Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! Chez (J) vs. Canoe (A)

[witpqs]

I'm not saying do or don't do it, but the fighters on board are really irrelevant. Contact with the KB will be fatal regardless. So he either takes a shot at the tankers and gets away or he doesn't.

[Blackhorse]

FWIW, if you think he hasn't spotted Lexington (and I think that's what you think), then I think you should take the calculated risk.

If you are right, you will gut a 6-carrier operation and force him to return-to-base to refuel and reload.

If you sink the oilers, how far can he pursue you at full speed? Even if you miss/ damage the oilers, you escape if he has to pause to refuel first.

. . . on the otherhand, I am an old cavalryman -- we're known for being swift afoot, not swift of thought.

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: Blackhorse


FWIW, if you think he hasn't spotted Lexington (and I think that's what you think), then I think you should take the calculated risk.

If you are right, you will gut a 6-carrier operation and force him to return-to-base to refuel and reload.

If you sink the oilers, how far can he pursue you at full speed? Even if you miss/ damage the oilers, you escape if he has to pause to refuel first.

. . . on the otherhand, I am an old cavalryman -- we're known for being swift afoot, not swift of thought.

After two days of attacks at Pearl, KB will probably go back to Palau to get ordnance anyway. The KB might well end up in the SAME HEX as the oilers and has superior attack range. IIRC he also flew of some dive bombers to Midway. It might be a one-sided strike.

Even if he hits it just right and is able to hit the unprotected oilers, there is no reason to believe the fuel situation of the KB will be any worse than Lexington. JJ can just detach the short legged DD's and likley pursue Lexington to her death.

It will be exciting to watch, though, so I changed my vote. [:D]

[Cribtop]

First, I can confirm that in AE the KB starts with full tanks. Second, the oilers are the fast 19kt variety and are a very valuable asset for the IJN. This must be weighed against a 40% or so chance you will lose the Lex. Tough call but it's fun to see you pursuing a bold strategy. I think what would swing me against the Op is to remember this is Scenario 2 and you specifically picked an opponent to push you to the wall on auto-vic. Thus, you may need to commit your CVs to a desperate defense for all the marbles in late '42. One less CV at that moment could swing the balance of that battle and thus the war.

How's that for a dramatic response?

[Nomad]

I quote myself:

ORIGINAL: Nomad

Do not defend, attack only. [8D]

Going along with your thinking, I would consider putting all three CVs in Northern Pacific and attack anything he sends there, KB will probably be in the South Pacific and there isn't much you can do about that.

Go for hitting the AOs, they are very valuable to him.

[desicat]

What are the chances that the Lex is compromised already? You have to factor in that possibility when considering the AO strike. If the Lex has a greater than 90% chance of escaping unscathed then Cribtop is probably correct in his reasoning.

[Cap Mandrake]

I think the probability of loss of Lexington is more than 40%...at LEAST 42-43% [:)]

The suspected Replenishment TF and the KB are only 14 hexes apart. Seems to me there is every reason to believe they will rendezvous this turn. I don't think you can even trust the mouseover intel on TF direction for the replenishment TF and even if you could, why couldn't they just have new ordered to rendezvous by moving SE or S?

I suppose if Lex were to move North undetected, stand off well to west of a possible rendezvous point and then try to intercept the oilers the NEXT day, it might work. Even then, you would run the risk of getting run over if KB moved West after a rendezvous to get ammo. Either way, good to pus soem PBY's at Midway.

[desicat]

Don't forget to factor in that he has to do something with the Shokaku, she can't steam around forever with that torpedo hole in her side.

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: desicat

Don't forget to factor in that he has to do something with the Shokaku, she can't steam around forever with that torpedo hole in her side.

This is true. JJ might detach Shokaku and a few escorts but she was said to be not smoking and can probably conduct flight ops. I'm not sure you even want Lex to run into a damaged Shokaku with her superb flight crews. She might be out of torps but the Vals could kill you too.

[Canoerebel]

12/09/41

I won't finish issuing orders for the next turn until tomorrow morning, so I'm open to further comments. Very helpful insights and suggestions thus far - thanks gents. For instance, Cap's comment about sending more PBYs to Midway is a timely reminder. I am about ready to begin staging PBYs from Hawaii to Wake to Guam to the Philippines, but I can instead send one to Midway to augment the search.

Thanks, too, Cribtop for the KB fuel info; and to several of you having enough knowledge to say the oilers, if sunk, would be a meaningful blow.

