The distortion of truth (and how this leads to games of lower quality)

Gary Grigsby's strategic level wargame covering the entire War in the Pacific from 1941 to 1945 or beyond.

Moderators: Joel Billings, wdolson, Don Bowen, mogami

User avatar
Tristanjohn
Posts: 3027
Joined: Wed May 01, 2002 4:50 am
Location: Daly City CA USA
Contact:

Post by Tristanjohn »

TIMJOT wrote:QUOTE=Tristanjohn]Not if, as I clearly stated, if they had delayed or commited less resources and effort in there capture. If you compare the Japanese planed schedule of conquest with the Allied plan schedule of reinforcement for ABDA, you will might understand my point.
What I think I understand is that you and the authors you quote who you say theorize this that and the other with regard to Malaya seem to have no grasp of real-world logistics. No matter what land combat forces were sent into that region in early 1942 they were all going to die, either outright or more slowly and more agonizingly still . . . on the vine. And any naval sortie designed to meet the Japanese in a straight fight on the briny would have ended in complete and catastrophic defeat for the Allies.

As it was it was rather nip and tuck through the spring of 1942, and while Coral Sea and Midway were the turning-point battles we remember in all truth what stopped Japan as much as anything else was the sorry combination of their grandiose scheme for greater-Asia conquest wedded to an industrial base that was dismally inadequate to see that pipedream practicably through.

Of course in the long term Japan was always dead as a doornail, but early on there was nothing in the world to stop them from occupying the SRA. They got there the firstest with the mostest and that took care of that. Keeping what it took was Japan's only problem in early 1942, and one at that which proved ultimately insoluable even for their Devine Emperor.
Regarding Frank Jack Fletcher: They should have named an oiler after him instead. -- Irrelevant
User avatar
mogami
Posts: 11053
Joined: Wed Aug 23, 2000 8:00 am
Location: You can't get here from there

Mac's combat record

Post by mogami »

MacArthur's combat record. Two wounds, one gassing, 13 decorations for gallantry under-fire, seven citations for extraordinary valor, 24 top decorations of foreign Governments. (And this was all just WWI) He also was at Vera Cruz and charged a hill with the Japanese at Mukden in 05. No matter what else he was or had done he was no coward and had seen the elephant.
Unless you've been there you have no right to apply any moniker. His men are allowed to, they were there and somebody had to be the goat. It was better for them to have Dugout Doug. He never blamed them.
The mistake was in thinking he could react fast enough to defeat the Japanese on the beaches. He had sufficent strength to defeat Japanese units. His men did so repeatly. Because he planned a forward defense his supply was scattered all over.
I still believe the intial deployment of force decides the outcome of battles. Had he prepared in advance to hold the line he ultimatly defended his troops could have inflicted terrible loss on the Japanese. PI could not be held no matter who had been it command. It could have been defended better. It could have been defended poorer. No matter who was in command then, today he would be a goat for it. It would be "Strikeout Ike, Or Bailout Bradley, Or Panic Patton" instead. Its the way troops are. Have always been.
The Flipinos never stopped respecting him and because of him many surrendered rather then escape (They kept their uniforms) The ones that could went to the hills and fought till he returned.

I don't like him either.
Image




I'm not retreating, I'm attacking in a different direction!
User avatar
Tristanjohn
Posts: 3027
Joined: Wed May 01, 2002 4:50 am
Location: Daly City CA USA
Contact:

Post by Tristanjohn »

Mogami wrote:MacArthur's combat record. Two wounds, one gassing, 13 decorations for gallantry under-fire, seven citations for extraordinary valor, 24 top decorations of foreign Governments. (And this was all just WWI) He also was at Vera Cruz and charged a hill with the Japanese at Mukden in 05. No matter what else he was or had done he was no coward and had seen the elephant.
Unless you've been there you have no right to apply any moniker. His men are allowed to, they were there and somebody had to be the goat. It was better for them to have Dugout Doug. He never blamed them.
The mistake was in thinking he could react fast enough to defeat the Japanese on the beaches. He had sufficent strength to defeat Japanese units. His men did so repeatly. Because he planned a forward defense his supply was scattered all over.
I still believe the intial deployment of force decides the outcome of battles. Had he prepared in advance to hold the line he ultimatly defended his troops could have inflicted terrible loss on the Japanese. PI could not be held no matter who had been it command. It could have been defended better. It could have been defended poorer. No matter who was in command then, today he would be a goat for it. It would be "Strikeout Ike, Or Bailout Bradley, Or Panic Patton" instead. Its the way troops are. Have always been.
The Flipinos never stopped respecting him and because of him many surrendered rather then escape (They kept their uniforms) The ones that could went to the hills and fought till he returned.

I don't like him either.
That isn't a monker I ascribed to him but one history has decided to tag him with.

Yes, MacArthur had a long and distinguished career and I always give respect to someone who serves his country in uniform, so I'll just leave that there.

