Forlorn Hopes: John III vs. Canoerebel

[Canoerebel]

10/7/44 and 10/8/44
 
It's not often that a complex plan comes together so well - in fact, ahead of schedule.  I'd better enjoy it while I can, because fortune has a funny way of changing sides and then nipping me in the fanny.
 
Hong Kong:  BB Howe went under on the 7th.  There were more scattered kamikazee strikes on a few transports (losing an AK in exchange for about 15 aircraft doesn't seem so bad).  The Allies have base forces and more than 100 aircraft in place at Hong Kong.  The troops rested for one day and will shock attack tomorrow.  The undamaged remnants of the RN combat TF (two CLs and about eight DDs) hit Jap transports at Swatow, sinking five AKs and a PC.  On the 8th, 167 B-29s and 44 B-24s hit Takao, Formosa's airfield and may have done enough to shut it down temporarily.  A sizeable contingent of Jap DDs plus at least one CA (Aoba) sighted in the straights north of Luzon on a westerly course that could take them to Hong Kong (or, less likely, this is the KB coming to raid).  I'm temporarily pulling my tansports back from Hong Kong as most are empty or nearly so.  The RN combat ships stayed at Swatow, for some reason (and luckily didn't come under air attack).  I've ordered them to return to HK and disband in port.  I've shifted more Allied airpower from rear fields (like Haiphong and Chungking) to forward fields (HK, Kiangshan, and Wuchow) and set everything for naval strike, including four B-29 groups at Changsha.  Note:  This is the first time I've set B-29s for naval strike in the game, and I've limited them to a range of just nine hexes.  In my game with Miller he said that B-29s hitting shipping 20 to 25 hexes distant was just too ridiculous and damaging to permit.  I haven't mentioned my self-imposed embargo on B-29 naval strikes to John, as I prefer that he at least fear the possibility of such strikes.
 
China:  Air transport of infantry into Ichang continues.  The defensive AV is closing on 200 now, so it will soon reach the point that John won't be able to re-take this city once he realizes that the threat to Singyang wasn't all that great.  As with previous turns, Jap troops are all over the place in China (even landing at Amoy and then marching across open fields to reach Swatow), and ships are too.  Clearly Operation Shooting Star achieved strategic surprise, or else John is late in just now deciding he really doesn't want to lose alot of China. 
 
Japan:  Big raid sheduled for Tokyo tomorrow.
 
CenPac:  The American carriers are two hexes south of Iwo and will remain there another day or two. The transports are unloading at Iwo to give the troops time to fully recover from the disruption incurred at Wake Island.  I'm not exactly sure what I want to do with the carriers yet.  They are short on fuel, several have 10-12 SYS now, and nearly all need upgrades from way back in mid-1943.  I want to see if John commits the KB to China; if he does, I may employ the carriers as a diversion.  If I can move on Swatow, China, without the KB interfering, then I will probably send the American carriers back to Midway to refuel, swap out fatigued ships for reinforcements, and then return for the invasion of Formosa.
 
SWPac:  The Allies tried a probing shock attack at Port Moresby on the 8th, and to my surprise the assault came off at 9:1 and dropped forts from 8 to 0.  The Allies have lost a good dozen ships to CD guns and small air raids from Lae and Rabaul, but this on-the-fly gamble has paid off handsomely.  Operation Mercury succeeded.
 
Points:  (A) 75,376 (J) 56,674; Ratio:  1.33 to 1; Strategic:  13,148.

[String]

Perhaps now would be a good time to wreck the HI air defences with massive sweeps from your carrier force?

[Heeward]

As to where John's carriers are, consider what other assets he would deploy in support of them and where those assets are.
 
As to updating your fleet I expect due to position vs major ports you will be needing a three to four month update cycle, If you margin of superiority is great enough I suggest you get on this right away.

[Canoerebel]

10/9/44 and 10/10/44
 
Operation Shooting Star:  This operation is already a great success, having attained strategic surprise, taken the key objective (Hong Kong), threatened the enemy flank, and apparently thrown the enemy into consternation.  And the operation has only just begun...
 
Hong Kong:  The Allied CL/DD TF ordered to return to HK to disband encountered two enemy combat TFs and got the better of the ensuing clashes, sinking one CL, directly sinking at least four DDs and damaging other DDs that have since succumbed to LBA.  The Alllies lost four DDs.  The remnants are in port at HK with reinforcements, including BBs Queen Elizabeth and Valiant, nearby.  The Allies are basing 135 aircraft at HK now with more to come.  600 AV prepped for HK are loading at Haiphong and will arrive in about three days.  They will take over the effort to extinquish the surviving enemy units; the units currently at HK are resting and will embark to move on Swatow, the next port up the coast.  If I can take Swatow, then I will be ready to move on Formosa.
 
