Avoiding the Turkeyshoot – Marianas Scen Justus2 (J) vs nardiajn (A)

[Justus2]

One thing that seemed strange, though, is the air losses screen. It shows 2 Hellcats and a Zero lost in Air-Air, yet we had no air battles this turn? I checked the operational report, and it shows one of my zeros getting a kill, and a couple being written off (which I have the ops losses for). I know I’ve seen search planes engaged by CAP, I’m guessing in this case, my fighters were shot down by the patrol/recon aircraft? (261 Ku S-2 is based at Tinian, BTW)

Anyone have a better explanation? [&:]

[Justus2]

Here’s the situation after the turn. It looks like he’s trying to push his landing force back into Tinian, so I am sending my BBs once more into the breach. The CL with their TF was getting low on fuel, so I split it out. The largest CVTF I can see at this point is away to the SE (can it really have that many CLAAs???). [X(] However, weather is iffy so there may be another one I am not spotting.

Further north, the APA convoy my subs have been tracking disappeared again, but based on its past speed and course it should be somewhere between those subs. The CVE my Betties went after is part of a TF that also includes some landing ships. Not sure if it was going to turn north or south, but I’m guessing after the shock attack, he will try to reinforce Pagan with that group. So I am sending in a TF with a couple CAs for a night run, and moving KB within range (along with the Betties I mentioned).

Also, at the top, you can see my CVL strike force should reach Iwo this turn to refuel/rearm! [;)]

[Justus2]

27 JUNE

The early morning hours open with an explosion, as Ha-3 puts a torp into APA Doyen near Tinian! Great to see a mini-sub hit paydirt, and it also means that there must be some targets at Tinian for my BBs this time…

BANZAI!! [8D]
There were definitely targets. No escorts for some reason, so the BBs had gunnery practice. Usually, when one of my CA TFs surprises a transport group, I will sink a couple, damage a few, then hope I can chase down the stragglers or wonder if they make it back. Well, 40cm and 46cm BB guns leave no doubt… [X(] Sunk to the last ship. I was shocked when I saw the casualty totals, they had not started to unload yet. Based on the bombardment later in the turn, this was the better part of 3 Marine Rgts. I felt kinda guilty, especially on the 4th of July. But this definitely disrupted his landing attempt!

[Justus2]

There was another smaller TF that did start to unload, looking at the number of disablements it looks like they weren’t prepped for Tinian. I’m guessing they were re-directed after the first landing didn’t prove sufficient.

My brave remnants of LBA take off from Guam, and fight their way through a screen of Hellcats to get a few hits in. During the following landing phase, I got a pop-up saying amphibious landing at Tinian, but no animation, instead I heard some sinking noises so I think at least one of the damaged APAs sunk.

[Justus2]

The ground bombardment at the end of the turn identifies the new units landed: 6th, 2nd, and 8th Marie Rgts. However, only 8 raw AV between the three. I’m assuming the rest of those regiments were sunk on those transports. I posted a shot of the bombardment from 3 days ago to see the difference- seems like most of the increased AV is from existing units (27th, 305th, and 111th) recovering disabled squads.

Tinian forts are at 3, 88% to 4 (should be about 4 more days). Supplies are at 8800, I just realized a few days ago I could create a Barge TF at Guam, so I’ve been shuttling supplies with 5 LBs. They can carry about 200 per trip, one day there one day back. It will be less now, as he sent some unescorted Avengers against Guam this turn. His planes were chewed up, but LBs and torpedoes don’t mix… [:'(]

[Justus2]

As if that weren’t enough excitement for one turn, we also had a series of carrier strikes in the north near Pagan. The APA/LST convoy that my subs were tracking finally appears just off of Pagan, as I hoped. The Betties got lost, but KB launched coordinated strikes. Very efficient, the afternoon strike nicely finished off all the remaining ships from the morning’s attack. I was surprised by the low number of casualties until I looked closer – look at all the vehicles!! This must have been more armor units. My defenders at Pagan have no counter for the tanks, so it’s a good thing I sunk them before they got there! [;)]

[Justus2]

Al’s carriers struck back up north, however. I had sent a small 2CA TF into Pagan to disrupt his landing force, but they didn’t react into his TF offshore, and didn’t return north. I usually set two patrol points so they run in at night and back out in the morning, but something went wrong. [&:] They were caught by his morning air strikes. Only one bomb hit, but it really did a number on Haguro, heavily damaged.

