IN-COW Leaked Report on WW II.

[rkr1958]

Turn 10. Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #5.

Weather. Roll = 6 (None,2).
1. Arctic - storms.
2. North temperate - rain.
3. Med - fine.
4. North monsoon - fine.
5. South monsoon - rain.
6. South temperate - fine.

Axis near-term (i.e., impulse/turn) objectives.
1. Germany - finish off Belgium.
2. Germany - have forces on the Western Front in position to exploit any weather change and / or errors by the allies.
3. Italy - reestablish supply to the North African army currently deep in Egypt.
4. Italy - get supply unit and Grazian in same hex.
5. Japan - shore up Umeza's exposed flank in central China.

No Alignments.
1. Germany - Hungary and Bulgaria still unaligned.
2. Japan - Siam still unaligned.

Italian RM naval move.
1. CP, 2 CA's and BB from Trieste to 0-box of Italian Coast. Supply, at least for the moment, is reestablished to the Italian forces in North Africa.

Naval combat.
1. RM elects not to attempt to initiate a naval combat in the Italian Coast. But the RN does and successfully surprise the Italian RM with 9 SP's. 4 SP's are used to force a surface combat, 2 SP's are used to move down by 1 column expected damage to the RN (from D, 3A to D, A) and the final 3 SP's are used to select the first target for the Italian A,A results. The RN uses their selection to abort the CP, which again puts the Italian forces in Egypt out of supply.
2. Both forces stay for round 2 but both searches fail.

[rkr1958]

Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #5 (con't).

Italian Army North Africa.
1. The Italians use their two land moves of their combine to get the supply unit into the same hex as Grazian.

[rkr1958]

Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #5 (con't).

Land Combat.
1. Brussels. The Germans get +19.25 against Brussels and decide not to include ground support. The RAF goes all in by flying two Hampden air units escorted by two fighter units (Hurricane and Swordfish). The Luftwaffe intercepts with 2 Bf-109 fighter units. The first round of the air-to-air sees 1 of the 2 German Bf-109 units aborted and the RAF Hurricane unit shot down. Both sides stay and round 2 sees the second Luftwaffe fighter unit forced to abort and 1 of the 2 Hampden bomber units cleared. With both Luftwaffe fighter units forced to aborted, the second Hampden bomber is automatically cleared. The two Hampden bomber units provide 3 points of ground support and change the attack odds from +19.25 to +14.4. This reduces the PWIN from 100% (certain win) to 95.2%. Also, the probability that Germany will lose their engineer, which is providing support, increases from 1.7% to 17%. Defensive ground support is rendered mute when Germany rolls high enough to make the attack for them lossless.

[rkr1958]

Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Allied #7.

French High Command. Paris, France.
Inside the French High command a debate is raging about whether or not to attack the German salient southwest of Brussels. If successful this would reduce the defensive front of the French forces and push German forces away from the French border. In order to help settle this debate the French High Command enlisted the help of their military analysts and a revolutionary technique available to such analysts called, "Wargaming". Little known to the French is that this is the same technique employed recently by the Italians and available to all belligerents. Interestingly enough, "Wargaming" was developed and patented by the famous, or maybe infamous, International Nonbelligerent College of War, or IN-COW for short. A technique that has been licensed by IN-COW to all major belligerents to include extensive training and support.

French Wargmaing Analysis of the German Salient.

1. This analysis assumed that the French will use all available aircraft and artillery for a pre-attack ground strike against the salient. The French have 1 artillery division and 2 aircraft units that can ground strike. They also have 1 fighter unit that can provide counter-interception support if necessary against two German fighter units that could respond.

2. For planning purposes the French analysts assumed that 1 of the 2 air units were cleared for the ground strike. The "expected" result was that 1 of the 3 ground units were disorganized. They assumed this one unit was a corps and resulting in a +2 modified to the land attack.

3. With +1 HQ support from Billote and +2 from the ground strikes, the estimated attack odds were +6.75. With the French having the option to select the combat table, which would be Blitz, this resulted in an estimated 70% chance of success; i.e., taking the Salient with expected losses of 1/2 unit for both sides.

4. Given the weather and the late impulse, the French High Command give the go ahead for this counterattack. French military analysts hold their breath in anticipation of how closely the actual offensive matches their "wargaming" analysis.

[rkr1958]

Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Allied #7 (con't).

Near-Term/Impulse Objectives.
1. France - destroy/occupy German salient.
2. CW - long and short term ASW patrols.*
3. CW - reinforce Egypt.
4. CW - more fighter units to the Med.
5. CW - break Italian supply through the East Med (i.e., sink their CP in the East Med).
6. CW - get Belgian Congo RP to factory, which will leave two idle RPs (both in Malaya).
7. CW - relive 2nd div in Bombay for deployment to the Med. Playing without unlimited breakdown makes infantry divisions almost "elite" and most certainly coveted.
8. USSR - continue building up the Nazi-Soviet pact garrison ratio.

