Forlorn Hopes: John III vs. Canoerebel

Post descriptions of your brilliant successes and unfortunate demises.

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Canoerebel
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B-29s hit Takamatsu, Japan

Post by Canoerebel »

9/29/44
 
Japan:  Only two of three elements assigned to hit Takamatsu made it.  P-47Ds flew a sweep from Tori Shima, shot down three lonley Jakes, and returned home.  The six B-29 groups from Shikuka stayed home, but the four from Changsha came in and scored well.  Three were targeted on resources - 180 (121) and 451 (150) after the raid.  I'll give the Shikuka groups another chance tomorrow.
 
Operation Shooting Star:  This has my full attention now, and it seems that John realizes something big is up.  A week ago, the Japs had the following units dispersion - Canton with 9, Hong Kong 2, Swatow 2.  Now it's Canton 6, Hong Kong 4, Swatow 4.  I don't want to face reinforcements, but I don't think John can effectively reinforce now.  The Allies have too much LBA, plus the RN combat ships soon to arrive.   4900 AV advanced to the hex between Wuchow and Canton with lots more to come.  The transports destined to bring troops to Hong Kong are just off the coast from Camranh Bay.  Over at Singyang, the first Allied troops arrived and bombarded, finding two mixed brigades and a smaller unit.  More Jap units seem to be on the way from Ichang, so John's feeling some pressure here too.  Beginning in just a couple of days, China will really be cooking.
 
American Carriers and Troops:  The American component of Shooting Star is closing on Iwo from the NE.  As best I can tell, the Japs still don't know they're coming as no recon has sighted the ships.
 
DEI:  A large Allied raid on Batavia knocked out 34 oil and 5 resources.  John is reinforcing his Mundok garrison by barge.
 
Score:  (A) 72,840 (J) 56,416; Ratio:  1.29 to 1; Strategic Points:  12,732.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: B-29s hit Takamatsu, Japan

Post by paullus99 »

You've built up some real momentum here - keep it up. Don't give John any breathing space once you've committed - you can really chew him up.

I was thinking - with the number of carriers you have, what about a grand tour of Japan's airbases? I seriously doubt he'll be able to deal with a 1000 F6Fs & assorted other fighters - you could permanently cripple Homeland defense in one stroke.

Just an idea, unless you decide to go ahead & committ to a massive invasion right off the bat.
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RE: B-29s hit Takamatsu, Japan

Post by Canoerebel »

Shhh, be vewy, vewy quiet.  The thought of combined carrier-strike aircraft, B-17s, B-24s, and B-29s hitting Tokyo, Gumma, Osaka, etc., has crossed my mind...
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Gyrations

Post by Canoerebel »

9/30/44
 
Jap recon sighted American carriers, Jap troops are on the move all over China, and things should soon get interesting.  The big unkown:  does John want Hong Kong bad enough that he's willing to commit everything to it's defense?

China:  John pulled back to Canton two of the units he had just sent from there to Hong Kong.  Canton has eight, Hong Kong 3.  He's reacting to the advance of the Allied army from Wuchow on Canton.  This force is 6,000 AV with much more trailing as far back as northern Indochina.  Canton is urban and will be tough, but he's also got to worry about Hong Kong.  The Allies have an army of 3100 AV 80% prepped for HK sitting at Haiphong, with more on the way.  I can't carry all of that in one load, but I can in two or perhaps three.  The RN is present with three BBs and John can't match that.  So, what does he do?  To the north, at Singyang, the Allies have 2200 AV and the Japs perhaps 600 with more on the way.  I'll try a probing deliberate attack tomorrow, but it has little chance of success (but creates a hot spot that John needs to attend to).  Kiungshan at the north tip of Hainan Island is 72% to level 2 and will achieve that tomorrow or the next day.

Japan:  204 B-29s from Shikuka hit Takamatsu's resources and heavy industry, following on yesteday's raid from Changsha.  Tak's resources and HI now look like this:  Res 113 (188); HI 391 (210).

CenPac:  Jap recon caught wind of the Allied fleet approaching Iwo.  One Emily reported CVL Bataan, so John knows this is the real thing.  Things remain quiet at other forward Allied bases like Eniwetok, Ponape, Baker, and Johnston.

