Mogami can spin this any way he wants but he's hurting in China. Several non-China Command divisions are engaged there now, delaying operations against other fronts. Not to mention his losses.
I'll post a screenshot with my troop movements in a few turns.
Hi, I have no major plans at start of war in China. I intend at some point prior to arrival of Allied heavy bombers to clear the RR from Canton to Yenen and from Canton to Hanoi but there is no hurry. I only undertook operations in this particular game in response to Chinese movements. If I can destroy a signicant number of Chinese units I make China a "quiet" theatre afterwards.
Since I hope to reap rewards over what I expected from start I commited a greater force. I altered the operational conduct of war to take advantage of an unforseen situation.
Both players seem to have radicaly differing opinions on what is transpiring in China. We cannot of course both be correct. Events in the near future will reveal the truth. As of last turn I've seen nothing to cast doubt on my orginal design. Of course I have seen errors in execution. The day before the Chinese began to withdraw from Wuchow in the south my units sent to cut off retreat were 6 miles from moving into hex. If I had began movement a day sooner or Svient delayed movement for 1 day there would already have been 23 Chinese formations destroyed. By the same token Japanese units have reopened lines to surrounded Japanese formations "just in time" I admit I underestimated the difficulty in maintaining my communications in Central China. Hopefully I have compensated in time. One side or the other is about to lose 100k+ troops.
If I succeed then all loses will be justified if I fail China will require a lot of effort to stabilize and Svient will indeed have altered the future events in Pacific War in a most positive manner. Japanese success in this operation will justify the delay in other operations by yielding a more secure China front for the rest of the war.
At the present moment events in the SRA are not far behind history while the South Pacific is ahead. The Burma front is also on course. China will either be way ahead or way behind, we have to wait a few more days to know.
I'm not retreating, I'm attacking in a different direction!
Hi, 3-24-42. Soon I will learn whether or not Cannae will occur.
I'm not certain what the Chinese are up to currently. They appear to be heading for the coast. (I think the entire force could have retreated through Changsha before that city was surrounded and made it impossible to surround. )
I hope to destroy the Chinese formations outlined in Yellow. The central groups first and the northern group as a follow on operation as units are freed up from the other operation.
The only questions yet to be answered are
1. How long can Changsha hold out?
2. Where will the Chinese finally be cornered?
My estimates have over 30 Chinese formations in the pocket.
Attachments
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I'm not retreating, I'm attacking in a different direction!
Will Changsa hold? Possibly not - I don't have the forces to defend against his China Exp Force plus his entire Manila/Burma force, incl the Imperial Guard.
Calling it a Cannae is just silly, it indicates surprise of which there has been none. Raids on industry and resources continue.
Hi, It is a lot like Cannae. One force continues to advance thinking it is "winning" while in fact it is being enveloped. I'll trade a few factories that I have to repair in order to destroy a major portion of the Chinese land formations. I'll regain every base in time.
I don't give a hoot about geographical locations other then those I need for my economy. Every other base on the map is only important to me for what damage I can inflict by possessing it.
I'm not retreating, I'm attacking in a different direction!
One force continues to advance thinking it is "winning"
I think you misunderstand me - China is incapable of "winning" by defeating Japan (see any other AAR for confirmation). I am "winning" in the sense that my Chinese Army is accomplishing something useful: destruction of and tying down of resources.
My goals are: keep you occupied, do as much damage as I can.
Losing Changsa is something I have to risk. If I wanted to "secure" all my cities I'd be back at the classical defense fallacy where you could concentrate and take each city at will.
The effects of my campaign will not be apparent until late in the game. China should ideally be a net provider of resources and possibly even troops. In the long run, your losses will really hurt.
(not for Mogami but it doesn't matter if he reads it I guess)
Changsa has a VERY high fortification level. I am hoping the city will hold a while (the troops there are all 70+ experience). I could be wrong of course, time will tell.
I'd say you are doing very well. In my game I'm only one hex away from Chungking. You've got the Japanese running around Nanchang and Changsa. This gives you more time to build up the fortifications of the other cities like Homan and Sian.
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I feal so dirty when I sink convoys with 4E bombers, makes porn feal wholsome. - Brady, Founding Member of the Japanese Fanboy Club
Hi, Much more important for Changsha is the supply level. As long as the troops have supply the fort level is a factor since it can only be reduced one level at a time unless I shock attack. Shock attacks against supplied troops are very costly. Against unsupplied troops fighting at 25 percent of normal they are not a problem.
