] And you can always update those links by sending an update via pm/email.
Maybe it is even possible to link to single post via IDs, instead of just linking the page. This way it might be possible to create links like 'My Day 1' 'His Day 1'...

Ah . . . a wise option. I like this . . . if I can figure out how to do it.

[Thayne]

[font="Courier New"]Monday, December 8, 1941

Dear Henry:

You did not tell me that taking a little time off meant working only 18 hours. I got up at a little after 5:00, and, here it is nearly midnight.

When we came in last night, I had the pilot come in from the west, over the Golden Gate Bridge, so I could see the bay from the sea and the way a ship would see it. We flew toward the lighthouse on Alcatraz, then banked right and landed at Crissy Field, next to the Presidio.

That's where I spent the night. I figured that I would be spending a lot of time on this plane, so I set up a cot. I figure that I'll be catching sleep when I can.

I can understand the decision against keeping Crissy Field as a first-line airbase. It's too close to the water; too easy to shell or to land on.

Well, on to business.


Strategic Overview

I have a fear that future historians will read this section and consider it one of the funniest things ever read. However, historians have the advantage of hindsight. All I can do is describe the situation as it appears from where I sit, on this airfield in San Francisco Bay.

The way I see it, the Philippines is the main objective. All of the other attacks are attempts to secure the flanks. Japan wants to cut off aid from America, so they take Guam and Wake and cripple our fleet at Pearl Harbor. They also want to make sure that the British do not get involved, so they attack Malaya as a way of diverting the British attention.

I've spoken to General Percival, who is in charge of the army at Malaya. He assures me that the attack on Khota Bharu is not to be taken seriously. Japan is trying to take an airbase which it can use to try to close the Macassar Straight, he says. I'll trust him to handle that issue.

As for the Philippines, we agreed before the war started that it would have to be sacrificed. The real battle will be in the Dutch East Indies. That is where I am having our forces consolidate.

The Dutch are not cooperating, however. I have spoken to them about shifting some of their troops around. They report that they are content to leave them where they are. For some reason, they are being rather dogmatic about this. I am doing my best to persuade them to shift some units around.

Anyway, that is the overall view. For spacifics:


Losses

Ships

• MSW Penguin sank at Guam
• AP President Madison, trying to flee the Philippines, suffered an air attack and was heavily damaged. It is still floating, and will try to continue south.
• AS Canopus took two torpedoes leaving Manilla. It's nearly sunk. The captain has radioed that he stop at the nearest island and take the life boats to shore.

Air

• 12x F4F-3 at Wake Island when the Japanese took the island.
• 3x Blenheim and 1x Swordfish attacking the Japanese ships at Khota Bharu

Territory

• Guam
• Wake (I consider this a blessing. If they had not been defeated, public opinion would have forced us to hand our carriers to Japan on a silver platter.)
• Vigan (on the north coast of the Philippines)
• Legaspi (on the southern coast of the main island in the Philippines)


Damage Inflicted

• AVD McFarland reports sinking a Jap sub east of the Big Island of Hawaii
• Air attacks at Khota Bharu report damaging BB Haruna -- nothing serious I suspect.
• Reports from Wake Island say that the Marines there damaged 3 cargo ships, 3 destroyers, and 2 light cruisers. That's pretty impressive. Those guys showed us how to fight.


Misc. Notes

• Rumors that the Prince of Wales took a torpedo while leaving Singapore are false. They were attacked. Percival assured me that the ship was not damaged.
• The Enterprise also got shot at. I got a communique late today and I immediately saw the words 'Enterprise' and 'enemy torpedo' on the same line. I almost fell to the pavement right there. But, it was a miss.
• BB Maryland is still floating. I was certain that I was going to get a cable today saying it had sunk.


Leadership

McArthur

McArthur's political allies are raising a royal stink about my decision to sack him, and McArthur seems content to have this case tried in the press. He is good at playing this political game. I have been warned to expect some rather harsh editorials written against me in the next few days, and you may well hear calls for my resignation over the next few weeks.

Of course, I can't tell the press why I fired him without telling the whole Japanese army how successful they were in attacking Clark Field. Yes, McArthur is a master at the political game.

I only wish he could do as good a job being a General.


Kimmel

I'm sorry. I have been thinking about Admiral Kimmel's situation as commander of the Central Pacific forces, and I am afraid that I have some problems with keeping him in that position.

I have been briefed on all of the arguments in his defense. For example, it is General Short's responsibility to protect the fleet when it is in port so that the crew can rest, and Kimmel did not have access to all of the information available upon which to base a decision. However, I need leaders who have the ability to anticipate what the Japanese are doing and can take the appropriate counter measures, even when they do not have all of the information available. Kimmel failed that test.