China:  The Allies have already air transported about 300 AV to Ichang and are in a standoff at Singyang.  John's going to try to come behind my army at Singyang, and may be able to force a river crossing to the rear where I have a smaller army posted, but that's fine by me.  This part of the operation is intended mainly to draw Japanese attention and troops.  The Allies have about 6000 AV at Canton and are heavily bombing ground troops, port, and aifield.  The Japs have 4 and 1/3 divisions here.  I will try a probing attack about the time I'm ready to move on Swatow (don't want to accidentally win at Canton only to send those Jap troops scurrying for Swatow).
 
Strategic Situation:  The western Allies (Chinese, Brits, Indians, etc.) can handle things in China unless John employs the KB.  If he does that, the American carriers will lend a hand; if John doesn't commit the KB, the Americans will crouch on the periphery to distract the enemy.  If John doesn't commit the KB, the Allies will be able to take Swatow and that will probably force him to evacuate Canton.  After that things will become increasingly difficult as the Japs are flooding reinforcements this way both by sea and land.  It's alot of fun to see John scramble to meet the emergency.  One result is that there's alot of Jap transports moving around coastal China, and Allied LBA from China have damaged or sanks several score already.
 
Japan:  A big bomber raid against Tokyo on the 9th met nearly no resistance - just nine Franks that couldn't handle 73 P-47D.  The bombers (167 B-24 and B-17 and 133 B-29) hit Okha, airfield, resources (the main focus), and heavy industry.  Another big raid scheduled tomorrow.  The American carriers will probably participate in raids on the HI a time or two unless duty calls them to China.
 
SWPac:  The Aussies took Port Moresby on the 9th.  Operation Mercury was a resounding success despite the loss of about ten MSW and transports to LBA and CDs.  Operation Venus (to be revealed later) is ready to go.
 
SEAC:  Allied LBA from Singapore, Johore Bharu, and other bases hit Palembang daily, with 3,000 AV at Singapore prepping for that city.  I don't have transports to carry these troops and don't want to stir up a hornet's nest while all my attention and most of my assets are up in China; however, once China bogs down, the Allies will be ready to move.
 
Points:  (A) 75,834 (J) 56,604; Ratio:  1.34 to 1; Strategic:  13,458.
 
Vacation:  The Allied commander and his family are heading out for a three-day family reunion, so there will be a temporary cease fire.  Y'all have a good one.
 
 

[Alikchi2]

Enjoy your vacation sir!

Wish that happened in the real war.. "Right, Nimitz has to attend his second-cousin's bat mitzvah.. war's off for a week"

[Canoerebel]

10/11/44 to 10/13/44
 
Following the fall of Hong Kong and Port Moresby, the Allies are reorganizing and reloading in preparation for the next offensives.
 
SEAC:  LBA continue to focus on Palembang.
 
China:  Hong Kong-prepped troops are on the way to HK to take over the duty of wiping out the remnant Jap defenders.  It will probably take me two lifts to bring the needed troops from Haiphong.  When that task is completed, the Swatow-prepped troops will embark for that operation.  Kiungshan just went to level four airfield.  The first Allied attack at Canton will occur in about four days; LBA hits the Jap defenders at Canton in large numbers daily.  Quiet at Singyang at the moment as neither side has enough to dislodge the other.  The Allies have 400 AV at Ichang.
 
Japan:  Recon shows at least four CVs at Nagasaki.  Not sure why they are there, and the CAP doesn't seem overwhelming.  My bombers are recovering from their recent large raid on Tokyo (on the 11th), so it will be another day or two before they can strike.
 
CenPac:  The American carriers are currently in port at Iwo Jima.  Quiet elsewhere.
 
NoPac:  A second division is unloading at Cold Bay; after it recovers from disruption, the two divisions will commence attacking.
 
SWPac:  An American division will hit the beaches at Luganville tomorrow.  This is another shoestring operation predicated on the belief that the island is lightly defended.