I think the man had above all other things an overriding sense of loyalty to the people of the Philippines, a country he is said to have grown to love dearly over the years. And without a doubt had it not been for his one-minded determination to pursue his New Guinea-Mindanao axis of advance there is no hope the the PI would have been invaded at all for the JCS wanted none of it. Lord only knows how many innocent lives would have then been further lost in that event.

On balance, though, MacArthur wasn't all that hot as the supreme commander in the SWPAC and probably we could have found someone better suited for the position. But dem's politics.
Regarding Frank Jack Fletcher: They should have named an oiler after him instead. -- Irrelevant
User avatar
mogami
Posts: 11053
Joined: Wed Aug 23, 2000 8:00 am
Location: You can't get here from there

PI defense.

Post by mogami »

Mike Scholl wrote:I'm curious, Mogami. Just what units and in what strengths does the game show
the US/Phillippines forces at the beginning of the war? While the Garrison did
have the equivalent of perhaps 1 and 2/3rd's divisions of "Regulars", the rest
of the units were the newly raised, under-trained, under-equipped, and under-
strength "Phillippines Militia Army". A force with limited defensive, and virtually
no offensive capability. How has 2by3 chosen to show this force in the game.

While I'm generally on record as worrying that the Allies get "short-changed" in
the early war in most games, this sounds like the reverse may be the case.
The results you are describing (Whole Japanese Divisions being wiped out) seem
to fall more in the heading of "MacArthur's wet dreams" than anything historically
possible. Can you provide further detail?
Hi, The Allies in PI can not stop the 14th Army if it is used correctly. They can extract a price while their supply lasts. The examples of them destroying Japanese divisions are when the Japanese player diverts 14th Army units to other operations. (Thinking PI is a 'cakewalk') There are 2 divisions worth of good troops Then you can add a few more of poorer quality but you see the problem caused for a Japanese unit that blunders into this size force? The Japanese can split divisions. Northern PI is undefended by any quality combat unit. so the 48th Division alone split into Rgt can take all 3 northern bases. But then if the ALlied player moves up there he can wipe out this division. (The 21st begins in Hanoi. The 4th in Amami and the remaing divison in the Home Islands. The 65th Bde is also at Pescadore but it is not a high quality unit. (It gets smoked as well if caught alone) The Japanese need to be very careful here. They need 2 divisions together at the point of contact. They have 4 Divisions and 1 Bde assigned to capture PI. This is enough given time. (The allies run out of supply) But if they decide to send 21st Army to capture the back door to China and the coast. And one of the other divisions to take Port Moresby and be brilliant. They end up losing 2 divisons and 1 Bde. And PI while hungry remains untaken. (a very extreme case and I predict before the game has been released 6 months some Japanese player will be posting the game is screwy because MacArthur just wiped out 50k Japanese.




"That isn't a monker I ascribed to him but one history has decided to tag him with.

I think "Dugout Doug" was the perfect moniker for that guy. "
Image




I'm not retreating, I'm attacking in a different direction!
Mike Scholl
Posts: 6187
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 1:17 am
Location: Kansas City, MO

PLEASE ANSWER THE QUESTION!!!!!

Post by Mike Scholl »

Mogami wrote:Hi, The Allies in PI can not stop the 14th Army if it is used correctly. They can extract a price while their supply lasts. The examples of them destroying Japanese divisions are when the Japanese player diverts 14th Army units to other operations. (Thinking PI is a 'cakewalk') There are 2 divisions worth of good troops Then you can add a few more of poorer quality but you see the problem caused for a Japanese unit that blunders into this size force? The Japanese can split divisions. Northern PI is undefended by any quality combat unit. so the 48th Division alone split into Rgt can take all 3 northern bases. But then if the ALlied player moves up there he can wipe out this division. (The 21st begins in Hanoi. The 4th in Amami and the remaing divison in the Home Islands. The 65th Bde is also at Pescadore but it is not a high quality unit. (It gets smoked as well if caught alone) The Japanese need to be very careful here. They need 2 divisions together at the point of contact. They have 4 Divisions and 1 Bde assigned to capture PI. This is enough given time. (The allies run out of supply) But if they decide to send 21st Army to capture the back door to China and the coast. And one of the other divisions to take Port Moresby and be brilliant. They end up losing 2 divisons and 1 Bde. And PI while hungry remains untaken. (a very extreme case and I predict before the game has been released 6 months some Japanese player will be posting the game is screwy because MacArthur just wiped out 50k Japanese.
MOGAMI You seem a fine fellow, and certainly the most willing to share your
knowledge of the test games. But you have a really annoying habit of ignoring
direct questions, or answering them with broad generalities.