He understands this. That statement it was said that he made when that spent slug hit his chest, "It would have been more merciful if it had killed me," was no depressed man's wish for suicide. It is because he knew what we must do.

I want somebody else in that position.


West Coast Defense

The people out here in the west are in a bit of a panic. There has even been violence in China Town -- idiots don't realize that China has been fighting against the Japanese for four years now. Still, a lot of people here at the Prestidio are worried about orientals coming down here and trying to blow things up. They think we should lock every one of them up until the war is over -- just to be safe.

I can't abide by that way of thinking. We're not just fighting to defend our lives here, but to defend our values -- the idea that all Americans have certain inalienable rights.

Sorry. No speeches, I promise.

As a part of this hysteria, there has been reports of Jap landings all up and down the coast. To listen to the rumors, the Japs have San Francisco surrounded by now.

Anyway, I told Bachurek to break open the armories and bring all of his units up to full strength. He gets first pick of available artillery, tanks, whatever he needs.

I also told him to be conspicuous about deplying them. Let the people see a show of strength. Drive right down main street if he has to, and fly a few squadrons of airplanes over the cities. Maybe that will calm the panic a bit.


Pearl Harbor Resupply

The next priority after the West Coast is getting Pearl Harbor rebuilt. Bachurek has had his men cleaning out every airbase up and down the west coast for spare parts for planes and ships at Pearl Harbor. Anything he can think of that they might need is getting loaded onto AK Aldebaran. As soon as it's loaded up, it's heading out -- probably Wednesday.

Now, we know about all of those Jap subs at Hawaii -- though aerial reconnaissance has them moving south. If I was a Jap sub commander, I would be taking my sub to the shipping lanes right up to San Francisco. So, I've got some concerns about Aldebaran making it. I told Bachurek that I want that ship well protected.

Once Pearl is up and running again, we will see about pushing out to some of the other islands.

However, I had Kimmel send some of the seaplane squadrons out to Johnson and Palmyra Islands to make sure that the Japanese cannot approach Hawaii again from that direction. I wish we had an island to the north.


Dutch Intelligence

I have shared with the Dutch government the intelligence information showing that the Japanese are preparing for an attack on Kuching. Even though Kuching is British, it is close enough to their territory that it should make them nervous, and perhaps force a little bit more flexibility from them.


Malaya

General Percival assures me that the landings at Khota Bharu on the northern end of Malaysia is too far away, with too much hostile jungle, to be a threat to Singapore directly. He thinks that Japan wants the airbase. He is arranging a counter-attack to force them off. The main attack, he says, will come against Singapore directly, and he does not want to be distracted by this little jungle war up north. He is planning accordingly.


China/Burma/India

China has agreed to send 9 divisions -- or, what the Chinese call divisions, which we would be more likely to call 'batallions' -- to India. I have informed the Chinese authorities that their departure would have to start immediately if they hope to make it down the Burma Road to Myitkyina before the Japanese take the town.

I am afrad that they are finding my claims a bit increadible and they have come just a hare's breath away from calling me a liar. They're not far wrong. I have my worries about what Japan can do with a half dozen divisions at Dacca, and a few tens of thousands of Chinese soldiers, however ill trained, would allow me to sleep a bit easier.


Other Areas

we are still under negotiations with the British about India and Burma, and the Australians and New Zealanders, about their involvement in this.

It's not that they are reluctant to help -- they have made some very strong and serious commitments. But, there is some negotiation that has to be done with respect to how to handle this.

Churchill has pretty much eliminated India's air force, sending its planes either to Malaya or bringing them back to Europe.


Conclusion

There is not much I can say at this point in the war. We are just starting to get wound up. It will take a while to get this war machine moving. Once we do, it will be difficult to stop. But it will not be reaching full speed right away.

I hope that the morning finds you well. I expect another full day tomorrow.

Sincerely,

Thayne[/font]

[Thayne]

[font="Courier New"]Tuesday, December 9, 1941

Good Morning Henry:

Why does everybody think that I should have a tour of everything? When I got up this morning, I was immediately informed that arrangements had been made for me to tour Fort Chronkite, the Mare Island Naval Shipyard, and the Port of Embarkation. I don't need to see these places. All I need is to know what the people doing there can get done.

The Port of Embarkation is one place I would have liked to have seen. The biggest struggle in this campaign is going to be logistics. They are loading AK Aldeberan and AK Alabaman there right now for the trip to Pearl Harbor. They're just pulling in a third transport, AK Coastal Trader.

But the flow of cargo is just a trickle of what it needs to be. We are loading what we can find around the port. We are waiting for shipments from across the country. But, once we pack up our available inventory, we will still be more -- and the factories cannot churn this stuff out overnight. Congress needs to get busy spending some money so we can start to get busy building some factories to churn this stuff out.

Well, that's my gripe for the day.

