A Thought Experiment...

[Terminus]

To tide us over during the Yuletide hurly-burly.

Consider this scenario:

The date is September 7th, 1941. Through various means (unimportant for the sake of the scenario), the US has acquired detailed plans for the Japanese invasion of the Philippines, including the launch date, three months hence. No other details of the Japanese war plans are known to the Americans (nothing on Pearl Harbor, etc...), but the authorities have decided to take the plans seriously. Therefore, steps are to be taken to strengthen the defences of the Philippines.

My question is this: did a reinforcement plan exist for the Philippines that would be carried out in peace time? If so, what would likely be sent (which land units, which air units, which ships)?

[Cutman]

Terminus,

Just want to get all the details straight. Are we saying that we re-enforce ourselves in PAC and wait for them to attack? What about Germany? The same as Japan?

[Demosthenes]

Funny you should ask,

I can't say in detail what the reinforcement plan really was - though there very much was one in progress when war broke out, such as to bring in 400 P40s to the PI, and I believe a reinforcement of some 150 B17s, substantial ground troops, and more.
Part of this reinforcement was underway when war began.

As an aside, I remember searching the OOB of the US Army in WWII looking for INF RGTs that were on active duty in 1940, and never left the Western Hemisphere for the duration of WWII - so as to see what might have been sent to the PI without effecting any units that actually went over seas. As I recall I found 3 to 5 such INF RGTs that could have done that (and would never have been missed so to say)

There is a web site that has some info on reinforcement plans - If I can find it I'll post it.

[Terminus]

ORIGINAL: Cutman

Terminus,

Just want to get all the details straight. Are we saying that we re-enforce ourselves in PAC and wait for them to attack? What about Germany? The same as Japan?

Not necessarily; the reinforcement could be of a more offensive bent, considering the three month warning. However, factoring in the drain on resources for the convoys in the Atlantic, there might be trouble finding significant offensive power.

I'm interested in this because of the mod I'm working on. I've already increased British power in Malaya, so I thought, "why not US power in the Philippines as well?"

[niceguy2005]

Was that level of reinforcement achievable?

I know its a game, but it would take a long time in WitP to scrape together 400 P-40s. I don't think the factories even had the capacity at the time to make them.

[Demosthenes]

Here is a good page discussing reinforcments 'to be sent' and 'actually sent' to the Philippines in 1941.
http://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/USA/USA ... 3.html#3-2

There is another such page dealing with the USAAF in the DEI, where it makes reference to aircraft earmarked for the PI before the war being diverted to Australia and the DEI in the early days of the war.

http://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/AAF/I/AAF-I-5.html

In Part of what it said:
Out of a projected 240 modern pursuit planes for the Far East Air Force, only 107 P-40's had arrived; and instead of the planned total of 165 modern heavy bombers, the air force had 35 B-17C's and D's. The 27th Bombardment Group, which had been in the Philippines since 20 November, was still awaiting the arrival of its 52 A-24's, which were en route in a convoy of seven vessels escorted by the USS Pensacola.112 The ships were loaded to capacity with materiel and troops for General MacArthur's command. In addition to the A-24's, the vessels carried 18 P-40's and much heavy equipment, supplies, and fuel, including 340 motor vehicles, four dozen 75-mm. guns, more than 3,500,000 rounds of ammunition, over 600 tons of bombs, and 9.000 drums of aviation fuel. Approximately 2,500 officers and men of the AAF, including the ground echelon of the 7th BOmbardment Group, and some 2,000 additional troops, including 2 regiments of field artillery,were on board the vessels. Directed by "higher authority" to take a southwest course instead of the normal course through the Japanese-mandated islands, the convoy had swung south from Honolulu after the last ship joined the group on 29 November. On 6 December, after crossing the equator, the convoy was still a considerable distance from its destination.113 Farther north, at approximately 500 miles out from San Francisco, The Garfield and Johnston were en route to the Philippines with the remaining squadrons of the 35th Pursuit Group and a number of other units and stores of supplies and equipment.114 On the same day, 6 December, the 557th Aircraft Warning Battalion arrived at San Francisco port of embarkation for shipment to the Philippines. But the course of events did not allow any of these reinforcements to reach their original destination.
From Hawaii on December General Short sent a message of reassurance to General Arnold regarding preparations along the South Pacific air route, declaring that "we are striving very hard to make good our promise of having one runway at all fields so that we can use the route by 15 January."115 Work was proceeding at an accelerated rate on Canton, Christmas, Suva in the Fiji Islands, and New Caledonia; and inasmuch as no hop was greater than 1,250 statue miles, General Short felt that upon completion the route would be satisfactory for medium as well as heavy bombers, a point that had become a matter of concern by the first week in December. To the problem of early completion there now had been added a new concern for the

security of the route; for the islands in the SOuth Pacific were virtually defenseless, and the lack of troops for permanent garrisons meant that slim forces had to be shifted from posts in the Hawaiian Islands. General Short was preparing garrisons of approximately 144 officers and men for shipment to Canton and CHristmas, but they were not scheduled to sail until mid-December. Pending their arrival, the defense of the island bases would have to be provided by construction personnel, whose hands already were more than full. In the effort to extend air route facilities from Australia to the Philippines, General MacArthur's representatives had surveyed a route that could be used for the ferrying of pursuit aircraft.116 Given time, the prospects for speed reinforcement of the Philippines by air were promising, but obviously time was running out.
On 1 December, General Arnold had written to the commander of the Hawaii Air Force: "We must get every B-1ailable to the Philippines a soon as possible."117 And on 6 December he arrived at Hamilton Field for a personal inspection of preparations for the air movement of the 38th and 88th Reconnaissance Squadrons to Hawaii on the first leg of a flight to Mindanao. That evening, thirteen B-17's of the two squadrons took off from Hamilton and headed for Oahu, where they were scheduled to arrive on the morning of 7 December.118

The even of hostilities thus found no slackening in efforts to reinforce the Philippines. AAF planes deployed outside the continental United States had reached a total of 913 aircraft--636 pursuit planes and 61 heavy, 157 medium, and 59 light bombers--and they were divided among Newfoundland, Greenland, Iceland, Panama, Puerto Rico, Trinidad, the Virgin Islands, British Guiana, the Windward and Leeward islands, Alaska, Hawaii, and the Philippines.119 But the overseas deployment which had begun with an emphasis toward Europe was focused on the western Pacific.

[Lt. Calley]

The Dutch had ordered hundreds of tanks and armored cars in 1940-1941 including 200 M3 light tanks but very few of them were shipped in time to see action in the DEI.

http://www.geocities.com/dutcheastindies/KNIL_armour.html

[Mike Scholl]

ORIGINAL: Terminus

To tide us over during the Yuletide hurly-burly.

Consider this scenario:

The date is September 7th, 1941. Through various means (unimportant for the sake of the scenario), the US has acquired detailed plans for the Japanese invasion of the Philippines, including the launch date, three months hence. No other details of the Japanese war plans are known to the Americans (nothing on Pearl Harbor, etc...), but the authorities have decided to take the plans seriously. Therefore, steps are to be taken to strengthen the defences of the Philippines.

My question is this: did a reinforcement plan exist for the Philippines that would be carried out in peace time? If so, what would likely be sent (which land units, which air units, which ships)?

No real "plans" existed, but what you are suggesting was already being done in response to MacArthur's claims that the Philippines could and should be defended. Marshall was pushing reinforcements to the Islands as fast as shipping could be found to do it. The problem was that the process hadn't started soon enough to make a real difference. The "Three Month's" you speak of isn't enough time for anything meaningfull to occur in 1941. It had been going on for 8-9 months IRL, and still wasn't enough. The US was still mobilizing and training and preparing for War---the mass of units and equipment and shipping that would have been around in 1943 just wasn't there to do the job in 1941.

[Cutman]

The Army and the Marine division on the West Coast where at about 50% at this time. The Marine Aircraft Sqns were not on Wake or Midway and back still at Ewa, but the (5) Def Bn where in place across the Pacific already. With the two remaining at PH.
Still more questions.. How does the war start? Same surprise attack at PH?
I agree with the previous post that 3 months is not enough time..

Cutman

[Demosthenes]

ORIGINAL: niceguy2005

Was that level of reinforcement achievable?

I know its a game, but it would take a long time in WitP to scrape together 400 P-40s. I don't think the factories even had the capacity at the time to make them.

The more I think about it I think the reference I had read about 400 P40 reinforcements might have been after the war began - to be sent to the Far East. I really don't remember in any detail but it was on one of those two links I posted above.

[Terminus]

ORIGINAL: Cutman

Still more questions.. How does the war start? Same surprise attack at PH?
I agree with the previous post that 3 months is not enough time..

Same war start.

The point of the 3 months was to set up a situation where the US knows exactly that the Japanese are going to attack, instead of simply having MacArthur saying that the Philippines are defensible, and could I please have 400 P-40's?

I know the atrocious state of readiness of US forces would probably preclude any rushing in of reinforcements on a large scale during the time frame, but still...

[Dereck]

ORIGINAL: Terminus

ORIGINAL: Cutman

Still more questions.. How does the war start? Same surprise attack at PH?
I agree with the previous post that 3 months is not enough time..

Same war start.

The point of the 3 months was to set up a situation where the US knows exactly that the Japanese are going to attack, instead of simply having MacArthur saying that the Philippines are defensible, and could I please have 400 P-40's?

I know the atrocious state of readiness of US forces would probably preclude any rushing in of reinforcements on a large scale during the time frame, but still...

From reading Edwin Layton's book "And I Was There: Pearl Harbor and Midway - Breaking the Secrets", from what he said (and other books I've read) the US was already in the process of building up the Philippines to the detriment of other places (like Hawaii). The only problem was that at that point there really wasn't all that much to really send yet.

