War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A)

[BBfanboy]

Lest you get too inspired by British ship names, just keep in mind that "Indestructable" isn't.[;)]

[Canoerebel]

4/27/42 and 4/28/42

India: Calcutta fell today. No sign of additional IJA divisions or major units in India.

China: Sian evacuated as the Chinese work to establish their new MLR to the rear. No major IJ moves in the Changsha sector yet, but I'm expecting something soon. Japan took the first base inside China from Burma, but the force coming may not be strong enough to get very far. I think I have enough down there to impede progress significantly.

North America: Quiet. The troops are at LA and standing down to combat mode. They'll go via amphibious TF. Originally, the plan was to go strategic, unload at Christmas, and reload combat. But Christmas is just a level two port, so that would take forever. The main targets are Tarawa, Abemama, Nauru and Ocean.

Pacific: Three army battalions are boarding ships at Hawaii. These little units will garrison Ndeni, Luganville and Efate.

Oz: This is what worries me.

The plan that worries me most now is that Steve will next devote six or eight or ten divisions to Oz to gain airfields from which to engage in points-rich strategic bombing campaign. There's not alot I can do to stop this, but 32nd US Div. is meant to serve as a reserve. I can also call on a number of American units that begin arriving at Capetown in the coming weeks. All fighters currently at Hawaii are going to Oz. Roughly ten USA AA units arriving at Capetown can go to either Oz or India, wherever the need seems greatest.

About India: I am concerend, but not greatly. The Allies already have vastly more units and supply than I did in my game with Q-Ball, and there I was facing 20 enemy divisions by late March, early April. Steve is moving slowly. Even if he brings everything soon, he's still way later than he should have been. It will be difficult for him to "go deep quick," since the Allies have stout garrisons at Socatra, Surat and Bhaumgardner (spelling?).

I think Steve wants to establish positions in China, North America, Oz and India from which he can generate some major victory points through Strat Boming (North America and Oz) and troop liquidation (China and maybe India). His risk is that he might be too slow in moving and too diluted to hold what he might take long term. Eventually, he''s going to have problems in India if he doesn't give it everything he's got.

[BBfanboy]

CR, it doesn't sound like you have a big shipping lane to Oz to worry about so I am unclear as to the strategy behind taking Tarawa et al in the SOPAC sector. You dent his perimeter a bit but you can't really threaten anything vital to Japan (like Rabaul) yet in this area. Is the idea just to interrupt his plans a little and hope he draws troops from elsewhere to garrison other islands in the area?

[Canoerebel]

4/29/42

China: It looks like Steve has pulled his main Sian-sector army back. He may be using interior lines to get them down to the Changsha or Chengtu sectors, both of which would be bad news for the Allies. An IJ para takes vacant Sian. The Chinese have started the withdrawal from Lanchow, with the goal of setting up a strong perimeter in the woods south of Sian, while some of the troops head further south and east to lend a hand with what will probably become another problem sector.

India: 27th/A and 27th/B USA Div. arrives at Bombay in two days.

North America: Quiet. Two more days until the "South Seas Expeditionary Force" begins loading on the amphibious TFs at Los Angeles.

[Canoerebel]

4/30/42

India: Quiet except for Allied troops coming in and getting posted. At this moment it does not seem that Steve intends to push inland from his current perimter.

China: Quiet at the moment. Not even vast waves of bombers these past few days. I think Steve is shifting a big army from the Sian sector down to the Changsha or Chengte sector. We'll see.

North America: The big amphibious forces begins loading at Los Angeles. This group will head south. If things heat up in Australia, they'll continue on there. If things look propitiuos, however, they'll strike Tarawa, Abemama, Tabituea and Ocean Islands. D-Day possibly about 15 to 20 days.

Oz: Quiet, but I have a hunch that is temporary.

[JocMeister]

A word of warning concerning China...again! [:D]

With Sian lost your supply situation will become even more dire. I still strongly believe that China is impossible to defend in its current state in Scenario 1 and 2 if the Jap player makes an effort. We are already seeing this in many AARs where the Jap player can steamroll China in under a year. This is a serious balance flaw that you unfortunately are stuck with!

I think you really need to consider how you will handle this. You will soon find yourself with more AV then supply. Without supply your AV is useless. I would start planning how to do an exodus to India with the whole Chinese army if the situation demands it. Once you loose Changsha and the oil from Lanchow its game over in China.

I think the only two options viable to you are to either withdraw to India or go all in from India and try to reopen supply.

[ny59giants]

China is a lot different if you are playing with stacking limits. However, if you were to compare Q-Ball's situation vs mine playing the same DBB mod, the situations are a lot different. We are less than 2 weeks behind and it is already a stalemate, IMO. The situation in India/Burma changes a lot when you have those limits.

