Japanese grand strategy

[moses]

Sorry Tophat:

I do write kind of loud sometimes.

[Tophat]

No problem moses.....[;)]

Hmmmn......that mythical rail-line that connects Darwin to the rest of Australia is the japs Yellowbrick-road! Get rid of it....since it didn't exist and you are left with coming in at Perth(which the allies better fortify to level 9 fast aqnyway)or from the Rabaul,NG to eastside of Australia path.

[Subchaser]

ORIGINAL: Mogami


In scenario 15 they have 3xTank Bde with total AV of 210

In my scenario they have 3x Tank Div with a total AV of 1500 (plus 2 Mech Div missing from Scneario 15 and a Airborne Bde missing from Scenario 15)

wow! 1500 assault points for free! Mogami, I understand the reasons why you added these units, but your OOB is even less accurate than official.

From the one of my previous posts on this subject.

Several months ago I was trying to convince WitP team that Soviet OB for 41/42 is wrong, if Red army can easily beat Japanese so early in war….. Divisions of Far East front were paper tigers during ’41-’43, they were used as reinforcement source, their real combat value was close to light regiment equipped with obsolete weapons and very poorly trained men. With such forces, the very idea of advance into Manchuria in 1941-42 was a pure nonsense, the lack or resources made even defense of Primorie region quite problematic. Truth can also be found in various memoirs of former commanding officers of Far East front, unfortunately, as I said, these do not provide any certain numbers.

After brief analysis of your updated Soviet OOB the following errors were found.

22nd Rifle Division
During October-November ’41 12340 men and all heavy equipment were transferred to west, unit was practically seized to exist.

26th Rifle Division
This unit was with North-West front since late august ’41, participated in action near Ilmen lake (Leningrad area) in October.

58th Tank Division (Bde) 375 Tanks (53)
Left Far East on 19th of october ’41. Some tanks and equipment was transferred to newly formed Ussurian (later 2nd) Tank Division, but this unit was also transferred to the west two months later.

60th Tank Division (Bde) 375 Tanks (53)
Left Far East on 14th of october ’41. On the basis of its HQs new Amur Tank (later 1st) division was formed in November, disbanded in april 42 with all 19(!) tanks transffered to 209th Ind. Tank brigade., which was leaving for Mostkovo (Stalingrad area)

239th Mechanized Division (Mot Bde) 275 Tanks (0)
Left Far East on 7th of november, reorganized near Podolsk (Moscow area)

8th Cavalry Division
Transferred to 19th Cavalry corps (Central Front) in January ‘42

59th Tank Division (Bde)375 Tanks (53)
69th Mechanized Division (Mot Bde) 275 Tanks (0)
Both units were transferred to the west in june ‘41, to Nelidovo - Olenino area (west front).

32nd Rifle Division
In october ’41 this division was near Mozhaisk (Moscow area) with the 5th Army.

92nd Rifle Division
Left Far East on 14th of october ’41 with 60th tank division

78th Rifle Division
In October ’41 unit was at Istra (Moscow area)

and so on…

I think Soviet forces at the start of the game should be considerably less powerful, 1200-1500 AV total, and of a very poor quality. The only thing that could stop Japanese was the barrier of fortificated areas along the border, beyond these - almost nothing to oppose them.

Japanese did not lauch Kontakusen primarly because of amazingly effective disinformation campaign initiated by GRU back in 40.

If player wants to play this game with respect to the history and common sence, he should not attack USSR, if he attacks, he should be successful and he should not speak about historical/unhistorical results anymore.

[mogami]

Hi, Round and round we go. SOviet units left Far East after the Soviets learned the Japanese were going South and were not going to attack.
The intell was excellent. If Japan had been planning to attack the Soviets would have known.
And they would have reinforced the Far East Command. They could not afford to lose it.
The impact would have been a reduced Winter Offensive. In the end this might have helped the Soviets becasue after the offensive showed success in front of Moscow and Lenningrad it was enlarged to cover the entire front. Much of the later offensive was costly for the Soviets for little gain.
So they would have had the success but not the failure.