The thing about China is if you count the AV of both sides at start they are pretty even.
If the Japanese concentrate at one location the Chinese can match the build up or build up else where and launch a spoiling attack.
What you don't want to do is have a large portion of the Chinese (or Japanese) placed out of supply. Then the enemy can get killing odds with much less force.
It is March 1942. If China is quiet by May 1942 then Japan has came out well ahead.
If CHina loses Chunking because it does not have the force left to defend this base then China is out of the war. I don't mean I will conquer China since I have never been interested in doing that.
The Classical defense fallacy is China's best course. Defending the inner cities is easy Japanese supply lines are too long and they have to drop off units all over China to defend the bases. China needs to be ready to defend the airfields when the time comes. A major airfield in supply at Chunking can destroy all the resource industry the Japanese hold in China. The strategic bombing airfields are what is important in China.
We will have to see the impact the coming battles have for the VP ratios.
I'm not retreating, I'm attacking in a different direction!
Hi, Any defensive plan that results in the loss of a major portion of your fighting force is flawed. Forcing the enemy to expend supply is a good thing unless he expends the supply destroying your fighting formations.
I'm not retreating, I'm attacking in a different direction!
Hi, In scenario 15 on Dec 7 1941 the forces in China are
Japan 12,000 Assault value
China 19,000 Assault value. (also more flexable because they have more overall units. )
There is no need to reinvent the defense. China has to wait for her supply to improve while not suffering any major reverse. (out of supply the Chinese 19k fights like 5k)
I'm not retreating, I'm attacking in a different direction!
Hi, In scenario 15 on Dec 7 1941 the forces in China are
Japan 12,000 Assault value
China 19,000 Assault value. (also more flexable because they have more overall units.)
Seems like it is the other way around. Why do the Chinese do so poorly in most games if they have more assault value?
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I feal so dirty when I sink convoys with 4E bombers, makes porn feal wholsome. - Brady, Founding Member of the Japanese Fanboy Club
Hi, Because a good portion of the Chinese force is out of position.
The Japanese have the better lines of communication and can move faster towards the outer Chinese bases. However this advantage does not exist beyond the North-South Rail line. The Chinese can mass in the interiour faster then the Japanese can advance. Unless of course the Chinese allow their forces to be engaged in detail.
The best Chinese communications lines are those with the worst supply situation.
I'd say that at least 25 percent of Chinese formations have to conduct long marches before they can influence events. The Chinese do themselves a big favor when they force the Japanese to come to them rather then rushing toward the Japanese who can in turn mass a greater force faster.
A slow development in China favors the Chinese. Also the 19k does not include those formations assigned to SEAC at start.
The Chinese advantage is realized when the Japanese go deep into China without the railroads to move supply. The Japanese do not have the mass to move against Chinese bases beyond the rails.
This is why I used Cannae as a reference for the campaign. The Chinese had to advance into secure Japanese supply and where the Japanese could utilize the RR for movement. Simply pushing the Chinese back towards Chunking will eventually result in the Japanese being engaed by forces they cannot achive odds on.
I don't think you will find many examples of the Japanese defeating China where they do not first have battles in the favorable areas where the results are not directly related to the Japanese being able to get there first with the most. Given time the Chinese can match any Japanese build ups. Also when the Chinese are dug in the odds become very difficult for the Japanese.
For these reasons as Japan I normally confine myself to simply clearing the RR from Canton to Yenen. That is the limit of Japanese ambition in China. I count simply on the Chinese being slower and moving towards inner China rather then coming forward. If China is going to move forward it should not begin intil the forces have had time to gather, rest and refit.
Supply is the problem. But the Chinese can then advance along a single line and have a good prospect of defeating the Japanese. (or at least getting them into a long slow battle of attrition that favor the Chinese because of the relative size of the forces involved.
(I think an advance towards Yenen is safest because there is a good line of communication from there. First retake Yenen, build up supply there and when ready begin to advance to next base. The Chinese have enough force to conduct holding operations along the front that prevent the Japanese from massing in response. This takes time but there are 1600 turns.
I'm not retreating, I'm attacking in a different direction!