* short-term ASW patrols include escorts in the 0-box and desirably patrols in the 4-box. long-term ASW patrols also include escorts in the 1-box that can/will move down to the 0-box during the return to base phase and ensure (0-box) escort at the start of the following turn.

Nazi-Soviet Pact.
1. Germany - No (58).
2. USSR - No (9).

Actions.
1. USSR (neutral) -combine.
2. China - land.
3. CW - naval.
4. France - land.
5. USA (neutral) - combine.

[rkr1958]

Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Allied #7 (con't).

The British Admiralty got their way in that the CW took a naval through, in part, to their sub threat pitch to PM Churchill. The following is an excerpt from their report on the German/Italian sub threat to British convoys.

The Axis Sub Threat.

Bases/units.
1. Germany, Kiel (4-2, 4-3, 4-2).
2. Italy, La Spezia (5-2, 5-3, 4-4, 4-2).

Susceptible Sea Areas.
1. North Sea, 1 CP (3 subs).
2. Faeores Gap, 4 CPs (4 subs).
3. Bay of Biscay, 16 CPs (4 subs).
4. Cape St. Vincent, 9 CPs (4 subs).
5. Cape Verde Basin, 6 CPs (2 subs).
6. Gulf of Guinea, 4 CPs (1 sub).
7. North Atlantic, 9 CPs (4 subs).
8. East Coast, 8 CPs (1 sub).
9. Caribbean, 4 CPs (1 sub).
10. Central Atlantic, 1 CP (2 subs).
11. Mouth of Amazons, 2 CPs (1 sub).
12. West Med, 5 CPs (4 subs).
13. East Med, 5 CPs (4 subs).

Note, the axis have a total of 7 sub flotillas, or units. The number in parenthesis beside each sea area is the maximum number of this total that can reach that sea area. Of course, the axis couldn't place the maximum all sea areas as this number would far exceed the actual number of sub units they have. However, ASW patrols must be placed in all 13 sea areas to guard against the "maximum" threat to each owing to the fact that the axis subs are still in port.

Notable Naval Moves.
1. USN - BB, CV and CA to 0-box of the East Coast. The USN, through still neutral, agrees to take care of ASW on the US East Coast resulting in one less sea are the the RN need to concern themselves with.
2. RN - TRS picks up Belgium fighter unit from the Belgium Congo.
3. RN - The Queens force and failed intercept attempt by the Italians in the East Med and move to the Mozambique Channel and pick up an RSA terr corps.
4. RN - CVL w/escorts to the 0-box of the Bay of Biscay (16 CPs, threaten by 4 sub units).
5. RN - CVL w/escorts to the 0-box Cape St. Vincent (9 CPs, threaten by 4 sub units).
6. RN - 3rd CVL that was left disorganized and is sorely needed for the North Atlantic (9 CPs, threaten by 4-subs). RN moves BB and CA to the 0-box of the North Atlantic.
7. RN - escorts moved to 0-boxes of other threaten sea areas and to higher boxes of most threaten sea areas.
8. RN - TRS + AU Mil (Perth) to Bay of Bengal.
9. RN - TRS + fighter (England) to West Med.

Naval Combat.
1. Italian Coast - RN has 3 CAs (4-box), sub (3-box) vs Italian RM BB, CA, FTR (0-box) and NAV (2-box). RN decides not to attempt to initiate, RM has not option to do so. So, no combat.
2. East Med - RN attempts but fails to initiate a naval combat.

Allied Convoys.
1. The RP in the Belgium Congo is, for now, flowing to a British factory.

[rkr1958]

Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. Axis #7 (con't).

France's counterattack on the German Salient.
1. German fighters reek havoc on the two French air units attempt to ground strike. The air-to-air is a disaster for the French. This leaves the only the French artillery unit to ground strike which misses all three ground units and an units. The assumed +2 modifier for ground strikes does NOT materialize.

2. The Luftwaffe flies three air units in defensive ground support. An element overlooked by the French military analysts who are now hiding under their desks. In response to the Luftwaffe ground support, French AA artillery opens up and reduces the ground support by 2 points (from 5 to 3).

3. The actual attack odds after all this come out to +4.647, instead of +6.750. This means that the actual chance of success is barley more that a coin flip versus the estimated 70%.

4. The attack fails but results in the loss of a German corps for the loss of a French mot division.

5. Unless the turn ends, the Germans will be able to reinforce and save their salient.

Ground Strikes (Other).
1. CW - 10% vs Graziani, 4-3 inf. Ground strike misses. Neither unit disorganized.

Notable Air Rebase.
1. Spitfire unit from TRS in West Med to Malta.

HQ Reorg.
1. France, Georges - arm, mot, inf.

End of Turn Check.
1. Roll 1 < 2, this turn ends.
2. The German Salient is still at risk assuming the allies can move first.

[Centuur]

Why this ground strike, when the Luftwaffe can intercept with a better FTR? You haven't got air superiority at all...

