OT: Corona virus

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins

Now we have two geographically separated cases in California from apparent community spread, a community spread case in an Oregon school, a community spread case in a Washington school. Based on the experience of other countries so far, who knows how big these outbreaks actually are? Not us, because we've only had the capacity and guidelines to test folks from China while it breaks out across the world.

"With an increase in unknown origin cases and a change in testing guidelines across the country, CDC officials said they were hoping to have every state and local health department testing for the virus by the end of next week."

Yeah, I'm sure the virus will be fine with that.

I guess we could do what China did and just throw our hands up and 'diagnose' 'confirmed' cases without the benefit of a test. We could keep up with the numbers that way by rewriting our case criteria and lumping everything in to 'confirmed' cases without the benefit of actual...you know...knowledge or verifiable truth.

[Erik Rutins]

I realize my comments were snarky, but I'm frustrated. I have dependents who are very vulnerable to this illness based on the information so far.

We want verifiable truth, but we let the virus get ahead of us because of our testing limitations, even though we had a head start.

[Zorch]

ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins

I realize my comments were snarky, but I'm frustrated. I have dependents who are very vulnerable to this illness based on the information so far.

We want verifiable truth, but we let the virus get ahead of us because of our testing limitations, even though we had a head start.

The bottom line is that people who don't travel, or mix with people who do travel, are at low risk for contracting the virus. That's my safety blanket.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins

I realize my comments were snarky, but I'm frustrated. I have dependents who are very vulnerable to this illness based on the information so far.

We want verifiable truth, but we let the virus get ahead of us because of our testing limitations, even though we had a head start.

We will have widespread testing primer kits tested and distributed by week's end. This for a novel virus that we had a ***** of a time getting out of a notoriously tight-fisted autocratic communist 'health' agency. We will likely have a fast-tracked vaccine in 3-4 months time as well, freakishly fast by any other historical standards.

I hear you in terms of the frustration re: your vulnerable dependents though and wish all of you the best.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Zorch
The bottom line is that people who don't travel, or mix with people who do travel, are at low risk for contracting the virus. That's my safety blanket.

Doesn't the fact that nobody-and I mean nobody-wants to go anywhere near you act as a protective mechanism too? [:'(]

[Zorch]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Zorch
The bottom line is that people who don't travel, or mix with people who do travel, are at low risk for contracting the virus. That's my safety blanket.

Doesn't the fact that nobody-and I mean nobody-wants to go anywhere near you act as a protective mechanism too? [:'(]

I go about cleverly disguised as a Texas veterinarian, and dispense medical advice in his name.

[rustysi]

It looks like the situation in the USA and the rest of North America is pretty much the same as it was yesterday,

Well, for the U.S., with 8400 people of 'interest' to test and only 200 test kits, who knows?

[Erik Rutins]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy
We will likely have a fast-tracked vaccine in 3-4 months time as well, freakishly fast by any other historical standards.

Explain this one to me - I've heard Dr. Fauci multiple times say 12-18 months until a vaccine. How do you get 3-4?

[Erik Rutins]

ORIGINAL: rustysi
Well, for the U.S., with 8400 people of 'interest' to test and only 200 test kits, who knows?

We're up to more than that now, but yeah that's where California was just a few days ago.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy
We will likely have a fast-tracked vaccine in 3-4 months time as well, freakishly fast by any other historical standards.

Explain this one to me - I've heard Dr. Fauci multiple times say 12-18 months until a vaccine. How do you get 3-4?

https://time.com/5790545/first-covid-19-vaccine/

Novel technology by this company and others that can significantly decrease the time to human trials and, hopefully, market. But, yeah, a 'traditional' vaccine takes something like a year for anything other than seasonal influenza.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: rustysi

It looks like the situation in the USA and the rest of North America is pretty much the same as it was yesterday,

Well, for the U.S., with 8400 people of 'interest' to test and only 200 test kits, who knows?

I think you might be confusing a use-and-discard 'test kit' (which nobody is using) with what the CDC has been hurriedly producing (Primer sets for RT-PCR). AFAIK, the bottleneck that is opening up is for primer sets for the COVID-19 virus. When used in a RT-PCR reaction, a primer set kit can do many, many, many samples.

[Erik Rutins]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

https://time.com/5790545/first-covid-19-vaccine/

Novel technology by this company and others that can significantly decrease the time to human trials and, hopefully, market. But, yeah, a 'traditional' vaccine takes something like a year for anything other than seasonal influenza.

Yeah, that's exactly the same one Fauci's been talking about. The President was saying in the Wednesday briefing that a vaccine was "close". Fauci then stepped up and said while they are breaking vaccine development time records, it will be 12-18 months before it completes the initial human safety triels, then the second phase of human effectiveness trials, then gets manufactures in large enough numbers to matter. 12-18 months. Until then, hopefully Remdesivir will show some effect in that clinical trial. News from China indicates perhaps Chlorquine Phosphate or an AIDS drug called Liponavir/Ritonavir may have some effect too.