[Canoerebel]

10/14/44 and 10/15/44
 
China:  Two Hong Kong-prepped units (600 AV) arrived from Haiphong and immediately commenced attacking the remnant Jap army.  The Swatow-prepped troops are standing down to recover disruption; Swatow-prepped troops at Haiphong are loaded on transports that will begin the journey to Hong Kong tonight.  D-Day for the invasion of Swatow is perhaps six days away.  The Allied army besieging Canton continues to increase as new units arrive, but this action is intended primarily to hold the Jap army in place while the real focus turns to Swatow; if I take the latter, it essentially cuts off the Jap army at Canton.  The Japs have stopped flooding the sea lanes with troops ships, so at least temporarily it seems that the Jap effort to reinforce China is halted (or ended).  Swatow only has five units about 20K strong; the Allies probably have 2,000 AV 85% prepped for the base.
 
Japan:  The Superforts haven't flown since the 11th, but the forecast over Japan tomorrow is partly cloudy skies.  Recon continues to show four CVs plus a CAP of 200 fighters at Nagasaki.  With reservations, I'm going to try a strike against this port.  All Tori Shima P-47Ds are to fly sweep, with five B-29 groups from Shikuka targeting the port; of the four B-29 groups from Changsha, China, two will target the port, one will target resources, and one will target the Frank factory.  The remaining Allied 4EB on Sikhalin Island will target Tokyo (resources, Okha factory, and airfield) preceded by a sweep by Iwo Jima-based fighters.  This is a complicated operation against a target that John will defend heavily, so I'm worried about taking big losses.
 
CenPac:  The American carriers have been in port at Iwo for several days; they'll move out tonight just to shuffle the deck a bit.  They aren't going anywhere.
 
NoPac:  The Allies will shock attack at Cold Bay tomorrow; this follows a 2:1 shock attack on the 14th that dropped forts from 9 to 7.  The base should fall in a day or two.
 
SWPac:  40th Division landed at Luganville, which appears lightly held.  The troops will shock attack tomorrow and I expect the base to fall.
 
SEAC:  Allied bombers continue to hit Palembang daily.

[Canoerebel]

10/16/44
 
My misgivings were misplaced as both Japan raids went well:
 
Nagasaki:  A fighter sweep by 85 P-47Ds from Tori Shima mixed with 136 George, Zeke, and Jack; the Allies lost 7 aircraft to 96 for the Japs.  Then some 88 B-29s from Changsha hit the port and other facilties, scoring 29 hits against CVE Unyo.  Next came about 230 B-29s from Shikuka; these scored 33 more hits against poor Unyo, which finally succumbed to her wounds (she had first been badly damaged in the Battle for Sikhalin Island about ten months ago).  (Recon shows two other CVs in port here, but no sign of them during the bombing runs.)
 
Tokyo:  The 4EB (non-B-29) from Toyohara found just a handful of fighters and did damage to Tokyo's resources, Okha factory, and airfield.  A subsequent fighter sweep from Iwo Jima downed a handful of Randy fighters.
 
China:  The Swatow troops left Haiphong and will reach Hong Kong tomorrow or the next day.  Two large Chinese units at Hong Kong are loading transports.  D-Day for the invasion of Swatow is no more than four days off.
 
NoPac:  The attack at Cold Bay dropped forts to 6.  I'll rest the troops a few days and try again.
 
SWPac:  Despite vast numerical superiority, the Allied attack at Luganville failed (due to lack of supplies).  Transports are on the way and the next attack should take place in three or four days.  I think it will succeed in taking the base.
 
Points:  (A) 76,774 to (J) 56,740; Ratio:  1.35 to 1; Strategic Points:  13,954.  (Note:  by the time I drew even with the Japs in this game I was six months behind my pace in my game with Miller; but the gap has narrowed to just over two months as of the dates in the two games for the Allies to draw ahead by 20,000 points).

[Canoerebel]

10/17/44 and 10/18/44
 
Operation Shooting Star:  The operation picks up again tonight as the troop transports weigh anchor at Hong Kong.  They will proceed two hexes north tomorrow, finishing the day one hex from Swatow.  The transports will be accompanied by a combat TF.  Fighters from Wuchow will provide LRCAP.  When the landings commence in two days, LRCAP will be provided by fighters based at Hong Kong.  As best I can tell, John is concentrating on the threat to Canton via land, and possibly doesn't recognize the peril posed by an amphibious assault on Canton's flank.  Swatow has 5 units some 20,000 strong.  The landing force should carry something like 1,500 AV, with more troops at Hong Kong in reserve.  The Allies will have 7,500 AV at Canton in a few days.  John is pulling troops out of Kanhsien and apparently sending them to Canton, but they are on bad roads to travel.  I don't think they can reach Swatow in time.  If John's going to reinforce Swatow, he'll have to pull troops from Canton.  He'll be in a bit of a bind.
 
SwPAC:  Darwin-based B-29s hit Kendari's resources on the 18th, doing 70 points of damage.  Supply transports are unloading at Luganville, so 40th Division should be able to attack in two days.  I think think the base will fall then.