Why press on this attack, after the ground strike fails? That's folly...

Conclusion: General Gamelin is in charge. Not good at all. If the weather turns, the Germans can wreck havoc on the disorganised French units...

[TeaLeaf]

ORIGINAL: Centuur

Why this ground strike, when the Luftwaffe can intercept with a better FTR? You haven't got air superiority at all...

Why press on this attack, after the ground strike fails? That's folly...

Conclusion: General Gamelin is in charge. Not good at all. If the weather turns, the Germans can wreck havoc on the disorganised French units...

I see quite a few players nowadays not paying attention to the golden rule of land combat. Apparently it astonishes you and me both.
Probably the popularity of poker has created a lot of gamblers lately [:)].

I can understand Ground Striking from rough parity or even inferiority much better though. It may activate and disorganize enemy fighters, which may give you great freedom in later impulses. If they don't intercept... well, bombers go for it!

But the turn has ended, so the allies came out as victor in this little confrontation. So far [;)].

[rkr1958]

End of Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940.

Partisans.
1. India. Placed in the mountains on RP[95,110], which will force the CW to use 1 of 2 oil points "currently" being saved to England. This partisan represents a minor monkey-wrench thrown into CW production and convoy routes.
2. Communist China. Placed in the mountains [82, 146] and not in position to interfere with Japanese production.

Nazi-Soviet Pact Markers.
1. Germany - 2 offensive.
2. USSR - 1 defense.
3. Can Break Pact? Germany (No) - 62, USSR (No) - 8.5.

US Entry.
1. +1 JPN (4/1; 17/8) and Ge/It(5/1; 23/8).
2. US chooses gift of destroyers to CW, option 16. Tension roll = 3 <, so 1 chit is moved from the Ge/It entry to tension pool.
3. Ge/It(4/2; 22/10), JPN(4/1; 17/9).

Destroyed Pool.

[rkr1958]

End of Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940 (con't).

Use Oil.
1. USSR - 0, 5 total saved.
2. Germany - 2.35 required, 2.35 used, 3 consumed (see 3)* and 3 stockpiled (i.e., total saved left after use oil).
3. Italy - 0.45 required, 0.45 of 0.65 German oil point used, so Germany consumes 3* and 1 stockpiled.
4. Japan - 1.2 required, 1.2 used, 1 consumed and 3 stockpiled.
5. China - 0 and 1 stockpiled
6. France - 1.2 required, 1.2 used, 1 consumed and 2 stockpiled.
7. USA - 0.6 required, 0.4 used, 0 consumed and 7 stockpiled.

Production.
1. Germany - 17 BP's.
2. Italy - 5 BP's.
3. Japan - 13 BP's. 6 of 19 Japanese factories sit idle, representing a significant war production potential unrealized. The US embargo on raw materials (opt 13) and the freezing of Japanese assets (opt 23) is having an impact.
4. China - 5 BP's.
5. CW - 17 BP's.
6. France - 7 BP's.
7. USA - 11 BP's.
8. USSR - 14 BP's.

Builds.
1. Germany(17) - FTR(3), Pilot(2), Sub 1st(1), Mech(5), Arm Div(2), Mil(2).
2. Italy(5) - CP(1)x3, Gar(2).
3. Japan(13) - Terr(2)x2, Pilot(2), CVP(1), FTR(2), CA Repair(1)x2, CP(1), Sub 1st(1).
4. China(5) - Inf(3)x2, Cav(2).
5. CW(17)- Mil(2)x2, Gar(2), FTR(3), FTR(2), Pilot(2)x2, TRS 1st(2).
6. USA(11) - CVP(1), Pilot(2), BB 1st(2), TRS 1st(2), Amph 1st(3), BP Save.
7. USSR(14) - LND(2), Pilot(2), Gar(2)x2, Inf(3)x3.

Factory Destruction.
1. Germany - Blue factory, Leige, Belgium.

[rkr1958]

End of Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940 (con't).

The Western Front.

The German salient in Belgium still exist but has significantly been weakened. The allies get the initiative and move first there's a good chance that the French could finish the job, which would also result in the destruction of the valuable German air corps and artillery division. So the final judgement on the effectiveness of the French counterattack on the salient is still out.

[rkr1958]

End of Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. (con't).

Egypt.

RN RTB brings more sorely needed reinforcements into Egypt. In this case a garrison to Suez City.

The Italian situation in Egypt is also precarious due to their inability to keep keep Grazian and his army supplied.

[rkr1958]

End of Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. (con't).

The Nazi-Soviet Pact.

[rkr1958]

End of Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. (con't).

US Entry Options.

[rkr1958]

End of Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. (con't).

Southern China.

[rkr1958]

End of Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. (con't).

Northern China.

[rkr1958]

End of Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. (con't).

Korea.

[rkr1958]

End of Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. (con't).

Manchuria.

[rkr1958]

End of Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. (con't).

India. Burma.