Losses

Ships

• S-39 took some damage from a depth charge attack east of Legaspi. It was looking for the carrier known to be in these waters. Instead, the carrier's escort seems to have found the sub. It suffered only moderate damage.
• AS Otus took a bomb hit at Zamboanga, in the southeastern region of the Philippines. It's suffered some pretty heavy damage. This is the second sub tender that Japan has hit.

Airplanes

• The British sent several waves of fighters and bombers against the Japanese invasion fleet at Khota Bharu. The Japanese had provided combat air patrols over the landings. Between the CAP and the flak, the British lost 7x Buffalo, 6x Blenheims, and 1x Walrus.

Territory

• The Japanese made no significant territorial advances since I wrote to you last.

Damage Inflicted

• The air attacks at Khota Bharu inflicted some damage on the Japanese battleship Kongo. However, I cannot imagine that the damage was significant.


Hawaii

I think you should no that reconnaissance airplanes are tracking the Japanese carrier fleet as it sails south between Midway and Pearl Harbor (close to Midway). This sudden change of course almost caught Lexington as it was returning to Pearl Harbor. However, Japan never seemed to discover that the allied carrier was in the region.

Pearl Harbor is still struggling to put together a working air force. The morning after the Pearl Harbor attack it had only 8 fighters and 6 bombers to defend the island (not counting seaplanes). It has gotten that up to 14 fighters and 9 bombers, but that is barely enough if Japan should come back.

To keep from losing the carriers if Japan should strike, I have suggested to Nimitz that he keep the carrier planes for Enterprise and Yorktown at Pearl Harbor, but pull the ships themselves out of harm's way to the east.

I do not want to see two American carriers go up against six Japanese carriers. Throwing the American carriers away would almost sound to me like aiding and abetting the enemy.

AK Aldeberan is due to leave port tomorrow with a full load of cargo for Pearl Harbor. I am more anxious and nervous about this than about anything else that we have going on right now in the Pacific Theater. If this ship reaches Hawaii, it can use the cargo on this ship to start to seriously rebuild the air force. This will give us a stronger base, from which we can start to expand west and south.

Until this happens, we are pretty much defenseless in the Pacific.

I fear that the Japanese may know this as well.


Leadership

Percival

I regret to say that I am hearing some things about General Percival. I have been told of a meeting in which Percival said, "Defenses are bad for morale." There are a lot of people under him who are displeased to the point of shock at some of the things Percival has claimed.

However, at this point I do not have anything specific that I can say is a cause to fire him. He claims that the attack on Khota Bharu is a distraction. He is said to be worried that the Japanese want to draw his troops into northern Malaya, then land behind them at Kuantan and trap them.

I am continuing to send out feelers among Percival's subordinates in order to determine how fit he is to command. I think you should warn Churchill to have a list of names ready in case I decide to replace him. I am not going to want to spend a lot of time getting a new leader in there if I decide that one is needed.


Canada

I think that negotiations with the Canadians have produced some solid results. We have agreed that Prince Rupert will become a major supply point for the Northern Pacific. Trains and trucks will get cargo as far as Prince Rupert, where they will be loaded onto ships and sent to Anchorage and Dutch Harbor.

The Canadians have agreed to send extra engineers to Prince Rupert in order to build up the port there to handle a larger volume of cargo. General Alexander has agreed to move his own headquarters to Prince Rupert in order to help coordinate the flow of supplies.


Japanese Airforce

There has been almost no activity from the Japanese air force in a couple of days. They have a light carrier south of the Philippines trying to intercept our ships, and they have some Oscars flying cover over their landing at Khota Bharu. We have also experienced a couple of raids using Lilly and Sally bombers, escorted by Oscars, out of Khompong Trach in southern Indochina.

I am wondering if they are shifting their forces in preparation for some future move. However, I cannot think of anything better for them to be using their power on than on capturing the Philippines. We know that they had several air groups within range of the Philippine Islands. I am curious as to when we will see those airplanes again.

That's pretty much all that I have to report for now. I hope that you had a pleasant night's sleep.

Thayne[/font]

[munited18]

As usual, another fine product put out by Thayne. I look forward to this latest installment!

[Thayne]

[font="Courier New"]Wednesday, December 10, 1941

Henry:

I'm sorry, Henry, but this is my call. I ordered Nimitz not to engage the enemy carriers. He can scream all he wants, but sending our ships up against that battlefleet at 3 to 1 odds against is a waste of good carriers (not to mention good lives) and I will not have it done.

This is one of those cases that, if you override me on this, you can have my resignation.

I also had him call back those two task forces that were heading to Johnson Island. One was heading out to mine the seas around the island in case of invasion. The other was delivering the seaplane tender AV Tangier to care for the float planes sent there earlier.

They are to rendezvous at the big island of Hawaii.