SWPac:  The ANZAC folks are still waiting to see if the KB will sortie against the Allied carriers; if so, several operations are ready to go.

Allied Reading of Japanese Intentions and Capabilities:  I feel unusually uncertain about where the Japs are and what they will do now.  The KB is still missing in action.  Is John misreading Allied intentions so that he thinks DEI is still in peril and the "real" target?   Of does his think China and/or the American carriers are the real threats, so that the KB is heading that way?  I truly don't know, but fortunately feel that both the American contingent and the British/Chinese contingent and position are strong enough to proceed in the absence of good intel (in the real war, by late '44, I doubt the Allies would have been so totally clueless, but that describes me).

Points:  (A) 73,300 (J) 56,459; Ratio:  1.30 to 1; Strategic:  12,974.  In late '43 and early '44, the Allies were gaining on the Japs at a rate of 2,000 points per month; that increased to 3,000 per month in mid '44; since the Allies drew even in late June and went ahead, their lead has grown at about 5,500 points per month.  This is partly due to taking high value bases like Noumea, Singapore, and Saigon.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: Gyrations

Post by castor troy »

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

9/30/44
 
Jap recon sighted American carriers, Jap troops are on the move all over China, and things should soon get interesting.  The big unkown:  does John want Hong Kong bad enough that he's willing to commit everything to it's defense?

China:  John pulled back to Canton two of the units he had just sent from there to Hong Kong.  Canton has eight, Hong Kong 3.  He's reacting to the advance of the Allied army from Wuchow on Canton.  This force is 6,000 AV with much more trailing as far back as northern Indochina.  Canton is urban and will be tough, but he's also got to worry about Hong Kong.  The Allies have an army of 3100 AV 80% prepped for HK sitting at Haiphong, with more on the way.  I can't carry all of that in one load, but I can in two or perhaps three.  The RN is present with three BBs and John can't match that.  So, what does he do?  To the north, at Singyang, the Allies have 2200 AV and the Japs perhaps 600 with more on the way.  I'll try a probing deliberate attack tomorrow, but it has little chance of success (but creates a hot spot that John needs to attend to).  Kiungshan at the north tip of Hainan Island is 72% to level 2 and will achieve that tomorrow or the next day.

Japan:  204 B-29s from Shikuka hit Takamatsu's resources and heavy industry, following on yesteday's raid from Changsha.  Tak's resources and HI now look like this:  Res 113 (188); HI 391 (210).

CenPac:  Jap recon caught wind of the Allied fleet approaching Iwo.  One Emily reported CVL Bataan, so John knows this is the real thing.  Things remain quiet at other forward Allied bases like Eniwetok, Ponape, Baker, and Johnston.

SWPac:  The ANZAC folks are still waiting to see if the KB will sortie against the Allied carriers; if so, several operations are ready to go.

Allied Reading of Japanese Intentions and Capabilities:  I feel unusually uncertain about where the Japs are and what they will do now.  The KB is still missing in action.  Is John misreading Allied intentions so that he thinks DEI is still in peril and the "real" target?   Of does his think China and/or the American carriers are the real threats, so that the KB is heading that way?  I truly don't know, but fortunately feel that both the American contingent and the British/Chinese contingent and position are strong enough to proceed in the absence of good intel (in the real war, by late '44, I doubt the Allies would have been so totally clueless, but that describes me).

Points:  (A) 73,300 (J) 56,459; Ratio:  1.30 to 1; Strategic:  12,974.  In late '43 and early '44, the Allies were gaining on the Japs at a rate of 2,000 points per month; that increased to 3,000 per month in mid '44; since the Allies drew even in late June and went ahead, their lead has grown at about 5,500 points per month.  This is partly due to taking high value bases like Noumea, Singapore, and Saigon.


is Canton an urban hex in this mod? If so, then 1500-2000 av could easily hold against 6000 attacker av, not even to think about forts... and if you land at HongKong and don´t take the base quickly I guess he could move his units there within two days...


edit: sorry, missed that you´ve already mentioned Canton being urban... [>:]
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RE: Gyrations

Post by Canoerebel »

I'll soon have 8,000 AV at Canton, and probably 3,500 to 4,000 at Hong Kong.  The Allies also have the RN and control of the skies, with a heck of alot of bombers nearby.  Canton is pretty worthless once I take Hong Kong, and Hong Kong is my real objective.
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RE: Gyrations

Post by Canoerebel »

10/1/44 and 10/2/44
 
Operation Shooting Star begins in earnest tonight.
 