The Western Front has no bearing on WITP. What happens there is not part of the game. Only on map locations matter. The Far East would not have sent units West but instead would have received more had Japan planned to attack there.

[Subchaser]

ORIGINAL: Mogami
SOviet units left Far East after the Soviets learned the Japanese were going South and were not going to attack.

They left to save collapsing west front, not due any other reason. Stalin in late ’41 was ready to give Far East to Japanese. Entire Kwatung Army still was there despite excellent intell, Japanese abandoned Kontakusen plan completely only in summer 42, and Aponasenko was afraid of that possible attack and was bombarding high command with reports and warnings. Read “Japanese special study on Manchuria. V.1. Operational planning against USSR”

The intell was excellent. If Japan had been planning to attack the Soviets would have known.
And they would have reinforced the Far East Command. They could not afford to lose it.

Game starts in December ’41. When nothing was 100% clear yet, but those units were already on the west front. Dilemma was – Far East in Japanese hands for year or two, or Moscow in german hands for... how many year? the choice was obvious.

The Western Front has no bearing on WITP. What happens there is not part of the game. Only on map locations matter.

Nevertheless you use Western front as an reinforcement pool.

[moses]

I going to test russia again with AdmiralLaurant as soon as I get it set up. From previous tests however current OOB leads to fairly historic results, if you allow Russia to react to the Japanese build-up. The ability of Japan to get a free shot is what makes the defeat of russia possible and even then Japan has to bring in divisions from other theaters. If you do something to increase attacker casualties then it will be nearly impossible for Japan to make progress unless they bring in 20 outside divisions.

[mogami]

Hi, I think we are left with only Moses problem with combat system in general.
OOB's do not matter. You can already make these reflect whatever version of history you want. Against the AI it will not really matter. So it is only in PBEM/Hotseat where they really matter and all you have to do is find someone who agrees with you.

Now my opinion of the combat system is that really good ratios produce really bad results for the defender and really good results for the attacker. I think this is intended. (although I lose more troops in attacks with good ratios then the defender. His are dead and mine are mostly just mixed up)

When the ratios are more even both sides suffer about even. So to me the real problem is where the OB is out of whack making one side too strong. If the Japanese can only get 1-1 in China they will lose more and do less.

That is my impression based on my results form the games I am playing currently.
China is holding in half of them and getting pushed around in the other half. In none of them is China defeating the Japanese. Defeating Japanese offensives is what China did after 1940. Since it is not happening in my games I think something is wrong. But I don't pretend to be a great player and say it becasue I handle my forces better then the historic commanders. No matter how smart I am I can make 2-1 ratios where they don't exist. They exist in WITP in too many places with too much ease.

[Nikademus]

destroying all friendly supplies on capture of the base (or Moses 90%) would, I believe go a long way towards toning down offensive drives. Supply working as it does in the game, players dont really have to worry about supply lines as long as there is a nearby base to capture. Lines only become important during sieges when troops are not yet in possession of the target. Only then is it critical to watch out for flanking attacks.

Capture (and use) of enemy supply was a reality, particularily for the Japanese during their early drives...but given the generic nature of supply in the game and how supply is consumed per turn, I think the current system creates a greater unreality as opposed to destroying most/all supply.

I've had some interesting results from testing casualties. [:)]

[moses]

Mogami: Now we're talking. You're right at 1 to 1 odds the models probably fine but as soon as you get to 2 to 1 you're getting a situation where the defender is taking kills at a 100 defenders killed for one attacker.

Now in the normal progression of the game you expect Japan to get good odds in a lot of places for the first months. After a while the game should be at relative equality for a while. Then the allies should start to get the edge and soon will have 2 to 1 advantages all over the place.

By changing the OOB so that you're in the 1 to 1 range at the start you may very well produce accurate results at the start. But inevitably these odds will shift to the allies and we will then have the same problem in reverse.

In other words I see the OOB changes as something that works only against Japan. What is needed in my opinion are changes that work to slow the attacker. Japan at the beginning and progressively the allies as the game goes on.

[Bibs]

ORIGINAL: AmiralLaurent


...

