The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

8/8/44

Sequencing and Timing of Operations: I have a complicated decision to make about what to do next. There are lots of variables. Each option has positives and negatives, so there's no obvious "winner." In order of priority:

1. Escort supply and reinforcement ships from DEI to Manila.
2. Maintain pressure on Formosa's airfields.
3. Maintain hold on Chinese beachheads and make sure my troops don't get overwhelmed while Death Star is away.
4. Formosa invasion.
5. Escort several hundred empty merchantmen part of the way home to West Coast or Oz.

I've just about decided not to take the risk of running out of supply on Luzon or with a shoestring Formosa invasion. Rather, I'll devote that last 60k supply to Luzon, thus keeping bombers flying.

I'd like to go ahead and send Death Star to the DEI immediately....but two large troop convoys are lagging behind and won't reach that area for at least two weeks. Those troops aren't needed for Formosa - they're for later operations - yet it would be efficient to bring them in with the other merchantmen rather than having to detach Death Star for them later, in yet another escort mission. Supply now is probably a higher priority than additional troops a bit later. I'm still waffling on that.

The supply/reinforcement TFs should reach Manila in about three weeks. Immediately thereafter, the invasion of Formosa commences. Once that is complete, Death Star will escort a host of empty ships halfway to a safe harbor, at the same time picking up more inbound supply and troop TFs.

All of this should take about eight to ten weeks. At the end of that interval, if things are going well, I'll be in position to trigger the next operation: Somersault.

[Lowpe]

Speaking as a JFB, with experience with the end game, there are definite options there that are only positive for Japan.

[Canoerebel]

Yer bein' to obtuse fer li'l ol' me to know what yer talkin' about.

As far as I'm concerned, every one of those five items is essential. For instance, when the next group of ships arrives at Manila, I'll have about 75% of my total lift capacity in the Philippines. IE, it's too the point where I can't bring new supply and reinforcement in efficiently. I have to send some ships back, and relatively soon.

As for number three, that's a matter of local defense - mainly five or ten destroyers and decent CAP to protect Foochow while Death Star is off in the DEI for ten days.

And alot depends on what John does with KB. If he takes the opportunity to push it north, my life gets complicated. If he keeps it in the DEI, he's just asking for trouble and my life remains (mostly) uncomplicated.

[BBfanboy]

I doubt John has done the diligent work required to have troops waiting in the wings to descend on coastal China as soon as DS departs. It will take him several days to realize DS is going further south than Manila, and then he will think in terms of whether you are trying to trap KB in the DEI. The Errant Knight will dance around the playing board without tending to the dangers approaching his king.

[Canoerebel]

Yes, I agree that's most likely what he'll do with KB.

I'm not concerned about him invading coastal China. I would be worried if he had a large army marching overland and had the ability to bombard coastal China with BBs. That would not be pretty.

[Lecivius]

This game is called Logistics In The Pacific [;)]

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Yer bein' to obtuse fer li'l ol' me to know what yer talkin' about.

I will explain when the game moves along some, if you are still interested and one of us remembers about it.[:)]

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

I doubt John has done the diligent work required to have troops waiting in the wings to descend on coastal China as soon as DS departs. It will take him several days to realize DS is going further south than Manila, and then he will think in terms of whether you are trying to trap KB in the DEI. The Errant Knight will dance around the playing board without tending to the dangers approaching his king.

That he built forts at Amoy to 5, but left the other adjacent bases basically defenseless should tell you something.

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Japan has to keep a garrison, if it falls below the garrison requirement then a roll is made -- so it isn't automatic. It has nothing to do with the amount of your troops present.

I have no clue what your two other options are, but I suspect activating the Soviets early would be the toughest as you need to destroy/disable enough AV to cause Japan to drop below the garrison requirement, and then get the die roll. That is what makes the strategy attractive.[:)]

However, with an active China....

Yeah, from forum discussions and experiments about five months ago the consensus was that "Garrison Requirement" means "Assigned to Kwantung Army". They do not have to be in Manchuria (other than by artificial House Rule on border crossing). So the only way to get the "Garrison Level" down is by destroying AV in the Kwantung Army. I did this in a game against the AI and at the point the Soviets activated I checked the Japanese Intel screen which said the Kwantung army was just a few points above 6000. Activation is not automatic below 8000, it's a die roll/probability equation.

John probably has removed all of the excess garrison, AA, A/T and artillery from Kwantung Army already, making the rest softer than usual.

I think turn 800? or maybe 900? is the trigger for Soviet Intervention that is I believe the 8000 threshold is not even checked before then ..
thus has anyone tested or experienced an activation before these thresholds? I can say my third game activated on a magic number after engaging IJ in China ..

[Canoerebel]

Thinking aloud proved helpful, so thanks for bearing with me as I put my thoughts in writing.

I've decided to prioritize supply over the more distant reinforcements.

Accordingly, Death Star will return immediately to Manila and then proceed to the DEI. And the supply/reinforcement TFs in Oz will proceed immediately to the DEI.

This link-up could occur in as little as a week, shaving off the additional two to three weeks that would be necessary if I await arrival of the three lagging reinforcement TFs that are plodding across SoPac.

That means Death Star and the Herd could be back at Manila in two weeks, ready to proceed with the Formosa invasion.