HOW HAS 2BY3 CHOSEN TO REPRESENT THE ALLIED UNITS IN THE PHILLIPPINES?
That's as plain as I can make it. How strong are the various regiments of the
Regulars..., what is their equipment like? How strong are the units of the
Phillippine Militia? How many men, guns, etc. What's their morale? I'd love
to have some simple, straightforward detail here.
User avatar
pasternakski
Posts: 5567
Joined: Sat Jun 29, 2002 7:42 pm

Post by pasternakski »

I am not about to get embroiled in an argument over Douglas MacArthur, and I am certainly not a MacArthur apologist. I merely point to the rest of the history that you apparently have not read that paints him in a rather more favorable light.

He led and fought bravely throughout his career, despite what many characterize as "mistakes." In 1942, Roosevelt recognized in him the strong, charismatic figure that Americans needed to see and follow in the struggle against Japan and Germany, someone who could create victory despite the harrowing, disastrous start.

You with 60 years of hindsight and historical revisionism don't seem to know what the country thought and felt after Pearl Harbor. A grinding depression had still not really released its grip on America. Communist Russia, Fascist Germany and Japan, and the recently triumphant Franco set the tone. Cynicism had set in, and doubt was the order of the day. The gangsterism of Prohibition was still fresh in everyone's memory. World War One had been an afterthought involvement without particular glory or grandeur. The emergence of America on the world stage at the time of the Spanish-American war was a distant glimmer in the past.

Americans were afraid and confused. They were determined, but needed leaders who would not flinch in the face of the challenges ahead. MacArthur filled this need. He seized command, set his jaw, and led his forces to victory.

What more would you have wanted from him had you lived during those times?
Put my faith in the people
And the people let me down.
So, I turned the other way,
And I carry on anyhow.
User avatar
mogami
Posts: 11053
Joined: Wed Aug 23, 2000 8:00 am
Location: You can't get here from there

Myths and Legends

Post by mogami »

A man starts out in the military in peacetime play acting. Training is make believe because it lacks the confusion and terror of actual combat. The longer the period a nation spends in play acting the further from the reality of combat it moves.
It is even hard for soldiers who have been in combat to reenter it at a new level because they have been molded by their old memories.

I'm sure on December 8, 1941, General MacArthur discovered he would rather then be a Brigade or Division commander then the Supreme War Lord of the Philippines. A Brigade or Division Commander gets orders and tries to carry them out. Easy stuff compared to trying to enact a plan conceived in peacetime for an event viewed as a distant possibility.

The realities of trying to make the required movements to places being occupied by an enemy force who for whatever reason now held air superiority were demonstrated many times during the course of the world conflict. Trying to make such movement with half trained formations compound the problem. To be sure these realities should have been foreseen by the man that made the plan in advance. However it is rare to find a military leader in peacetime charged with planning who presents a worse case scenario for approval. And a military leader could retire the day he presented such a plan defeatist in nature to a civilian democratic government.

The entire truth of the matter is the Allies had underestimated Japan. True everyone knew the USA would eventually win any war. And because of this the general consensus was Japan knew this as well and would knuckle under to pressure.

It's the only logical way for me to put the events into perspective. It's hard for me to believe rational people would deliberately goad another nation into war if they actually thought their actions were so provocative as to be intolerable to endure.

So while you might be preparing for war your unprepared to fight it. I don't mean materially I mean emotionally. Material to a General is not a reason for defeat. Material limits operations but a good leader can always plan an operation to achieve the goal using just the material at hand. Lack of material being used as an excuse is a sign of a poor leader. The really great leaders in history have always been able to have a surplus of material known as a reserve that they introduce at a decisive moment to achieve their aims. I'll admit their being limits to what any particular force can achieve against larger more endowed forces but no real commander would admit to such a deficiency before the fight commenced. (Trusting to the God of battles and all that) and once again only a fool would admit these failings to the government that placed him in command and provided the material such as it was.

By 1941 MacArthur had lived the fantasy life of play acting soldier for 23 years. He had held senior posts for longer then anyone else and he could hardly blame anyone for the state of the American and Philippine Armies. As a result I understand the shock he must have experienced when he realized he now had to provide history with the proof of 23 years of play acting. Like an Actor finally given the big part and thrust on stage only to forget his lines. He recovered. And for nearly 62 years people have blamed his slow reaction for the fall of the Philippines. We know this is not true. Its not even close to being true. It's more of a myth then the Zero and yet here it is again.
There was not a man on the planet that could have held the Philippines in 1941 with the force provided. There are many who could have done better and a host who would have been signing the instrument of surrender a few days after the first landing "to prevent needless bloodshed."
He suffered a morale loss. And then recovered. MacArthur took the blame. The blame rests with the entire United States of America peacetime apparatus that always allowed American Military power to decline between wars and the diplomatic measures and stances taken against Japan without understanding what Japans reaction would be. Japanese were viewed as funny little monkey people with buck teeth and bad eyes. They had a German Army and a British Navy only they were toy soldier replicas not the real thing. They had no airforce and certainly no naval air arm.
Hell they couldn't beat the Russians or the Chinese they certainly would never try to take on the US of A. They had conceded to Teddy's demands after the 05 war. Given in again after W.W.I and were only trying to save face over China. They would have to come around and get out of the Axis Alliance. (Bad timing the Germans appearing to be beating the Soviets in 41)

I'm surprised Mac didn't blow his brains out at the start.
Image




I'm not retreating, I'm attacking in a different direction!
User avatar
mogami
Posts: 11053
Joined: Wed Aug 23, 2000 8:00 am
Location: You can't get here from there

Yike Mike

Post by mogami »

Mike Scholl wrote:MOGAMI You seem a fine fellow, and certainly the most willing to share your
knowledge of the test games. But you have a really annoying habit of ignoring
direct questions, or answering them with broad generalities.

