Fall Gelb

[rkr1958]

Setup - 1939 France & Italy.

[paulderynck]

Note the 1 factor French and German AA and AT guns. They are from an earlier version of Mech in Flames - since replaced.

[rkr1958]

ORIGINAL: paulderynck

Note the 1 factor French and German AA and AT guns. They are from an earlier version of Mech in Flames - since replaced.

Interesting. I guess the French player was ahead of his time. He scrapped them.

By the way, on the map, what do those fists with numbers in white mean?

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: rkr1958

ORIGINAL: paulderynck

Note the 1 factor French and German AA and AT guns. They are from an earlier version of Mech in Flames - since replaced.

Interesting. I guess the French player was ahead of his time. He scrapped them.

By the way, on the map, what do those fists with numbers in white mean?

warspite1

It means ADG forgot how to create tasteful looking maps [8|][:-] - something Steve thankfully rectified [&o]

Iirc I think they are to do with the Partisan rule.

[brian brian]

I think the ADG map was just fine and time should not have been spent re-doing it. The users do that on their own anyway, and you will never get 100% of players to agree on what is a good version. But that's water under the bridge, ten years ago, at this point.


Note that this Fall Gelb is quite different than the one talked over in this thread. It doesn't invade Rotterdam at all, but rather goes for the more macho approach of marching straight through Belgium. Note the suggestions to attack in the Rain and to ground-strike the best French concentration - the French have to set up very carefully to march into Brussels while staying organized, and they frequently don't. (I do think it is better to spread out the Belgian INF though). No attack on Rotterdam and plenty of factors in Poland can avoid many possible problems for the Axis; giving the Germans an option to NOT pull the trigger in the West if things become unfavorable during the first turn. Though it also suggests completely ignoring Frederikshavn and potential Allied access to the Baltic. Also, Brussels is not as difficult to take as you might think if you understand all your options on the attack, and sometimes the defender doesn't maximize all their options either.

Also note that each side is paying attention to the southern end of the Maginot. Yugoslavia joining the Allies while the Germans cross the Dyle and the Poles have only lost a unit or two could really get tricky for the Germans.


I've been pushing the counters around with the set-up developed in this thread. The Axis run into problems with all sorts of different good throws of the dice by the Allies. I don't play the Germans conservatively by any means, but the FG Lite strategy is really a large gamble.

[Jagdtiger14]

Brian, keep in mind this is from 1998. The game has changed quite a bit since then, in fact the game has changed quite a bit since Matrix settled on what would be in MWiF...ie...No Factories in Flames, which is a fantastic WiF addition. My concern about MWiF has been for many of these years of programing is that it will be seriously outdated by the time its first phase is completed, if that will ever happen.

The fist with the numbers in them is a partisan generator. USSR has a 25.

[TeaLeaf]

Personally, I wouldn't feel MWIF to be outdated if a few kits are not in it, but only if there would be a new edition of WIF. But that's just me.

Of course the WIF spin-offs (America in Flames, for example) are not included. To me that doesn't feel like a miss.
If I take a quick look at ADG's site, I can only think of Factories in Flames. Everything else looks like it is included. Or will be included in the future, like Guards Banner Armies or Convoys in Flames. Well, at least that's the plan, right?
I can only hope we are still alive when that happens, I always liked the creation of Russian GBA's [:D].

So exactly what is in WIF that didn't make into MWIF? Someone has an overview somewhere?

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: brian brian

I think the ADG map was just fine and time should not have been spent re-doing it. The users do that on their own anyway, and you will never get 100% of players to agree on what is a good version. But that's water under the bridge, ten years ago, at this point.

warspite1

Well for those of us that cannot abide those hideous Final Edition maps - grey(!) mountains and stupid orange fists - I had an e-mail exchange with Harry recently and asked if ADG could sell the MWIF style maps at WIF scale. He responded that they are looking at re-printing the maps later this year. He also mentioned he will be looking at the design.

So, whilst no promises, I have my fingers (and everything else) firmly crossed that these Final Edition maps are a thing of the past....

[Orm]

When this '98 attack through Belgium was made the reserves did not appear at once when the DOW was made. Back then they became available the following turn. This change had a huge impact on play.

[rkr1958]

ORIGINAL: Orm

When this '98 attack through Belgium was made the reserves did not appear at once when the DOW was made. Back then they became available the following turn. This change had a huge impact on play.

Maybe it was because of this attack that they made the change that reserves appear on a DOW?

[rkr1958]

I've been experimenting with some Fall Gelb strategies, specifically a strategy centered around a Belgium first, versus Netherlands first, strategy. For me this strategy has the advantage of keeping the CW out of Rotterdam or Amsterdam if the axis can pull off a one turn conquest of Belgium.

My (Germany) deployment and strategy that I've been investigation requires incredible luck to even be in position on the 3rd axis impulse to try. First is the weather. That is, fine weather I think is required. Second is the real threat of French and CW "surprise" ground strikes on Von Leeb and his stack, which is northeast of Liege, and the German stack southeast of Liege.

[rkr1958]

I've attached my game file for the screen cap above.

My first question is how would you deploy the Belgiums?

I'll show you my deployment in the next post.

Now, I constructed this situation by passing with everyone except Germany during this impulse. All German units east of Berlin are considered out of play. And, one may assume that the CW has Gort, 3 corps and 2 divisions supported by heavy escorts in the 3-box of the North Sea.

[rkr1958]

So assuming the following, which indeed assumes incredible luck.

1. Fine weather for the second axis impulse of Sep/Oct 1939.

2. The allies either through bad luck or no attempt do not disorganize any German land or air units in the West.

3. The Germans manage to disorganize both Brussels defenders.

4. And, the CW player deploys the Belgiums as I have.

Then, the Germans can manage a +11.611 assault, or blitz if the allies so choose, attack to take Brussels.

[rkr1958]

1. With four x 2 attack bombers (fighter-bombers) the chance of disorganizing a given unit during the surprise impulse is:

1 - 0.8^8 or 83.2%. This means that the chance of disorganizing BOTH defenders is 69.6%. This is absolutely the best case and produces a chance of winning (PWIN); i.e., taking Brussels, of 82.7% for an assault and 95.8% for a blitz. So obviously, or at least it seems obvious to me, the assault table is the better choice for the CW player even though the expected number of defenders killed is 1.74 versus 1.16. So, we'll assume the CW player selects the assault table. With all that said, given incredibly good luck the best the Germans get is a PWIN of 82.7%.

2. If only 1 of the 2 defenders is disorganized, which has a 27.9% chance, then PWIN drops to 68.9%.

3. And if no defenders are disorganized, which has a 2.8% chance, PWIN drops to 51.1%.

So my conclusion is that even if the German player gets the weather, organized ground and air units he needs, a Belgium first Fall Gelb is risky at best.

In two solitary plays with this strategy I didn't even get to a position to make this attack in Sep/Oct 1939. The first game saw the allies fail to disorganize critical German units but the weather immediately turned from fine. In the second game the weather stayed fined through the Sep/Oct 1939 turn but the CW managed to disorganize Von Leeb and his entire stack and the French managed to disorganize 1 of the 3 ground units in the stack southeast of Liege.

Comments?

[ashkpa]

With a Belgium only attack (leaving the Netherlands for later) and with ZOC's on surprise, then the Belgians should not set up in Brussels or Antwerp, keeping the Germans out of both.

[rkr1958]

ORIGINAL: ashkpa

With a Belgium only attack (leaving the Netherlands for later) and with ZOC's on surprise, then the Belgians should not set up in Brussels or Antwerp, keeping the Germans out of both.

So to counter that, if the Germans deploy with mech/armor in the West couldn't they get a breakthrough against the Belgium unit directly east of Antwerp, which would be northeast of Brussels, and just march into Antwerp and Brussels unopposed?

Of course this assume the Germans deploy two or three mech/armor units in the West, which I didn't. [:(]

[ashkpa]

You only set up in Liege and the Forest to the south or back on the FR border. No Blitz advances from those hexes.

[Centuur]

The Belgian CAV goes into Liège and the two INF I usually put on the coast west of Antwerp. The Axis can only get an assault on Liège and isn't able to cross the Dyle river into Brussels and Antwerp. Next impulse, the CW lands in Antwerp, the two Belgium INF go into Brussels and the French enter Belgium south of Brussels to get a frontline behind river lines. Of course, the British has put the BEF in the North Sea in their first impulse of the game...

Now, the next German impulse they should throw in the offensive chit to crack the line and take Brussels.

Also, to avoid the ground strikes of the first turn on a stack with a German HQ, put it in a forest, without any other units in it. That makes the possible outcome of grounds strikes a lot less interesting for the Allies...

[rkr1958]

ORIGINAL: ashkpa

You only set up in Liege and the Forest to the south or back on the FR border. No Blitz advances from those hexes.

ORIGINAL: Centuur

The Belgian CAV goes into Liège and the two INF I usually put on the coast west of Antwerp. The Axis can only get an assault on Liège and isn't able to cross the Dyle river into Brussels and Antwerp. Next impulse, the CW lands in Antwerp, the two Belgium INF go into Brussels and the French enter Belgium south of Brussels to get a frontline behind river lines. Of course, the British has put the BEF in the North Sea in their first impulse of the game...

Now, the next German impulse they should throw in the offensive chit to crack the line and take Brussels.

Also, to avoid the ground strikes of the first turn on a stack with a German HQ, put it in a forest, without any other units in it. That makes the possible outcome of grounds strikes a lot less interesting for the Allies...

So much for my Belgium-first strategy. [:(]

[Centuur]

Well, it isn't a bad strategy at all, since you are doing this in the first turn of the game. But it involves the taking of Brussels and therefore the expenditure of the offensive chit. It's somewhat of a high risk - high gain strategy.