The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[BBfanboy]

Fuel is not flowing to Manila because there is no fuel usage going on there - because there is no fuel! Catch-22.
You just need to prime the pump with a small tanker load and have the ships use it. After that it should flow from Legaspi.

[paullus99]

Sounds like a good opportunity to use your smaller combatants to clear out those "riff-raff." Perhaps set up some CAP-traps of your own.

[JohnDillworth]

What did you end up losing? 3 CVE's? Serious question, how long will it take for 3 CVE's to roll out of the shipyards?

[Lowpe]

With the Akagi there you really can't call the Singers CV TF the mini KB can you?

[BillBrown]

3 weeks?

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: jwolf


Lowpe, you are one devious son of a .... [X(]
[;)] It goes to show even under desperate circumstances a clever player can make things very painful for the other side.

A few weeks later, after Hiroshima fell, I managed to use DD, or APD or MTB to divert another CVE task force heading to Hiroshima to route away from the nasty surface fleet [;)] and take the route past my CD guns and sunk a half dozen or more. There were two ways to Hiroshima, and the AI chose the path less traveled to their chagrin.

[AcePylut]

"From a victory point standpoint, this raid is a netplus for John, unless it results in VP losses elsewhere".


VP's are all that matters in this game. I'm doubting that you knowing some IJ CV's are in the SoPac changes your plans one bit.

[GetAssista]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
... though at the moment Manial doesn't have fuel. It's not drawing it overland for Legaspi, despite the good network.

You know what to do - same you did at Normanton. Base DS from Manila for a couple turns and fuel will stock up

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: AcePylut
VP's are all that matters in this game. I'm doubting that you knowing some IJ CV's are in the SoPac changes your plans one bit.

"VPs are all that matters" is the truth but not the whole truth. The whole truth is that correctly positioning yourself to maximize VPs is the key to the game.

The question is whether SoPac KB's raid is ultimately beneficial, from a VP standpoint. Tactically, yes. Operationally, probably. Strategically, I contend, no way.

[AcePylut]

My point was - what do you gain from it? Does these CV's in the SoPac speed up your conquest elsewhere? If so, by how much? And if it does by "that much", do you outgain the VP's lost?

Just questions

[Canoerebel]

That's something I've explained before. Keeping tabs on victory points is probably more important to Japan than to the Allies throughout the first years of the game. I can understand that this raid possibly - not definitively, but possibly - makes sense from a victory point perspective.

But for the Allies, victory points really aren't an issue until the closing months or year of the game (VP are always an issue, just paling in comparison to the real issue). For the Allies, I think it's counterproductive to obsess about VPs in the early years. Early on the game is about Japan's ability to wage war, so that trading capital ships can be quite effective no matter what the actual VP ration might be. If the Allied player takes out a bunch of CAs and BBs so that KB is left short of escorts, that can affect Japan's ability to wage war.

In the mid game and early stages of the late game, gaining an advantageous position to prosecute the war - to bring it home - is more important that actual VP ratios.

If this is done right - and without wastefully losing VPs - the Allied player ends up in an advantageous position - and the Japanese player a disadvantageous one - as the war draws into its closing months.

Here I think the Allies have accomplished both objectives - attritioning the Japanese navy and closing on the Home Island - probably ahead of schedule. If I'm right, the Allies are in a position now to "harvest" VPs at a much quicker rate than if I had played more conservatively while obsessing about VP ratios.

From that aspect, the freedom to expedite Peep Show - to seize three islands in proximity to Formosa - while KB was divided and off on raiding missions, was an important development. I think the Allied advances in Luzon and possibly with Peep Show will prove the folly of John's raiding mentality, just as the Celebes campaign prevented (or helped prevent) John from attending to the Philippines.

[Lowpe]

For CR to really start gaining victory points he has to break the fighter back of Japan. The speed of this will depend a great deal upon how well prepared Japan is for this different type of warfare. We know that Japan has the Sam and Frank so they are off to a good start there, and we know that night bombing is off in some kind of limbo but for at least now it is not in the toolbox for the Allies. Advantage Japan. (Now when I say advantage Japan I merely mean that they should be able to resist the inevitable longer).