HOW HAS 2BY3 CHOSEN TO REPRESENT THE ALLIED UNITS IN THE PHILLIPPINES?
That's as plain as I can make it. How strong are the various regiments of the
Regulars..., what is their equipment like? How strong are the units of the
Phillippine Militia? How many men, guns, etc. What's their morale? I'd love
to have some simple, straightforward detail here.
Hi, OK Mike Hang on I'll post the OOB here.

Corrigidor Fort 55 exp 55 mor
54x155mm CD gun
36x75mm gun
81xsupport

4th USMC Rgt 80 exp 80 mor
(16)83xUSMC Rifle Sqd
(6)34xUSMC Eng Sqd
(3)15x81mm Mortar
(3)15x37mm AT gun
(2)10x75mm Pack Howitzer
(1)8xEngineer
(29)147xsupport

194th USA Tank Bn 55 exp 60 mor (192nd Tank Bn same)AV=39
(24)30xM3 Stuart Light Tanks
(5)7xM3Halftrack
(26)33xMotorized support


31st USA RCT 70 exp 70 mor AV=96
(30)91xUSA Rifle Sqd
(2)7xUSA Eng Sqd
(4)14x81mm Mortar
(1)3x4.2 Mortar
(4)14x37mm AT gun
(6)18x75mm How
(1)5xeng
(45)135xsupport

PA division ratings by assault value (4th USMC Rgt AV=114)(exp/mor between 30 -45)
11thx95 21stx115, 31stx118 41stx95 51stx97 61stx55 71stx55 81stx54 91stx58
101stx45

45th RCT (PS) exp 60 mor 60 AV=51
57th RCT (PS) exp 55 mor 60 AV=45
26th Cav Rgt (PS) exp 60 mor 60 AV=32


14th Army
48th Div Exp 90 Mor 90
65th Bde Exp 50 Mor 55
16th Div Exp 70 Mor 75 AV=465
21st Div Exp 60 Mor 60 AV=486
4th Div Exp 60 Mor 55 AV=473

Entire PI defense force around 1200 AV when it's all together and supplied so you can see it would be a mistake for less then 2 IJA divisions to move into that hex. And the allies can still leave forces to prepare other hexes. There are 2-3 Field Arty units as well. (14th Army around 2500 AV ) To capture a base you need 2-1 (and 0 fort)
Image




I'm not retreating, I'm attacking in a different direction!
TIMJOT
Posts: 1705
Joined: Mon Apr 30, 2001 8:00 am

Post by TIMJOT »

Mogami wrote:Hi, OK Mike Hang on I'll post the OOB here.

Corrigidor Fort 55 exp 55 mor
54x155mm CD gun
36x75mm gun
81xsupport

4th USMC Rgt 80 exp 80 mor
(16)83xUSMC Rifle Sqd
(6)34xUSMC Eng Sqd
(3)15x81mm Mortar
(3)15x37mm AT gun
(2)10x75mm Pack Howitzer
(1)8xEngineer
(29)147xsupport

194th USA Tank Bn 55 exp 60 mor (192nd Tank Bn same)AV=39
(24)30xM3 Stuart Light Tanks
(5)7xM3Halftrack
(26)33xMotorized support


31st USA RCT 70 exp 70 mor AV=96
(30)91xUSA Rifle Sqd
(2)7xUSA Eng Sqd
(4)14x81mm Mortar
(1)3x4.2 Mortar
(4)14x37mm AT gun
(6)18x75mm How
(1)5xeng
(45)135xsupport

PA division ratings by assault value (4th USMC Rgt AV=114)(exp/mor between 30 -45)
11thx95 21stx115, 31stx118 41stx95 51stx97 61stx55 71stx55 81stx54 91stx58
101stx45

45th RCT (PS) exp 60 mor 60 AV=51
57th RCT (PS) exp 55 mor 60 AV=45
26th Cav Rgt (PS) exp 60 mor 60 AV=32


14th Army
48th Div Exp 90 Mor 90
65th Bde Exp 50 Mor 55
16th Div Exp 70 Mor 75 AV=465
21st Div Exp 60 Mor 60 AV=486
4th Div Exp 60 Mor 55 AV=473

Entire PI defense force around 1200 AV when it's all together and supplied so you can see it would be a mistake for less then 2 IJA divisions to move into that hex. And the allies can still leave forces to prepare other hexes. There are 2-3 Field Arty units as well. (14th Army around 2500 AV ) To capture a base
you need 2-1 (and 0 fort)


OK Mogami, If I may jump in here. First I will preface my remarks with the disclaimer that I realize its "alpha"..... BUT for the sake of historical accuracey here are some OOB corrections.