Desicat makes a good point about Shokaku; and what is the likely destination for KB: Kwaj? Truk? Palau?

I am a good 12 hours away from making a decision, but I feel much better "armed" now to make a knowledgeable one.

Highlights from the turn:

1. West Virginia went down. This is totally my fault. I am ashamed of myself.

2. As you can gather, the KB moved to the northwest. No additional strikes on Pearl.

3. Steve left a transport convoy at Kuantan without CAP, and the RAF hammered a bunch of ships including three xAK, two AK, one LSD, and one xAP. The Japanese took Kuantan and Kota Bahru. That means enemy LBA can now project pretty far south, so I'll have to move Force Z a bit further east.

4. Tons - I mean TONS - of sub action, mostly ineffective.

5. Tons - I mean TONS - of hammering of Allied xAKLs in the South China Sea and Philippine Sea, with a few other classes sprinkled in.

6. Mini KB moved a tad bit south again, SE of Davao.

7. I'm adopting the Nemo-inspired plan to defend Palembang, though I'm already getting a bit of a late start. But I'll see if I can put some teeth into that defense.

8. I "bought" the big naval HQ at Manila and will extract part of it to a safer zone.

9. No idea, yet, what Steve might have in mind, but I'm mulling over all possibilities I can think of, including China first, Russia first, India, Oz, SoPac, Hawaii, and West Coast raid (of some sort).

[bradfordkay]

ORIGINAL: desicat

Don't forget to factor in that he has to do something with the Shokaku, she can't steam around forever with that torpedo hole in her side.

Sure she can - if the damage is light. One of Chez' I-boats put a torp into the Saratoga last week, but it only caused 10 flotation damage. I have a couple of important troops convoys I am sending to Australia that I need for her to escort, so I have no fears of keeping her at sea indefinitely - besides, she's off NZ right now and the nearest shipyard that can patch her is in Pearl - so why rush her out of there with only 10 flotation damage?

[Cribtop]

Cap, the odds of losing Lex are approximately 720.98112346784 to 1, but without my tricorder it is difficult to be precise. [:D]

[John 3rd]

If you can take out those AOs you win a massive victory. They cannot be replaced. It is as simple as that. Very bold, gutsy move and I like it a lot. The chance of catching a damaged CV is also a nice enticement too...

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

12/10/41

I won't finish issuing orders for the next turn until tomorrow morning, so I'm open to further comments. Very helpful insights and suggestions thus far - thanks gents. For instance, Cap's comment about sending more PBYs to Midway is a timely reminder. I am about ready to begin staging PBYs from Hawaii to Wake to Guam to the Philippines, but I can instead send one to Midway to augment the search.

Thanks, too, Cribtop for the KB fuel info; and to several of you having enough knowledge to say the oilers, if sunk, would be a meaningful blow.

Desicat makes a good point about Shokaku; and what is the likely destination for KB: Kwaj? Truk? Palau?

I am a good 12 hours away from making a decision, but I feel much better "armed" now to make a knowledgeable one.

Highlights from the turn:

1. West Virginia went down. This is totally my fault. I am ashamed of myself.

2. As you can gather, the KB moved to the northwest. No additional strikes on Pearl.

3. Steve left a transport convoy at Kuantan without CAP, and the RAF hammered a bunch of ships including three xAK, two AK, one LSD, and one xAP. The Japanese took Kuantan and Kota Bahru. That means enemy LBA can now project pretty far south, so I'll have to move Force Z a bit further east.

4. Tons - I mean TONS - of sub action, mostly ineffective.

5. Tons - I mean TONS - of hammering of Allied xAKLs in the South China Sea and Philippine Sea, with a few other classes sprinkled in.

6. Mini KB moved a tad bit south again, SE of Davao.

7. I'm adopting the Nemo-inspired plan to defend Palembang, though I'm already getting a bit of a late start. But I'll see if I can put some teeth into that defense.

8. I "bought" the big naval HQ at Manila and will extract part of it to a safer zone.

9. No idea, yet, what Steve might have in mind, but I'm mulling over all possibilities I can think of, including China first, Russia first, India, Oz, SoPac, Hawaii, and West Coast raid (of some sort).

He can live without the oilers. Can you live without the Lex?

"You never gamble more than you can afford to lose"

[Nemo121]

You are risking something far more important for your forces than some oilers ate for him.