[Justus2]

In the afternoon, he locates the KB… [X(] Luckily, he doesn’t have many escorts, and CAP whittles down some of his attackers. Always scary to see planes attacking my carriers, but their captains do a great job of evasive maneuvers. However, each of the ‘kaku’s takes a hit. The armored flight decks paid off, [;)] as Zuikaku shrugs the hit off, and Shokaku takes mostly system damage, both still operational.

[Justus2]

It’s time to lock in my gains, and prepare for the next round.

First, my CVL Strike TF finally reaches Iwo! After their epic raid across the North Pacific, they make it back to (relative) safety. They can’t quite entirely refuel (Iwo is now down to 500 fuel, but it gains 500 per day). The did rearm their sorties, but can’t reload torps. You can see the total haul below, as well as significant disruption of his convoys and hopefully distraction to his CVs that were searching for them.

KB is going to pull back, I’m angling a little NW just in case he tries driving his CVs due west to cut them off. If he does, KB will have to loop N toward Iwo, if not they can shift SW toward Pelileu. CVL TF is moving out to provide additional cover, and probably follow them to Pel to reload torps.

I was surprised to find that the BBs still had most of their main gun ammo (Nagato is about half, Yamato and Musahsi are at 7/9 and 8/9). I generally only use them for bombardments, so I expected they’d be empty. They still need to pull back and refuel, so they are headed to Babel. CarDiv2 (Hiyo and Ryujo) are covering.

I was able to create a few more mini-subs at Guam, and shift a couple to Tinian. Also have a couple regular subs with field repairs at Truk ready to head out again.

[Crackaces]

Strange results, my level 4 forts mean the attack comes off at 1-3,
but I still suffer most of the casualties. I assume it’s because I have no anti-tank weapons

Don't confuse firepower and AV .... AV determines if you retreat or not .. Firepower determines casualties

US armor is devastating ... Marines have the highest firepower to stacking limit concentration ..

[Justus2]

I forgot to post the ground combat at Pagan, he follows up his shock attack with a deliberate assault. Attack comes off at 1-2, I still suffer more casualties but at least he is suffering some, including a lot of vehicles disabled.

Supply is getting low here, 2300. I am loading another FT TF at Iwo, a CL/2DDs, that can carry about 600 per trip. We may have to use some creative routing, though, as I imagine he will be pushing his CVs in this area to track down the KB now that he’s tasted blood. [:D]

EDIT: Just saw Crackaces post as I was posting this one, I knew that firepower was another factor, but haven't had much experience with late-war units, so didn't know how much of a difference it would make. I knew the tanks would be part of the problem. Didn't realize the marines had a higher firepower as well! Thanks!!

[Justus2]

Thought this would be a good time to look at some overall numbers. You can see Al suffered heavy losses to his carrier air this turn, too many sorties had little or no escorts. Any turn I can come out ahead on air losses is a good one at this stage of the war. [8D] Overall losses are pretty close.

The right side shows his amphib losses, according to Tracker. I know there’s FOW involved, but I also know there are a lot of severely damaged ships not on the list, that won’t be useful for follow on waves either. The Allies start with a massive armada in this scenario, but I gotta hope this is putting a real dent in his ability to mount future major landings. [;)]

Here’s the total by class:
10 APA, 2 AGC, 6 AKA, 1 LSV, 2 LSD, 12 LST, 14 LCI, and 3 xAK and an xAP.
Neither of us have lost many capital ships (one CA each, and a CVE for him), and we have both lost a ton of subs (9 for him, 11 for me plus 4 minis).