[JohnDillworth]

This game is called Logistics In The Pacific

Have to agree. The next phase will take tons of supply if you want to keep constant pressure up (attacking and strategic bombing. Formosa is a POW camp. Time to restock the larder and sharpen the sword. Logistics, Logistics, Logistics. Time to bring up a million tons of supply. If John wants to try and push you back good luck. You have time and considering your position you didn't pay a huge price in ships and planes to get it. Good work loading Rangoon up. Set some HQ's along the trail and push supply forward. Get those Chinese infantry units up to 1943 infantry and they will be hard to stop. No rush here, play to the Allied Strengths. Supply.

[Canoerebel]

Yes, logistics is the name of the game.

To this point, I've done pretty well, I think. I'm 14 months into the deep Allied offensives, Death Star hasn't been at Pearl or any other major port behind the lines since October '43, and there have been six sequential major operations from Horn Island to Foochow. Over that span, I haven't run out of supply or fuel despite the difficulties of a very long and narrow LOC.

[Lowpe]

In hindsight, do you wish you would have had a CV clash around Camh Ran Bay a little while back?

My guess is no, you would gladly trade a few sunk Japanese carriers and instead have an early pristine invasion of China. Am I right?

[Canoerebel]

Night bombing is allowed beginning August 16 - a week from tomorrow's turn. I've been working two angles towards that end:

1) moving night fighters so that I can cover Boela (damaged CV Lexington) and Manila (main fleet base). I think John has notions for night bombing, and I think Lexington is at the top of the list. By the 15th, I should have eight or more night bomber squadrons at Boela or nearby.

2) Foochow airfield went to level 7 today, so Superfort missions are feasible (and the field may go to 8 by the 15th). The normal range of B-29s at Foochow extends to Tokyo and other nice bases, so John will have a lot of territory to cover, and I have notion of my own.

[Canoerebel]

John is right about the low cost of Peep Show, to this point. Here's the balance sheet:

Credits: Foochow and Tsinkiang taken, Amoy about to be; Foochow airfield built from level 3 to 7; Foochow within Normal B-29 range of Tokyo and all points south; two mixed brigades and a rebuilding enemy division (6th) beat up; enemy pulling divisions out of Indochina and weakening Chinese MLR in response to threat; all Formosa airfields damaged or closed; many hundreds of enemy aircraft destroyed in the air or on the ground; a smattering of enemy riff-raff ships sunk; Japanese Empire nearly cut in two now; pressure increasing on John.

Debits: Two excellent transports [an APA and and LSI(L)] sunk; several hundred Allied fighters and bombers lost during the air war over Formosa (the Allies had a small advantage in numbers until naval bombardments of Formosa commenced, which tipped things decisively in favor of the Allies.

By my reckoning, Peep Show has been a tremendous success to this point. But this has been Peep Show, Part I. Part II will be the invasion of Formosa.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

In hindsight, do you wish you would have had a CV clash around Camh Ran Bay a little while back?

My guess is no, you would gladly trade a few sunk Japanese carriers and instead have an early pristine invasion of China. Am I right?

That's right, Jeff. It was tempting and it would've paid dividends in the future, but delaying gratification in order to get Peep Show ashore and in good shape proved more beneficial.

[Canoerebel]

The merchantmen that will rendezvous with Death Star in the DEI will be carrying at least 467k supplies and 381k fuel. (TKs and AOs currently disbanded at Manila have 81k fuel.)

Death Star will refuel in the DEI, where there's 103k fuel in reserve at Boela and Sorong. Those bases have 502k supply. And Miri has 85k fuel.

Australia is the strategic reserve, currently with 1,221,000 supplies and 1,111,000 fuel.

[MakeeLearn]

Yes, logistics is the name of the game.

To this point, I've done pretty well, I think. I'm 14 months into the deep Allied offensives, Death Star hasn't been at Pearl or any other major port behind the lines since October '43,

The merchantmen that will rendezvous with Death Star in the DEI will be carrying at least 467k supplies...

ABOUT DAMN TIME !!!!

The ice cream is running low, the magazines and papers are disappearing and we are beginning to doubt that there was ever a female of our species.

[Lokasenna]

I mean, is it really logistics if you just throw a few hundred xAKs with supplies/fuel at a base? [:'(]

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Japan has to keep a garrison, if it falls below the garrison requirement then a roll is made -- so it isn't automatic. It has nothing to do with the amount of your troops present.

I have no clue what your two other options are, but I suspect activating the Soviets early would be the toughest as you need to destroy/disable enough AV to cause Japan to drop below the garrison requirement, and then get the die roll. That is what makes the strategy attractive.[:)]

However, with an active China....

Yeah, from forum discussions and experiments about five months ago the consensus was that "Garrison Requirement" means "Assigned to Kwantung Army". They do not have to be in Manchuria (other than by artificial House Rule on border crossing). So the only way to get the "Garrison Level" down is by destroying AV in the Kwantung Army. I did this in a game against the AI and at the point the Soviets activated I checked the Japanese Intel screen which said the Kwantung army was just a few points above 6000. Activation is not automatic below 8000, it's a die roll/probability equation.

John probably has removed all of the excess garrison, AA, A/T and artillery from Kwantung Army already, making the rest softer than usual.

I think turn 800? or maybe 900? is the trigger for Soviet Intervention that is I believe the 8000 threshold is not even checked before then ..
thus has anyone tested or experienced an activation before these thresholds? I can say my third game activated on a magic number after engaging IJ in China ..

Yes, activation is possible by reducing the Manchukuo garrison below 8000 - see my comment about activation just above 6000 AV. No idea which turn, but it was in late 1943 IIRC. I have also forced activation on Turn 1 by having a Japanese recon aircraft fly a mission over a Soviet base, just to see if it would work.