You are risking losing a strategically important asset in order to sink some AOs which can be easily replaced with slightly less capable ones. Madness!!!!

It isnt worth it. Just detach a CL and a couple of DDs from the screen and risk them instead. With Japanese damage controln1hit is 1 kill for those AOsand what you risk won't be strategically vital assets.

[Canoerebel]

Orders for 12/10/41

I chewed over the KB/Lexington situation for a long time before reaching a decision. I just sent the turn back to Steve. Here's what I decided to do, and why:

Lexington: She's in a bit of an awkward position. Any direction I send her could possibly run her into the KB. North is as good a way as any to "retire." So I'm sending her essentially north, with a slight jog to the east to bring her within range of the replenishment TF assuming it continues in the same direction and at the same speed. If the oilers slow or change course, Lex should pass well to the west with nobody the wiser. Meanwhile, Allied oilers will depart Pearl heading north, and Seattle heading west, just in case I need a mid-ocean refueling. Lex's TF is moving at nine hexes per turn.

Patrols: I have a big patrol squadron at Midway augmented by Lexington's Vindicators (I stripped them to fly Wake's F43s to Lex a few days ago). I've also moved a patrol squadron to Laysan Island (no base force, but it will for a few days, and later I can send an AV). This should cover KB's path as long as it moves SW, W, or NW.

KB: KB is moving nine hexes per turn. I am surprised Steve sent her NW - I was expecting her to move W or SW towards Kwaj or Truk. I'm not sure what he's doing. Possibly he wants the carriers in position to protect a landing at Wake. Much more unlikely he will be covering a snap invasion of Midway. Least likely of all (in my opinion) is that he caught wind of Lexington and set a trap with his oilers.

Replenishment TF: To my surprise this TF moved nine hexes per turn to the NW. If it does the same tomorrow, Lexington should be within range. But it wouldn't surprise me if Steve arranged for a mid-ocean meeting with the KB somewhere to the NE or E of Midway.

Enemy Sub: That IJ sub moved six hexes to the NE last turn - a route that put her closer to Lex. I didn't catch a whiff of any enemy patrol aircraft tailing Lex, but I can't be sure.

[witpqs]

This is a total guess, but perhaps he moved KB in that direction before moving toward Kwajalein to avoid additional Samurai Surface Forces.

[Blackhorse]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

Cap, the odds of losing Lex are approximately 720.98112346784 to 1, but without my tricorder it is difficult to be precise. [:D]

Never tell me the odds!
- Kirk, James T. CAPT

[Canoerebel]

12/10/42

A great day for the Allies, but now the nail-chewing time begins:

CenPac: Lexington closed with the Japanese oilers, which also got too close to Midway, where Lex's Vindicators are based. During a series of afternoon aerial attacks, eight AOs and two DDs suffered repeated attacks. All eight oilers suffered damage ranging from "heavy fires" to "heavy fires/heavy damage." I bet most of them go under. The two destroyers also suffered "heavy fires/heavy damage." I haven't looked at the turn file yet to see how close the KB is, but I assume Lex has to run for her life. (I'll post more about that later). I played a hunch here, and I feel awfully good about the decision at the moment. I hope I still feel good in a few days.

Wake Island: I had sent Lex towards Wake to handle an invasion force. She got sidetracked, but sure enough here came an invasion force escorted by two CL. I wish I had two Lex's available. The Japanese took the island after a shock attack.

SoPac: Steve made a few mistakes in sending unescorted or lightly escorted amphbious TFs to Rabaul and Tulagi. At Rabaul, they met up with CA Louisville and CL Adelaide, which dispatched 5 xAK, a PB, and two DD (the latter were in a separate TF). The Japanese lost 59 squads destroyed. To the east, I had sent Le Triomphant to Tulagi to suck the fuel dry before moving to Rabaul. She encountered and sank a CM and an xAK, destroying 34 squads in the process. The Allies got lucky with both combats, because I hadn't expected the enemy to arrive, yet, and my ships would have been easy pickings for a stronger escort.

Philippines: The Japanese land at Iba.

Hong Kong: The first Japanese attack comes off at 1:2 and does much more damage to them.

DEI: CL Marblehead took two torpedoes. Don't know if she has a chance as I haven't looked at the file yet.

[Ossian]

ORIGINAL: Blackhorse

Never tell me the odds!
- Kirk, James T. CAPT

Solo, Han. Space scoundrel, surely? [:)]