[StK]

Subscribed

Even if I can't help you much with the postcount as I'm reading both (^^,).
(Although I don't know diddlysquat about the finer parts of the game yet and couldn't give advice anyway)

edit: Ahh I nearly forgot. Could you make some pictures of the situation in the different theatres. It would help newbies like me understand whats actually going on (^^,).

[Canoerebel]

5/1/42 and 5/2/42

StK, thanks. I'm glad you're reading. I posted a series of screen shots of China, India, and the Bay of Bengal over the past week or so of game time. Check back a few pages for turns since about 4/15/42 and you'll get the pictoral presentation.

India: Current deployment of Imperial Guards and other IJA divisions in NE India show no present expansion of the Japanese perimeter. The Allies are bringing forward infantry and armor, as I will explain below.

China: I'm nearly positive Steve is reconfiguring his army to achieve overwhelming odds at Changsha. I can't bring meaningful reinforcements in before his guys get there. Meanwhile, I'm not completely collapsing the Lanchow sector yet. I want to see if he's going to force the issue there short term. If not it might be worth holding for awhile.

North America: Big Zero sweep over Vancouver. I think the Allies came out ahead, at least in terms of pilots. In terms of airframes it was close to 1:1. I just don't think the Japanese can win an air war at this range. Steve just has to come for Coal Harbor, which means I need to get reinforcements there.

Pacific: The Gilberts invasion force departs Los Angeles tonight.

Oz: I think the KB is escorting an invasion force into the Perth sector. I'll concede that region. I'm also very glad to know the whereabouts of the KB.

The Nemo Factor: Nemo is a big fan of keeping an opponent off balance through a series of blows. I don't recall the name of that strategy, but its been interesting to see PzH employ it in the game. To this point I don't think this has been very successful, unless he actually tricked me into stripping Oz (to go to India's aid) when he actually intends ot move on Oz. More about that below.

Does She or Doesn't She (and obscure reference to an old hair-coloring commercial): Does Steve want me to commit my troops forward in India so that he can cut them off? I think so. But I also prefer for Steve to focus on India as opposed to Oz. Therefore, I am committing my army forward in India. I will begin to press Steve's perimeter. I will of course keep an careful eye on Bombay and Karachi, but with Socatra secure, I think it would be nearly impossible for Steve to make a full India move now.

Maskirovka? Steve sent a very interesting email late today. In essence, he said he's nearly at his high-water mark and about to transition over to the defensive. That would suit me just fine. Even if this was straightforward and not maskirovka, I think he'll still come for SW Oz (Perth) plus China. But if he pulls back in India and NE Oz that would be shocking to me. He's got his boot on my neck. I've got to fight hard against strangulation So, is he suddenly going to let off some of the pressure?

[BBfanboy]

I strongly doubt his stated intention to stop expanding. Giving up Perth is reasonable, but I would want to keep Port Augusta safe - it is the direct rail link to Alice Springs and the best way to get supplies up the central area. Unload a ship at Pt. Augusta and Alice Springs can build or pass on supplies to Tennant Creek.

I think the India entrenchment means he has the VPs he came for in Calcutta and he is going after more easy points before you can shift forces to stop him.
I don't know a Tarawa invasion would cause him to interrupt his plans but an Australian counterattack would start to reverse the strategic gains. Even better will be when you can take back some NOPAC bases. Now that your carriers no longer have to rely on Buffalos for defence, you have a chance to challenge him here and there.

Definitely a tense and unusual situation - I still think you can beat his scattergun strategy with limited defence while building up your counter-punch. Good Luck!

[Canoerebel]

5/3/42

Singapore: Fell today. This frees up seven IJA divisions to "do their thing." I'll soon know if Steve's email was maskirovka or genuine by where he deploys those units.

Victory Points/Auto Victory Meter: The fall of Singers results in a sizeable harvest of points for squads destroyed. At this point, the VP differential should be maxing out, though Steve can still shoot for points a variety of ways. Japan: 23,216; Allies - 7,712. Steve would have to have 4:1 at any point in 1943 to achieve auto victory. He'll pick up more points, especially in China and perhaps in SoPac. However, by the autumn of 1942, the Allies are usually in a position to begin to whittle at the differential pretty effectively.

India: 7th Marines just arrived at Capetown and will head to India (rather than Oz, though I can change that if a crisis develops).

China: Japan is uber bombing Chungking. An IJ para assault at Lanchow failed, because the Allies un-evacuated the city.

North America: Quiet. Steve is useing a Glen to recon Los Angeles. With occasional 1/0 detection levels, do you think that would give him ship totals in the port? IE, do you think he'd get sufficient info to detect the sudden reduction of shipping from 125 to about 10?

Gilberts: I like this operation more for what it gives me than what it takes from Steve. With the KB near Perth, and with two Allied CL TFs stationed just south of Tarawa for months now, I can configure my approach to Tarawa and vicinity such that a big ambush will be detected. IE, it should be safe to approach. The Allies will probably first land at Tabituea and Abemama, with a smaller scouting force landing at Tarawa. If the latter looks tough, I'll retire. If it looks promising, we'll go in and then try to extract 32nd Div. promptly.

KB: Near Exmouth. I think a Perth invasion is incoming.

[Cap Mandrake]

I wouldn't believe for a second that he would intentionally announce his switch to strategic defense.

He might contemplate such a thing in May of 42 but to announce it would be to give up many months of uncertainty for the Allies that would tend to keep Allied assets in reserve instead of on the attack.

Isnt this this a Scenario 2 game? Honestly, it's not really even plausible that he would want to go over to defense.

He probably told you that knowing that you will see through it and then, when he really does want to go over to defense and he tells you the same thing, you wont' believe him again and you will waste months waiting for more attacks which you will then be convinced are coming. [:D]

Of course, the second time could be a spoof too. Then you will absolutely be convinced that if he tires it a third time he would have to know you wouldn't possibly fall for it again so, more likely, he is actually planning to go over to defense the third time he says it adn he will be trying to goad you into premature attack....unless, of course, that is what he wants you to think that he thinks.

[Canoerebel]

I'll buy that.

[Cap Mandrake]

Sorry. I added a triple recursive double-dare maskirovka after your post. I doubt you will really fall for that and I meant no disrepect. [:)]

[Canoerebel]

None taken. I think there is considerable merit to your thoughts.

I have a weakness. I am pretty good at detecting threats here there and everywhere, but I can be pretty bad at figuring out which are real and which are chimera. However, I tend to recognize that weakness and I think I'm decent at prioritizing and allowing for many possibilities. All this means I am decent but not great at this game. And I'm okay with that.

[princep01]

Okay, maybe just decent at the game, though I'd say you're better than decent...but you are one heck of an AAR writer and I know many appreciate that talent.  Carry on, soldier Canoerebel.
 
My 2 pesos still stands about grabbing some of those N. Pacific high VP bases back in the fall, well before the winter ice closes the opportunity.

[BBfanboy]

Re: that 1/0 DL at LA - it will not tell him anything about ships in port. In my current game I have DLs of 3/7 on some enemy ports and although there is an anchor symbol representing ships in port, the mouseover says "Ships detected in port - 0".

[Q-Ball]

Couple things.

First, don't pay any attention to PzH's e-mail. It's psy-ops. He's good at that.

He understands the engine very well, and has played a very good tactical game as always.

I think he has made 2 very serious strategic errors, primarily around commmitment of surface troops in the SRA. He sent alot of men to Luzon, at the expense of Singapore. This is an error. Clearning Singapore in May of 1942 is bad, and sets the IJA timetable back. He can finally use those troops elsewhere, but it's late in the day to start a major invasion.

Luzon, on the other hand, is harmless. Why make extra effort to take it? It's easy enough when the supplies run out, there is no reason to overpower the large formations there, when they will wither and die if you are patient.

Singapore is a port you need immediately. Manila is a port you can live without, and is not at all critical.

This was an error on his part. This, and maybe that whole Alaska thing, which I think sucked up alot of resource in a sideshow

An extra 3-4 divisions in India, while it wouldn't have conquered it, would have caused you alot more problems, or could have cleared Ceylon

[paullus99]

I really like the move into the South Pacific at this point in the game - he's distracted with "spread-eagle" ventures across half the globe (from Alaska to India), and a move into some vitals (even if they are periphery vitals) could be a huge distraction & force him to commit the one resource he doesn't have an unlimited supply of - ships.

Plus, with working torpedoes - you can seed the line of advance that we would need to take & perhaps you'd start getting shots at his capital ships as he responds (he'll have to).

Good luck & stay committed!

[Canoerebel]

5/4/42

India: The main Allied carrier force will shortly put into Bombay to replenish, upgrade aircraft, etc. Small Allied armor units are beginning to close on the enemy perimiter to develop information about strength and position.

China: Tempoarily quiet as Japan continues to shift around in preparation for its next offensive.

North America: Quiet. The bulk of the Gilberts invasion force is ten hexes SSW of Los Angeles. Several advance TFs that left Hawaii a week ago with troops bound for a variety of islands are nearing their respective "Point Lucks," after which they'll close on their targets, which include Tabituea and Ndeni.

SoPac: A Kiwi brigade is aboard ships bound for Noumea. If it arrives safely, the AV there will be about 150.

Oz: The KB is not far west of Perth. I have no shipping in the area. I'm looking for an invasion, but we'll see.