[Demosthenes]

Ok, after skimming to the links I posted I stand corrected, The closeset reference I found so far to 400 P40s as a reinforcment was tis below:

The hope of an effective air defense of the Netherlands East Indies depended chiefly therefore upon plans for reinforcement of the AAF in the Southwest Pacific. The eighteen P-40's and fifty-two A-24's which had reached Brisbane on 22 December, even when joined with the fourteen B-17's brought down from Del Monte to Darwin, constituted hardly so much as a token force. But as the British and American staffs assembled in their ARCADIA conference at Washington, it was proposed to build up AAF strength in the western Pacific to a total of two heavy and two medium bombardment groups and six pursuit groups. Plans called for an early transfer from the United States of 80 heavy bombers, 114 medium bombers, and 480 pursuit planes.16 The heavy bombers would go by air, under a schedule calling for 3 B-17's to leave the United States on or about 24 December, the same number on the following day, and thereafter at the rate of 6 bombers per day.* 17 It was anticipated that 55 pursuit planes, with crews, would reach Australia by 8 January and an additional 125 within ten days thereafter; a complete pursuit group with 80 planes was scheduled to leave San Diego on or about 10 January.

But as is obvious - this was in plans for the defence of the DEI not the PI, and not before hostilities began.

So the best I could come up with so far was the previous reference to a planned 240 pursuits (evidently P40s) of which only 107 had actually reached the PI's before Dec 7th.

[Terminus]

And about 50 were operational on December 7th.

[Demosthenes]

ORIGINAL: Terminus

And about 50 were operational on December 7th.

I don't really know, according to that history site there seems to be no consesus on that actual figure.

But if your doing a mod to see what might have been, live a little, givem 240.

[Terminus]

Hey, that's the whole fun part of modding... I'm thinking of replacing the P-26's and P-35's at Clark with P-40's, and then boosting the readiness level of units around the Philippines, with increases of numbers of ready aircraft, less disablement in LCU's, etc. Maybe I'll add that A-24 group as well.

I've given the Japs and the Brits so much extra combat power, it would be unfair not to let the US have a bit more as well...

[Demosthenes]

ORIGINAL: Terminus

Hey, that's the whole fun part of modding... I'm thinking of replacing the P-26's and P-35's at Clark with P-40's, and then boosting the readiness level of units around the Philippines, with increases of numbers of ready aircraft, less disablement in LCU's, etc. Maybe I'll add that A-24 group as well.

I've given the Japs and the Brits so much extra combat power, it would be unfair not to let the US have a bit more as well...

Good idea,
By the way, you should add 18x B18's because they were really there, also it appears that the USAAFFE (PI) had ALL P40E's, no P40B's.

I think also that the P-26 unit was a Philippino unit, and I thinkthat can be changed in the editor as well.

Also as a 'what if', two Independant US INF RCT's that immediately come to mind as being eligible for transfer to the PI are the 3rd and 33rd Infantry. These units were active duty in 1940, and served in the American Theatre for the duration, so it is possible they may well have been sent in 1941 as a reinforcement without historically robbing units that actually went overseas (like The Big Red One). There were others also that fit those parameters.

[Terminus]

Perhaps the Pensacola convoy (aka Convoy 4002) could have magically arrived in time as well...

[ChezDaJez]

Hyperwar also goes into a little more detail as to the status of the P-40s.

Status of USAAFE P-40s

For defense of the Philippines, the Far East Air Force had in commission thirty-three B-17's, of which sixteen were at Del Monte and the rest at Clark Field, and approximately ninety pursuit aircraft.

The 3e Pursuit Squadron at Iba and the 17th at Nichols each had eighteen P-40E's; the 20th at Clark was equipped with the same number of P-40B's. The 21st and 34th Squadrons, respectively based on the Nichols and Del Carmen fields, had arrived in the Philippines only in late November and did not receive their planes until 7 December, when the former was assigned approximately eighteen hastily assembled P-40E's and the latter took up its duties with P-35's, each of which had an average flying time close to 500 hours.l Also available were a miscellaneous assortment of noncombat aircraft and twelve P-26's flown from Batangas by pilots of the Philippine Air Force.

The reference to "hastily assembled P-40Es" is a bit of a gross understatement. Groundcrews did not have time to run in the engines or install and boresight all the guns. Many of the aircraft had only 1 or 2 guns installed before the attack. 0.5 caliber ammo was also in very short supply at the airfields. Others had no gunsights. And the pilots in these squadrons had never flown a P-40. The groundcrews for the 21st and 34th squadrons had not arrived as yet so had to be supported by the 17th Squadron. What a way to go to war!

Definitely a case of too little too late.

Chez

[Terminus]

So they could either have a P-40 with no guns, held together with duct tape and chewing gum, or a P-35 that was about to fall apart from age? Oh, goody...