Regards,

- Erik

[Erik Rutins]

I guess this is my main frustration in our response so far and it doesn't seem to come down to any limitations on data from China, but rather on our own bureaucracy and regulations and the idiocy that those often create, even when lives are at stake.

For comparison, one week ago the CDC was able to process 50-100 test per day and three or four states were able to test, no hospitals. At that point, largely due to the narrow testing criteria from the CDC (required travel to China) we had tested less than 500 cases. That's now gone up to about 500 per day at the CDC and hopefully all states can now test to some degree, but still no hospitals as far as I know. As far as I know, that's been partly held up by the (now fixed) problem with the emergency declaration stupidly requiring everyone to wait on the CDC, which was unable to get these kits working again quickly.

CDC was planning to start active surveillance back in early February. That was pushed back due to test issues, but restrictions weren't lifted on allowing others to work on their own test. As soon as these hurdles were cleared and limits lifted and testing definitions broadened, we started finding cases where folks were infected more than a week ago with no foreign links and people will unfortunately die because of these unnecessary delays.

Meanwhile, South Korea as an example had some testing with six hour turn-around available down to the hospital level as early as February 7th and has been running about 10,000 tests a day all through this last week. They didn't get anything more from China than we did to help get their testing online. My $.02, the horse has left the barn and hopefully there's still time to find it and put it back.

Regards,

- Erik

[witpqs]

My reading of the tea leaves, so to speak, is that testing will not stop worldwide spread of COVID-19, it will help with identifying those who catch it and are most vulnerable, thereby can benefit from most aggressive treatment.

Most of what I've heard about vaccines is a year is about the best case, usually a couple of years. Maybe some of the recent advances plus the priority of this situation will allow them to do it more quickly in this case. But, it's also my understanding that some viruses have simply never had a successful vaccine created against them.

[Erik Rutins]

Right, testing doesn't stop it getting in, but having a big testing capacity and broad guidelines allows you to catch an outbreak before it becomes so widespread that containment is no longer possible. That can buy a lot of time in a situation like this when there's much we still don't know about this virus.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins

Right, testing doesn't stop it getting in, but having a big testing capacity and broad guidelines allows you to catch an outbreak before it becomes so widespread that containment is no longer possible. That can buy a lot of time in a situation like this when there's much we still don't know about this virus.

I guess what I'm trying to say is, I don't think testing can do that in this case at this point in the process. I believe - think - and I am no expert, that things are well past when that was possible. I include in my thinking the notion that "if the kits were available X weeks sooner", because the current state of the epidemic/pandemic is a few weeks beyond what we see today. What we see today is really where things were a few weeks ago (due to incubation period, reporting lags, etc).

[MakeeLearn]

First coronavirus deaths reported in US, Thailand and Australia

https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coro ... index.html
video

"First US death reported: President Donald Trump spoke to reporters about the latest coronavirus developments, including the death of a Washington state patient."

[Canoerebel]

Reported cases in US up 9 from yesterday, with one death.

One news outlet reporting 50 sick! in a nursing facility (suggesting to any reader that all of them have the Coronavirus, but only those who read carefully find out none are confirmed yet, they're being tested).

Other outlets reporting panic will set in (Target and Wal-Mar shelves bare by April 1), which encourages people to fulfill that prophecy. Because of reports like this, panic buying/hoarding will more likely begin this week.

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Reported cases in US up 9 from yesterday, with one death.

One news outlet reporting 50 sick! in a nursing facility (suggesting to any reader that all of them have the Coronavirus, but only those who read carefully find out none are confirmed yet, they're being tested).

Other outlets reporting panic will set in (Target and Wal-Mar shelves bare by April 1), which encourages people to fulfill that prophecy. Because of reports like this, panic buying/hoarding will more likely begin this week.

SADDLE UP MEN!!!

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Reported cases in US up 9 from yesterday, with one death.

One news outlet reporting 50 sick! in a nursing facility (suggesting to any reader that all of them have the Coronavirus, but only those who read carefully find out none are confirmed yet, they're being tested).

Other outlets reporting panic will set in (Target and Wal-Mar shelves bare by April 1), which encourages people to fulfill that prophecy. Because of reports like this, panic buying/hoarding will more likely begin this week.

There are very sensationalist reports, and there are some very good, very objective and informational reports. Not sure what you're pointing out here other than some media are less responsible than others? [:)]

People don't need help from the media to panic and buy out stores. Every hurricane warning in the SE can confirm people panic/prepare for the worst. Is that such a bad thing though? Why not hoard a bit and make sure that if lockdowns occur you have what you need?

There is so much internal movement and so many without health insurance in the States I have a strong feeling this is going to get very bad very soon there. I'm worried for my parents who are both in high risk categories, my mom being a smoker and my dad a polio survivor experiencing some post-polio syndrome symptoms. I'll be speaking to them tonight to encourage them to reduce their outside activities until we see how this develops. The cases in WA are very close since they're both in Portland.

Here I'm in close proximity to hundreds of random strangers a day on the tube and more at work (in a school) so I'm not feeling so secure either. Hopefully if numbers increase schools will close for a time and limit the least hygienic of us from passing the germs around. And let me stay home. [;)]