Defender of the Revolution: Q-Ball v Tarhunnas

[EntropyAvatar]

If it's true that Q-Ball has lost less than 15% of his industry and 40% or so loss rate leads to roughly historical capacity, doesn't that indicate that something is seriously out of balance?

After all, Tarhunnas has accomplished quite a bit in terms of destroying Soviet industry. Does all that really add up to less than half the historical damage? I hope my recall is way off on the 40% number.

[squatter]

Is the point about hitting historical Soc production that

a) you have to move 50% of your total factories to hit historical?

or

b) you have to move 50% of each individual factory to hit historical?

This was never cleared up in earlier threads

[Flaviusx]

He hasn't lost 15% of his capacity, but actually far more than that.

In case people haven't noticed, a great deal of his aircraft production went up in smoke. It's gone. No transports till 43, except for the silly biplanes. Half his shturmovik production. No Pe-2s. Etc.

Railcap is at 60% efficiency. This is very bad.

His manpower is down about a third.

His armament pool is rapidly dwindling to zero.

This isn't a happy place to be.

[Peltonx]

Tarhunnas has done better in the center, destoryed more units and factorys.
I have done better in the south and destoryed more AP and HVY units. I beleive my loses are less then his also.

Tarhunnas has destoryed

51 Armaments only 14%
29 Heavy Industry 13%

I have destoryed

141 Armaments 38%
58 Heavy Industry 25%

We both advanced about at the same speed in the north and center. I advanced much faster in the south. He bagged Moscow and I didn't.

Be interesating to see how both play out to see whats more important.

So the rail system might be little over powered, but close.

Why would his AP pool drop that fast if he only lost 14%?

[cpt flam]

Q-Ball actually I changed some tacbombers to Yak 7A (from memori) they carry rockets
will keep inform of effectiveness

[Q-Ball]

Turn 21: Mud

It's still mud season, so I am posting a quick update of production.

Attached are current production numbers. I figure to lose more in the snow, including 7 Arm and 7 HI stuck in Stalino. I also figure to lose Manpower in Stalino, as I don't think I can hold the town. We'll see.

German Plans:

Most of Tarhunnas's Panzers have disappeared from the front; at least PzGp 3 and 4 seem to be gone. That is of concern.

Those groups were the most beat-up in the Summer; they lost 3 units outright, and really wore down around Moscow. So, there could be some withdrawing to re-coup losses. More likely, they are headed south.

The first snow offensive is obvious; Tarhunnas will attack the DONBAS cities, and clear the place. This is obvious for sure. I am prepared best I can, though he can make progress if he wants to.

I think he is going to move more Panzers to take out my CRIMEA bridgehead. He can't leave it alone; he certainly can't keep watching 20 hexes of front with 4 German divisions and all Romanians. He must address that!

I have been sending reinforcements there, but it's a slow process via boat.

Regardless of what happens, Tarhunnas might force me back on the Crimea bottleneck, where I have treches, but one thing he can't do is build trenches. So, this will be a focus area regardless of what happens.

[Mehring]

Not saying it isn't worth having but don't build up false hopes in your Crimea bridgehead. The game doesn't allow you to use rail cap in a net cut off from the main net. That being the case you will find it impossible to maintain an offensive from this area. Further, it will take months to link it to the main net even if you clear the Germans. You will be hard pressed just to keep your Crimea units up to a reasonable strength and any offensive will rapidly deplete your forces.

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: Mehring

Not saying it isn't worth having but don't build up false hopes in your Crimea bridgehead. The game doesn't allow you to use rail cap in a net cut off from the main net. That being the case you will find it impossible to maintain an offensive from this area. Further, it will take months to link it to the main net even if you clear the Germans. You will be hard pressed just to keep your Crimea units up to a reasonable strength and any offensive will rapidly deplete your forces.

I realize there are limitations out of the Crimea. In 1942, I may be pulling back in there like a frightened Turtle. The area is brittle.

But it's a major PITA for the Germans, and for Tarhunnas, because right now I am 3 hexes from his primary Rail Line in the South, and in between me and that line is only Romanians and Dnepr, both of which disappear in the Blizzard. I intend only to make this enough of a problem that he has to divert forces to defend it.

The main effort won't be out of the Crimea, it will be somewhere else. I want to see what happens in the Snow to decide fully, but I have my ideas on where I want to attack.....

[neuromancer]

ORIGINAL: Klydon
I think more seem to be biting the dust due to movement than before (or so it seems to me).

I think they might be getting carried away there. The older 38s and IIIs were tried and true designs, and thus pretty reliable at this point. There would always be breakdowns of course, but not in huge quantities like that. Although I'd have to spend more effort than I feel up to to find how many serious breakdowns you'd be looking at (throwing a track was a common tank problem and could be fixed in a few hours).

Now the Panthers and Tiger Is, they had problems. IIRC The 2nd SS Panzer division was formed and included a battalion of Panthers, and not one made it to the front for their first battle; they all broke down on the way.

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx
That thrust NE of Moscow looks like victory disease to me. Do what you can to prevent their relief. A dead panzer corps is not an even exchange for losing all the Moscow factories, but it hurts.

Heh, good description. T. had some comments on that in his thread, and as he admitted to it being an over reach to Q-Ball, I can safely say that this was an 'oops'. I looked at the map when I was reading the thread and thought 'what the heck are those guys doing way out there?'

Well, apparently they decided they liked Russian food and wanted to eat more of it for the next few years.



I think the industry movement rules are too easy on the Russians, should be more of an effort to dissassemble all the heavy gear, pack it up on trains, haul it across the country, and then reassemble it. Most board games limit you to only a couple cities cleared out a turn (and most turns are a month long in a board game) and those industry are unavavilable for nearly a year.

[Lieste]

I don't think it is a capacity problem over the whole SU, but more one of how much can be done in one place simultaneously - once the local rail is saturated, then you start getting problems with efficiency and there is no additional capacity, no matter how many trains exist elsewhere...

As a minimum the move should occur during the supply phase of the next week, rather than immediately and it could be that larger factories take longer - the quantity evacuated dictated by the unmolested duration after the start of the evacuation this should reduces the observed tendency to leave factories producing till the 11th hour, then spiriting them away (and also the counter-trend to see all of the industry lost in one fell swoop because it is possible to try this...)

[Q-Ball]

Turn 22: Snow

The Germans started their Snow Offensives, and the first turn didn't do a whole lot IMO. He still has the opportunity to cause a bunch of damage though.

Around TULA, 2 Panzer Groups attacked toward Lipetsk. They didn't get close though, but I took the precaution of moving the rest of the HI there. Tambov is empty. There really isn't anything left to do there, other than killing Russians; a big encirclement is probably not in the cards for him this turn, but he could bite-off a couple units here and there.

Around STALINO, I knew Tarhunnas's #1 priority was clearing the two city hexes, which he did. Good job. As far as accomplishing anything else, he can rout and disrupt my formations, but other than that, I don't know what he can do. I placed my guys so a race to the sea is going to be tough.

I launched a total of 10 attacks on the line; these were meant to pick-on easy Infantry Units, and destroy their trench building.

Next turn should be the last for the Germans, because as the Germans you definitely don't want to leave yourself in the position of having a Panzer Spearhead cut in that last snow turn.

[Q-Ball]

Turn 22: Snow, and Assessment

Check out how large the overall line is; it's long. Even if Tarhunnas straightens out in several areas, I count a front, as it stands now, of 117 hexes, NOT including territory covered by the Finns.

The Germans have maybe 100 to 110 Infantry Divisions at this point, which means he doesn't even have a division for every hex. He has a full division in linear fashion along almost the entire line digging; I managed to move a few of these, interrupting his digging.

I think that the speed of his advance, coupled with the long long lines, are going to be trouble for Tarhunnas in winter. This is what my hope is. I think he has consistently chosen to attack and go deep for factories, rather than tighten up the lines, and start digging. While this has been a very good approach so far, and a winning one, it might be time to pay the piper. And I hope to make him pay.

If he is digging in depth, it must be with Fortified Zones, because I see almost all his Infantry right on the front. One of his zones was identified as the "70th Fortified Zone", so I think he is using alot of fort spam to get some depth going. That's a wise idea, though there are limits to that, particularly once those guys start freezing outside in the Blizzard. They also chew-up alot of replacements.

PLEASE do not council Tarhunnas on his long lines or the Crimea bulge. I probably need more help than he does. But the Blizzard figures to be strong for me....I hope.

[Erik Rutins]

Hi Q-Ball,

I agree that from the way things look from the Soviet side, he is not taking the blizzard all that seriously and you will have some good opportunities in the Winter. The Crimea situation could be a very painful situation for him and a serious strategic issue once the blizzard arrives, especially if you managed to link up to the Crimean bulge, which he will no doubt do everything possible to prevent. It could unhinge half the front if you succeed though.

Regards,

- Erik

[Sabre21]

I hope you are using your air recon. I use it a lot as the Soviets. If you can catch his armor in a clear hex you can at least know it is an armor unit.

[neuromancer]

As the Germans, the desire to keep pushing right until the last second is strong.  However, with all he accomplished, he should have been trying to stabilize and shorten his lines as soon as the mud hit.  Again, I think its 'victory disease', things seem to be going smashingly well, and even knowing what is coming you just can't stop.

I find as the Germans that once the Blizzard hits the biggest problem is rotating beat up units off the line to rest up after taking winter casualties without losing your line. You usually don't have enough urban or level 4 town hexes to rest up units in, and/ or too many units in need of rest and refit at the same time. And that is when the Soviets can push you back with ease.

That Romanian front looks BAD. I prefer to winter behind rivers to give my guys the best defensive position I can, anjd leave most of the minor allies to winter well behind the lines (and in the case of the Rumanians, hopefully be in condition to actually be useful for the spring).

[Peltonx]

I still thk your in good shape, because of the low number of AP and Hvy he destoried.