1. First and most obvious the Corregedore fort is waaaaaf off. Not even close really if you assume that it must include Forts Frank, Huges, Drum. Where are the 14", 12", 10", 8" guns???. Also the fortress was mostly garrisoned by "ELITE" Philipino Scouts. They practically slept with their guns and their moral and expirence should much higher.

2. The 192 & 194 Tank Bns each had 54 M-3 Stuarts and 25 M3 Halftracks w/ 75mm SP mounts.

3. As mentioned above the PS units were the BEST all around units in the PI (4th USMC Rgt exempted) Both their morale and experience should be much higher, better than the US 31st Regt.

4. Several USAFFE Arty Bns seem to be missing ( 105mm & 155mm)

Looking at the USAFFE oob as it know stands in this "Alpha" no wonder Luzon seems to fall before the 1st of the year in all the AARs I have seen to date.


On the positive side at a glance the IJA oob looks remarkably accurate.

Regards
mdiehl
Posts: 3969
Joined: Sat Oct 21, 2000 8:00 am

Post by mdiehl »

You're correct, Timjot, that PI OOB seems to be missing most of the US heavy weapons elements. Especially the big guns at Drum etc.
Show me a fellow who rejects statistical analysis a priori and I'll show you a fellow who has no knowledge of statistics.

Didn't we have this conversation already?
User avatar
Tristanjohn
Posts: 3027
Joined: Wed May 01, 2002 4:50 am
Location: Daly City CA USA
Contact:

Post by Tristanjohn »

pasternakski wrote:I am not about to get embroiled in an argument over Douglas MacArthur, and I am certainly not a MacArthur apologist. I merely point to the rest of the history that you apparently have not read that paints him in a rather more favorable light.

He led and fought bravely throughout his career, despite what many characterize as "mistakes." In 1942, Roosevelt recognized in him the strong, charismatic figure that Americans needed to see and follow in the struggle against Japan and Germany, someone who could create victory despite the harrowing, disastrous start.

You with 60 years of hindsight and historical revisionism don't seem to know what the country thought and felt after Pearl Harbor. A grinding depression had still not really released its grip on America. Communist Russia, Fascist Germany and Japan, and the recently triumphant Franco set the tone. Cynicism had set in, and doubt was the order of the day. The gangsterism of Prohibition was still fresh in everyone's memory. World War One had been an afterthought involvement without particular glory or grandeur. The emergence of America on the world stage at the time of the Spanish-American war was a distant glimmer in the past.

Americans were afraid and confused. They were determined, but needed leaders who would not flinch in the face of the challenges ahead. MacArthur filled this need. He seized command, set his jaw, and led his forces to victory.

What more would you have wanted from him had you lived during those times?
In my reply to Mogami I basically acknowledged this. But his appointment was much as anything a political sop as well as a case of the Army just doing the best it could with what it had on the spot--or rather soon would have after MacArthur had been called back to the colors, as he was technically not a member of the U.S.A. at the outbreak of war.

As for what "the public wanted," the public often gets what it wants, but that's hardly a good argument for the public necessarily getting what it most needs.

And please point out specifically where and how I have "revised" history, here or anywhere else.
Regarding Frank Jack Fletcher: They should have named an oiler after him instead. -- Irrelevant
User avatar
Tristanjohn
Posts: 3027
Joined: Wed May 01, 2002 4:50 am
Location: Daly City CA USA
Contact:

Post by Tristanjohn »

Mogami wrote:A man starts out in the military in peacetime play acting. Training is make believe because it lacks the confusion and terror of actual combat. The longer the period a nation spends in play acting the further from the reality of combat it moves.
It is even hard for soldiers who have been in combat to reenter it at a new level because they have been molded by their old memories.

I'm sure on December 8, 1941, General MacArthur discovered he would rather then be a Brigade or Division commander then the Supreme War Lord of the Philippines. A Brigade or Division Commander gets orders and tries to carry them out. Easy stuff compared to trying to enact a plan conceived in peacetime for an event viewed as a distant possibility.

The realities of trying to make the required movements to places being occupied by an enemy force who for whatever reason now held air superiority were demonstrated many times during the course of the world conflict. Trying to make such movement with half trained formations compound the problem. To be sure these realities should have been foreseen by the man that made the plan in advance. However it is rare to find a military leader in peacetime charged with planning who presents a worse case scenario for approval. And a military leader could retire the day he presented such a plan defeatist in nature to a civilian democratic government.

The entire truth of the matter is the Allies had underestimated Japan. True everyone knew the USA would eventually win any war. And because of this the general consensus was Japan knew this as well and would knuckle under to pressure.