I don't even want them at Pearl Harbor. So far, the air strength at Pearl consists of 14 fighters and 9 bombers. Put this up against a Japanese carrier force of 100 fighters and 250 bombers. If the carriers come back to Pearl Harbor, any of our ships that they catch are gone.

That's a simple fact of the matter. One that I hope the Japanese do not realize.


Losses

Ships

• PG Isabel torpedoed and sank in Dutch territorial waters at Morotai. The Dutch government is using this as a causus belli to rouse its people to war. I think we can expect to see more movement on that front now.
• AS Canopus, the sub tender torpedoed just off of Manila two days ago, sank. It's captain stopped the ship off the coast of Panay and allowed the crew to man lifeboats and row to shore. They should be able to reach the 61st PA Division at Iloilo.
• SS-38 damaged by Japanese Mavis (seaplane) east of Legaspi. Moderate damage -- enough to call it in for repairs.
• TK Manatawny: Large freighter torpedoed and bombed east of the Philippine island of Mindanao. Moderate damage; taking on a lot of water. May not survive.

Air

Nothing, really. When Percival (commander of Malaya) sent planes to Khota Bharu in several small waves, they took a lot of damage. "Defeated in detail" I think is the military term. So, he is consolidating his forces at Singapore for one large wave. He hopes to do a better job of plowing through that Japanese CAP.

Territory

• Nanchang (central China). This fight was going on before the U.S. entered the war. Its outcome was pre-determined.
• Khota Bharu (northern Malaya, east coast). Japan has 20,000 troops there, and Percival still tells me not to worry.
• Makin. The northernmost of the Gilbert islands, southwest of Pearl Harbor. There was nobody there to defend it.


Gains

• A night-time raid on Kompong Trach successfully blistered paint and cracked glass on some Oscar fighters sitting near the tarmac. Actually, it's hard to see how much damage one does at night, but the G2 guys say that the damage was slight.

That's all.

I am not pleased.


AK Aldebaran Left Port

Yesterday night, well before dawn, I looked outside of my airplane and watched AK Aldebaran slip quiety out of the harbor. It was bound for Pearl Harbor, flanked by two Flush Deck class destroyers. Two destroyers had left earlier, about an hour. No doubt, those destroyers had their sonar running to screen the waters ahead for enemy submarines. One more destroyer followed up from behind. At sea, he would warn of any Japanese task force coming from behind.

The two aircraft carriers Enterprise and Lexington have been assigned the task of clearing the seas east of Pearl Harbor of submarines.

In two days -- Friday, at about dawn -- two more transports will be loaded up and ready to leave. It is not much, but it is better than nothing.


Malaya

Khota Bharu fell today. Percival is still telling me that we have nothing to worry about -- that the Japanese can't get from there to Singapore.

I wonder if Percival has considered the fact that control of the airbase gives Japan an ability to attack any ship that sails that Macassar Straight. Where does he expect to get supplies and reinforcements from? Ships in Macassar Straight can be hit by any airplane capable of delivering a payload 200 miles -- which is just about anything Japan has in the air.

The units fleeing Khota Bharu reported that they left the airfield in pretty bad shape, so it will take a couple of days for the Japs to get it operational. They will also have to bring in the airplanes and enough supplies to actually fly missions. But . . .

It appears to me that in three days Singapore will be cut off from the west. The only avenue for them to get help will have to come from the east -- the Dutch East Indies.

Percival is continuing to gather his air force at Singapore. He had his bombers rest yesterday -- after the beating they took trying to attack Khota Bharu the day before. Besides, according to what I hear, he is keeping the Prince of Wales at Singapore as bait -- trying to lure the Japanese air force. And he is keeping his Buffalo fighters ready to attack the Japanese when they come.

The Japanese attacked the Prince of Wales once, on December 8, and we did inflict a fair amount of damage against the air force. But, they seem not to be falling for it a second time.


The Dutch East Indies

Maybe the sinking of PG Isabel in Dutch territorial waters -- within sight of the port of Morotai, may prompt the Dutch into being a little more cooperative. They are still insisting that they can hold out best with their current disposition of troops. Rather than consolidating their forces into a unified fighting force, they are insisting on holding many different ports with a minimal force at each port.

I believe that, now, I can at least convince them into massing a decent air force at a few places, rather than having their airplanes scattered about. That should not be too much to ask.

They have, at least, mined a few of their ports and consolidated their fleet to some extent.

I am wondering if the Japanese are getting a bit concerned about the possibility of a combined Dutch/American fleet going after their carrier. The carrier force, the one that hit PG Isabel and other ships in the southern Philippines, turned around yesterday and returned to the east.

It looks like we really could get a unified fleet put together in the Dutch East Indies. Houston and a squadron of destroyers has almost reached Balikpapan. The Dutch have three cruisers and a dozen destroyers at Soerabaja.

