8MP Team Game - The Axis team

[Crackaces]

Finland Turn 56:

We get a new Finish Armored unit. The Germans put it to work right away breaking the northern line. Add some SU's and th Soviets get a mild surprise! I think Finish SU's used early are the key for a successful Janisjarvi breakthrough ..

[Crackaces]

Tambov Turn 56:

What AGC has been working on is moving South Southeast to isolate Tambov. It is fort level 3 and would be a difficult if not impossible direct assault. But we get pinches around the city sealing its fate for turn 57 ..

[Crackaces]

The picture below shows the total air losses as of Turn 56:

What the Germans found in recon was that all Soviet air was placed in a cluster around Saratov, fighters were set to fly no more then 3 hexes away

There were weaknesses in the base set up and, with a very extensive Kabuki, could have been attacked. But almost all the bombers are in reserve or need to go to reserve this turn so the moment was not opportune. Thus the air war was very light on the German turn 56

[Crackaces]

The South:

A quick update from work... on Turn 56 the Germans embark on a land grab. The main purpose of this operation is to expand the front, take undefended manpower centers (every 1 Manpower point is 50 less Soviets per turn -- 10 manpower over 10 weeks is 1 less Soviet Division); and threaten Baku. The Soviets have a decision to strip off a layer of defense around Tambov or lose the Caucasus ..

[xhoel]

Thanks for the screens Aces! Can I get the ground losses too?

Nice land grab. Do the Soviets have any units whatsoever in the Caucasus? They are looking strong in front of Tambov. You should watch your lines held only by Rumanians/Axis Allies.

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: xhoel

Thanks for the screens Aces! Can I get the ground losses too?

Nice land grab. Do the Soviets have any units whatsoever in the Caucasus? They are looking strong in front of Tambov. You should watch your lines held only by Rumanians/Axis Allies.

You will see on turn 61 .. my use of weak forces can be a gambit of sorts that is giving up something for later gain .. The Soviets attacked a position on the Oka with initial success but armor slid underneath and ruined the party

So in way the weak units are just a speed bump that allows the Germans to evaluate and manage threats.

[Crackaces]

So the turn 56 (no logistical phase) ground losses along with losses to date is shown below. The high Soviet losses are from the clean of an isolated pocket near Rostov. M60 cannot be held responsible for that debacle ..

[Telemecus]

ORIGINAL: xhoel
Nice land grab. Do the Soviets have any units whatsoever in the Caucasus? They are looking strong in front of Tambov. You should watch your lines held only by Rumanians/Axis Allies.

The lack of any forces in the Caucasus was noticeble during the team game. The usual vista elsewhere was lines of Soviet units digging in along rear river lines - but down there nothing. I imagine the Soviet side will say it is about prioritisation. But if the Axis are not simply going to walk into Baku you will need some forces to stop them - probably at the extremes of their supply lines. And if you are going to have some forces in the Caucasus, why not now to act as a slowing down trip wire? The West Caucasus have over 40 manpower centres alone so it will hurt. Even a couple of cavalry brigades setting up traps even if picked up would make the Axis advance a cautious slower one.

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: Telemecus

ORIGINAL: xhoel
Nice land grab. Do the Soviets have any units whatsoever in the Caucasus? They are looking strong in front of Tambov. You should watch your lines held only by Rumanians/Axis Allies.

The lack of any forces in the Caucasus was noticeble during the team game. The usual vista elsewhere was lines of Soviet units digging in along rear river lines - but down there nothing. I imagine the Soviet side will say it is about prioritisation. But if the Axis are not simply going to walk into Baku you will need some forces to stop them - probably at the extremes of their supply lines. And if you are going to have some forces in the Caucasus, why not now to act as a slowing down trip wire? The West Caucasus have over 40 manpower centres alone so it will hurt. Even a couple of cavalry brigades setting up traps even if picked up would make the Axis advance a cautious slower one.

I have noticed more units on the rails from Stalingrad to Baku .. on Turn 61 the rail to the Caucuses has been cut so any more forces will have to fight their way down the Rail line.

More on turn 57 once the turn arrives. (Staying 5 turns behind in this AAR.)