Hong Kong:  The RN bombardment TF with two BBs will hit Hong Kong tonight, covered by LRCAP from Kuingshan (just went to level two), Pakhoi, and Wuchow.  The transport TFs will remain one hex outside Hong Kong to see what the mine situation looks like.  The carrier TF (three CVEs and CVL Hermes) will take refuge near Haiphong just to stay out of harm's way should things heat up - they aren't needed if the KB doesn't appear, and they would be overwhelmed if it does.  The troops on the transport are prepped for Swatow, while the Hong Kong-prepped troops are at Haiphong.  I chose speed and surprise over preparation.  I intend to land this first group and head back to Haiphong for the others.  But events will begin to dictate what happens from here on.
 
China:  The Allied probing attack at Sinyang on the 1st proved that this little Chinese army won't take this base unless the Japs get cold feet and withdraw.  Although outnumbering the Japs 2300 AV to about 650 AV, the attack came off at 0:1 and didn't touch the nine forts.  The main body of the army moving on Canton should arrive there tomorrow, a nice compliment to the Hong Kong bombardment.  John doesn't have any strike aircraft at HK, Canton, or Swatow (primarily because the first two have been hammered lately by Allied bombers).  I think his closest bombers are on Formosa.
 
Japan:  The Japanese tried an ill-advised attack on Tori Shima.  Two waves of bombers and fighters got eaten alive by the CAP of 18 Corsairs and 72 P-47Ds.  The Japs lost 150 aircraft (including 81 Frank) to 34 Allied fighters.
 
CenPac:  The American carriers and transports are steaming slowly SW toward Iwo and will near that island in about two days.  I don't know whether they'll halt there momentarily or continue on toward Formosa to serve as a diversion for the Brits at Hong Kong.
 
SWPac:  Playing a hunch that John will move the KB either to strike those Brits or the Americans, the Aussies and Kiwis are getting into the act shortly.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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China Gyrations

Post by Canoerebel »

10/3/44
 
Hong Kong:  Off to a good start, but holding my breath since my RN combat ships are very much in harm's way.  The bombardment force came in on the night of the 2nd/3rd, inflicted 500 casualties, destroyed 17 guns, and sank three ships.  LRCAP over the TF intercepted plenty of Tinas and other transports probably bringing in reinforcements (the first sign that John is really scrambling to handle things in China).  A scattering of small Jap raids tried for the transports off the coast of Hong Kong, coming from Formosa and Aparri, and John lost about 20 aircraft in return for a hit on one AP.  There are no mines at HK.  The transports come in tonight, the RN combat ships remain in place, I've strengthened the CAP a bit, and I'm hoping the KB doesn't show up for at least a few days.

China:  All heck has broken loose as John has units all over the place.  He's sending troops from Swatow toward Canton; he's reinforced Singyang from Ichang, and other units are on interior roads in many places.  The move on Singyang was meant to draw John's attention and to threaten Ichang's flank.  I think it worked.  Recon shows Ichang empty with the units a road to the east heading either toward Singyang or evacuating.  Tomorrow, 50th Indian paratroops arrive at a base in SE China, so I've moved Dakotas there.  If Ichang remains empty tomorrow, I'll try a para-assault the next day, to be followed by air transport of an Indian division into the city.  It would be awfully sweet to pick up the city by flanking, because I certainly wasn't going to get it any other way (at least any time soon).  At Canton, an advance 1900 AV has arrived with alot more to follow tomorrow.   I don't have a chance of taking this city in the short term unless I first take HK on unless John divides his army to meet multiple threats.  About 300 Allied bombers hit the airfield at Swatow just to make sure it remains empty.  The threat of the KB is enough; I don't want to face close-range LBA too.  (I'd say the Allies achieved strategic surprise in China; it's fun to watch the Japanese scramble to defend).

Japan: The Allies will try a big raid on Tokyo tomorrow, if everybody flies as scheduled. 

CenPac:  The American carriers and other ships continue on their approach to Iwo.

SWPac:  Where John recently had a big air presence in the Solomons, there isn't a plane in sight now (I think John had been contemplating a major battle in this region).  There haven't even been any recon flights from Port Moresby, Rabaul, Lunga, or Luganville in several weeks.  I think the Japs have focused their attention elsewhere, so I'm going to try a surprise invasion.   I've had a fairly strong ANZAC amphibious group slowly approaching Port Moresby to feel things out.  I don't think the Japs are aware of these TFs and they are to begin landing tomorrow.  This will be Operation Mercury.

SEAC:  Allied bombers continue to paste Palembang; the Japs have reinforced Mundok and will boot out the small American unit shortly.  I'll probably be back in numbers "one of these days" - not too long if the Allies are successful in taking Hong Kong, Canton, and Swatow.

Edited to Add: P.S. Jap recon picked up 2nd UK Division four hexes west of Canton; if John hadn't been sure this was the real thing yet, that probably cemented things.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: Gyrations

Post by FOW »

You have stated your main target is Hong Kong.
As I see it you don't need the 12k+ AV needed to take Canton. Put enough units in Canton to keep his attention, the urban bonus works for you too. You need to take H-K ASAP - once you do John won't be able to move units from Canton to H-K - if you don't he can move, say a Div, and prolong things (i'm sure there are level 9 forts everywhere by now). With H-K Allied and a drive on Swatow, John will face the prospect of his army in Canton being isolated.
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RE: Gyrations

Post by Canoerebel »

Yeah, that's the plan. 
 
John should be worried because he'll have a tough time reinforcing SE China by sea (the Allies have too much LBA), and interior movements take time due to the bad road network.   So I'm hoping the simultaneous attacks will prod John into making a bad move somewhere or other.  I think Ichang is the first.  But Hong Kong is the real key to this campaign.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: Gyrations

Post by Canoerebel »

P.S.  IF the KB showed up en masse, John could destroy the RN combat TF at Hong Kong - the LRCAP would be brushed aside easily.  I've really fretted over this possibility, but there are a few things that give me a measure of peace about this (and you may get a chuckle over how even insignificant things can become intel to be considered):  
 
1.  First and foremost, John may be reluctant to come close enough to strike for fear of the Allied LBA in China.  That's the only real deterent at the moment, and were that all I was counting on I'd be very nervous.
 
2.  John sent an email with last night's turn grumbling about how and attack he had planned had gone awry.  Were he about to spring a trap on the RN, I don't think he would have referred to it casually.
 
3.  John's had the current turn since early this morning and has been in the forums for awhile posting in several AARs.  Had he been about to spring something big, he'd be chomping at the bit to run the turn.  That he's dallying a bit suggests that he doesn't have anything big about to happen.
 
Mind you, I realize I could be misreading the signs, or John could be intentionally misleading me, but I have a pretty strong hunch that the KB isn't going to strike tomorrow.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: Gyrations

Post by Canoerebel »

Quick note as I have to run some errands.  10/4/44 was a great day for the Allies:
 
1)  Massive and highly successful raid on Tokyo
2)  Landings at Hong Kong go smoothly
3)  Landings at Port Moresby go smoothly except a CD tears up some transports
 
As I sent the turn back to John these things dominated my thoughts:
 
1)  My greatest fear is the KB showing up near Hong Kong.  If it's going to happen to stop the invasion, tomorrow is probably the last day. 
2)  A Jap TF with a "CA" is moving west from Formosa on a heading for HK.  The KB?  A stout combat TF?  A decoy?  I don't know and it has me worried.
3)  Ichang is open and 50th Indian paratroops will hit there tomorrow.  Taking Ichang and reinforcing via air transport in big numbers would be a tremendous beginning to Operation Shooting Star.  I think it would really rattle John's confidence about his situation in China.  (50th Indian has really been a unit of distinction in this game, having take the following cities by air assault:  Kompong Song (Indochina), Kiangshan (Hainan Island, China), and hopefully Ichang.  These cities have been vacant to this point, but their seizures have really given the Allies important objectives.
 
I'll be holding my breath when the next turn comes to me from John.  I hate it when he yells, "Banzai!" at my expense.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: Gyrations

Post by Canoerebel »

10/4/44 and 10/5/44

Operation Shooting Star is off to a blazing start, and Tokyo is blazing.

Hong Kong: The landings at Hong Kong have been unopposed - no Jap naval presence and minimal air presence. The Chinese troops have gone ashore with next to no disruption or fatigue because the port has no guns to speak of. The garrison is 59th Division and a few other units of little worth in battle. The RN hit the city again on the 4th and bombers in numbers strike each day. The Allies have 800 well-supplied AV ashore (though unfortunately they are 80% prepped for Swatow). Tomorrow, another bombardment and all bombers in China and northern Vietnam are to hit the enemy ground troops. There is some possibility that the Jap units in Hong Kong have been roughed up by the bombardments and repeated bombings. The Allies will try a shock attack tomorrow. All transports that have finished unloading troops have been ordered to return to Haiphong to pick up the second wave. (Question: with Allied troops at both Canton and Hong Kong, does that prevent John from moving units from the latter to the former? If so, Hong Kong will fall pretty soon.)

Canton: 4,000 AV have arrived with another 2,000 closely following, and more behind that. It's enough to stalemate things in Canton while I deal with HK.

Ichang: 50th Indian paratroops took this vacant base on the 5th, wiping out nine forts. Two Chinese units heading for Nanchang are in the hex where the transports are based, so I've halted them, switched their prep to Ichang, and will begin transporting tomorrow. Ichang isn't that important in and of itself, but I think it fans the flames of Jap panic in China as things appear to be going crazy.

Japan: A massive, well-coordinated raid on Tokyo on the 4th. First, 74 P-47Ds from Tori Shima faced 109 Frank, 27 George, and 45 Jack, the Allies losing 20 and the Japs 112. Next came 16 P-47D and 59 P-38 from Iwo Jima facing 59 Jap fighters, the Allies losing 3 and the Japs 45. Then came 147 B-24 and 21 B-17 from Toyohara, followed by 233 B-29s from Shikuka. There was little CAP and just one or two bombers went down. The bombers targeted Tokyo's airfield (destroying 25 aircraft on the ground); Okha factory, now 2 (8), Frank factories, now 7 (32) and 2 (77), Jack factory, now 16 (41), and Resources, now 307 (564).

CenPac: The American carriers have just passed Iwo and are moving into the Philippine Sea to serve as a decoy to hopefully keep the enemry from focusing on the Hong Kong forces. I don't know how far they'll go, yet.

SWPac: Landings commenced at Port Moresby, which wasn't mined. No appearance by Jap ships or aircraft, but a CD gun has mauled some MSWs and a few transports. The Aussies are ashore in good numbers, with about 800 AV thus far to about 300 for the Japs. The garrison is 1st Mixed Brigade, 8th NLF (very small), the CD, and a base force. The Aussies brought two divisions, a cav division, artillery, armor and an HQ (all 100% prepped for PM). I don't know if it's enough, but I'll see soon.

KB: Still absolutely no sign of Jap carriers. John is doing a masterful job of hiding them, but he's got to commit soon/now, doesn't he? The Tokyo raid serves as another reminder that the Japs simply have to do whatever it takes to knock out Iwo or re-capture Sikhalin Island. He should have done it from the get-go. He should've done it awhile ago. He should do it now. So where's the KB? (Not that I want them to show up and interfere with these nice Allied opportunites).

As of the 4th, Points: (A) 74,019 (J) 56,538; Ratio: 1.31 to 1; Strategic Points: 13,148.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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Zoiks, Scoob!

Post by Canoerebel »

(Those of you following my AAR know that I only have the game loaded on my work computer; therefore, when John sends a new turn late in the evening, I can only read the combat report without seeing the replay or viewing the game file; sometimes this leaves me a bit in the dark as to what actually happened, as now...)

Email Message from John the curdled my blood: "Weeeeee....still have some fangs...
I cannot believe that you moved away from Iwo Jima with the US CV TF. Guess it is time...BANZAI baby!"

