Decline & Fall AAR

[composer99]

ORIGINAL: Klydon

Great job on this AAR and thanks for doing it. Very instructive of a game period that perhaps many do not see.

Thanks for the thumbs up, it means a lot to see a comment that's not mine. [:)]

I do have a couple of questions/comments:

The Japanese Tokai air unit: In a word; worthless! (I can imagine the comment when that unit was drawn out of the pool. [:D] )

Quite. Of course, it does fulfill, potentially, one useful function, which is as an advance picket to slow down the Allies - if you are playing with "In the Presence of the Enemy". If you get the chance, throw that out in a forward position you don't want to defend, and make the Allies spend an impulse setting up to bypass it (or shoot it down).

The Japanese have a lot of carriers coming on line, but unfortunately don't have the aircraft to fill them up. While the Allied navy is going to be truly daunting, bolstering the Japanese navy with 4-5 flat tops WITH air could really result in a big time bloody nose. I am guessing between oil issues and time, this is hard for the Japanese to pull off.

Yes, I suspect that the Japanese carrier fleet reinforcements would be more useful when playing without separate carrier plane units. The Japanese begin with 13 carrier plane units and 11 pilots to fill them with, but the problem is that unless you're willing to leave a lot of crap in your force pool you'll have a hard time filling the light carriers. On the plus side, this leaves spare pilots to put in better planes as your carrier reinforcements come on line.

Now, between them the CW and US get 39 carrier planes and 30 pilots on the map at the start of the scenario, but (fortunately for Japan) some of them are based in Europe.

Anyway, all that is to say that the Japanese, if they can keep a carrier fleet intact, and the oil to sail it with on the map, for the bulk of the scenario they can keep the Allies honest. As I mentioned in a previous post, sinking an Allied sealift unit in this scenario is, in my mind, equivalent to a victory point, because the Allies have so little sealift and don't really get to replace any losses until summer 1945.

So the Allies can't take any chances whatsoever with their lift.

I noticed there are two Shinano counters in the reserve pool. They appear to be identical except one has a air group rating of 3 and the other has a air group rating of 6. Just wondering what the deal is on them.

The Shinano itself begins the game as a battleship. You get a chance to replace it as a carrier. Originally it was just a size-6 unit, but the 2008 annual introduced some more replacement units, including a lighter size-3 option for the Shinano. The smaller carrier is cheaper to build. In a normal game if the Shinano BB is on the map or in the construction pool, starting in 1942 you can take it out of the game and put one of the Shinano CV units (your choice) into the construction pool.

As far as its appearance in the reserve pool goes, I'm not actually certain how that works in MWiF. The scenario set-up chart shows the Shinano arrives as a reinforcement on the map in November/December. So I'm guessing somewhere along the line the Japanese get to pick one of the two classes and that's the one that ends up on the map?

(I have appended the relevant picture to the bottom of this post.)

Keep up the good work. Very enjoyable to follow along.

Thanks again!

[composer99]

One subtlety of the USSR set up is, like the German set up, it must set up units such that they are adjacent to every Axis-controlled hex. The zone where this rule is in effect is "Europe", which I'm really hoping excludes Karelia.

[composer99]

Looking at the peripheral theatres first, here's the Russian garrison of Persia.

The only thing to worry about, in this scenario, is partisans. Persia has a partisan # of '4', which translates to a small but real chance of a partisan appearing each turn. I will show the partisan table when there is no USSR garrison to show this.

Partisans in Persia are bad because, if they get to sit on oil, the power controlling it can't use the oil. What is more, the partisans can damage the oil, costing the controlling power build points to repair (on top of not being able to use the oil).

In a scenario where the Japanese could still roam free, the USSR would probably have to consider a stronger coastal defence. But since this is not the case, they can get away with just putting in enough garrison to cover against any possibility of partisans.

[composer99]

Here is Persia's "partisan profile" when it has no garrison. A 4% probability of a partisan each turn isn't big... but why take the chance?

[composer99]

When the USSR has the appropriate garrison, you can see that Persia is no longer on the list of countries eligible to receive partisans hostile to the USSR.

[Ur_Vile_WEdge]

Curious; this set up is legal?

I ask because at least in old fashioned over the board WiF, the Soviets only are allowed to put a Mot, 2 garrisons, and a Cav in the Asia/Pacific maps (oh, and a cav div), which Persia is part of.