I beleive Tarhunnas pushed to far also, I have a set line I want to get to an as soon as I get to it I stop and start digging. Any armor moves to any area that is behind my time table.

It is very easy to get sucked into the one more city mind set.

Having said that I believe Tarhunnas winter strategy is to withdraw a hex before your turn. Your forses will have to move into several ZOC's before attacking. I thk he is hoping to suck in as many troops as he can into the Crimea then they will not beable to help during the summer months on the front that matters.

Unless you can link up your forses and get to the river your also looking at a huge gamble. Yes push north, BUT make sure you try to link back up with the main front and dont put to many eggs in that basket.

Pelton

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins

Hi Q-Ball,

I agree that from the way things look from the Soviet side, he is not taking the blizzard all that seriously and you will have some good opportunities in the Winter. The Crimea situation could be a very painful situation for him and a serious strategic issue once the blizzard arrives, especially if you managed to link up to the Crimean bulge, which he will no doubt do everything possible to prevent. It could unhinge half the front if you succeed though.

Regards,

- Erik

Thanks Erik, didn't know such high-ups were reading my AAR! I hope you are right that this Crimean-thing can unhinge.

The Dnepr doesn't help past the first Blizzard turn (turn 1, ICE levels are 7, so that is a problem). I will have to pound through the heavy forts along the river bank, but that won't take long. If I can rout 2 Romanian Infantry Divisions in the snow, what's going to happen in Blizzard?

ORIGINAL: Sabre21

I hope you are using your air recon. I use it a lot as the Soviets. If you can catch his armor in a clear hex you can at least know it is an armor unit.

I did, after I took those shots. Nothing that looks like a tank; just one infantry div. Nothing along the RR, where I would expect tanks to be. If Panzers are there, they will have to drive at least 2 hexes to the front, through swamp.

ORIGINAL: Pelton

I beleive Tarhunnas pushed to far also, I have a set line I want to get to an as soon as I get to it I stop and start digging. Any armor moves to any area that is behind my time table.

Having said that I believe Tarhunnas winter strategy is to withdraw a hex before your turn. Your forses will have to move into several ZOC's before attacking. I thk he is hoping to suck in as many troops as he can into the Crimea then they will not beable to help during the summer months on the front that matters.

Tarhunnas has consistently surprised me, so I may be completely wrong in all my assumptions. He isn't dumb, and is a very clever player, which is why this game has been fun so far.

I don't see the one-hex withdraw; if he does, he will be leaving a solid line of trenches right off the bat. Because I saw "70th Fort Zone", I bet, though, he has at least 60-80 of those guys digging somewhere back of the line, so he has fallback positions ready.

My main targets initially are RAIL LINES; there are a couple important lines that are 3-5 hexes back of the front. I hope to cut them, and cause problems with his railnet.

[Klydon]

I seem to recall seeing this situation with the Crimea in a fair amount of AAR's. Most Germans screen the area off with Rumanians or push down to the bottleneck and try to leave a couple of German divisions with some Rumanians to watch the place and it just seems to go wrong for the Germans during the winter and become a major PITA. This game appears no different and I think Q-Ball could possibly make a lot of hay on the Rumanians. The Russians will run into logistics issues, units won't recover that well, etc but it will be a giant pita to the Germans and that is sort of the point of a winter offensive isn't it? [:D]

I don't know if there is a good solution for the Crimea as a German. I knocked it out fairly quick in my AAR, but it could also be argued that it will cost me in the long run because it probably means I don't stand a very good chance to get Stalino in 1941. (I had diverted a panzer corps to the Crimea to speed things up there, but it took pretty much 3 turns to do the job, pull it out and get it headed towards the Stalino area). Maybe next time I will look to screen off the Crimea and use some mountain units for the blizzard. The whole point there is economy of force I think.

Looks like it is going to be a very interesting blizzard coming up. [:)]

[Mynok]

The Germans used 11th army to take the Crimea historically. This is still the most viable option IMO.

[Mehring]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins

Hi Q-Ball,

I agree that from the way things look from the Soviet side, he is not taking the blizzard all that seriously and you will have some good opportunities in the Winter. The Crimea situation could be a very painful situation for him and a serious strategic issue once the blizzard arrives, especially if you managed to link up to the Crimean bulge, which he will no doubt do everything possible to prevent. It could unhinge half the front if you succeed though.

Regards,

- Erik

Thanks Erik, didn't know such high-ups were reading my AAR! I hope you are right that this Crimean-thing can unhinge.

As before, I very much doubt it. Here's why, in detail.

T21 from my PBEM. You will see the situation is not disimilar to your game. I've been planning my Crimea 'thorn' for months, fortifying the line of the Dnepr from the mouth to Zaporozhye and down the Molochna to Melitopol. I am now forced to collapse a previous extension of the Dnepr defence, running Volchya-Gaychur.

Like yourself, I am using rivers to protect me in summer and autumn which will provide no protection to the Axis when I go onto strategic offensive.