I have had a thought. What could we accomplish if we add the Prince of Wales and the Repulse, with their escort of destroyers, to this group? Or, add this group to the British battlefleet at Singapore?

It's a thought.


Japanese Carriers

PBYs are still tracking the Japanese carrier force. It turned west, toward the Marshall Islands. Fortunately. We really did not have anything left to protect Pearl Harbor. Even if it decided to reverse course at this point, we would have three additional days to prepare a response. The best part is that it is no longer a threat to the ships arriving from the west coast of the United States.

Unless, it split up into two groups, and we only know about one of them . . .

Maybe I am paranoid, but I have had a disturbing thought.

Yesterday, in the reports that Nimitz sent me, there was a message that said that AK Regulus left Midway two days ago, heading southeast. I looked at a plot of the ship's courses, and the transport sailed within 200 miles of this task force. Yet, it was not spotted.

Maybe it was having a very lucky day. Maybe this task force does not contain any carriers. Rather, it broke off from the carrier force and sailed the route it did because the commander knew that it would be easy for me to track it . . . and to make some rash assumptions.

I do think that this is the Japanese carrier force and the merchant ship got lucky. But, I am going to take its luck as a sign that the Japanese carriers could show up anywhere. At least, the survival of the AK means that I have no actual proof that the carriers are with this task force.


Japanese Air Force

A few more of the Japanese airplanes showed up again. There were the usual raids against Khota Bharu. But there was another raid, against northern Philippines, using a mixture of Lilly, Ann, and Val bombers -- about 50 bombers in all. We still have had no reports of Betty or Nell bombers.


Thayne[/font]

[Thayne]

errir

[Thayne]

[font="Courier New"]Thursday, December 11, 1941

Henry:

Man, I feel rotten.

If my last letter was a bit rambling, it is because I am under the influence of some Jap sympathizer flu virus.

I had somebody put a cot and a case of Coca Cola for me in the communications building while I negotiated with the various factions in this fight. Except, nobody stopped to think that if somebody asks for a case of coke, they might also need a bottle opener.

Losses

Naval

• AK Taurus. Cargo ship trying to escape the Philippines, caught between Mindanao (the southernmost Philippine island) and Palau (Jap island to the east). 4 Torpedo hits, sunk almost immediately.

Air

• Bombardment attack on Manila. Zeros shot down 5x P-40s. 4x Betty brought down by AA. Fighters were flying CAP too high to intercept bombers.

• Naval bombardment of Del Monte Airfield (Cagayan base, N. coast of Mindanao Island, Philippines). Severe damage to airfield, but no effect on the bombers.


Gains

None


Leadership: Malaya Army

I have heard enough to remove General Percival from command of the Malaya Army. I am not saying that the harsh criticism that I have heard about him is justified. At this point, it does not matter. The people working under him do not trust him, and that is not what the Malayan army needs right now.

When I asked for a list of likely replacements, I was surprised to find a "Colonel C.E. Wavell" on the list. I have no idea why a Colonel's folder would be in that stack. However, as it turns out, he seemed to be just the person that I would like to see in that position.

Starting tomorrow, I have been promised that I will see an entirely new strategy on the Malayan peninsula. I have been promised a long conversation with Colonel Wavell this evening to discuss his plans.

I think that I want to pull the Prince of Wales and Repulse into the defense of the Dutch East Indies, rather than keeping them bottled up at Singapore.

Oh . . . that reminds me. Submarines and seaplanes have spotted a Japanese fleet sailing out of Camranh Bay, Indochina, that looks more than a little threatening. They report transports escorted by at least three battleships and a like number of cruisers. They gave me course and speed, and my guess is that they are heading for Kuching.

We received intelligence reports on the first day of the war saying that there were plans underway for the occupation of Kuching, so this would not be a surprise.

I asked the Dutch to send a few submarines into the area to intercept the landing force. It will not be able to stop them, but it may make the attack a bit more painful than it otherwise would have been.


Dutch East Indies

After extensive conversations with the Dutch, I think I have convinced them to make some changes in their defense. They will be pulling some units they have on the fringes of their country and pulling them in toward the center in order to bolster their defense.

Specifically, they have sent troop transports to Padang and Palembang on the southwestern coast of Sumatra to pick up the garrisons for these ports, and to take them to Bali. Bali has the potential to be a significant thorn in the Japanese side, if it is properly garrisoned. It also has the capacity to operate a sizable air force for the protection of eastern Java.

Also, as you know, I had given a lot of thought to how I would defend the Dutch East Indies from a Japanese attack, and another useful piece of real estate I discovered in my studies is Aru Island.

The main benefit of this island is that it does not seem to suffer from the problems with malaria that inflicts other south sea islands. I am not sure why this is the case, but the research that I have done seems to consistently identify this island as free of the disease. It is perfectly situated to be able to protect Darwin and the north coast of Australia from the Japanese. Or, alternatively, to be used by the Japanese as a place of relative safety against Darwin. The latter is not something that I want to see happen.


Phiippines

General Thompson has decided to try to hold out as long as he can on the Bataan Penninsula. He has already succeeded in getting as much food and ammunition as he could out of Manila and into supply caches in this area.

He also managed to get the 71st and 11th Philippine Army Divisions out of Tuguegarao and on the road to Clark Air Force Base. Landings earlier at Vigan threatened to cut these units off. That risk has been seriously reduced.

He has also called for the 41st Philippine Army Division to retreat to Bataan from Naga to help secure the Bataan defenses. He reports that he has some fear that the Japanese might land somewhere between Manila and Naga and, thus, cut off the southern force. Yet, he does not wish to abandon the southern fortress entirely, so this is a compromise position.

The Bataan Penninsula is a fairly thick jungle, where it is believed that a determined defender can hold up for a long time. Thompson says that he will try to keep the Japanese army tied up until April, giving us some time to build up our containment line.

I can only assume it is difficult to go out and lead an army that one knows is going to lose. What we will see at Bataan is something akin to the Alamo, with the number of holdouts in the tens of thousands. These people know they have lost, yet they are determined not to give up.

I mentioned above, that the Japanese are taking steps to eliminate the Del Monte airstrip at Cagayan. This airstrip was supposed to be the home of the bombers because it was supposed to be safe. It proved to be a little less safe than expected, with Japanese surface ships shelling the airfield.

Intelligence reports have also reached me that Japan has a task force at sea heading to Davao, on the large southernmost island of the Philippines. Landings are also planned for Lingayan, north of Clark Air Force Base on the northern island.

It's a bit frustrating, knowing all of these things, and being able to do so little about it.


Hawaii

The Japanese carrier force seem to have disappeared. Whatever that force was that cut south between Hawaii and Pearl Harbor, it has since turned west and vanished. Patrol planes flying out of Johnson and Midway have lost track of it.

As a result, Admiral Nimitz is starting to take moves to establish a more secure defense for the islands, and to secure the naval route to Australia.

He has ordered the 3rd and 4th USMC Defense Battalions loaded up onto transports. One of those battalions will go to the Line Islands south of Hawaii, unloading at Christmas Island and the Line Islands. He's sending the carriers south as well, to escort the ships.

The quest to try to find Japanese submarines around Pearl Harbor has proved fruitless, and I am starting to think that this is because they are not there. Nimitz has had minesweeper task forces sailing all over the islands without sign of a contact. Airplanes spotted a sub about halfway between Pearl and Johnson Island, but that still leaves the Hawaiian home waters fairly secure.

In order to expand the range of searchplanes, Nimitz sent seaplane tenders to Kona (on the southern tip of Big Island) and Lihu (100 miles east of Pearl Harbor) with a squadron of PBYs to look for Japanese ships.

Two more transport ships headed off to Hawaii from San Francisco yesterday, taking the southern route. If AK Aldeberan does not make it to Hawaii, it is hoped that this second ship will succeed.


Japanese Air Force

Japanese airplanes came out in force yesterday.

• 52x Betty, 48x Zero from southern Formosa for Manila
• 3x Tojo, 24x Sonia from Amoy to Hong Kong
• 47x Sally from Phnom Phen to Kuantan (central Malaya)
• 14x Sally, 47x Lily from Kompong Trang to Alor Star (N. Malaya)

A lot of the Japanese Betty bombers seem to be missing.

I have some reason to believe that what I thought might have been a Japanese move to reposition its forces was, in fact, a spat of bad luck in the weather. They simply could not get off of the field.

However, the weather seems to have moderated somewhat, allowing the Japanese to fly again.


Maryland

I have been getting some pressure to scuttle BB Maryland and to put the resources required to repair it to work on other, more productive projects.

BB Maryland is certainly in very bad shape. It's going to take a lot of work to get it back in fighting formation, and the effort we put into salvaging BB Maryland is work that is unavailable for other projects. All of this is perfectly true.

But, this is not a game of mere numbers here. We have to keep in mind that there are human emotions involved as well. Right now, I am able to honestly claim that, though Japan did damage several of our battleships, none of those ships were actually sunk. Well, technically, Maryland is sitting a bit deep in the mud right now, I am of the opinion that if you can still walk on parts of the deck without getting your feet wet, the ship is not actually "sunk".

If we scuttle BB Maryland, this will certainly hit the press. The American public will know of one lost battleship. Worse, the Japanese will see this as a partial success.

When it comes to the Japanese, I do not want to add one iota to their morale or confidence. I want them to be asking themselves, "What went wrong? Why did we fail?" I can do that best as long as I can honestly say, "We lost no battleships at Pearl Harbor."