I disagree that USSR would have sent many reinforcements east in 1942, they had something else to do and Siberia was not at all important for them. But they were stronger than what is shown in the game. And land offensives were slower and more difficult than what is done in the game.

However it was vitally important to hold this area in order to get the Lend Lease material from the US which propped up the Soviet Army in 1942 and made the mechanized offensives possible in 1943+.

[Rossj]

I like your points, but I still think that there has to be a west map edge restriction on the IJA that keeps russia and india in play/prevents map edge tactics. I also think garrisons need to be required for more areas than just china and manchuria.

In my last campaign (scen 15 as Japan against ai) I conqured SRA, China, India defense perimeter, sank virtually every allied capital, had 30+ divs. ready to invade soviets and another 10+ for austrailia and it was feb 43. The scary thing is there are some players out there who are wandering what took me so long.

[moses]

Its got to be just too easy against the AI isn't it. Its just so easy to move supply that the historical constraints just don't exist. Your troops don't tire and you just push right through.

The only map edge I worry about is India because there was plenty of space for Britain to retreat to if they needed too. Mostly I worry about the British navy as it can be pinned against the west map edge and destroyed. I would like to see an ability for the british navy to withdraw off the edge and then return after a couple weeks. I see the Russia edge as less critical because I suppose if Japan actually could get to Irkustuk I don't know that Russia could support a counteroffensive. Although of course Japan would have to leave forces there to keep an eye on things.

If I were to play the AI I would probably just postpone actions in China for a month and then see if they were capabable of putting up a better resistance.

Against a human you really shouldn't be able to get to the west edge at least without huge screw-ups by your opponent.. The fact that you can is a problem that should be fixed.

A garrison should be required in Russia should it be taken of course. There should also be a minimum force level in China should it actually be conquered. The best solution would be that in the rare event that China was completely taken, it would be by Japanese units that were completely fought out and in need of massive reinforcements and recuperation.

Just my opinion and I'm a bit ill so if this makes no sence disregard.

[AmiralLaurent]

I don't think mixing with the OOB will solve this problem. Boosting Soviet OOB is a good idea to stop Japan attacking and Allied players can't use them to attack before August 1945, so will probably never do that, as they will win before. But doing this in China and India will just reverse the situation in Allied favor. Even adding static units will still allow Allied to gather all mobile troops and have a Chinese or Indian steamroller while having some defence elsewhere.

The key problem is the fact that land logistics are so efficient that players can't completly forget about them. While they were the key of the game in UV and still are in the Pacific part of WITP, where you will spend more time building supplies than really attacking, in Asia all you need is one port 2000 miles away and then supplies will arrive the day after. There is no problem supplying 10 Div on a trail or moving 20000 supplies in winter season in Siberia or in monsoon season in Burma.

If land movement of supplies was limited, then this would also add a limit to the maximum number of troops one side may have at one place, as they will eat more supplies than those actually arriving. This will help the defenders, as you can hold cities with an inferior number of troops. And are supposed to have supplies available at start.

I really think it can be done in a patch. There is probably at one time one fonction that calculates supplies/oil/ressource need for each hex. Just modify this function to put a limit to its result. If functions found a base needs 15000 more supplies, result would be she will ask only 2000 today if she has rail, 1000 if she has road, 250 if she has trail, 100 if she has nothing. Then the supply movement will be resolved with the limited values rather than the real values.

I'm pretty sure this will limit a lot the possibility to have huge mass of troops concentrated in one area. So it will be far more difficult to have a high superiority in troops somewhere and so land combat results will be handled correctly by the system. Most land campains will become attrition battles. Most units badly disrupted will have to go to rear area ports or industry centers to find enough supplies to be rebuilt/restored to operationnal status.

I also approve the fact of losing far more supplies in captured bases. Oil and ressources can be used by both sides but ammunitions, spare parts and so on can't. Losing 90% of the supplies in one location seems OK to me.