A look in the Soviet AAR shows more recent developments. Including hooliganism! It seems Stalin had a past that the German's are exploiting in exposing the true Stalinist regime .. "Soviet Guards units! Join with your comrades into the 'German circles of friendship' ..."

[xhoel]

ORIGINAL: Telemecus

ORIGINAL: xhoel
Nice land grab. Do the Soviets have any units whatsoever in the Caucasus? They are looking strong in front of Tambov. You should watch your lines held only by Rumanians/Axis Allies.

The lack of any forces in the Caucasus was noticeble during the team game. The usual vista elsewhere was lines of Soviet units digging in along rear river lines - but down there nothing. I imagine the Soviet side will say it is about prioritisation. But if the Axis are not simply going to walk into Baku you will need some forces to stop them - probably at the extremes of their supply lines. And if you are going to have some forces in the Caucasus, why not now to act as a slowing down trip wire? The West Caucasus have over 40 manpower centres alone so it will hurt. Even a couple of cavalry brigades setting up traps even if picked up would make the Axis advance a cautious slower one.

My thoughts exactly.

There are still minor rivers and big cities in the region so I do not understand why the Soviet player would give all of this away for free. Some weak armies deployed in the area with the intent of slowing the Germans down would be a good idea even if in the end they get destroyed in the process. As it is, the whole Caucasus is being taken by 2-3 Panzer Corps if I'm seeing it correctly. That kind of a force would never make such huge gains if it encountered proper resistance however meager that might be. The Germans just advanced 100 miles in 1 week and have taken major cities that are important for the manpower of the Soviet Army.

[SparkleyTits]

Probably just deciding to hold Baku as that'll need a lot less dilution of troops from elsewhere over the front?
Shame about the manpower centres though thats a nice hub and a good easy haul for you!

[M60A3TTS]

I was watching some video clips on YouTube from the movie Moneyball and it draws some parallels with comments I see here. Some of you are acting as though it is business as usual for the Soviet side and it is anything but. The loss of Moscow has a huge ripple effect in terms of manpower. Of course I would defend the Caucasus if I had the manpower, but I do not, so I defend what I can. Soviet National Morale as of right now is 46 which means if Crackaces wants to go somewhere, he can. The best I can do right now is get in his way and slow him down. Even that entails risk and the price of guessing wrong even a few times can be fatal. The same thing goes for the air forces. So much was lost in the early going that without simply disappearing for 4-6 months, it is a steep hill to climb in getting back to a condition that resembles parity. Eventually I will get there, but it is just going to take time.

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: M60A3TTS

I was watching some video clips on YouTube from the movie Moneyball and it draws some parallels with comments I see here. Some of you are acting as though it is business as usual for the Soviet side and it is anything but. The loss of Moscow has a huge ripple effect in terms of manpower. Of course I would defend the Caucasus if I had the manpower, but I do not, so I defend what I can. Soviet National Morale as of right now is 46 which means if Crackaces wants to go somewhere, he can. The best I can do right now is get in his way and slow him down. Even that entails risk and the price of guessing wrong even a few times can be fatal. The same thing goes for the air forces. So much was lost in the early going that without simply disappearing for 4-6 months, it is a steep hill to climb in getting back to a condition that resembles parity. Eventually I will get there, but it is just going to take time.

I have a great amount of respect for M60 to continue this game. I am suspecting it will follow the Stef/Stelteck game.
However, there are some differences. For example, during the 1st winter I spent a lot of TO&E to impede the Soviet winter offense. That will never recover as the weekly casualties equal the weekly available manpower. Now as the complete commander I have choice words for the old AGC commander who has spent a lot for little gain.

M60 started turn 55 with a bunch of units surrounded near Rostov. The prior Soviet commander stacked forces on the Don without depth. Once the Don was breached it was "Katy bar the door". I think it might have been better on turn 53 (pre-M60 having total command) to have had depth at a cost of a higher probability that Don would be breached but isolation less likely. That said, M60 took over an impossible situation that he is making lemonade out of lemons.

M60 has built a line of Guards at fort level 3 behind rivers that has 3 very significant problems for the Germans:

1. The CV (non-alt) is so great that even at 3 hex junctions infantry and hvy artillery find it difficult to break. In one case elite infantry and Nebelweffers got a 2.06:1 at a high cost in devices. I spent all my armor MP's to clear out a very small salient.

2. Armor can get enough CV to move a stack of Guards units, but the costs in disruption, and MP's means that the adjusted CV is not better than the Infantry.

3. In the center There are multiple rivers to cross where the Soviets can build these "walls of Guards"

M60 speaks of "fatal" but from my perspective it is more a setback for the Soviets. The Soviets took my Gambit at the Oka river (I had very weak forces on the Para river Oka river junction) and used some good units to smash weak Germans. In response the Germans isolated the attack. The problem was that the Guards units blocking did not have good fort levels or position so in some cases I could Hasty attack at at excellent initial CV levels supported by SU's (HQ had not moved) that pretty much in my mind was a duplicate of the real life Second Battle of Kharkov. However, the price of this Gambit was 2 weeks of Soviet digging on the Tsna and soon river lines even further back.

M60 has a pretty good thrust at weak Germans near Tambov. It is a game of chicken to see who blinks first. I am continuing my armor thrust elsewhere while M60 continues to pressure a key rail junction and Tambov. At some point the Germans are going to run out of units with enough TO&E to move Soviet units. When that is reached offenses like at Tambov will turn into an armored defense in depth and the Germans will be retreating back to Berlin.

There was a turn of mud that delayed strategic air missions, and the Germans are taking some fair losses in the air at this point. One reason for clearing out the west bank of the Tsna is positioning staging bases to strike at Gorky. I do not have any idea of the effects of the campaign strategically. Except that the Germans will continue a strategic air campaign as long as possible.

The great thing is that we will have another AAR that goes to the end that players can take notes for their next game. Not just another game that ends early to late '42. I wished Sillyflower would have continued his game vs BrainG as we would have learned a lot about how far the Soviets can come back.

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: xhoel

ORIGINAL: Telemecus

ORIGINAL: xhoel
Nice land grab. Do the Soviets have any units whatsoever in the Caucasus? They are looking strong in front of Tambov. You should watch your lines held only by Rumanians/Axis Allies.

The lack of any forces in the Caucasus was noticeble during the team game. The usual vista elsewhere was lines of Soviet units digging in along rear river lines - but down there nothing. I imagine the Soviet side will say it is about prioritisation. But if the Axis are not simply going to walk into Baku you will need some forces to stop them - probably at the extremes of their supply lines. And if you are going to have some forces in the Caucasus, why not now to act as a slowing down trip wire? The West Caucasus have over 40 manpower centres alone so it will hurt. Even a couple of cavalry brigades setting up traps even if picked up would make the Axis advance a cautious slower one.

My thoughts exactly.

There are still minor rivers and big cities in the region so I do not understand why the Soviet player would give all of this away for free. Some weak armies deployed in the area with the intent of slowing the Germans down would be a good idea even if in the end they get destroyed in the process. As it is, the whole Caucasus is being taken by 2-3 Panzer Corps if I'm seeing it correctly. That kind of a force would never make such huge gains if it encountered proper resistance however meager that might be. The Germans just advanced 100 miles in 1 week and have taken major cities that are important for the manpower of the Soviet Army.

Manpower right now is 5.5M. So as M60 states in other words "Who defends everything defends nothing!". Of course the Germans are taking what the Soviets give them ...and are fighting for strategic hexes elsewhere ...

[Crackaces]

Ground Bombing:

I might post that ground bombing has 3 really good actions and a few adverse actions.

1. Ground bombing causes disruption which converts to fatigue. This reduces the target's CV.
2. Ground bombing can raise detection levels. This turn (61) hexes with detection level 4 went up to 6 and I got an idea that "normal" units were actually Guards units.
3. It gives a pretty good picture of the SU's in the area.

Know that no amount of successful ground bombing will cause enough damage for a victory and very much likely will cause a loss accumulate to the air commander. Enough of these losses and it could result in replacement or execution of a commander with great values.

I have ground bombed with little results and a lot of lost bombers in a flak nest learning about the SU's in the area <smile>. That cut down on available aircraft for the actually ground support phase.

But in general every target hex gets 2 shots of ground bombing before the actual attack.

[Telemecus]

I have a lot of sympathy with what M60A3TTS says. Even if, at some point in the future, you can say the Soviet side rebounds that does not help you a lot right now. So making big bold prioritisations rather than salami slicing forces everywhere is probably right - but still scarey to look at.

I guess the choice put by Crackaces is Tambov or Caucasus? And if stripping Tambov only slightly to help the Caucasus would lead to losing both you may as well choose to defend just one instead. My thoughts at the moment though were that relatively few Soviet forces, a picket line of cavalry say, would mean any Axis advance into the Caucasus would need many more units committed to avoid having supplies cut off or being walked around. That in turn would mean disproportionately fewer Axis forces at Tambov. Unless this is a decision to completely abandon Baku though, if the Soviet side does intend to defend Baku they would also like to delay when they need to move more troops to the area to do it. At least from what I am reading the answer seems to be there are literally not even those small amounts of forces that can be diverted without catastrophic consequences elsewhere?

One thing I did notice during the team game was that industry was being evacuated from places like Grozny long ago (see post 967 of this AAR). So I was taking it that the decision to leave the Caucasus little defended was deliberate and intentional - it is not a mistake or through lack of thought. Depending on what turn you are up to I suspect there is a Soviet masterplan still waiting to be revealed that will explain all.

[xhoel]

@M60: Nice to hear your thoughts on the matter M60. It is quite nice to have both sides give their views of the situation. We as the readers only have a superficial idea of what is happening and it goes without saying that both you and Aces as commanders are aware of things that we aren't. I have a lot of respect for you for continuing this game even though the situation is quite bad for the Soviets. I understand that you have chosen to use a strategy that you deem the best considering the situation you are in. I just want to ask (if this doesn't give away any secret plans): Will you defend Baku and what is left of the Caucasus or have you written that off?

@Aces: The Germans cannot properly recover after a strong winter offensive, not unless they completely drain their manpower reserves. I think it is best to get used to what you have, keep good divisions on high TOEs to get the most out of it. The Guard defense lines do look quite formidable indeed. Don't forget that fort level 3 counts as dense terrain so AFVs perform much worse in it.

I agree very much with that saying and I used that way of thinking when defending during the Soviet offensive to good result.

Your AAR won't be the only one reaching 1945 [;)] I look forward to another update and more discussion on the matter.

Good luck to the both of you!

[M60A3TTS]

Yes, I will defend Baku. Whether I can hold it or not is anyone's guess since we saw thedude357 take down Sevastopol with a Level 5 fort in one go.

As HardLuck pointed out in another thread, it isn't a question so much as to whether the Axis can take the Caucasus, but rather how long they can hold it. We have eight weeks of clear weather left in 1942. Barring a total collapse of the Red Army that while still possible is not likely, eventually that land will be recovered. The industry was intentionally stripped bare long ago. So to commit a couple fronts worth of troops down there to stop him with my limited manpower is simply not a smart play. I do know that the whole of the 1st Panzer Army is east of Stalingrad. After taking Rostov and doing his land grab, 1st Panzer Army came back to the northeast. So if he is going to use mobile units still in the Caucasus, they will have to be the minor Axis allies.

[DeletedUser1769703214]

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

That cut down on available aircraft for the actually ground support phase.

If this is the case then this tells me that you have your "ground support" and your "ground bombing" units set up incorrectly.

[DeletedUser1769703214]

ORIGINAL: M60A3TTS

I was watching some video clips on YouTube from the movie Moneyball and it draws some parallels with comments I see here. Some of you are acting as though it is business as usual for the Soviet side and it is anything but. The loss of Moscow has a huge ripple effect in terms of manpower. Of course I would defend the Caucasus if I had the manpower, but I do not, so I defend what I can. Soviet National Morale as of right now is 46 which means if Crackaces wants to go somewhere, he can. The best I can do right now is get in his way and slow him down. Even that entails risk and the price of guessing wrong even a few times can be fatal. The same thing goes for the air forces. So much was lost in the early going that without simply disappearing for 4-6 months, it is a steep hill to climb in getting back to a condition that resembles parity. Eventually I will get there, but it is just going to take time.

I concur with your sentiments here M60. You just have to play the "rock" and let his waves hit you over and over again. The only place I would consider an offense is in the Air. You are retiring the bombers soon enough why not get use out of them.