[String]

Btw, traveling LCU's are a great target for bombers.

[Canoerebel]

10/19/44
 
Swatow:  The amphibious armada ended the day a hex from Swatow and nothing has gone amiss to this point.  The invasion force includes a West African Division, Chinese, and British troops.  D-Day is tomorrow.  The troops transports, supply ships, and combat TF will be covered by LRCAP from Hong Kong.
 
SEAC:  To try to throw John a bit off balance, I had a large group of carriers suddenly arrive at Singapore.  His recon picked it up, so I hope he'll wonder if the Allies are about to move on Palembang.  These carriers include the British fleet carriers and American carriers Bennington and Ticonderoga.  When last I mentioned these ships, they were posted in the Coral Sea.  I didn't mention their subsequent move to the Indian Ocean out of concern that a security leak would be disastrous - especially while the ships were south of Java and in close proxmity to what I thought was the KB's location.
 
SWPac:  40th Division will attack at Luganville the day after tomorrow.

[Canoerebel]

10/19/44
 
Four big attacks ordered tomorrow, and the Allies are optimistic about three of them....
 
Swatow:  D-Day at Swatow went well, with about 1,000 AV coming ashore against what can best be described as a meager defense.  There are only two Jap infantry units at the base - a very depleted 39th Division with an AV of less than 100, and 116/B Divsion (1/3rd of the division) with an AV or something over 100.  The Allies will shock attack tomorrow, hopefully preceded by a massive bombing raid including four B-29 groups and hundreds of Liberators, Mitchells, and Wellingtons.  I don't see any signs that John has sent the KB this way, nor that he's loaded up the airfields within range.  I think there's a 60% chance Swatow will fall tomorrow.
 
Canton:  The Allies will try a deliberate attack tomorrow, with 7,500 AV facing about 1,500 AV in an urban hex with probably nine forts.  This attack shouldn't work, but I hope it will hold the Canton Japs in place while I secure Swatow.  This is the first try at Canton (well, the first since a stab at the city way back in '42).
 
Cold Bay, Alaksa:  An Allied shock attack today sent forts from 6 to 1.  This base should change hands tomorrow.
 
Luganville:  A Jap DD force sank the supply AK and possibly brought reinforcements to the Naval Guard unit, but 40th Division is nearly fully supplied, 80% prepped, and may take the base tomorrow.
 
SEAC:  The Brit and American carriers remain at Singapore.  I wonder if John will be enticed to strike?  I don't plan to leave them there very long, though, as even with 200 fighters based at Singapore I'd be worried about the KB.
 
B-29 Bug Strikes:  John raised cain when 29 B-29s from Singapore joined some PBY Liberators in hitting a small TF, damaging two Jap PGs.  The odd thing was that this B-29 group (the only one at Singapore) was set to "City Attack - Palembang - Oil" and flew that mission.  So the Superforts weren't set to fly Naval Strike missions but did so anyway.  John is pissed and referred to a House Rule prohibiting such use of Superforts.  I don't think we had such a House Rule, though I had imposed it on myself as I mentioned in an AAR post a week or so ago.  I did so because Miller had requested it in our previous game and it seemed like a reasonable rule.  Now John also wants to prohibit B-29s flying Naval Search missions.  That certainly wasn't part of our House Rules and I don't think it's reasonable.

[marky]

hah yeah the houserule stuff is getting out of hand

next my opponents will be asking me to not screen my carriers [8|]

this is a war game ppl, if u dont wanna fight a war then play a different game

[castor troy]

ORIGINAL: marky

hah yeah the houserule stuff is getting out of hand

next my opponents will be asking me to not screen my carriers [8|]

this is a war game ppl, if u dont wanna fight a war then play a different game

If you play this game without houserules (with all it´s deficiencies) then you´re better off playing world of warcraft... [8|]

Even with 56770 hrs you state in your sig it still will have deficiencies...

[Canoerebel]

10/21/44 (The previous post should have been 10/19 and 10/20/44)
 
The Allied attacks went as predicted:
 
Swatow: A shock attack overcomes three forts and the Allies take this base with the defenders retreating into the fields towards Amoy.  The Allies are moving in a small base force to handle 30 fighters at this level 3 airfield, which can be built up to a 9, I think.  The fall of Swatow isolated the Japanese garrison at Canton (map to follow in a little while).
 
Canton:  The probing Allied attack came off at 1:1, dropped forts from 9 to 8, and cost the Allies 7k casualties to 1k for the Japanese.  This was quite encouraging - in fact, a little too encouraging.  I'm not sure that I want this Japanese army to retreat yet.   I have another 1500 AV one hex from Canton, and I'll bring them in; but another 2,000 AV on the roads from Wuchow to Hanoi will now change their prep to Nanchang and change course to join the Allied army already sitting outside that city.
 
Luganville:  40th Army Division takes this outpost.
 
Cold Bay, Alaska:  Two army divisions take this base, the last Japanese outpost in the Aleutians.  In fact, outside of mainland Asia, the Japs now have only one remaining base in NoPac - Wakkanai on the northern tip of the island of Hokkaido.
 
Japan:  Big raid planned for Gumma tomorrow - fighter sweep from Tori Shima followed by five about ten bomber gropus from Toyohara and Shikuka.
 
Operation Shooting Star/Operation Neptune: When originally conceived, I could plan far enough ahead to envision the fall of Hong Kong, Swatow, and possibly Ichang.  All those objectives have been achieved, so now the Allies will begin planning for phase two.  On the coast, this means amphibious assaults to take the cities of Amoy and Foochow.  Troops at Hong Kong and Haiphong are prepping already.  In the interior, John's armies at Canton and Kanhsien are now threatend with isolation and he may pull out of either or both cities.  The Allies move on Nanchang will take priority over the next few weeks; if that base falls then John's position in China could be cut in two.  But the ultimate objective of Shooting Star is to give the Allies big air bases on the coast to (1) hit shipping, and (2) provide LRCAP for the invasion of Formosa.  Once Amoy and Foochow fall (and both are lightly held at the moment), the invasion of Formosa (hereby dubbed Operation Neptune) can get underway.  The Allied troops at Iwo Jima will be 100% rested and 100% prepped by then.
 
Points:  (A) 76,929 (J) 56,691; Ratio: 1.35 to 1; Strategic:  13,9546.

[Canoerebel]

See previous post for details.

[String]

Interesting.

You only need a unit NE and E of Canton and you can trap the japanese forces by forcing them to retreat to the hex SE of Canton.

[Canoerebel]

10/22/44 to 10/24/44
 
China:  John complains bitterly about his troops being "stuck in Canton due to 59-mile bug."  I'm not sure that's the case; my guys attacked a few days ago, which generally freezes or halts movement.  Also, I think he's way to late to pull out of Canton anyhow.  He's got nothing but yellow roads to travel, and bombers would make mincemeat of his army.  Elsewhere, the Allied Army (British, West African, and Chinese) at Swatow are moving out in various directions; the Africans will move north into the fields to threaten Amoy.  Three big units plus artillery will move west to the hex adjacent to Canton.  The surviving Jap army at Hong Kong was extinquished on the 23rd.  So Allied troops in HK not prepping for the next invasion can join the party in Canton, where something like 8,000 AV has gathered.  The Amoy invasion could take place within a week - my troops would only be 10% prepped, but the Japs would be just as bad off.  Speed counts here.  But before then, the Allies may have a little surprise:  I'm sniffing around right now to see if it's possible....
 
Formosa:  John is hastily reinforcing this island.  Allied bombers from China damaged and sank perhaps 10 ships on the 24th, some at Formosa ports, some in between the island and the mainland.
 
Japan:  Four B-29 groups from Changsha hit the port at Nagasaki on the 24th, hoping to score against the three CVs located there for weeks.  The raid was preceded by a successful fighter sweep from Tori Shima (Japs lose 53, mostly George, and the Allies lose 3).  The bombers demolished three ARs and two TKs, but failed to report any carriers.  So I assume that John has carriers at Nagasaki, but hasn't disbanded them into the port.  Two days earlier, the five Shikuka B-29 groups, plus about 200 4EB from Toyohara, hit Gumma.  The fighter sweep first took care of the CAP (the Japs losing 60 fighters to just 7 for the Allies).  The bombers focused open several aircraft factories and Heavy Industry.

[bigbaba]

@Canoerebel:

your perfect tactic (first sending a fighter sweep, then the heavies) seems to work extremly well. like mitchers attack on truk in the spring of 1944.[&o]

and amazeing killrate by your pilots..even against jacks, franks and georges. can you post a picture of your fighter pilots killstats please?

[Canoerebel]

Top Allied aces (as requested by Bigbaba). I haven't looked at this screen since the start of the war and don't know off the top of my head where all of the squadrons are posted. However, I do know about the Flying Tigers. They spent the first 2.5 years of the war in CBI, and the last year at Iwo Jima. They have done awful things to the enemy.