Zoiks, I figured he had somehow done something bad to the American carriers, so I opened the combat report with fear and trembling, to discover this:

1. The Allied bombardment fleet that was to hit Hong Kong somehow didn't make it and thus fell outside the LRCAP protection afforded there. Jap kamikazes and torpedo bombers sortied in numbers, putting five torpedos and 11 kamikazes into BB Howe; I assume she's toast. There were also scattered torpedo hits against several CLs and CAs, plus a few transports.

2. This will probably embolden John to further action.

3. The American carriers launched a sea of strike aircraft against four lonely Jap APs; I think John orchestrated this on purpose, and had the KB chosen this turn to strike I'd be pretty ticked off. As it is, I'll evaluate this more carefully tomorrow morning, because it looks like I won't need the Americans after all...

4. Because Hong Kong is going to fall tomorrow. Here was the result of the attack (which followed some huge raids by bombers):

Ground combat at Hong Kong

Allied Shock attack

Attacking force 34721 troops, 81 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 971

Defending force 13781 troops, 88 guns, 1 vehicles, Assault Value = 247

Allied max assault: 1418 - adjusted assault: 1002

Japanese max defense: 154 - adjusted defense: 265

Allied assault odds: 3 to 1 (fort level 3)

Allied Assault reduces fortifications to 0

Japanese ground losses:
136 casualties reported
Guns lost 3

Allied ground losses:
596 casualties reported
Guns lost 14


5. I would've accepted the loss of the entire RN combat TF to take Hong Kong as that base holds the key to future Allied operations and threatens to isolate most of Jap troops in southeastern China. John must be fit to be tied. So that vast army at Haiphong that's almost 100% prepped for Hong Kong can be turned on other cities now. Once Hong Kong falls, the next move will be on Swatow.

6. John's email ticked me off for several reason. First, the boasting he has done throughtout the game each time the Japs accomplish something to his satisfaction; I've bent over backwards to leave out any hint of bragadocio in my emails to him, but still he does it. Secondly, early in the game I asked him not to discuss the events of the current turn in his email as I preferred to find out - good or bad - by viewing the replay. I've had to remind him several dozen times because he has some innate need to gloat. None of my polite reminders seems to have "taken." Now, that said, John and I are almost like brothers now, and this game has all the makings of a great brotherly rivalry. So although he pisses me off, dadgum it I like the guy.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: Zoiks, Scoob!

Post by String »

If you're going to take Hong Kong this turn... it has a shipyard iirc and that might save Howe if you can keep her afloat for another turn. I suggest chaning the whole TF to escort TF so it doesn't fall apart and do the "return to base" nonsense, although setting the home base to somewhere in northern japan/aleutians might help as the route there will take them through Hong Kong.
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RE: Zoiks, Scoob!

Post by Canoerebel »

10/6/44
 
Hong Kong:  Hong Kong will fall tomorrow unless John is able to move reinforcements in from Canton, which I don't think he can due to the ZOC rules.  The successful Allied ground attack was preceded by two large bombing raids that inflicted 522/16 and 56/1 on the single Jap division.  The disruption undoubtedly contributed to the weak defense.  The RN bombardment TF didn't quite make it to HK and thus fell outside the LRCAP umbrella (a single Mosquito squadron offered the only protection) and Jap kamikazes and torpedo planes sortied from Aparri, Philippines and Amoy, China.  Although BB Howe was hit by five torpedos and 11 kamikazes, she's still afloat with 43 SYS, 94 FLT, and 42 Fires.   Had Hong Kong fallen yesterday, she'd probably survive, but I don't know if she can wait another day.  I have several base forces ready to move to HK by air transport.  John has loaded up the airfields (Swatow, Amoy, Taiching, etc.) in hopes of repeating today's success; I've detailed some 4EB to "carress" these fields - I don't think I need all of them targeting HK tomorrow.  The American carriers were coming this way to lend a hand if necessary, but since it isn't, they and the transports will return to Iwo, unload, and the troops will rest and reorganize to prepare for the next step. 
 
China:  The Allies began air transporting a Chinese infantry unit into newly captured Ichang.  Three Jap units of unknown size are trapped between Ichang and the river to the south.  I want to reinforce Ichang as quickly as possible, because these Jap units were probably already headed this way before the city fell. 
 