[moses]

The supply situation effects all aspects of the game. Take an "exploit" that almost everyone uses. You land a Brigade or two at Kendari with a base force following and 5-10K supplies to support the attack. You take the base in one turn and then drop off the base force. Next turn you fly in a couple bomber and zero squadrens and you have a fully operational airbase.

Aparently the dutch were nice enough to stock JP bombs and spare parts. They also apparantly neglected to dump and burn any excess aviation fuel they had left and just let you have it. You've captured 20-30K supply and you're already producing more each turn. Not only is you're airbase fully supplied but you can already use the base as a supply hub to get supply to other areas.

Have 90% of supply destroyed upon capture and require the victor to pay 10,000 sp to get production restored (if you want production you're going to have to stabalize the local economy) and the situation is reversed. Now if you want an airbase there you're going to have to bring in 50K supply. Not difficult but at least its not free.

Here's another idea. When you take a base the airfields and ports should all be damaged. Now you need supplies, engineers, and a few days to repair them for use.

[mogami]

"The Fall of Kendari, January 1942

Kendari is a small town on the southeast peninsula of Celebes facing the Banda Sea towards Amboina Island. In World War II was Kendari considered as a very important air and naval base by both sides, Japanese and Allied. Especially significant for the war effort in advancing south, Kendari airfield was an important objective from which planes (bombers) could interdict routes between Australia and the Netherlands East Indies, also able to bomb major centres on east Java and Timor Islands, like for instance Soerabaja and Koepang.


In the night of 23-24 January 1942 soldiers and officers of the Japanese Sasebo Combined Special Naval Landing Force went ashore north of Kendari. They soon (a couple of hours later) reached their main objective-the Kendari airfield. The KNIL coastal guarding detachment couldn't call because line was down. Everybody on the airfield was panicking and all this made Japanese soldiers easy to capture the airfield. Little resistance was offered and only 2 Japanese soldiers were wounded. Destruction of the Kendari airfield was incomplete. On 24 January 1942 Japanese Eastern Invasion Force appeared off Kendari. An American seaplane tender Childs (built in 1920; main arnament: 2 x 10.2cm (4in) guns)), upon leaving Kendari harbor, spotted the Japanese. A rain squall obscured the seaplane tender Childs for a while, allowing her to avoid two Japanese destroyers. Than she was attacked by six Japanese plans at 0800 but it was unhit and escaped to the south. By the evening of 24 January 1942 Kendari was fully occupied. Most of the Dutch KNIL troops officered by KNIL Army Captain F.B. van Straalen were captured by Japanese, some fought a guerilla war for a short period, while others tried to escape to safer parts of archipelago. Kendari Air Base was considered th best in the Dutch East Indies and was immediately put into operation by the Japanese 21st Air Flotilla.


On 25 January 25 Japanese fighters landed on the airfield and on 26 January 27 bombers followed by a lot more of them later. The airfield was extremly important as the Japanese could now control the important life line from Australia to Java Island and they could also bomb Java Island (Soerabaja Naval Base among others) itself. Above all a primary naval base was established at Staring Bay, just to the south of Kendari."



Hi, The actual event looks alot like what happens in WITP. Base captured. Next turn fighters arrive. Then bombers arrive. (I don't assign groups to missions the turn they transfer so first fighters arrive. Then while they are flying CAP the bombers arrive. This prevents everything being caught the turn it transfers)

[AmiralLaurent]

ORIGINAL: moses

The supply situation effects all aspects of the game. Take an "exploit" that almost everyone uses. You land a Brigade or two at Kendari with a base force following and 5-10K supplies to support the attack. You take the base in one turn and then drop off the base force. Next turn you fly in a couple bomber and zero squadrens and you have a fully operational airbase.

Aparently the dutch were nice enough to stock JP bombs and spare parts. They also apparantly neglected to dump and burn any excess aviation fuel they had left and just let you have it. You've captured 20-30K supply and you're already producing more each turn. Not only is you're airbase fully supplied but you can already use the base as a supply hub to get supply to other areas.

Have 90% of supply destroyed upon capture and require the victor to pay 10,000 sp to get production restored (if you want production you're going to have to stabalize the local economy) and the situation is reversed. Now if you want an airbase there you're going to have to bring in 50K supply. Not difficult but at least its not free.

