Courtenay's solitaire AAR

[Courtenay]

Two attacks, five Allied units dead. This is not a sustainable level of losses. Of course, the Germans can't sustain any losses, either.

The Allies suddenly realize what they did wrong in these attacks: there is one more surrounded unit to attack in Kiel. Clearly that attack was meant to use up a bad die roll.

The Russians attack Kiel at +10.2. They don't make the fractional odds roll (.718), but roll a 15, killing an INF at no cost. As I said, this attack should have been used for a different die roll.

[Courtenay]

The next attack is against a single Italian MOT XX in Pola. It is automatic. To the Russian's surprise, they roll an 8. Normally automatic attacks get much higher rolls than that.

[Courtenay]

The Russians skip over the Austrian attack to make the important attack, the one on Manstein. The Germans get to choose the table, and have a tough choice: Go for total victory, by calling for the Assault table, or try to preserve Manstein by calling for a blitz? The attack is a +7.923 attack (the paratroopers really helped, here.) They decide that the 10% chance of winning an assault battle is not worth it, and call for a blitz. Astonishingly, this is the correct decision, as the Russians make the fractional odds roll (.413), and then roll a 10. Manstein retreats and half the Russians flip. If the Germans had called for an assault, all the Russians would have flipped, but Manstein would be dead. As it is, he has been driven out of one of the best defensive hexes in the game: mountains behind a river.

[Courtenay]

Next, the US makes an automatic attack against the Bremen MIL. This time, the Luftwaffe did not come to save this unit. At +20, it doesn't look like an automatic attack, but since it is a blitz attack against a single unit, it is. I would like to claim marvelous foresight in using the minimum strength to guarantee a result; actually, the Americans simply attacked the best units that could reach. The US rolls a 13. A German resource falls. This completes the set, as the Japanese and Italians have each also lost a resource this impulse.

[Courtenay]

The Russians, next to the Americans, say "We will show you how things should be done," as they attack Magdeburg at +10.867. They do. Not only do they make the fractional odds roll (.233), they roll a 19, killing a German INF and an ARM XX. The Germans don't have much armor or divisions left, so they thought about keeping the ARM XX, but the Germans are also short of just plain old corps, and they decide to keep their large INF.

[Courtenay]

The Russians finish the German front with a +7.083 attack against Cavellero in Austria. The Germans decide that here they really don't want a B results, and pick assault. Amazingly, the Russians roll a .001 for their fractional odds roll. I guess that happens one time in a thousand. They would have preferred to have that luck in the main die roll; as it is, they roll a 9. The Germans realize that, as usual, they picked the wrong table; both of their units would have survived and still be on a the map if they picked blitz. If they had picked blitz, the Russians would have rolled an eleven, of course. After some thought, the Germans keep the Italian HQ on the map. The fact that it is on rail line is the reason for this choice. The German INF takes down a Russian INF as it dies.

[Courtenay]

Now is the time for the Allies to open a new front. The attack on Bari goes in. As far as I can tell there is a bug; it is a blitz attack against a non-city clear terrain hex in fair weather, not across a fort hexside, so the attacker should get a +0.25 blitz bonus from the ARM marine unit. However, MWiF does not give this to me. The fact that this is an invasion should not affect the blitz bonus. Any way, this does not make any difference, as, on a +8.333 blitz, the CW makes the fractional odds roll (.193) and then rolls a 12, for a 21. No CW units are lost or flipped, and the hex falls. The CW is in Italy, and I don't see what the Axis can possibly do about it. The desperate attempt by the Axis airforce to throw the Allies back into the sea failed.

[Courtenay]

Finally, the CW assaults Rangoon, at +10.643. The Japanese see no benefit to being forced to retreat from Rangoon, and call for an assault. The CW makes the fractional odds roll (.413), but then only rolls a 7. This kills the Burmese TERR at no cost to the Allies, except all their units are now flipped. Rangoon will hold at least for this turn. Anything higher, and it would have fallen.

If I only knew what order to make my attacks in to take advantage of good die rolls, I would play WiF so much better. [:)]

No screen shot.

[Courtenay]

Two Allied FTRs fly to Bari. Many Allied FTRs move to Sardinia, Malta, Tirana, and the Yugoslav coast; they are intended to get to Italy to increase the Allied garrison value there. At the moment, only two will fit; that will increase greatly over the next few impulses.

The US unloads two LND-3s into Bremen. A Float plane flies into Truk, where a CVP on land is loaded onto the Hornet. Also a large FTR unloads into Truk. Unfortunately, the US has a 7 point CVP that they can't figure out how to get onto any carrier.

A B-17 flies from San Francisco to the French Frigate Shoals. Next impulse it should be able to get to someplace useful. I note with interest that a B-17 does not have enough range to bomb Japan from the Marianas, while a B-29 does.

The US unloads two LND-3s from the North Sea into Germany.

The Russians shove forward those planes that weren't in reach of anything, as do the British.

[Courtenay]

The Russians use a TB-7 to reorganize the AA gun.

The Russians discover that their HQs are not in good positions. I made my usual mistake of counting from the unit to the HQ, not the HQ to the unit. Zhukov is used to reorganize four ground units and a TB-7.

The Americans use MacArthur and Bradley to reorganize all the surviving ground units that attacked the I SS, plus the an ART.

The CW uses Alexander to reorganize the units that attacked Essen, plus a Typhoon.

The Americans use two AMPHs in the north Sea to reorganize two bombers on the coast, and a transport adjacent to Brisbane to reorganize the transport that sailed there.

[Courtenay]

M/A 44 Axis #2:
Ge land, It combined, Ja naval
Pleasingly symmetric. The Axis doesn't find anything else at all pleasing in this situation.

The Western Axis has to make two hard decisions. The first is whether Italy can survive past the end of the turn. The answer to that is relatively simple: Almost certainly not. So the Italians are going to try and get as many of their units out of Italy as they can.

The Germans have a problem: they don't have enough units to hold the whole line they currently occupy. The are several places where the line is very thin, and there is one outright hole where the I SS corps used to be. They have to abandon somewhere, either the north or the south. Since most of their planes and their oil is in the south, and they have more depth in the south, they decide to hold the south. The Ruhr is, except for the one flipped unit in Essen and the Rome MIL in Dusseldorf, going to be abandoned. If the Allies had not fouled up their ground strikes so badly, this would not have been possible. However, they did, so the Germans can pull off a retreat. Hitler is told that the defenders of Essen are to hold to the last; he is not told that the rest of the Ruhr is being abandoned. His Generals are hoping he won't notice.

The Japanese have a tactical, rather than a strategic decision -- where to fight. If they attack the Bismark Sea, they have superiority, but the China Sea is what they have to hold onto. They will commit their navy to the China Sea. They have another problem: Which box do they go to? They have units that can only get to the two box, a few that can get to the three box, and some that can get to the four box. However, the US outnumbers the units that can get to the four box. They decide to split their forces between the two and the four box. This may be a bad decision.

Impressively, despite having lost 11 CPs this impulse, the Japanese still have a reserve of 17 CPs, not counting the 4 CPs that were aborted. Only one CP is being produced, though. Also the loss of the Philippine resource reduces the number of CPs the Japanese need by two. For some reason, the Japanese are not grateful for that fact.

[Courtenay]

The Italians move their two remaining surface ships to the Italian coast, hoping to sink Montgomery.

The Japanese try filtering CPs through the China Sea to the South China Sea, one at a time. Needing fours, the US attempts to intercept, and rolls 6, 10, 10, 2, 7, 1. The two that were intercepted stop in the China Sea. After that, the Japanese load a PAR on to a TRS in Haichow, and try to slip through the China Sea. The US attempts to intercept, and rolls a 10. I don't think the Americans found the sea, much less any ships on it.

I was so focused on the China Seas, that I completely forgot the Japanese submarines. This was not a tactical decision; this was a plain, old-fashioned mistake. I will try and rectify it later in the turn.

[Courtenay]

Unlike reality, where the US fast carrier forces stayed together, here they are split. "Bull" Halsey's Third Fleet was in the China Sea, and was driven back to Truk impulse one. Raymond Spruance's Fifth Fleet approached cautiously in the China Sea, and sank some Japanese CPs while waiting for the Japanese to come to them. Indeed, the Japanese initiates combat in the China Sea. However, the US finds the Japanese on a four, while the Japanese roll a 7. The US takes advantage of the split Japanese forces, and fights only the two box. The US saves its four surprise points, thinking a +3/-3 advantage in the air is good enough. The US starts with a 16, DX PF, killing a Kate and its pilot, while the Japanese roll a 7 for no effect. The next round goes better for the Japanese, as the US rolls a 10, clearing a Jill through. The Japanese roll a 15, DA, aborting a Dauntless. The next round the US rolls a 7, AA, and abort the front Japanese fighter. The Japanese rolls a 9, clearing a slightly better Dauntless through. The next round, the US rolls a 14, for another AA, aborting another fighter, while the Japanese roll an 11, DC, clearing yet another, better, Dauntless through. The Japanese decided that a -5 is too much to fight through, and abort the combat.

[Courtenay]

The US's AA is simple: roll one die. They do, and roll an 8. A Kate is aborted back to its carrier.

[Courtenay]

Now it is the Japanese's turn for its AA. It starts out at lowest 2 of 5, but the US uses its hoarded surprise points to change that to lowest one of two. The Japanese roll a 9 and a 3, reducing the US bomb strength to 19.

[Courtenay]

19 is a lot of bomb strength; it produces 3X, a D and an A. The US puts its first X on the Akagi. She saves, with an 8. The Japanese put an X on their worst CL, the Tatsuta. She rolls well, a 7, but her armor is so thin that an 8 would not have been enough. The Tatsuta slides beneath the waves. The Akagi follows her, as the US puts the third X on her. The Akagi rolls a 1, but this is irrelevant, as she would sink on any die roll. The Japanese pick the Fuso to absorb the D. The Fuso rolls a 5, and is aborted. Lastly, the US puts an A on the Junyo, as she is carrying the better fighter of the two remaining carriers in the two box. The Junyo rolls another one, and aborts. When CVPs return to their carriers, the US leaves the Wasp II completely empty. There is a 7 pt size five CVP back in Truk that wants to fill that space.

[Courtenay]

With this good beginning, the US is eager to continue the fight. The Japanese are not going to abandon the sea zone, and also stick around. The Americans again find the Japanese, rolling a 3, while the Japanese manage to misplace the ocean, rolling a 10. The Americans think that it highly unlikely they will ever roll better than this, and pick only the four box to include in the fight. The air combat starts at +2/-2 for the Americans. They only manage that by using a 2 point plane as a fighter. They spend two surprise points to turn it into a +2/-3. The first round, both sides roll sixes. The US inflicts a DX; the Japanese take the loss on a Kate. The Japanese inflicts a DA; a Dauntless returns to its carrier. The second round, the US rolls an 8, DA; this aborts a Nell back to Japan. The Japanese respond with an 19! However, even this extreme roll is "only" a DX PX. The Americans get to choose the casualty, and they of course choose another Dauntless. The third round, the US counters that 19 with their own 2, AX. The lead Japanese fighter, a carrier based Zero, blows up. The Japanese roll a 14, for no effect. On round four, the US rolls a 6, DX, killing an Oscar. The Japanese roll a 16, DA, and the Americans pick their lead fighter; they want bombers to get through. The Japanese, totally outclassed in the air, abort. This may have been a mistake.

[Courtenay]

The US uses two surprise points to shift the Japanese AA down to lowest 1 of 3 from 1 of 2. The Japanese rolled a 2; other numbers not recorded. 12 US bombing points get through.

[Courtenay]

The US uses its last two surprise points to shift its damage up one, from 2X, a D and 2 A to 3X and 2 A. The US picks the Ryujo, carrying the best Japanese CVP, as the target of the first X. The Ryujo obligingly rolls a three, and sinks. The Japanese again put an X on a bad cruiser, the Yubari, which surprisingly rolls a 9, saves, and is damaged. The Americans put the third X on the only remaining carrier in the sea area with a plane still on it, the Hiryu. The Hiryu also rolls a 3, and also sinks. The Japanese put an A on the Shokuku, which does not have any planes on it; the Japanese are hoping she goes home, but contrarily, she rolls another 9, and sticks around. The US puts the last A on the best cruiser in the sea box, the Chikuma. The Chikuma rolls a A and is aborted.

[Courtenay]

The third round, the Japanese find the US, with a four. Unfortunately, only the four box finds. Even more unfortunately, the US rolls a 1. There are no Japanese aircraft left in the four box. All the Japanese can do is take it. The US has eleven planes. They take a look at the AA table, and make one of them a fighter. The US sends the Black Widow as a bomber so that it can absorb an abort, rather than having a CVP killed. The US uses two of its three surprise points to lower the Japanese AA from one of one to two lowest of five. The Japanese roll 2, 5, 2, 8, and 2, reducing the US bomb strength by four. There are still an awful lot of US bombers, though; 31 bomb points get through.