Strategic Implications:  From John's perspective things must look awfully grim, and with the fall of Hainan Island and Ichang and the imminent fall of Hong Kong, Operation Shooting Star is off to a fabulous start.  The fall of HK puts the Allies far ahead of schedule.  John will be worried about armies at Canton and Singyang getting cut off, and he'll probably try to reinforce coastal China.  The Allies will keep moving fast - the transports are on the way back to Haiphong and I'll try to hit Swatow within a week to ten days.  HK gives the Allies a big airfield (currently four, but she'll go to seven) and port right where they're needed to permit operations up the China coast and, hopefully, Formosa.  I "think" John will want to fight for China, I know he must be a little panicked, and I think he realizes now that China is the focal point of Allied intentions, not the DEI.  So I "assume" he'll send the KB this way.
 
Jap Carriers:  No sign of them.  Not the slightest indication of their location.  John's doing a great job of hiding them, and they are an important force in being that worries me constantly, but Singapore has fallen, Hong Kong is about to fall, and Allied aircraft on Iwo and Sikhalin Island are chewing up Japan.  It's time he tried to save the empire.
 
SWPac:  The landings at Port Moresby are nearly finished.  The Allies will try a probing attack day after tomorrow.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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paullus99
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RE: Zoiks, Scoob!

Post by paullus99 »

I have serious doubts as to John's wanting to launch an attack into the teeth of your airpower. What would happen if he committed his carriers in the South China Sea? How many bombers & fighters could you send after him the moment he shows himself (either here or up north)? He'd last all of about 3 days before you sent every ship to the bottom - regardless of the number of losses he would inflict in that time.

Never Underestimate the Power of a Small Tactical Nuclear Weapon...
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Canoerebel
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RE: Zoiks, Scoob!

Post by Canoerebel »

Here's John's most recent email message this a.m.:
 
"I REALLY want to run this turn but [have some family matters for the morning].  Will be home for afternoon and we can get them done as fast as possible.  Perhaps we'll settle the final question as to who truly owns the Pacific..."
 
Hmmm, sounds like the KB is about to spring into action.
 
But, as noted previously, I've pulled my carriers back to Iwo since they aren't needed to cover Hong Kong.  So I don't know if the turn will come off as John anticipates.
 
John's message suggests, however, that the KB is in the area and that he is itching for a fight.  This was an important security breach on his part (or perhaps clever disinformation; but instinct tells me it's the real thing).
 

 
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: Zoiks, Scoob!

Post by Canoerebel »

Well, no massive battle ensued, but Hong Kong fell to the Allies...
 
My email message to John in reply to his above: "Okay, where's the battle that was going to decide who controls the Pacific?"
 
His reply:  "It is at a time and place of MY choosing.  Your recon sucked last turn.  I knew you would retreat to the LBA though.  You have 8--3--1  high performance Fighters on CAP and you still retreat to LBA...  Cannot believe I got the Howe!  Those 2E Kamikazes did good work.  The Torp Attack couldn't have gone much better.  Still wasn't sure if she would sink or not."
 
My response:  "My carriers returned to Iwo because they weren't needed at Hong Kong.  My combat TF was supposed to be under LRCAP at Hong Kong but failed to make it there; fortunes of war. 
 
"But the Allies are elated to have taken HK at this cost and were prepared for it to cost much, much more.  You're more than welcome to select the time and place.  The Emporer fiddles while the Empire crumbles. 

"Heading home for the evening.  Have a good night."
 
More later.


"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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vettim89
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RE: Zoiks, Scoob!

Post by vettim89 »

ORIGINAL: paullus99

I have serious doubts as to John's wanting to launch an attack into the teeth of your airpower. What would happen if he committed his carriers in the South China Sea? How many bombers & fighters could you send after him the moment he shows himself (either here or up north)? He'd last all of about 3 days before you sent every ship to the bottom - regardless of the number of losses he would inflict in that time.


You might want to take a gander at my AAR and see what happens when the IJN CV's take on 1943 levels of Allied LBA. I'll take 2000 lb bombs for the win please
"We have met the enemy and they are ours" - Commodore O.H. Perry
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