Secondly, he needs to destroy new production - engines or frame production or both.

One and two above can be accomplished if Japan runs out of supplies or HI production & pool.

Now the Allies have lots of advantages and being the aggressor is perhaps the greatest. CR can pick and choose what to attack. Relative pilot quality most likely goes to the Allies.

Another advantage that CR seems to have is he seems to enjoy more aspects of the game. As players we tend to do better at those parts of the game we enjoy. John loves CVs and slashing naval attacks. It seems to me CR enjoys that, but enjoys the bigger picture, planning and logistics, and quite frankly that part of the game for both players is critical -- perhaps even more important for Japan since a screwup with the economy is fatal at the endgame.

I am not sure how either player is measuring success. It seems to me this game, barring a personal morale failure, will easily make 1945. How deep into 1945 is the question.

[MakeeLearn]

Does Japan get a lot of new ground units in '45? Or is its ground force strength dependent on what the player brings back to Japan.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn



Does Japan get a lot of new ground units in '45? Or is its ground force strength dependent on what the player brings back to Japan.

Japan will get 10 militia divisions on the HI when the Allies hit a trigger point.

Wiped out units can be bought back and spawn in Tokyo in 20-30 days for rebuilding.

But to answer your question simply: Tons. They need supply and armaments and vehicle points galore to fill out though. Most JFB's don't anticipate the huge drain on the economy they put Japan thru.

[ny59giants]

Professor Lowpe,

What amount of Vehicles, Armament, Supplies, Oil/Fuel, Engines, etc. to you try to stockpile by a specific date as Japan?? Say by Jan 1st '44 or other dates.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

Professor Lowpe,

What amount of Vehicles, Armament, Supplies, Oil/Fuel, Engines, etc. to you try to stockpile by a specific date as Japan?? Say by Jan 1st '44 or other dates.

A lot of variables there Michael, not the least is the scenario, and whether or not refining generates a point of supply.

In most games, it is impossible to stockpile oil as it gradually grinds down. You can turn off refining in the SRA and ship it back to the HI/Port Arthur but that is situational on the game, the scenario settings.

Supply: Sit down, Michael.[;)] You need in excess of 6 million. 8 million is better; especially in a scenario 2 style game. Incredibly difficult to get there. Now a lot, say over 1-2 million depends upon your late plane builds. If they are front loaded, then you don't need as much. JFB's routinely waste large amounts of supplies in repairs, fort building, base expansion, plane mistakes, spoilage, economic expansion, etc.

Vehicles and Armaments should never ever be turned off if you plan to play into 1945, especially to Soviet activation. Vehicles probably should be at 230+. Normal recommendations is 180+, but that is incredibly low even for a scenario 1 game.

Fuel: 1 years stockpile plus. That is greater than 3 million in a scenario 2 game. You should not run out of fuel, as it cannot be destroyed except by spoilage (once stored); and you have great control over how much of it you use. However, most JFB's will run short eventually and obviously much more difficult in a scenario 1 game.

Fighters: You need to be prepared for the massive Army Fighter expansion in 1st Qtr 44, the IJNAF fighter reduction in 6/44 and the horrendous air war that will take place over the HI at some point. Massive investment in front line 45 fighters for Japan is almost never a waste of supply, and in fact protects supply generation. In 1945 you might be making 2000 fighters a month! And losing them! The sooner you realize this, the sooner you learn the importance of late war fighters that use an early engine like the Jack and Ki100. For a smaller investment of supply you can generate a surplus of engines because production will be running for the entire game. Most players never make enough Ha45...and some other engine types too.

PS: If you have less, you simply start making sacrifices sooner. Not the end of the world.

[Canoerebel]

I have little experience playing into the late game (and none more recent than 2009), and I've never played Japan. I know the economy is a critical aspect of the game for Japan, that Japan can crash it and that the Allies can give it a good shove in the right direction. But I do not intimately know the workings, nor how to accurately assess what condition John might be in right now.