So, I am not scutting BB Maryland. At least not yet. In a year or so, it will not matter. Maybe, then, I'll say that it is not worth any more effort. For now, however, we are keeping the ship.


New Orleans

I hear that the government of Louisiana has passed emergency legislation to build a new cruiser. In case you were too busy to catch this item in the papers, they authorized the formation of a committee to sell a special issue of war bonds, which will be donated to the Federal Government to pay for the construction of a new Baltimore class Heavy Cruiser, to be named the USS New Orleans.

I would like to know why the legislature for the state of Louisiana thinks that what I really want with that money is another cruiser. Give me an aircraft carrier; that will make me happy.

Well, the will of the people and all that. I'll take the cruiser, happily enough.[/font]

[Thayne]

[font="Courier New"]Friday, December 12, 1941

The Honorable Mr. Henry Stenson:

I have had some criticism that my communiques are bit too informal -- not appropriate for correspondence at this level.

Sorry, Henry, but don't expect me to change. There is enough stress in this job without worrying about protocol with an old friend. Besides, even though informal, it does help me to get my thoughts in order. I need at least one person I can talk to where I do not need to worry about what I say.


Losses

Naval

• SS KXV - Dutch sub caught southeast of Camranh Bay. It was a bit of poor luck. The Japanese found another submarine in the area the previous day. That submarine headed south. KXV was also heading south, and happened to go through the same area, just as the enemy ASW showed up.

Air

• 7x Blenheim 1F: Percival's last mistake was flying night bombing missions out of the same airbase for several days without providing for protection from a Japanese counter attack.


Gains

None


Trap At Kuching

I am finally making progress with the Dutch and, apparently, it is just in time to set what I hope will be a trap for the Japanese.

This is a bit complex, so I hope you do not mind if I spend some time explaining it to you.

We have three signs suggesting that the Japanese about to invade Kuching, on the island of Borneo.

• An intelligence report on December 7 naming Kuching as a target.

• An enemy task force heading toward Kuching with several transports and escort ships included

• An enemy task force heading toward Kuching with several surface ships.

This suggests that a landing is imminent, and I managed to convince the Dutch to help the British defend the port.

There is no sign of a carrier force included in the attack.

Air Defenses

South of Kuching, the Dutch have two airfields that are capable of supporting air operations, at Pontianak and Singkawang. I convinced the Dutch to send 50 airplanes to each base.

I did not want to send any airplanes to Kuching itself, because it will almost certainly be bombarded -- leading to the destruction of all the planes. However, Kuching is well within range of airplanes statined at Pontianak and Singkawang.

Japanese Response: Air Bombardment

As I see it, Japan has two possible responses to this. He could bombard Singkawang. Pontianak is beyond the range of his Zero fighters, and he will not send the bombers without escort. So, Pontianak will not be bombed.

So, the next step in my plan will be to pull the bombers out of Singkawang and cover the base with fighters. Since the enemy will be flying at long range, they will not be able to fly as efficiently as they otherwise would be able to. And, with luck, some of them will crash and burn on the long flight back home. After the bombs fall, they still will not do any damage to my Dutch air force.

The Diversion. Even though we have no concentration of air units at Kuching, we have taken efforts to lead Japan into believing that we do. We have sent a squadron of patrol planes to Kuching, with orders to spend a lot of time flying around the city making it look like there are a lot of airplanes. If Japan has any spies in the area, they may be caused to report the possibility of airplanes to Japan. If there is any Japanese air bombardment in preparation for the assault, we would rather have Japan bomb Kuching, rather than Singkawang.

Japanese Response: Naval Bombardment

Japan's alternative response will be to send the bombardment task force attacking Kuching around to bombard the airbase at Pontianak.

In preparation for this, I have asked the Dutch to fill the ocean from Kuching to Pontianak with submarines. In addition, I have called the Prince of Wales and Repulse from Singapore, and a combined Dutch and American task force is forming up at Kragan on the north coast of Java (toward the center of that long island).

Repulse and Prince of Wales

Percival's plan with the Prince of Wales was to lure the Japanese into a trap. He was hoping that the Prince of Wales would attrack Japanese bombers. He had kept a large combat air patrol over the island to intercept the attack. In addition, the Prince of Wales would benefit from AA battaries on the shore, which would force Japan to pay a heavy price if it decided to launch a torpedo attack, or force them to use a much less effective high-altitude bombardment attack.

His reports to me indicated that he was certain Japanese planes saw the ship; several reconnaissance airplances were spotted over Singapore. However, Japan has apparently made a decision not to attack the ship in port.

In calling the Prince of Wales and Repulse to the Dutch East Indies, I suggested that a light cruiser and destroyer be left behind. It is my hope that this will cause the Japanese to think that the there is still a British task force at the Singapore, and the Prince of Wales is a part of it.