[Justus2]

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

Strange results, my level 4 forts mean the attack comes off at 1-3,
but I still suffer most of the casualties. I assume it’s because I have no anti-tank weapons

Don't confuse firepower and AV .... AV determines if you retreat or not .. Firepower determines casualties

US armor is devastating ... Marines have the highest firepower to stacking limit concentration ..

I started thinking about this more - other than isolating him, is there anything else I can do to reduce the effectiveness of his attacks? I don't have much LBA (about a dozen Betties, which I am mostly using for search), so I can't really bomb him long-term. I could risk KB with DB attacks, are they very effective against tanks? It wouldn't be sustained. Shore bombardment?

If I had some AT or Tank units I could try to reinforce with those, but I don't think I have any in this scenario.

[Justus2]

28 JUNE

Quiet turn, especially after the last few. No naval engagements, only air battle was his Liberators hitting Truk. Al did try direct attack at both Tinian (first time) and Pagan. Once again, the attack at Pagan comes off at bad odds for him, but I suffer more casualties, and forts are reduced by one. Allied firepower on display, as Crackaces pointed out above. Even at Tinian, the attack results in horrible odds (1-8), and while he does suffer slightly higher casualties, it’s not nearly as bad as I would have expected. At least forts weren’t reduced, and they will go to level 4 in a couple more days.

This scenario has been a good learning experience for me, to recalibrate my expectations. [X(] I’ve spent so much time in 41-42, I have too many assumptions about how things work based on early-war units.

[Justus2]

Thought this would be a good time for an update on the sub war (or what’s left of it). I mentioned yesterday, I’ve lost 11 so far, and half of what I have left are pretty banged up. I’ve been able to send a couple to Truk to get buffed out, repairing non-major damage, but otherwise not much I can do about it except use them if they are half-way serviceable, or park them in port.

I only have 2 glen subs left (I-38 and I-41). I-38 is crippled, trying to limp back to Truk. I-41 has been patrolling off Pearl, and spotted some of the ships in harbor this turn (assuming those are some of the damaged ones being repaired). I’m bringing her back to Truk to repair as well, 10 of the float is major but I should be able to clear the rest up, I don’t want to leave her out there too long, PH ASW has been pretty tough.

[Justus2]

29 JUNE

This will be a quick update, late night (went to my brother’s, they have the fireworks on the 5th in their small town). Another quiet turn, but Al continued his deliberate attacks at both Tinian and Pagan. The Tinian attack reduced forts to 2. [:(] Tinian was only a couple days from hitting 4, now its at 19% to 3. 147 engineers, so hopefully it will rebuild quickly. Casualties were a lot higher this time, 89 squads destroyed for him, and lots of guns/vehicles disabled, I’m guessing he’s still pretty disrupted from the landings. Supply hit yellow (at 8K), so I'm going to have to risk some more fast transport TFs to get some in.

Saipan hit level 6 forts today, though!! [:)]

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Justus2
Saipan hit level 6 forts today, though!! [:)]

Great news! That's big. I'd stop building forts now, If I were you. You'll never make it to level 7 and the supply consumption trying to get there in vain isn't worth it.

Really enjoying the AAR, Justus2. You're doing a much better job than I did whittling away at his forces.

I'm really surprised to see him back off of your main carrier forces. He's got the big bat, I'm surprised that he hasn't used it to follow you to Iwo Jima, Palau and other bases and just smash the **** out of everything afloat. This attritional warfare against his amphibious forces isn't to his strength-but it is to yours. Go get 'im, tiger! [8D]

ETA: IRL, the A2A ratio was something >5:1 in favor of the Allies for the Marianas. In my game, I managed under a 1:2 IIRC (not quite 2 Japanese losses for every Allied plane downed). I was happy with that. You're achieving >1:1, which is fantastic! [&o]

Of course, you will lose a large number of those with a serious carrier naval air engagement and exchange, so bear that in mind as you look to this ratio for guidance.