A few players have posited that John is in good shape economically due to the lack of attrition to his merchant fleet. I don't know if their analysis is based on reading John's AAR, gleaned from what I've said in mine (I don't mention sub warfare that often, but I think the Allies have actually done pretty well), or both. I have some optimism about John's economy given his heavy losses (I think) in shipping, the fact that some of his oil production was damaged, destroyed and not repaired, offset by the fact that he had Magwe until early 1944), and by the fact that he's steamed hard around the map a lot. But that's all very nebulous (amorphous) in my mind, and hard to judge.

I've said many times that I had three objectives. Here there are and how things stand:

1. Attrition the Japanese navy: This has gone very well. In late '43 and early '44, John was highly reluctant to commit his ships, giving me the freedom to move forward in this elongated campaign with little threat to my merchant fleet. Of late he has rebuilt his navy and is prowling again - SoPac and Miri being two examples. His carrier fleet is his strongest asset now, so there will probably be a big battle coming, unless something happens where his carriers get frittered away by lucky sub strikes or whatever. He's done nothing to hit the Allied LOC, and supply long ago become the deciding factor in the Allied advances. John is now running low on safe shipyards and pretty soon sea room will be an issue for his combat and merchant ships.

2. Interdict his LOC to the DEI: Medan's oil production took a huge hit when John recaptured it, and he didn't repair one major oil facility damaged at the start of the game, but the "no strategic bombing until 1944" HR prevented me from attending to Magwe. Allied sub warfare has been reasonably successful (I think). And now the DEI is truly interdicted, though John is slipping a few merchant TFs down the China/Indochina coast. That'll stop soon. Two months ago, game time, the Chinese interdicted the supply routes inbound from Indochina. I thought this was a major development that would demand John's full attention, but he's totally ignored it. Since merchant shipping is trickling down and will soon disappear, I thought he'd rely on overland transport. But it doesn't seem to concern him. I'm not sure what all that means, yet. He's lost Miri, and I'll move on Balikpapan when Peep Show winds down. I'll initiate occasional strategic bombing of Palembang and the Java oil production centers as soon as Miri's airfield is about size six. I do not know how John's economy is doing but possibly its not robust given the way he plays.

3. Obtain big airfields within proximity of the Home Islands for Strategic Bombing: Progress here has been good. Luzon is a bit far, but Formosa and vicinity should be close enough to allow strategic bombing to escalate properly.

I should add a fourth item: Points harvesting to win the accounting aspect of the game: I've claimed before that the Allies frontloaded this, investing in heavy and costly action early on to achieve an advantageous situation later. I think that's on target, too. Points should become much more available soon: John's losing Army points in big chunks as the Allies advance, with the fall of Luzon (and hopefully the fall of Formosa) offering sizeable chunks; he's running out of sea room and safe ports, so that his shipping should be much more vulnerable; some valuable bases are now rather isolated and exposed to eventual capture; and strategic bombing will begin in earnest, probably by the end of the summer or early autumn.

[Lowpe]

Is this the first time you have definitely claimed Formosa as a target?

[jwolf]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Is this the first time you have definitely claimed Formosa as a target?

From post 10018:

Regarding Peep Show, I have one division 100% prepped for a major target. I have about three divisions prepping for the beachhead target. They're all around 40% now, so they'll be minimally ready when it's time to go. I have another four or five divisions prepping for non-beachhead targets. They're mostly in the upper 30s. By the time they could conceivably reach their targets, they'll probably be at or close to 100%.

The beachhead target is open terrain that will be in proximity to Aparri's big airfield and others besides. John has the base strongly garrisoned, but it should be hard for him to make a protracted stand against the combined might of the Allied military forces available. He's going to need a Consolidate KB to assist. I bet he brings it in, eventually. This is going to be a tough, noisy and flashy campaign.

Sounds pretty clear the "beachhead target" is on Formosa, although I suppose it's only about 99% certain.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Fuel: 1 years stockpile plus. That is greater than 3 million in a scenario 2 game. You should not run out of fuel, as it cannot be destroyed except by spoilage (once stored); and you have great control over how much of it you use. However, most JFB's will run short eventually and obviously much more difficult in a scenario 1 game.

I disagree with the highlighted statement - I am pretty sure I have seen "port fuel hits" results during bombardments.

EDIT: Found an example in my current game: