The Gamiest Game in Town - EL (J) vs Rio Bravo (A)

[Lowpe]

Now, reasons why this is a good opportunity to fight all out:

You are fighting inside your land based search, outside his.

You don't have to worry about heavy bombers.

Allies have no bases, so no rearming, no pt boats, no land based air at all.

Allies have a long supply line, a long way to go for damaged ships.

High forts means fighting will last a few days at least? Allies will have to devote a fair number of surface ships to shore bombardments.

Allies don't have Corsairs on their carriers.

You can resupply, reinforce, cycle in an out, have a shorter supply line.

Allied fighter production is weak at this point of the game.

[Lowpe]

Went back and checked, so this is a scenario 2 game.

You should have many extra tank divisions, and should able to really develop a strong defense of the Hokkaido/Bonins/Daito/Luzon Line no matter what happens.

[el lobo]

Pax and Lowpe.

First of all, thank you very much for taking the time and effort to help me out.

Due to our time difference, your posts above got to me in the late evening, my time. In most cases I would be ready to send, or would have sent the turn to Rio, but after reading your posts, and given the gravity of the situation, I informed Rio that I am going to take a couple of days break to work on it.

I can feel your frustration in not knowing my intentions or exactly what I have in the area. One of the problems is that not having experience, I do not realize all of the subtleties of the game that you guys now take for granted.

For various reasons, most of which you point-out, and the "game playing" experience, I have decided that this is the time to go all in. We will take a stand here, fight to the bloody-end, and hope for the best.

Over the next couple of days I will graphically list for you what I have and what I can bring. A lot of challenges for me, a lot to learn in a short time, but a lot of fun and excitement.

Thanks again.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Now, reasons why this is a good opportunity to fight all out:

You are fighting inside your land based search, outside his.

You don't have to worry about heavy bombers.

Allies have no bases, so no rearming, no pt boats, no land based air at all.

Allies have a long supply line, a long way to go for damaged ships.

High forts means fighting will last a few days at least? Allies will have to devote a fair number of surface ships to shore bombardments.

Allies don't have Corsairs on their carriers.

You can resupply, reinforce, cycle in an out, have a shorter supply line.

Allied fighter production is weak at this point of the game.

+1

Which is all why I would put up a fight here. As I say, I think he is too early, but only if I am prepared and able to use ALL of the IJ forces. Every ship, almost every air group, 5 - 6 ID's for counter ... The allies are coming big, you have to meet them with full strength or just snipe at them. Meeting them halfway will cost you a lot ...

Don't know the timing now, but don't go in halfway is all I can say. Sniping is not going in halfway, it means sitting back and then coming in hard and fast and right back out. Timing moves, like everything else, hard to do .. even in a sandbox where you know what the allies are doing! [:D]

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Went back and checked, so this is a scenario 2 game.

You should have many extra tank divisions, and should able to really develop a strong defense of the Hokkaido/Bonins/Daito/Luzon Line no matter what happens.

Also means extra ARM will be needed ...

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: el lobo

Pax and Lowpe.

First of all, thank you very much for taking the time and effort to help me out.

Due to our time difference, your posts above got to me in the late evening, my time. In most cases I would be ready to send, or would have sent the turn to Rio, but after reading your posts, and given the gravity of the situation, I informed Rio that I am going to take a couple of days break to work on it.

I can feel your frustration in not knowing my intentions or exactly what I have in the area. One of the problems is that not having experience, I do not realize all of the subtleties of the game that you guys now take for granted.

For various reasons, most of which you point-out, and the "game playing" experience, I have decided that this is the time to go all in. We will take a stand here, fight to the bloody-end, and hope for the best.

Over the next couple of days I will graphically list for you what I have and what I can bring. A lot of challenges for me, a lot to learn in a short time, but a lot of fun and excitement.

Thanks again.

Well, first off, good luck.

We're not frustrated ... just cautioning you that you need to take our suggestions carefully. Integrate them into your plan. And no matter what we suggest, it is still you because we can't control the clicks. [;)]

And let's be honest here, the clicks matter a LOT at this point. One hex here, one there is all the difference.

This is all about force ratios. First you sit down and list out what he is bringing: every carrier, most BB's, etc. It's the carriers that matter here though. Guess high on the Hellcat count, assume all fighters are F6F. Count up how many that is. i posted the total aircraft curve for the allies recently somewhere ... call it 1600 aircraft 7/43. you want double that, at least, to face him. Now can you get that many? Doesn't count your ASW patrols or your NavSearch patrols.[;)] Literally it means almost every airgroup you have. Now the million dollar question: they need to be there 1 day before you use them because air groups will rarely attack the same day they move. On top of this you want another few hundred 'spares' sitting in Iwo ...

Ships: all you have and then be sure you have converted Bonins into an emergency repair base. Naval HQ with all of your AR,AD,AS types there to help repair. Shuffle your CS's there as well. They are your best ASW escorts you can buy, and you plan to need them. Ships are going to get hurt. Bad.

Amphibs. I would want 4-6 ID's in the Bonins. You have to spread them out due to stacking. I usually build up Chichi-jima to port 3 in case this happens. port 3 is important because you get sub nets ... allies have nothing to penetrate sub nets, so hurt ships are safe from subs in port 3. Also, this help with load/unload of these ID's ...

That's the setup for the fight I would use in broad strokes. The more aircraft I can get, the better. I tend to go over board as numbers really matter in air combat.

As for combat, this is what I would do. (Remember though, this is sandbox and AI so listen to Lowpe or others carefully if they suggest otherwise.) Netties on night attack beginning 1 day before they are in range. LOTS of them. 4 full groups if I can and alternate days with 4 other groups. So 1 night on, 1 night rest. +100 aircraft) They should get 4 - 5 attacks. They should collect 2 - 4 ships per attack, mostly trash ships, BUT they will be burning up the allies AA. You can get really lucky and collect an amphib or two.

Once they are within normal LBA range (~10 hex), you have two choices attack or defend. For me, this depends a bit upon what the allies do as they also have two choices: attack or defend. If I attack, then the KB provides LRCAP and then I set the attack to short range 2- 4 hex. So, the attack only launches if they come in close. Now, this can be spoofed if the allies suspect (every tactic has a counter) which is why the LRCAP is in place. Can't afford to have the air bases torched. If I defend, I'm praying that the amphibs are not making a rush in ... I rarely use the KB on the first day of attack. Which way? depends upon what I know of the player and that is telegraphed by where his ships are. you know the movement limits of his ships ...

That's as far as I can go at this point too many variables ...

[Anachro]

I want screenshots and in-depth narration of the events over the next few weeks! Not just the combat report! [:D] Looking forward to it.

[adarbrauner]

So let's see:

if the Allies kept all of their starting carriers, so then they should come with those six plus 4 (?) Essex? So 10 or less main carriers, plus some 4 CVLs maybe, Escort Carriers not included? Am I wrong with the count?

Uh oh, forgot the British, the RN; two or three Indomitable class in addition, for some 40 Martlets at their best?

this accounts for 380 or less of a mix Hellcats/Wildcats (maybe all HEllcats by I greatly doubt it) available for the strike.

Your numbers are already more than 200 fighters embarked, plus 100 land based, and some 150-200 incoming, or other wise rallying at the Bonins, or at Ulithy and Philippines, ready for the turn to be cleared

I don't know how many land based fighter groups are now in the islands , but even if not that many you really have the time to bring in more and more (Rio cannot).


Key point is a lot of Air support, and on as many islands as possible, I think. And you really can amass many other air support units in Philippines or Bonin or Carolines/Ulithi ready to be air lifted to the Marianas.

BTW, the 20 mm MG AA starting with the Kwantung Army can be airlifted... they add to the count.

I assume all major islands are very well and strongly garrisoned, or are to be become in the very short term (I repeat my self, that I see this move by Rio as extremely bold, dangerous and risky by his side).

I still keep my advice that the greatest number of available airfields on all islands is a power multiplier on your behalf.

As I wrote before, my approach would be to let him air strike first and even second and third if possible and applicable, to well attrite his fighter force.
To this end, I'd

- try to ground part of the attack groups from the flattops, keeping only those needed to ASW duties, to enlarge the fighter complements, depending on your pilots pool availability.

- position the carrier fleets at safety distance - but not too much distant - from the islands, and place strong LRCAP on them

I don't know if you have time for this, now that your carriers are already at combat position west of Marianas, but I'd strongly check the feasabilty of fast retiring the carriers to where they can receive additional fighters, at any suitable time. This by itself may double your embarked fighters availabilty, and even triple if you have enough planes and trained pilots.

May be this be done at Manila, if enough built up and supplied (I don't have the map open right now, so cannot see and check the distances)?


It is agreed with Lowpe and Pax that numbers here count, but the number of fighters you can bring in the battle could even, match and easily surpass those of Rio.


Battleships: he may well have retained some 6 of the glorious Oldies + 4, 5 or 6 South Dakotas/New Mexicos? Plus some ipotethically 3 Queen Elizabeth/Sovereign class? This is a tremendous punch, Heavy Cruisers not included, nor the great number of CLs and DDs.

My guess is that he's going straight to bombard your airfields and troops, but unless Rio's gifted with steel nerves, he'll still need to sweep and airfield attack first ..- and then the carnage shall start..YYIIKES!!

I'd bring close ALL THE NAVY and surface assets

I foresee the possibility of the most epic surface clash on the shores of the Marianas, where your fleet could enjoy of effective air cover-CAP/LRCAP. Where the weight of Yamato and Musashi may be felt. IJN may be outnumbered, and a great carnage ensuing. But I think I'd go for that, may this possibility arise.


Have you already rallied the midgets? The ROs? Hurry up El Lobo!

I'm eager to see the results of night attacks by the Betties, as suggested by Pax.

But as soon as they get in range of the US embarked airplanes, I'd rebase them in the Bonins/Ulithi.

I'm still not ruling out an assault also on Marcus Island, whose closeness my greatly aid Rio in his quest for the Marianas.


Could it be said here, BANZAI?

[el lobo]

Thanks again Pax. A long list of stuff to do, working on it.

Thanks for you comments adarbrauner.

Just one thing. Having been friends with Rio most of my life, I would never under estimate any endeavor that Rio undertakes. Just like in RL, what ever he has planned here is well thought-out and will be well executed.

But, let's see if we can bloody his nose.

Anachro, welcome.

I prefer screen-shots rather than CRs so I will try my best. BTW, one of my best friends is from near Boston, Sharon, and now lives in LA. Go figure. [:)]

[el lobo]

In the mean-time, here is some of the last turn.

PACIFIC Jun 21, 1943 Turn 562

When you start the turn and the first thing you see is the screen-shot above, you know it is not going to be a good day. But it could always be worse. If Junyo does not get molested further she should make it to port (5, 25, 3).

We did our first LBA attacks and they were not pretty either. Here are some examples. As you can see, he has some hellacious CAP.

I have switched-out some units.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Saipan at 112,95

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 118 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 35 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 19

Allied aircraft
F4F-3 Wildcat x 8
F4F-4 Wildcat x 170
FM-1 Wildcat x 23
F6F-3 Hellcat x 225

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zero: 8 destroyed, 1 damaged
A6M5 Zero: 1 destroyed by flak

No Allied losses
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Saipan at 112,95

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 119 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 41 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 25
B5N1 Kate x 2
D4Y3 Judy x 2
G4M1 Betty x 4

Allied aircraft
F4F-3 Wildcat x 8
F4F-4 Wildcat x 166
FM-1 Wildcat x 22
F6F-3 Hellcat x 225

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zero: 1 destroyed
B5N1 Kate: 1 destroyed
D4Y3 Judy: 1 destroyed
G4M1 Betty: 3 destroyed
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Saipan at 112,95

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 107 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 46 minutes

Japanese aircraft
B5N1 Kate x 9

Allied aircraft
F4F-3 Wildcat x 8
F4F-4 Wildcat x 162
FM-1 Wildcat x 22
F6F-3 Hellcat x 225

Japanese aircraft losses
B5N1 Kate: 4 destroyed

ETC. No Allied losses for the day

[Lowpe]

He is close.[X(] Flying normal attacks at 10 to 15k against the deathstar yields losses like you saw. But it is information. Scroll down and read his patrol heights.

Your best bet on a day like this is one squadron attacking, even a 1/3rd of sentai attacking but escorted by 200-500 of your best fighters flying at 30K. That is what I call a poor mans sweep. The other option I never tried would be to do the same thing at 2000 feet. I have been tempted to try one large betty/nell/jill squadron attacking at 2000 feet with torps and all the fighters you have providing a layered escort at 2000, 3000, 4000, 5000 feet etc.

The other option is to get some surface ships, destroyers most likely, and get it out near the deathstar to draw an aerial attack. Of course you have it heavily lrcap. Much easier to kill his planes as they attack. Also it might slow down the TF coming depending upon their settings.

Figure his invasion fleets can make 6 hexes....I guess? Maybe more? Help me out here AFBS? They are certainly in range to bombard provided he isn't running short of fuel.

If he does bombard he has two choices remain on station or retire back to Pearl/Midway/Wake. Perhaps there is an opportunity to hit the retiring fleets? Count hexes.

If you are flying in troops...be careful this turn as he may actually put CVE TF in those hexes providing CAP over the bombardment TF. Then again he might not do that.

On the good news front none of your minefields are spotted.[:)] To be effective you need 1000 mines massed, 300 will do something, and of course you will need CD and DP guns covering them.

Without a matching 500 plane escort nothing will get thru...and even then they will take a huge beating and will need experience and skill to make hits. 1000 fighters would be better. However getting land base air to coordinate to that degree is very tough hence my suggestions from above.

I wouldn't have hesitated to run in 3-4 ship destroyer groups into that mass yesterday and try to get good night time engagements. Might have scattered something, and you could have staggered the range on the aerial attacks. Plus they might have actually gotten thru...say a lucky torpedo hit, or even just draining the Battleships main gun ammo.

I will be brutally honest. Allies are bleeding you, you aren't bleeding him and he is very, very close. Depending upon his CAP settings, which you didn't post, you might have at least caused a jump in plane and pilot fatigue...but you also gave him a jump on pilot experience too.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Without a matching 500 plane escort nothing will get thru...and even then they will take a huge beating and will need experience and skill to make hits. 1000 fighters would be better. However getting land base air to coordinate to that degree is very tough hence my suggestions from above.

Hence the LBA numbers I laid out. I agree with everything else Lowpe said. You cannot trickle in with 100 planes, you lose 50, he loses 1. You either have +1000 aircraft going in, or do not go in. Unless at night. At night, you can attack with what you want.

The CAP you saw is not his full CAP, it is half at best. As stated before, he will have up to 1600 aircraft coming at you from his CV's. I always go with the high number as there is no downside. Assume he has re-balanced the ships and is 50% fighter, 30%DB, 20%TB. That's 800 fighters. Me? I wouldn't attack with less than 2000 aircraft, in '43 that is just about every single LBA air group you have that is not restricted.

Now, you will not get a wave of 2000 aircraft to go in ... no way. you will get 20 - 30 waves of 50 - 100 aircraft*. The first 10 waves will be slaughtered, the last 10 will face the AA will little to no fighter cover. If you have not depleted the AA with night attacks, you will get 3% - 5% hits assuming 70% skill/exp pilots. You can do the math .... if those last 10 contain 1000 aircraft, thats going to be 30 - 50 hits. So, you are spending 2000 aircraft to get maybe 40 hits. They will be either amphibs or capital ships if your DL is high. Figure it takes 3 hits to put a ship out of combat, 5 to sink. 10% of your hits will be kami in mid-43. those if they hit count double.

If you have been able to deplete the allied AA ... oh, your hit rate can double or more. 80 hits ... that's a lot of smoking ships. All of this is from sand boxing these types of attacks. Lotta variables here, and the actual outcomes will vary wildly because even if you have 2000 they may not launch due to weather, the target is obscured by weather, etc. etc. etc. But these things all tend to balance out. If you can't hit him due to weather, his CAP likely doesn't launch and you hit other ships with little loss except a lot of supply and accumulated fatigue. etc etc etc. All tradeoffs, and you assess after the first attack.

Point being you are offering to trade +1000 planes to set him back 6 months to a year. I always make that trade. [;)]

The second day, if the first goes off to plan is when you want to use the KB. You are now near parity with him. Alpha strike with the KB, LRCAP from LBA. KB has your best pilots and planes to hit naval targets. If you sent 2000 the first day and hit him, he is going to be seriously depleted. His fighters will be fatigued, a lot will be in repair, but he may not yet be thinking of withdrawal. If he does withdraw, you still launch and clean up all of the cripples. Do not chase.

*I will say that you might get really lucky and have some big waves go in. I have seen it, just not a high probability. If they are early, the losses will still be very high, but the toll on the CAP is even higher. If they are later, say the last one were to go in with 250 planes, your hit rate would be much higher. AA cannot concentrate as much (by appearances), anyway, you get more hits.

[Lowpe]

I should mention that the poor mans sweep strategy I mentioned above, was for the distant approach:

distance from base:

21 hexes away and closer night torpedo attacks if you can pull them off with Emily/Nell.

12 hexes away & closer high altitude poor mans sweep & surges with destroyer squadrons (plus LRCAP).

6-7-8 hexes are getting within range to hit it with everything.

Really super rough guideline....

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I should mention that the poor mans sweep strategy I mentioned above, was for the distant approach:

distance from base:

21 hexes away and closer night torpedo attacks if you can pull them off with Emily/Nell.

12 hexes away & closer high altitude poor mans sweep & surges with destroyer squadrons (plus LRCAP).

6-7-8 hexes are getting within range to hit it with everything.

Really super rough guideline....

+1 except no downside to continuing night attacks at any range.

Be sure to have your subs in the area to collect pilots. I had one sub once collect more than 30 pilots. don't ask me they were sitting as that was one crowded sub. [:D]

[el lobo]

Thanks Guys. A lot of great information there. A couple of questions later but I need to catch-up. Looking around like this, sometimes you find an egg or two.

PACIFIC -AIR Jun 21, 1943 Turn 562

Shown below, not counting Yokohama, ~199 Fighters in various states of repair, plus the KB and Junyo.

Here is what I am bringing as far as fighters:

George, 2 x 45, 3 x 36, five to six days, 1 x 9, two days, ~ 200.
Jack, 1 x 36, 3 x 27, five to six days, 1 x 17, two days, ~120.
Tojo, 5 x 42, 1 x 30, five to six days, 6-7 x 12-14, various, ~270.
Zero, 1 x 45 plus various smaller units,~ 80.

More later.

[el lobo]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

Be sure to have your subs in the area to collect pilots. I had one sub once collect more than 30 pilots. don't ask me they were sitting as that was one crowded sub. [:D]

Funny.

I once had an air unit with one fighter and twenty-six pilots fly from Tokyo to Singapore.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I should mention that the poor mans sweep strategy I mentioned above, was for the distant approach:

distance from base:

21 hexes away and closer night torpedo attacks if you can pull them off with Emily/Nell.

12 hexes away & closer high altitude poor mans sweep & surges with destroyer squadrons (plus LRCAP).

6-7-8 hexes are getting within range to hit it with everything.

Really super rough guideline....

+1 except no downside to continuing night attacks at any range.

I did say and closer.[:)]

You can even use Peggy/Helens at low level too during the night. They will eat up a lot of flak shots, low approach, low bomb, and low escape.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I should mention that the poor mans sweep strategy I mentioned above, was for the distant approach:

distance from base:

21 hexes away and closer night torpedo attacks if you can pull them off with Emily/Nell.

12 hexes away & closer high altitude poor mans sweep & surges with destroyer squadrons (plus LRCAP).

6-7-8 hexes are getting within range to hit it with everything.

Really super rough guideline....

+1 except no downside to continuing night attacks at any range.

I did say and closer.[:)]

Oops, miss-read on my part. sorry!

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: el lobo

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

Be sure to have your subs in the area to collect pilots. I had one sub once collect more than 30 pilots. don't ask me they were sitting as that was one crowded sub. [:D]

Funny.

I once had an air unit with one fighter and twenty-six pilots fly from Tokyo to Singapore.

There is a pool of transport pilots. They are not combat trained, a lot of time were women, that ferried planes.

[el lobo]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: el lobo

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

Be sure to have your subs in the area to collect pilots. I had one sub once collect more than 30 pilots. don't ask me they were sitting as that was one crowded sub. [:D]

Funny.

I once had an air unit with one fighter and twenty-six pilots fly from Tokyo to Singapore.

There is a pool of transport pilots. They are not combat trained, a lot of time were women, that ferried planes.

* handing Lowpe a cup of coffee * Lowpe, ONE plane, TWENTY-SIX fighter pilots. [:)] I think you read vise versa.