Here's another idea. When you take a base the airfields and ports should all be damaged. Now you need supplies, engineers, and a few days to repair them for use.

Don't go to far. Having enemy engineers in a base that is taken by the enemy assures that the base will be damaged by the engineers destroying everything they can before leaving.

Agree with the 90% supply destroyed but not on the production stopped. They are allready damaged by battles.

As for Dutch storing Japanese bombs, this was not the case but most of the bombs dropped by IJA planes on British troops in Malaya were British bombs captured in Khota Bharu and Alor Star among other places. And part of supplies are food and medics that everybody can use (Marines using only sake from japanese rations, of course)

[mogami]

Hi, I have Dadman, Kereguelen, Sveint, Brady ,Lee, RonS all playing Allied in scenario 15 PBEM.
Speed of advance in SRA is not based on captured supply but on enemy opposition.

In one game it is June and Java has not completly fallen. In another it is early Mar and the SRA is already almost completley Japanese.
The reason is simple. In one the Allies fought in the other it was the "Sir Robin Defense"

[moses]

Cool example. The key point you left out is how did the Japanese supply the operation. You might operate fighters for a couple days off captured fuel but within a day or two you better be bringing in some supplies. Crazy things do happen in war. Sometimes all the defenders just run away as in the example. Sometime supply depots are just handed over to the enemy intact. But I think in a game you have to assume that the defenders will put up a little resistance and that they at least try and destroy any useful supplies.

In your games you play very conservativly and place a bunch of your ships in port to portray those needed for commercial shipping. (If I understand your past posts correctly) In games I have played and many many games viewed by AAR's it is fairly easy to secure the SRA well ahead of scheduale and using only a fraction of available Japanese shipping. I'm talking about games that do not use first turn exploits) Of course results in this theater can be easily disrupted by an adverse navel action but the fact still remains that it is very easy to supply operations in the game.

Long ago it was said that it would be extremely difficult to take Pearl Harbor and hold it due to the difficulty of supplying it. Lo and behold WITP_Dude does it and supply was not much problem. Just look at all the transport ships he lost. Oh my God!! And yet he can still turn around and invade New Zealand!!!! The invasion failed but not for lack of supply. Why is it that supply is not the constraint in the game that it was IRL?

Why is it possible to even consider an invasion of India? Primarily its because it is possible to take a base which contains and produces large amounts of supplies and then operate off of that supply base. Secondarily it is because Japan has more transport capability allocated to the military than IRL (I'm basing this one on your past posts). Thirdly when you get to India your forces will not suffer any casualties so you won't need to worry about replacements.

Love the game. I really do, it was money well spent. But don't you think that a few changes should be made to address these problems.[:)]

[Zeta16]

ORIGINAL: moses


Long ago it was said that it would be extremely difficult to take Pearl Harbor and hold it due to the difficulty of supplying it. Lo and behold WITP_Dude does it and supply was not much problem. Just look at all the transport ships he lost. Oh my God!! And yet he can still turn around and invade New Zealand!!!! The invasion failed but not for lack of supply. Why is it that supply is not the constraint in the game that it was IRL?

It wasn't hard for him to get them there becasue allied sub doc was on and my subs did not fire a torp for like 6 months. Since are games was derailed becuase of the disappearing Am5, he gave me his password to to some research. I am trying to see what happened to the zekes. So the only thing I am doing is moving oil/resoures and supply/fuel to keep is units in supply to test some things. He is low on supply all over the place. If he tried to move into India it would have been tough. The base where he was going to advance from has very little supply, so I think his move into India would have been very hard. The Jungles kill supply movement. maybe there should be more paths than roads all over china to counter this.

[Farfarer61]

Why not re-hard wire the game so that Japanese units cannot enter Russian territory unless Russia attacks first? Then hard wire the Russian AI not to attack until they did in 1945. I mean Stalin absolutely KNEW the Japanese were never, ever going to attack. Why bring such a colossal what if into the game by allowing a Soviet campaign? It is not Axis and Allies here.