It's the only logical way for me to put the events into perspective. It's hard for me to believe rational people would deliberately goad another nation into war if they actually thought their actions were so provocative as to be intolerable to endure.

So while you might be preparing for war your unprepared to fight it. I don't mean materially I mean emotionally. Material to a General is not a reason for defeat. Material limits operations but a good leader can always plan an operation to achieve the goal using just the material at hand. Lack of material being used as an excuse is a sign of a poor leader. The really great leaders in history have always been able to have a surplus of material known as a reserve that they introduce at a decisive moment to achieve their aims. I'll admit their being limits to what any particular force can achieve against larger more endowed forces but no real commander would admit to such a deficiency before the fight commenced. (Trusting to the God of battles and all that) and once again only a fool would admit these failings to the government that placed him in command and provided the material such as it was.

By 1941 MacArthur had lived the fantasy life of play acting soldier for 23 years. He had held senior posts for longer then anyone else and he could hardly blame anyone for the state of the American and Philippine Armies. As a result I understand the shock he must have experienced when he realized he now had to provide history with the proof of 23 years of play acting. Like an Actor finally given the big part and thrust on stage only to forget his lines. He recovered. And for nearly 62 years people have blamed his slow reaction for the fall of the Philippines. We know this is not true. Its not even close to being true. It's more of a myth then the Zero and yet here it is again.
There was not a man on the planet that could have held the Philippines in 1941 with the force provided. There are many who could have done better and a host who would have been signing the instrument of surrender a few days after the first landing "to prevent needless bloodshed."
He suffered a morale loss. And then recovered. MacArthur took the blame. The blame rests with the entire United States of America peacetime apparatus that always allowed American Military power to decline between wars and the diplomatic measures and stances taken against Japan without understanding what Japans reaction would be. Japanese were viewed as funny little monkey people with buck teeth and bad eyes. They had a German Army and a British Navy only they were toy soldier replicas not the real thing. They had no airforce and certainly no naval air arm.
Hell they couldn't beat the Russians or the Chinese they certainly would never try to take on the US of A. They had conceded to Teddy's demands after the 05 war. Given in again after W.W.I and were only trying to save face over China. They would have to come around and get out of the Axis Alliance. (Bad timing the Germans appearing to be beating the Soviets in 41)

I'm surprised Mac didn't blow his brains out at the start.

There's truth in that. Though besides the lack of sufficient military forces actually present in the Philippines you ought to note also that no possible means was available, nor would such means soon be available, or even available at some date in the foreseeable future to keep what force did exist to the Allies in the Philippines supplied. So yes, any military man would have ultimately failed in MacArthur's shoes.

Which more or less brings us back to the issue of the SRA, which was your basic "done deal."
Regarding Frank Jack Fletcher: They should have named an oiler after him instead. -- Irrelevant
User avatar
Hornblower
Posts: 1361
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 1:02 am
Location: New York'er relocated to Chicago

Post by Hornblower »

I think its safe to say, that if the allied player repeats the same errors that the allied leaders did in 41, and allows the same conditions to exist, then the likelyhood of the japanese repeating there historic performance is increased if not assured. However, we all have the benifit of history here and can learn from it. That being said, I feel that a good allied player stands a reasonable chance of holding Java. Mac, like him or not, was put in a bad spot. I'm interested to see if Raver in his AAR with Lusken can hold the line.
Peter Weir
Posts: 44
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2003 3:38 am
Location: Midwest

Post by Peter Weir »

Tristanjohn wrote:Well, as you've said you're reading (have almost finished?) Volume V of Morison how about if we turn that around and have you tell me what was and what was not of historical nature with regard to naval surface actions around Guadacanal as these happened in the Scenario #14 test?

Think of it as a kind of homework, Peter. :)

Really. You've the account before you and maps and track charts and whatnot to work with. This should all be apparent.

Homework? Ok, I take that challenge TJ but I missed this last night so it'll have to wiat til later today or tonight. Get back at you then!
User avatar
Mr.Frag
Posts: 11195
Joined: Wed Dec 18, 2002 5:00 pm
Location: Purgatory

Post by Mr.Frag »

Really. You've the account before you and maps and track charts and whatnot to work with. This should all be apparent.
I take it this is your usual tactic to not answer a direct question again TJ, trying to drag someone else into the discussion?

let me refresh your memory again:
Apart from making the point that you hate UV over and over again, would you care to EVER get to the point and clearly identify a single flaw that you are unhappy with that we could add to the suggestions/improvement lists instead of your whining about nothing.
TIMJOT
Posts: 1705
Joined: Mon Apr 30, 2001 8:00 am

Post by TIMJOT »

Tristanjohn wrote:What I think I understand is that you and the authors you quote who you say theorize this that and the other with regard to Malaya seem to have no grasp of real-world logistics. No matter what land combat forces were sent into that region in early 1942 they were all going to die, either outright or more slowly and more agonizingly still . . . on the vine. And any naval sortie designed to meet the Japanese in a straight fight on the briny would have ended in complete and catastrophic defeat for the Allies.