[Justus2]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Justus2
Saipan hit level 6 forts today, though!! [:)]

Great news! That's big. I'd stop building forts now, If I were you. You'll never make it to level 7 and the supply consumption trying to get there in vain isn't worth it.

Really enjoying the AAR, Justus2. You're doing a much better job than I did whittling away at his forces.

I'm really surprised to see him back off of your main carrier forces. He's got the big bat, I'm surprised that he hasn't used it to follow you to Iwo Jima, Palau and other bases and just smash the **** out of everything afloat. This attritional warfare against his amphibious forces isn't to his strength-but it is to yours. Go get 'im, tiger! [8D]

ETA: IRL, the A2A ratio was something >5:1 in favor of the Allies for the Marianas. In my game, I managed under a 1:2 IIRC (not quite 2 Japanese losses for every Allied plane downed). I was happy with that. You're achieving >1:1, which is fantastic! [&o]

Of course, you will lose a large number of those with a serious carrier naval air engagement and exchange, so bear that in mind as you look to this ratio for guidance.

Thanks for the feedback, especially since your AAR was one of my sources of inspiration! I know from emails, and our previous Guadalcanal matches, that he is worried about my LBA hitting his carrier groups. I don't have that much LBA (and most of the Betties are tied up providing naval search), but I'm OK if that still serves as a deterrent! I know sooner or later the bill will come due, but I am trying to look at this like the Japanese did, if I don't stop him here there's not a lot to fall back on. So I'm willing to risk more if the payoff is worth it. I know my first carrier exchange in this situation is likely to be my last!

[Justus2]

30 JUNE

Another quiet turn. I-184 sinks the damaged APA Funston N of Truk. Al takes a break at Tinian, going with bombardment, but continues the DA at Pagan. That’s a Shock and then 4 straight deliberate attacks. I assume this would cause disruption and fatigue to build up, I see disruption as a negative modifier for the attacker this time. My fatigue is only at 4 on the SNLF, and no disruption, but about 40% of the squads are disabled. However, it still seems to be working, my AV is dropping and forts drop to 2.

I did some analysis of the combat totals going back to the 19th. As mentioned by other posters, this battle is making me realize the difference between firepower and AV, as the AV ods are consistently uphill but I continue to lose more casualties (and now forts). I only have 33 Engineers here, I set them to rebuilt forts (from level 4, they wouldn’t have hit 5 in the time remaining, but 2-3 is a quicker climb).

Supply is tight, but holding out, at 2500 (reqd reads as 1280). A FT TF (CL and 3DD) just arrived with another 450.

Tinian forts jumped from 19% to 39%, so they should get back to Level 4 in a few days, if I have some time to build. I turned off construction at Saipan, like Chickenboy suggested, same reason I’m not building at Guam.

[Justus2]

As we end June, we are at the half-way point of the scenario, which ends 6 AUG, so I thought I’d post the VP totals. I haven’t lost any of the ‘big 3’ islands, Tinian is under pressure but the Guam and Saipan haven’t really been touched. Not sure how much longer Pagan will hold out, but the longer the better.

On the map, you can see KB and the CVLs almost at Pelileu, where they will reload torp sorties. I’m debating where to send them next, I am thinking of using the CVLs on another raid, this time headed south toward Truk, then try to raid his AOs and other TFs near Eniwetok. However, that will be much closer and easer for his CVTFs to react to. Still, it could give me a window of distraction to push supplies into the key islands. KB will stay in safer waters and look for an opportunity to hit a smaller TF. I do have a raiding CA headed across the North Pacific, to see if I can stir up trouble. [;)] I’m also going to try and sneak a couple xAKs into Truk to pull some fuel out, Babel/Pel is down to about 20K.