Meanwhile, the battleship and battlecruiser have sailed east. It's first stop will be at the port of Palembang. From there, it will get into position to defend Pontianak.

Joint US/Dutch Cruiser Force

Meanwhile, a task force consisting of the heavy cruiser Houston and light cruiser Marblehead, and the Dutch light cruiers Tromp and De Ruyter, and British light cruisers Durban and Dragon, will form a surface fleet in northern Java.

Decisions

Whether or not these units will challenge the Japanese task force has not yet been determined. When the ships get close enough to shell Kuching, we hope to get an idea of its composition, and how much damage they took attacking Kuching. I will be in contact with the commanders of the fleets to assess the possibility of a victory. We will make our decision as to a surface engagement at that time.

What Could Go Wrong

We have looked the plan over from a number of different directions for what could go wrong.

(1) There is no planned landing at Kuching. The sighting of the two enemy task forces heading southeast from French Indochina -- one made up of transports and the other of surface ships -- might have some other objective. Or, they could be a diversion. If this is the case, then we have lost nothing by setting up the ambush.

(2) Japan anticipates the possibility of a trap and sends bombers against the base at Singkawang, catching its bombers on the ground. A huge raid would certainly do a fair amount of damage, and tip our hands to the Japanese. However, I do not see how Japan can suspect that we are making such a move. If Japan is planning to bomb any place in preparation for the attack, it would be Kuchang itself, where there are just a few planes.

(3) There could be a Japanese carrier in the area. Several smaller Japanese carriers are unaccounted for. We might be sending our task forces into a hornet's nest. However, it seems unlikely that a Japanese carrier would be nearby, and we have simply missed it. We already know that 7 of Japan's carriers, are not in these waters. The six fleet carriers are still east of the Marshall Islands, and Ryujo was last seen two days ago on the east side of the Philippines, heading East.

(4) Japan wins in a fair fight. Japan bombards, and we send in our bombers, doing no damage and getting stacks of airplanes shot up. Then, Japan sends its bombers against Singkawang. Its Zero escort chews our fighters up and spits them out. Then, we engage the surface fleet, only to get ourselves mauled by the Japanese Navy. That could happen. I hope, however, that we are a little better than that.

All things considered, there is some risk, but I think that this is a good plan. At the very least, I hope to gain one additional effect from this -- to make Japan think twice about launching an invasion. If Japan grows timid, if it slows down its rate of advance, that can only work in our favor. We need to buy time. Even if we do not inflict major damage, we may something that the statisticians cannot count.

Tomorrow will be quiet. If the trap gets sprung, it will happen on Sunday. Somehow, fitting, don't you thing?


Battle for Burma Begins

Japan invaded Burma. We have reports of a Japanese units on the outskirts of Victoria Point. I have no fixed assessment on the size of the attack group, but I am suspecting that it is probably a division. It is much too large of a force for the defenders at Victoria Point to hold out against.

I had hoped that the Malaya campaign would take all of Japan's attention. However, that has proved not to be the case. In addition to the Japanese army approaching Victoria Point, other Japanese units sit right across the border from Tavo. I cannot help but think that Japan will be driving in toward Rangoon relatively soon.

I have been informed that there is a group of American mercenary pilots organized and sent to train in Burma, for operations in China. It is called the American Volunteer Group. Allegedly, they arrived only recently and they are still in the process of getting organized. They would prove useful in the defense of Rangoon. However, I am afraid that I may have to negotiate with Chang Kai Shek for their use.

So far, I have not been able to get in touch with them. Hopefully, I can reach them before too long.

Until tomorrow

Thayne[/font]

[WhoCares]

Dir Sir,
This is FltLt. Kannitverstaan, CO 3rd RNAF Tac. Bomber Sq..
Shall we relocate our bombers to Pontianak immediatly or shall we transfer just in time saturday afternoon?
Option one would give us some more time between transfer and actual battle, fix damages from transfer and general rest, at the risk of a premature alert of the enemy by our transfer (from spys either here or near the destination base; prob. not enough for them to know our numbers but just about our general presence).
Option two would be at the risk of an attack with reduced numbers (losses in transfer, reduced coordination due to higher fatigue) but at least give us a better change of surprise, a factor that might very well make up the disatvantages just mentioned.

At your command!

Sincerly,

FltLt. Kannitverstaan
(CO 3rd RNAF Tac. Bomber Sq.)

[:D]

[Thayne]

[font="Courier New"]DECEMBER 12, 1941

ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF ORDERS THEN PROCEED IMMEDIATELY TO ASSIGNED AIRBASE STOP GET A GOOD DAYS REST AND MAKE SURE THAT YOUR PLANES ARE IN WORKING ORDER STOP ATTACK EXPECTED ON THE 14TH STOP[/font]