Your assumption is incorrect. I am not quoteing any author's precieved fantasy. The FACT is the Allied high command had made the strategic decision that the "Malaya Barrier" was to be held. Australia and India would be defended along this line. The defence of the Barrier was made the priorty, shipping and forces were diverted from the USSR, UK, and Middle-east to this end. The brits even allocated the two largest troop transports in the world (Queen Mary & Queen Elizabeth) for this task.

The plans/logisitics for this reinforcements were drawn up the the Allied high command by men who most definitely had a sober and "Real World Grasp" of logistics. A certain Gen. Eisenhower being just one who contributed significantly to the plan.

All the reinforcements I have sited were either in route (air/sea) or already partially deployed along the "Barrier" when it collapsed due mainly by the totally unexpected debahicle in Malaya. All these forces were conseqently redirected to Australia, Burma, India arriving between March - April 42.

Given time the situation was not hopeless. The only significant advantage the Japanese would maintain would be naval assets, but the "Malaya Barrier" is not just a name. The Makassar, Sunda, Banka, and Flores Straits could not be forced if the projected airpower was implaced.

If you are interested, here is a reading list for your edification.

1) "US Army in WWII, War in the Pacific"
(Strategy&Command the First Two Years)[Morton]

2) "US Army Campaigns in WWII"
( The East Indies ) [Anderson]

3) "The USAAF in WWII" Volume 1
(Plans & Early Operations) [Craven & Cate]

4) "Empires in the Balance" [Wilmott]

5) "Barrier and the Javelin" [Wilmott]

6) "They Fought With What They Had" [Edmunds]

7) "Japan's War" [Hoyt]

8) "But Not in Shame" [Toland]
TIMJOT
Posts: 1705
Joined: Mon Apr 30, 2001 8:00 am

Post by TIMJOT »

Tristanjohn wrote:In my reply to Mogami I basically acknowledged this. But his appointment was much as anything a political sop as well as a case of the Army just doing the best it could with what it had on the spot--or rather soon would have after MacArthur had been called back to the colors, as he was technically not a member of the U.S.A. at the outbreak of war.
Incorrect again. MacArthur was recalled to the US Army and placed in command of USAFFE in July 1941.
TIMJOT
Posts: 1705
Joined: Mon Apr 30, 2001 8:00 am

Post by TIMJOT »

Tristanjohn wrote:There's truth in that. Though besides the lack of sufficient military forces actually present in the Philippines you ought to note also that no possible means was available, nor would such means soon be available, or even available at some date in the foreseeable future to keep what force did exist to the Allies in the Philippines supplied. So yes, any military man would have ultimately failed in MacArthur's shoes.

Which more or less brings us back to the issue of the SRA, which was your basic "done deal."

This is getting tiresome.

Yes, on Dec 8th 1941 any and every man would have ultimately failed in the Philipines. As for the rest....

The Facts:

1,000,000 ship tons supplies and equipment had been allocated and in the process of delivery for the defence of the Philipines.

$10,000,000 for the construction of airfields in the PI had been allocated and and construction was well underway when war broke out.

$ 390,000 and the troops and equipment for an advance early warning system covering all the PI had been allocated and in the process of deployment when war broke out.

$269,000,000 for the equiping and training of the Philipine army had been granted and enough material was in route to completely outfit all 10 Philipine army divisions by April 42

A delivery shedule of Bombers to the PI had been worked out with the projected number of 272 B-17s by March 42. As well as 400+ P-40s by that same date.

In short, Yes if war had been delayed a few months there was sufficient means and forces availible in the "forseeable" future to make a difference in the defence of the Philipines.

If you want to discuss this seriously, I suggest you might want to go back and do some studying. As it is apparent that on this particular subject matter at least you are un-informed.
User avatar
Tristanjohn
Posts: 3027
Joined: Wed May 01, 2002 4:50 am
Location: Daly City CA USA
Contact:

Post by Tristanjohn »

TIMJOT wrote:Your assumption is incorrect. I am not quoteing any author's precieved fantasy. The FACT is the Allied high command had made the strategic decision that the "Malaya Barrier" was to be held. Australia and India would be defended along this line. The defence of the Barrier was made the priorty, shipping and forces were diverted from the USSR, UK, and Middle-east to this end. The brits even allocated the two largest troop transports in the world (Queen Mary & Queen Elizabeth) for this task.

The plans/logisitics for this reinforcements were drawn up the the Allied high command by men who most definitely had a sober and "Real World Grasp" of logistics. A certain Gen. Eisenhower being just one who contributed significantly to the plan.

All the reinforcements I have sited were either in route (air/sea) or already partially deployed along the "Barrier" when it collapsed due mainly by the totally unexpected debahicle in Malaya. All these forces were conseqently redirected to Australia, Burma, India arriving between March - April 42.