I realize they resized the map, but did they also change where some of the theaters are in the MWiF version?

[Plainian]

Should there not be one more garrison unit in the Prypet marshes SW of the 3-2? Else there will be Russian start up hexes not in a ZOC?

ORIGINAL: composer99

Here is the revised German set up.

To bolster up the Ukraine sector and still meet the rule requirement, I had to leave a thin screen of crappy infantry in the Baltics and [s]Belarus[/s] Belorussia (darn period name conventions).

(On the plus side, the Germans know where they'll be getting the units to build to bolster their Balkan, Italian, and southern French defences now...)



Canny readers might spot the V-rockets in Poland (They set up in the Eastern Front region). I'm going to move them on account of the possibility of partisans popping up. At any rate, they will be redeploying to the West to try and strat bomb England. Surely the rocket attacks will compel the British to seek terms!

[composer99]

ORIGINAL: Ur_Vile_WEdge

Curious; this set up is legal?

I ask because at least in old fashioned over the board WiF, the Soviets only are allowed to put a Mot, 2 garrisons, and a Cav in the Asia/Pacific maps (oh, and a cav div), which Persia is part of.

I realize they resized the map, but did they also change where some of the theaters are in the MWiF version?

I wondered a bit about that. A little bit of Persia sticks out into the European map, so it appears to count enough.

As it happens, MWiF let me set those units up, so it's legal per MWiF. (Also makes sense, apart from Karelia where else would you put garbage units like this?)

[composer99]

ORIGINAL: Plain Ian

Should there not be one more garrison unit in the Prypet marshes SW of the 3-2? Else there will be Russian start up hexes not in a ZOC?

ORIGINAL: composer99
[...]

Yes, the program picked up on that one (and a few others, such as Sevastopol) when I tried to end the German set up phase. Having the rules automatically enforced == priceless.

Below is what I ended up changing around there to make it work. As the Germans I wasn't really worried about getting outflanked in the Pripet; everything except for cavalry units gets disorganized when moving through swamp hexes, so I figured the USSR wouldn't load up in the marshes.

(As it happens, as I do the USSR set up I must concur with this assessment. Smashing into, say, Rumania, is a better use of units than seeping around in the marshes.)

[Ur_Vile_WEdge]

I wondered a bit about that. A little bit of Persia sticks out into the European map, so it appears to count enough.

As it happens, MWiF let me set those units up, so it's legal per MWiF. (Also makes sense, apart from Karelia where else would you put garbage units like this?)

Hmm, maybe, maybe.

But as for the latter question, you always need more fodder on the eastern front. A ZoC to stall a threatened counterattack, bodies to amoeba around the often loose enemy lines, a poor schlubb to take as a loss. There are always things you can do with units, no matter how pathetic they are.

[composer99]

As far as Manchuria/Vladivostok goes, here is the USSR set up, with the previous Japanese set up visible.

The Japanese pretty much focused their defence facing Vladivostok (Manchuria is just too big...).

The Red Army in the region is similarly understaffed. The bulk of the forces are in or around Vladivostok themselves, while token forces are elsewhere.

Of course, unlike the Japanese, the Red Army can reasonably expect to add reinforcements along its planned axes of advance into Manchuria...

[composer99]

While setting up to face the German Ostheer and its satellite armies, the Red Army has to keep in mind the opportunity to get Guards Banner Armies (depending on whether you are playing with that optional rule or not - as it happens, I am).

These units are in the reserves, and any time the USSR wins a land combat against a German-controlled unit (the bolded part is very important - it means that minor power units controlled by Germany - the Finnish, Rumanian, Hungarian, and Bulgarian forces - count for the purposes of this rule), as long as it wins by a large enough margin it can promote up to one unit per combat into a Guards Banner Army (or division).

If applicable, you remove the unit to be promoted from the map (placing it in the force pools) and place the new Guards Banner unit on the map in its place. This is a great rule for the USSR as it can add some additional oomph (and unit density) to its forces.

(As a final note, the USSR can get Guards Banner units out of a land combat the Germans initiate, if the Germans lose badly enough; this happens to be a fairly rare occurrence, sadly.)

[composer99]

The USSR got very lucky in its air unit draws, and ended up adding both the Spitfire squadrons the Commonealth lent it to its starting on-map forces. The end result is that not only does the USSR fighter force outnumber the Germans by 2:1, they also are of comparable quality (where normally the USSR has a hard time matching the quality of the German air forces in a full campaign).

Perhaps more significantly, the USSR can split its fighters or concentrate them as it wishes, while the Germans had to set theirs up for maximum defensive coverage. Furthermore, the Germans began with two bomber squadrons in theatre, while the USSR has six, including two hefty tank busters.

It's gonna be a good scenario for the Red Army Air Force. Hulk smash tanks!

The screenshot shows the USSR set up tray and the air units drawn. The USSR technically starts with more air units than this, but only enough pilots to fill the units shown: the rest are in reserve.

(Incidentally, aside from the rule about setting up units adjacent to every Axis hex, the USSR is probably the only major power starting this scenario where I have looked at its forces available and thought to myself "yes, that's enough firepower to get things done".)

[Shannon V. OKeets]

Replacements for naval units arrive in a subphase of that name during the Reinforcement phase. If you choose to not take the replacement, then that option is still available to you each turn. Meanwhile the replacement unit lingers in the Reserve Pool.

[composer99]

Here is the Karelia front. Not much going on here: the USSR doesn't really care about most of Finland.

What it does care about is the port of Petsamo and the resource in the hex. Left unmolested, Petsamo provides 1 resource to Germany each turn, which, given Germany's production multiple, ends up granting anywhere from 1.5 to 2 build points per turn.

Now, really, the Red Army could just leave a garrison in Murmansk to prevent the Finns from getting frisky and cut the rail/road line.

But where's the fun in that? These second- and third-line units are assembled to assault Petsamo. This has the plus side of securing the resource for the Allies well before I reasonably expect to conquer Finland.

If it turns up that I've made a set up error and have uncovered hexes on the front line, I will probably call off this part of the campaign in order to redistribute the units, and stick with the cut-the-line option.

[composer99]

The Leningrad front.

Here, the USSR is built up to deliver a knock-out blow against the Finns and to hold the line just outside the Baltic States.

The USSR's expectation, based on the German set up, the armoured spearheads the USSR has in Smolensk, and the fact that Germany isn't likely to want to attack the USSR on its own soil (giving the USSR a production boost), is that it won't face any attacks despite the weakness of its line here.

The Finnish campaign will probably be slow going until the USSR gets more air units on the map. It's also worth noting that the Red Army forces in theatre are all (with one exception) "winterized" land units, which means they are better at fighting in the winter than other land units.

It's important for the Red Army to have this capacity fighting Finland, because all Finnish units are winterized.

[composer99]

The central/Belorussian front.

This front has weaker forces up front and in the marshes, and big armoured spearheads around Smolensk.

The objective of this force is to press forward, thus deterring a German attack on the flanks, and encourage the outnumbered Germans to withdraw towards Poland.

[composer99]

The Ukraine/Rumanian fronts.

Here is where most of the Red Army's heavy hitters are located.

As far as the USSR is concerned, putting Germany on an "Ultra SlimFast Low-Oil Diet"™ is priority number one. If the Germans can't reorganize their shiny tanks and planes, who cares how many they have?

As such, the strongest concentration of USSR forces is here, and the USSR is ready to throw down its offensive chit to get the job done. Not right away, of course.

The forces facing the Germans in Eastern Poland are also powerful. Their job is to force the remains of Army Group South back to the Vistula line, encouraging the German forces north of the Pripet Marshes to withdraw as well.

(Finally, the forces in the Crimea are going to crush the Rumanian garrison of Sevastopol.)

[composer99]

While the previous post showed the last main sector of the USSR's set up, I did want to show a couple of other features, so here is the Caucasus.

I want to draw your attention to the city of Tiflis, in Georgia.

You'll notice that there are two factory stacks in the city, with a green border. The green border means that factory stacks have been railed from elsewhere (anywhere you might see a "blank" factory stack, such as, say, Kharkov) to here. The USSR often has cause to transfer its factories during a German invasion.

I also want to draw your attention to the stockpiled oil in Baku (which is covered by the oil marker). Major powers can save oil that they don't use for reorganization or for production to add more oil markers like this to the map. Stockpiled oil can then be used like any other oil resource.

[composer99]

Anyway, on to setting up the Commonwealth and US and showing the Allied set up.

If MWiF catches any errors in my USSR set up, I will let you know that I have made changes in this post. Unless they are significant, however, I won't put up a screenshot.