Given time the situation was not hopeless. The only significant advantage the Japanese would maintain would be naval assets, but the "Malaya Barrier" is not just a name. The Makassar, Sunda, Banka, and Flores Straits could not be forced if the projected airpower was implaced.

If you are interested, here is a reading list for your edification.

1) "US Army in WWII, War in the Pacific"

(Strategy&Command the First Two Years)[Morton]

2) "US Army Campaigns in WWII"

( The East Indies ) [Anderson]

3) "The USAAF in WWII" Volume 1

(Plans & Early Operations) [Craven & Cate]

4) "Empires in the Balance" [Wilmott]

5) "Barrier and the Javelin" [Wilmott]

6) "They Fought With What They Had" [Edmunds]

7) "Japan's War" [Hoyt]

8) "But Not in Shame" [Toland]
This is just too silly! Image

This is my best response, and it's meant to serve you down the road.

As it turns out a Prussian General Staff officer named von Paulus drew up a somewhat similar "appreciation" for the German Army prior to its invasion of the Soviet Union in 1941. This cockamamie plan called for Germany to simply "sweep" the entirety of so-called European Russian clean of Soviet forces right up to the foothills of the Ural Mountains by the end of the 1941 campaigning season, after which in this officer's singular "appreciation" he managed to "envision" the likelihood that German "mobile police units" would suffice to keep an eye on whatever remained of the Soviet forces (presumably huddling in abject fear and defeat) to the east of those very same Urals while Germany nonchalantly commenced the day-to-day business of transforming the steppes of the Ukraine into a convenient breadbasket for the Third Reich. It was then further "appreciated" by this deep thinker called Paulus that in 1942 (if not as early as 1941!) the oil of the Caucasus region would then also duly fall under German Army control . . . and so forth.

The world has always abounded with ordinary men who were not able to do a competent job during their time and place at work, whatever that work happened to be, and the results from these misdirected labors have always been unhappy.

You're guilty here, TIMJOT, of running off helter-skelter with a "little bit of knowledge" you ripped from some reference somewhere. If it's primary in nature then you're without any good context for all that I can see and surely haven't made sense of this "knowledge" in the least; if it's from an author who unearthed it from a primary then it's the case you've chosen to believe this author's extremely flimsy theory, which falls a long shot from the cold, hard actuality of history.

Basically you're just talking through your hat. That's because you don't bother to actually sit and think these things through for yourself, or even to cross-reference the many bozo theories propounded by countless authors armed with impossible schemes and personal conjecture. Everything written does not make sense, and if you go through life granting credence to everything you read or even most of what you read you're bound to learn nothing useful at the end of your studies. There's just too much conflict of thought out there.

You need to learn the discipline of scholarly discrimination and you also should develop some better self-esteem so that occasionally you have the guts to tell one of these authors, "No, that just doesn't make good sense! To me."

Meanwhile the case remains the Allies could never have supported for long or even supported initially any defense of Malaya or the greater SRA in 1941-42. The men and materiel and shipping and air assets, which is not even to mention leadership, just weren't in place or capable of arriving in time to contest this region with Japan. Supplying any such madcap venture afterward would have fallen (if possible) even further out of the realm of reality. This talk amounts to no more than one gigantic pipedream. And should the WitP model so allow for such a goofy eventuality then it would be as far out in this regard as it is in other ways with respect to its pro-Japanese bias which is so blatent in UV.

Indeed, the only way to even attempt to accurately model this kind of global grand-strategic thinking would be to design a world model of the war and place all the players back to around 1934 or thereabouts and then award or penalize them victory points on a strict basis for diplomatic decisions and whatnot with communication between all the players handled on a kind of Avalon Hill Diplomacy level . . .. and even there to be frank I can hardly conceive of this model even in outline form and as an abstract, much less as anything in actual game form. It surely would amount to a life's undertaking for someone like Grigsby. Something similar on a much more modest scale has been attempted for World at War but last I heard no AI was extant and again, at that scale I doubt much "sense" could ever be arrived at anyway.

As always, I wish you well. :)
Regarding Frank Jack Fletcher: They should have named an oiler after him instead. -- Irrelevant
User avatar
Tristanjohn
Posts: 3027
Joined: Wed May 01, 2002 4:50 am
Location: Daly City CA USA
Contact:

Post by Tristanjohn »

TIMJOT wrote:Incorrect again. MacArthur was recalled to the US Army and placed in command of USAFFE in July 1941.

Thank you for this little nugget but I was speaking off the cuff in the "greater world war" sense within the context of the real alliance of powers aligned against the Axis, not America's technical involvement in the war following Pearl Harbor.

Here's another suggestion: instead of wasting everyone's time and bandwidth trying to nitpick my copy apart you'd be better off to try and get a better grasp on the bigger picture for yourself.
Regarding Frank Jack Fletcher: They should have named an oiler after him instead. -- Irrelevant
Post Reply

Return to “War In The Pacific - Struggle Against Japan 1941 - 1945”